Ukraine

Russia

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A Russian offensive in the Ukrainian-occupied Korenevsky and Sudzhansky districts of Russia's Kursk region resulted in Ukrainian troops losing the largest piece of their salient in the region since Sept. 14, Agentstvo reported on Oct. 11.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Conducts Largest Attack on Kursk Salient in Over a Month

Mali

A column of armed vehicles from the Malian army and Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group turned back without a fight from an operation against the northern town of Tinzaouaten, which is held by Tuareg rebels of the Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad, or CSP-DPA, Jeune Afrique reported on Oct. 10.

Mali: Pro-Government Military Operation Turns Back From Tinzaouaten

Russian cyber threat groups are increasingly engaging in cyberespionage campaigns rather than disruptive cyberattacks in Ukraine in an effort to enable Russian battlefield gains, U.S. National Security Agency official Dave Luber claimed during a conference on Oct. 9.

Ukraine: Russian Cyber Activity Shifting From Disruptive Attacks to Espionage, Says Top U.S. Official

North Korea

South Korea

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun told parliamentarians during a hearing that North Korea is highly likely to deploy members of its regular armed forces to Ukraine in support of Russia, The Moscow Times reported on Oct. 8.

North Korea, Russia: Pyongyang Deploys Troops to Ukraine in Support of Russia

Pakistan

Economics

Pakistan's Privatization Minister Abdul Aleem Khan signed multiple memorandums of understanding with Russian officials to enhance bilateral trade and investment and increase imports and exports of food items, Arab News published on Oct. 3. 

Pakistan, Russia: Agreements Enhance Bilateral Trade, Establish Barter Trade Arrangement

United Kingdom

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The United Kingdom's National Crime Agency sanctioned 16 members of the Russian cybercriminal group Evil Corp and released new details about the gang's operations and ties to the Russian government, BBC reported on Oct. 1.

Russia: U.K. Sanctions Evil Corp Members and Reveals Ties to Russian Government and LockBit

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed into law bills suspending criminal proceedings against suspects, criminal defendants and convicts in exchange for their participation in the Russia-Ukraine war through their mobilization or contract service, RBC Group reported on Oct. 2.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Signs Law Suspending Criminal Proceedings for Serving in War

United States

China

Europe

European intelligence sources claim that Russian arms producer IEMZ Kupol was working with local experts to produce in China a new long-range attack drone, the Garpiya-3 (G3), for use on the Ukrainian battlefield, according to Reuters on Sept. 25.

China, Russia: Chinese Factory Producing Attack Drones for Russia

Snapshots

Moldova

Moldovan President Maya Sandu delivers a speech in Chisinau on Sept. 20, 2024, during a rally to launch her reelection campaign.

Arguably the biggest threat to Moldova's pro-European trajectory comes not from the two impending Oct. 20 votes themselves, but how the results impact the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

Previewing Moldova's Presidential Race and Referendum on EU Membership

Assessments

Mozambique

Rwanda

Frelimo electoral posters are plastered on a wall in Maputo, Mozambique, on Aug. 24, 2024, the first day of the presidential campaign season ahead of the general election on Oct. 9, 2024.

Energy

Global Elections

Mozambique's upcoming general election will likely bring another five years of Frelimo rule, though an independent candidate is drawing LNG contracts to the forefront of the campaign season.

Mozambique's General Election Brings LNG Contracts Centerstage

A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.

The changes aim to threaten the West by making even more explicit Moscow's preexisting ability to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian attacks. But the move won't stop Western efforts to maintain support for Ukraine.

With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine

A man looks at the road blocked by striped tape on December 13, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine, following two nights of ballistic missile attacks on the city.

Ukraine faces its most challenging post-invasion winter yet due to intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure that may drive more Ukrainians to flee and worsen the country's manpower shortage.

Ukraine Faces Harshest Winter Yet Amid Intensified Russian Attacks on Energy Infrastructure

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine on June 15, 2024, in Lucerne, Switzerland. 

If elected U.S. president, Harris would likely initially maintain Biden's approach to Ukraine, but new White House officials, political pressure and events on the battlefield could change her administration's policies and strategy.

How Could a Harris Presidency Impact the War in Ukraine?

