Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov that Minsk does not want to be drawn into the war against Ukraine, saying he had repeatedly discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin why Belarus did not want to fight Ukrainians, BelTA reported on June 25.

Belarus, Russia: Lukashenko Says Belarus Does Not Want To Fight Ukraine

Europe

Armenia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Economics

Energy

Politics

Leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia issued a joint statement calling for Armenia to hold a referendum on whether to pursue EU membership or remain in the Eurasian Economic Union, and asking their governments to report by December on the possible consequences of suspending the EAEU treaty's application to Armenia, TASS reported on May 29.

Armenia: EAEU Leaders Threaten To Review Armenia's Membership Amid EU Bid

Lithuania

Poland

Belarus began mass snap reserve call-ups in its western Grodno region bordering Poland and Lithuania as part of an unscheduled combat readiness inspection, with thousands reportedly summoned on hours' notice and transported to training grounds, Charter'97 reported on Feb. 23.

Belarus: Snap Reserve Call-Ups Near NATO Borders

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk said Russia will permanently strengthen customs-style controls on goods imported from fellow members of the Eurasian Economic Union, or EAEU, Inbusiness.kz reported on Feb. 19.

Russia, EAEU: Moscow To Impose Permanent Border Controls Within EAEU

Uzbekistan

Leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union on Dec. 21 approved a "differentiated" framework for a common financial market and initiated customs data exchange negotiations with Uzbekistan during the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Russia: Moscow Scraps Plans for Common Eurasian Financial Market

Lithuania temporarily closed Vilnius Airport and several border crossings with Belarus on Oct. 26 after multiple helium balloons entered its airspace, marking the fourth such incident in a week, Reuters reported on Oct. 27.

Lithuania, Belarus: Lithuania To Down Smuggler Balloons Amid Rising Border Tensions With Belarus

China

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced Poland will reopen all border crossings with Belarus at midnight on Sept. 25, ending a closure that had blocked up to 90% of China-EU overland rail cargo for weeks, Reuters reported on Sept. 23.

Poland, Belarus: Poland To Reopen Belarus Border, Restoring China-EU Rail Traffic After Major Disruption

United States

U.S. envoy John Coale announced in Minsk that Washington lifted sanctions on Belarusian airline Belavia on direct instructions from U.S. President Donald Trump and pledged to work toward reopening the U.S. Embassy, Reuters reported on Sept. 11.

Belarus, U.S.: Trump Lifts Belavia Sanctions as Minsk Frees Prisoners in Bid for Rapprochement

Assessments

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

Columns

On Geopolitics

Germany

Finland

Latvia

Denmark

Estonia

Sweden

Norway

A view in Rostock, Germany, of the first exit of warships for the NATO exercise BALTOPS in the Baltic Sea on June 5, 2025. 

In response to Russian aggression, NATO is seeking to establish strategic control over the Baltic Sea via rearmament and more assertive posturing, creating an environment where the risk of miscalculation grows exponentially.

Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

Vietnam

Azerbaijan

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (L) address journalists following their talks in Moscow, Russia, on May 10, 2025, during celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. 

Vietnam is strengthening its relationships with Eurasian countries, especially Russia, as it looks to further diversify economic and energy ties away from great powers amid an unstable geopolitical landscape.

Russia-Vietnam Ties Are Set To Grow Following Lam's Eurasia Tour

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Taiwan

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko gives a speech during his annual address to the Belarusian People and the National Assembly in Minsk on Jan. 28, 2022.

The upcoming All-Belarusian People's Assembly is poised to deepen Belarus' ties with Russia while also laying the groundwork for President Lukashenko's eventual succession process.

In Belarus, a Congress Will Lock in Integration With Russia -- and Lukashenko's Legacy

Sub-Saharan Africa

North Macedonia

Georgia

India

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identity and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Media

Podcasts

What we know about the plane crash that likely killed Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin.


Essential Geopolitics: Prigozhin's Possible Death, the Future of the Wagner Group and Geopolitics in Belarus

Snapshots

A woman sits by the entrance to the GUM department store in central Minsk on February 14, 2023.

Though Belarus is showing economic recovery in the short term, a number of structural issues will undermine its long-term growth prospects.

Belarus' Tentative Recovery Won’t Ensure Future Growth -– Or Kick-Start the Opposition

Romania

A Polish soldier stands by anti-tank obstacles by the metal wall constructed at the Belarussian border in Bialowieza, Poland, on July 08, 2023. 

In Romania's case, Russian aggression is more likely to occur by accident. But in Poland, such aggression would have higher chance of escalation because it'd likely be by design.

Russia's Activities Near Romania and Poland Risk Sparking Another NATO Crisis

Burkina Faso

Central African Republic

Mali

Sudan

Libya

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

Members of Wagner Group on June 24, 2023, sit on a tank in a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don.

The dismantlement of Russia's Wagner Group will strengthen the Kremlin's ability to handle the war and conduct personnel changes that could impact Russia's strategy in Ukraine in the long run.

Putin Uses Prigozhin's 'Betrayal' to Strengthen His Grip on Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) meets with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in Sochi, Russia, on Sept. 26, 2022. 

Moscow's grip on Minsk will likely tighten in the years ahead, threatening Belarusian President Lukashenko and his country's sovereignty.

What's Ahead for Belarus-Russia Integration?

Belarus is a landlocked country located in Eastern Europe. The country is almost entirely flat with little in terms of geographic barriers or protective features. Belarus' borders to the east with Russia and to the west with Poland and Lithuania are virtually wide open. One exception though is the Pripet Marshes on its southern border with Ukraine. Due to the lack of these barriers and the presence of more powerful states in the region, Belarus has been historically a difficult independent state to sustain.    Belarus sits in the North European Plain, the geopolitical superhighway of Europe. This is the area that has historically been the prominent invasion route of European powers like Germany and France into Russia and vice versa. Russia took control of Belarus from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the 18th century, incorporating it into the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union.     Belarus was subject to Nazi occupation during WWII, in which the country lost more than 25 percent of its population, but then was reincorporated into the Soviet Union with the Germans’ defeat.The 20 years of independence since the fall of the Soviet Union is the longest Belarus has known in its modern history, but it still in many ways serves as a de facto buffer state between Russia and Europe.    Belarus was one of the most industrialized republics of the Soviet Union, and it still maintains a large industrial base centered in its capital city of Minsk. Belarus has fertile agricultural lands and is one of the world's leading producers of potash and other fertilizers. It is also a key trade and transit hub for Russian energy to Europe, making the country an enduring focus of competition between Russia and the West.

Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

The Politics of Pipelines

Echoes of the Cold War

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

SITUATION REPORTS

Belarus, Russia: Lukashenko Says Belarus Does Not Want To Fight Ukraine

Armenia: EAEU Leaders Threaten To Review Armenia's Membership Amid EU Bid

Belarus: Snap Reserve Call-Ups Near NATO Borders

Russia, EAEU: Moscow To Impose Permanent Border Controls Within EAEU

Russia: Moscow Scraps Plans for Common Eurasian Financial Market

Lithuania, Belarus: Lithuania To Down Smuggler Balloons Amid Rising Border Tensions With Belarus

Poland, Belarus: Poland To Reopen Belarus Border, Restoring China-EU Rail Traffic After Major Disruption

Belarus, U.S.: Trump Lifts Belavia Sanctions as Minsk Frees Prisoners in Bid for Rapprochement

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