Lithuania

Poland

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

Military & Security

Belarus began mass snap reserve call-ups in its western Grodno region bordering Poland and Lithuania as part of an unscheduled combat readiness inspection, with thousands reportedly summoned on hours' notice and transported to training grounds, Charter'97 reported on Feb. 23.

Belarus: Snap Reserve Call-Ups Near NATO Borders

United States

China

Japan

North Korea

South Korea

Politics

North Korea's Workers' Party reelected Kim Jong Un as general secretary at its ongoing ninth Party congress, which has so far focused on strengthening North Korea's "war deterrence" centered on nuclear weapons capacity, Yonhap News Agency reported on Feb. 23. 

North Korea: Kim Reaffirmed as Party Chief, Nuclear Policy Entrenched

Europe

Hungary

Economics

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Hungary vetoed approval of a 90-billion-euro ($106-billion) emergency loan for Ukraine as well as a new sanctions package against Russia, Politico reported Feb. 23. 

EU, Hungary, Russia, Ukraine: Hungary Blocks EU Ukraine Loan and Russia Sanctions 

Vietnam

North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong Un gave a speech on Feb. 20 in Pyongyang to open the Workers' Party of Korea's quinquennial party congress, which North Korea's KCNA said began on Feb. 19.

North Korea: Kim Commences Quinquennial Party Congress

Australia

Mongolia

Russia's aluminum giant Rusal requested enforcement measures in its 100 billion ruble ($1.1 billion) claim against British-Australian mining company Rio Tinto, including seizure of a stake in an unnamed company widely believed to be Rio Tinto's 66% holding in Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi copper project, Kommersant reported on Feb. 20, citing a Russian appellate court filing.

Russia, Mongolia: Russian Court Ruling Introduces Uncertainty in Mongolian Copper Mine

Armenia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk said Russia will permanently strengthen customs-style controls on goods imported from fellow members of the Eurasian Economic Union, or EAEU, Inbusiness.kz reported on Feb. 19.

Russia, EAEU: Moscow To Impose Permanent Border Controls Within EAEU

The second day of U.S.-mediated Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva, Switzerland, ended after roughly two hours, Reuters reported on Feb. 18.

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Geneva Talks Conclude With Kremlin Demands Unchanged

Russian, Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators convened in Geneva, Switzerland, for two days of U.S.-mediated talks, Reuters reported on Feb. 17.

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Geneva Talks Open With Territorial Divide Intact

Assessments

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Indonesia

Slovakia

India

U.S. President Donald Trump (C) holds up his signature on the founding charter of the Board of Peace among other world leaders at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 22 in Davos, Switzerland.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Board of Peace Convenes, Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks in Geneva

Snapshots

United Arab Emirates

Emirati flags on Feb. 4 in Abu Dhabi, UAE. On Feb. 4-5, delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States held a second round of trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates.

The talks are unlikely to produce a near-term settlement, as Russia will continue to press its territorial demands while using diplomacy to manage sanctions pressure and build leverage ahead of a spring-summer offensive.

The Limits of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks

Russian soldiers wear chemical protection suits as they stand next to a military fueler on the base of a prime mover of Russian Topol intercontinental ballistic missile during a training session at the Serpukhov's military missile forces research institute some 100km outside Moscow on April 6, 2010.

U.S.-China Relations

Over time, this will intensify an ongoing buildup of nuclear capabilities across the globe and make crises involving nuclear powers more unpredictable and prone to miscalculations. 


Implications of the Last Major U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreement's Expiration

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a meeting with European national security advisors in Kyiv on Jan. 3, 2026. 

The reshuffle seeks to strengthen Zelensky's negotiating position and mitigate the political fallout from a likely unfavorable peace deal amid weakening Western support and Russia's continued battlefield advances.

Ukraine's Government Reshuffle Signals Preparation for a Tough Peace Deal

Greenland

Denmark

France

Switzerland

A sniper police officer on the Congress hotel during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum on Jan. 24, 2025, in the Alpine resort of Davos, Switzerland.

The Weekly Rundown: Davos, Europe Steps Up Greenland Deployments

Romania

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu (R) and Romanian President Nicusor Dan on June 10, 2025, in Chisinau, Moldova. Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Maia Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Romanian-Moldovan Unification Remains Unlikely, Despite Moldovan President's Endorsement

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Iran

Taiwan

Norway

Pakistan

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Social Issues

U.S.-Iran Relations

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Myanmar

Philippines

Thailand

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Eurasia

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

<p>Despite being the largest country in the world by area, the Russian Federation occupies territory that is indefensible and unforgiving. The core of Russia, running from the Volga grain belts up through Moscow proper to the Baltic Sea, lacks any natural features to fortify it from attack. This is why the country has traditionally anchored its territory to major geographic barriers far from its core in an attempt to keep foreign powers distant. As a result, Russia has inevitably had to reach east across the frozen tundra of Siberia to the Pacific Ocean, southeast to the Tien Shen mountains of Central Asia, south to the Caucasus Mountains bordering Iran and Turkey, and finally west to the Carpathian Mountains in Central Europe. But, there is one major hole in this geographic expanse: The Northern European plane. The Northern European plane is a gap between the Carpathian Mountains and the Baltic sea which, at its narrowest, is 480 kilometers (300 miles) across. This narrow point, referred to as the Polish funnel, lies just West of Warsaw and reaches down Krakow in the south. Russia has faced three major attackers along this axis; Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler. Most recently, the expansion of NATO and the European Union into Central and Eastern Europe has raised Russian hackles. Moscow would much prefer to control the lands between Russia and the Polish funnel &mdash; pushing as far west as possible &mdash; knowing full well that once an attacker has passed that narrow chokepoint, it is an open march to Russia&#39;s heartland. For this reason, Moscow seeks to occupy or influence its borderlands, or at the very least, maintain their neutrality. Looking beyond its indefensible borders and largely hollow interior, Russia boasts a diverse population of 144,463,450 people and a powerful military. These armed forces, backed by an autocratic political system, help protect the country&#39;s unwieldy land mass. Russia&#39;s economy is inherently fragile and highly dependent on commodity exports ranging from grain to energy. The country is traditionally at its most powerful when a strong, heavy-handed leader is in charge, such as current Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, though, the Kremlin must continually deal with internal political divisions, rising ethnic tensions and regional dissidence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Belarus: Snap Reserve Call-Ups Near NATO Borders

North Korea: Kim Reaffirmed as Party Chief, Nuclear Policy Entrenched

EU, Hungary, Russia, Ukraine: Hungary Blocks EU Ukraine Loan and Russia Sanctions

North Korea: Kim Commences Quinquennial Party Congress

Russia, Mongolia: Russian Court Ruling Introduces Uncertainty in Mongolian Copper Mine

Russia, EAEU: Moscow To Impose Permanent Border Controls Within EAEU

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Geneva Talks Conclude With Kremlin Demands Unchanged

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Geneva Talks Open With Territorial Divide Intact

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