Ukraine

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Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A Russian ballistic missile struck a private training ground in the Kyiv region's Bucha district during a defense industry exhibition, killing at least 10 people and injuring over 100 others, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 24.

Ukraine, Russia: Russia Strikes Defense Exhibition Near Kyiv in Daylight

Mali

Togo

A large convoy of Russian military vehicles arriving from the Togolese port of Lome has crossed the Mali-Burkina Faso border and is headed to Bamako, Jeune Afrique reported on July 23.

West Africa: Russia's Africa Corps Secures First Military Shipment to Mali Through Togo

United States

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held a 35-minute meeting on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' ministerial gathering in Manila, Philippines, The Guardian reported on July 23.

U.S., Russia, Ukraine: Rubio-Lavrov Meeting in Manila Predictably Yields No Breakthrough

Europe

Economics

EU ambassadors approved the bloc's 21st sanctions package against Russia on July 23, its largest in four years with 218 listings, after granting Greece a renewable one-year exemption allowing EU companies to continue shipping Russian liquefied natural gas to third countries, Reuters reported the same day.

EU: Bloc Agrees to Watered-Down 21st Russia Sanctions Package

The United States is considering taking military action in Mali against al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, The Washington Post reported on July 22, citing statements from current and former officials of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. 

Mali: Trump Administration Eyes Military Action Against JNIM

Ukrainian drones struck Wildberries warehouses in Krasnodar and Nevinnomyssk, injuring several workers and extending a series of attacks on Russia's largest online retailer, Reuters reported on July 22. 

Russia, Ukraine: Strikes on Russian Online Retailer Drag Russia's Consumer Economy Into the War

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a fresh round of meetings with top military commanders amid media reports that he was considering dismissing Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, in the face of protests demanding Syrskyi's removal and broader military reform, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 20.

Ukraine: Zelensky Meets His Top Brass, Denying His Army Chief Is Out

China

Ukraine and the European Union signed a deal to establish joint drone projects and expand production by combining Ukrainian battlefield expertise with European financing and industrial capacity, Reuters reported on July 15.

Ukraine, EU: Drone Deal Will Expand Production and Scale Combat-Tested Technology

Assessments

Peru

Iran

Israel

United Kingdom

A couple rides past Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles displayed at Azadi Square in Tehran on July 24.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Likely U.S. Escalation in Iran, Zelensky Travels to Washington

Ukrainian servicemen maintain a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region on May 27 in Pokrovsk, Ukraine.

With grinding ground offensives yielding minimal gains at a severe human cost, Moscow is likely to escalate devastating aerial strikes designed to cripple critical infrastructure and force Kyiv into concessions.


What the Fall of Kostiantynivka Would Mean for the Ukraine War 

Snapshots

People gather for a second consecutive day of protests in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2026, following the controversial dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelensky's potentially imminent decision to dismiss the army chief under mounting public pressure would weaken his authority, while prolonged turmoil could further strain Ukraine's war effort.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Energy

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

Lebanon

Indonesia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

France

ASEAN leaders hold hands for a group photo during the opening ceremony of the 48th ASEAN summit in Cebu, central Philippines on May 8, 2026. 

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Tensions Remain High, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet With Myanmar

Media

Cuba

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Third-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Belarus

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

Botswana

Lesotho

Namibia

South Africa

Eswatini

Colombia

Vessels at anchorage June 18 in Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 is highly likely to remain in effect over the coming week, and negotiations toward a final deal will begin.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Iranian Talks, Colombia's Presidential Runoff

North Korea

Armenia

A banner depicting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on June 3 in Tehran. There will be an elevated risk of sporadic U.S.-Iran clashes over the next week, as no signs of a diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations on a memorandum of understanding have emerged.

The Weekly Rundown: Armenian Elections, Xi Goes to North Korea

Azerbaijan

Thousands of Armenians participate in a rally in Yerevan's Republic Square on May 26, 2024. 

Prime Minister Pashinyan's likely reelection will empower him to finalize a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and deepen ties with the West, though Russian economic pressure and domestic opposition to constitutional changes could undermine these efforts.

What's at Stake in Armenia's Upcoming Election

Turkey

A window view from Turkey's Eastern Express train. 

Improved relations could unlock strategic and economic benefits for both countries, especially if their border is reopened, though Russia's entrenched influence in Armenia remains a key constraint.

Russian Coercion Will Constrain Budding Turkey-Armenia Rapprochement

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

<p>Despite being the largest country in the world by area, the Russian Federation occupies territory that is indefensible and unforgiving. The core of Russia, running from the Volga grain belts up through Moscow proper to the Baltic Sea, lacks any natural features to fortify it from attack. This is why the country has traditionally anchored its territory to major geographic barriers far from its core in an attempt to keep foreign powers distant. As a result, Russia has inevitably had to reach east across the frozen tundra of Siberia to the Pacific Ocean, southeast to the Tien Shen mountains of Central Asia, south to the Caucasus Mountains bordering Iran and Turkey, and finally west to the Carpathian Mountains in Central Europe. But, there is one major hole in this geographic expanse: The Northern European plane. The Northern European plane is a gap between the Carpathian Mountains and the Baltic sea which, at its narrowest, is 480 kilometers (300 miles) across. This narrow point, referred to as the Polish funnel, lies just West of Warsaw and reaches down Krakow in the south. Russia has faced three major attackers along this axis; Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler. Most recently, the expansion of NATO and the European Union into Central and Eastern Europe has raised Russian hackles. Moscow would much prefer to control the lands between Russia and the Polish funnel &mdash; pushing as far west as possible &mdash; knowing full well that once an attacker has passed that narrow chokepoint, it is an open march to Russia&#39;s heartland. For this reason, Moscow seeks to occupy or influence its borderlands, or at the very least, maintain their neutrality. Looking beyond its indefensible borders and largely hollow interior, Russia boasts a diverse population of 144,463,450 people and a powerful military. These armed forces, backed by an autocratic political system, help protect the country&#39;s unwieldy land mass. Russia&#39;s economy is inherently fragile and highly dependent on commodity exports ranging from grain to energy. The country is traditionally at its most powerful when a strong, heavy-handed leader is in charge, such as current Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, though, the Kremlin must continually deal with internal political divisions, rising ethnic tensions and regional dissidence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, Russia: Russia Strikes Defense Exhibition Near Kyiv in Daylight

West Africa: Russia's Africa Corps Secures First Military Shipment to Mali Through Togo

U.S., Russia, Ukraine: Rubio-Lavrov Meeting in Manila Predictably Yields No Breakthrough

EU: Bloc Agrees to Watered-Down 21st Russia Sanctions Package

Mali: Trump Administration Eyes Military Action Against JNIM

Russia, Ukraine: Strikes on Russian Online Retailer Drag Russia's Consumer Economy Into the War

Ukraine: Zelensky Meets His Top Brass, Denying His Army Chief Is Out

Ukraine, EU: Drone Deal Will Expand Production and Scale Combat-Tested Technology

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