Germany

France

Italy

A Russian warship transits the Neva River in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

Russia's risk tolerance for physical and cyber operations against Western targets appears to be increasing, raising the likelihood of more disruptive and/or violent attacks.

A More Brazen Russia Slowly Raises the Specter of a NATO Confrontation

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Cote d'Ivoire

Kenya

Niger

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Libya

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Mongolia

Supporters attend a campaign event for the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in Erfurt, eastern Germany, on Aug. 29, 2024, ahead of upcoming regional elections.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Africa-China Summit, State Elections in Eastern Germany

Turkey

Cambodia

Japan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Afghanistan

The Geopolitics of Water

The escalating impacts of climate change and water scarcity will inflame tensions between Central Asian countries, raising the risk of violent state conflict in the coming decades. 

The Looming Threat of Central Asian 'Water Wars'

Australia

Samoa

Federated States of Micronesia

Fiji

Kiribati

Marshall Islands

Nauru

New Zealand

Palau

Papua New Guinea

Solomon Islands

Tonga

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds a flag during a ceremony on Ukraine's Independence Day on Aug. 24, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine. 

The Weekly Rundown: Gaza Cease-Fire Talks Resume, Ukraine Observes Third Post-Invasion Independence Day

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives for a working session on the second day of the G-7 summit in Schloss Elmau, Germany, on June 27, 2022. 

The trip is likely aimed at addressing backlash from the prime minister's recent visit to Russia, as India tries to mitigate Western criticism and reinforce its neutrality in the Ukraine conflict.

Modi's Upcoming Visit to Ukraine Reflects India's Balancing Act

Columns

On Geopolitics

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

<p>Despite being the largest country in the world by area, the Russian Federation occupies territory that is indefensible and unforgiving. The core of Russia, running from the Volga grain belts up through Moscow proper to the Baltic Sea, lacks any natural features to fortify it from attack. This is why the country has traditionally anchored its territory to major geographic barriers far from its core in an attempt to keep foreign powers distant. As a result, Russia has inevitably had to reach east across the frozen tundra of Siberia to the Pacific Ocean, southeast to the Tien Shen mountains of Central Asia, south to the Caucasus Mountains bordering Iran and Turkey, and finally west to the Carpathian Mountains in Central Europe. But, there is one major hole in this geographic expanse: The Northern European plane. The Northern European plane is a gap between the Carpathian Mountains and the Baltic sea which, at its narrowest, is 480 kilometers (300 miles) across. This narrow point, referred to as the Polish funnel, lies just West of Warsaw and reaches down Krakow in the south. Russia has faced three major attackers along this axis; Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler. Most recently, the expansion of NATO and the European Union into Central and Eastern Europe has raised Russian hackles. Moscow would much prefer to control the lands between Russia and the Polish funnel &mdash; pushing as far west as possible &mdash; knowing full well that once an attacker has passed that narrow chokepoint, it is an open march to Russia&#39;s heartland. For this reason, Moscow seeks to occupy or influence its borderlands, or at the very least, maintain their neutrality. Looking beyond its indefensible borders and largely hollow interior, Russia boasts a diverse population of 144,463,450 people and a powerful military. These armed forces, backed by an autocratic political system, help protect the country&#39;s unwieldy land mass. Russia&#39;s economy is inherently fragile and highly dependent on commodity exports ranging from grain to energy. The country is traditionally at its most powerful when a strong, heavy-handed leader is in charge, such as current Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, though, the Kremlin must continually deal with internal political divisions, rising ethnic tensions and regional dissidence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Conducts Largest Attack on Kursk Salient in Over a Month

Mali: Pro-Government Military Operation Turns Back From Tinzaouaten

Ukraine: Russian Cyber Activity Shifting From Disruptive Attacks to Espionage, Says Top U.S. Official

North Korea, Russia: Pyongyang Deploys Troops to Ukraine in Support of Russia

Pakistan, Russia: Agreements Enhance Bilateral Trade, Establish Barter Trade Arrangement

Russia: U.K. Sanctions Evil Corp Members and Reveals Ties to Russian Government and LockBit

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Signs Law Suspending Criminal Proceedings for Serving in War

China, Russia: Chinese Factory Producing Attack Drones for Russia

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