Ukraine

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Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia launched another deadly attack on Kyiv, Ukraine, killing at least 15 people and injuring 56 others, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 6.

Russia, Ukraine: Another Deadly Strike on Kyiv Points to Hardening Kremlin War Line

Economics

Energy

Ukrainian drones hit Russia's Omsk oil refinery, which is located almost 1,500 miles (2,414 kilometers) east of Ukraine and deep inside Siberia, near Russia's border with Kazakhstan, Kommersant reported on July 6.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Crisis

Russia launched a large overnight missile and drone attack against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, killing at least 21 people in the capital and injuring more than 90, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported on July 2.

Russia, Ukraine: Deadly Russian Barrage on Kyiv Raises Pressure for More Air Defenses

In a June 26 letter to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Ukraine argued that it could legally attack Russian shadow fleet vessels, contending tankers transporting Russian oil and gas should be treated as ordinary commercial ships, given their role in generating revenue for Russia's war effort, the Financial Times reported June 30.

Ukraine, Russia: IMO Dispute Will Increase Shadow Fleet Scrutiny

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia may import fuel if Moscow reaches supply agreements at acceptable prices, calling imports another step toward stabilizing the domestic market and reducing panic demand, TASS reported June 30.

Russia: Kremlin Confirms Fuel Import Talks as Ukrainian Strikes Strain Supplies

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was ready to continue talks with U.S. envoys on ending the war in Ukraine but rejected proposals for a mutual halt to long-range strikes and for limiting fighting to the four occupied Ukrainian regions, Bloomberg reported June 28.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Admits Ukrainian Strikes Are Causing Fuel Shortages, but Rejects Truce Proposal

Belarus

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov that Minsk does not want to be drawn into the war against Ukraine, saying he had repeatedly discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin why Belarus did not want to fight Ukrainians, BelTA reported on June 25.

Belarus, Russia: Lukashenko Says Belarus Does Not Want To Fight Ukraine

Citing Ukrainian intelligence, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had begun pulling air defense systems from other regions and from occupied Ukrainian territory to reinforce the defense of Moscow and the Kerch Bridge, which links Crimea to Russia, Interfax-Ukraine reported on June 24.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Reallocates Air Defenses To Protect Capital and Kerch Bridge

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Iran

Forecast Webcast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Third-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Assessments

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

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Eswatini

Colombia

Vessels at anchorage June 18 in Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 is highly likely to remain in effect over the coming week, and negotiations toward a final deal will begin.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Iranian Talks, Colombia's Presidential Runoff

Peru

Israel

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China

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Armenia

A banner depicting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on June 3 in Tehran. There will be an elevated risk of sporadic U.S.-Iran clashes over the next week, as no signs of a diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations on a memorandum of understanding have emerged.

The Weekly Rundown: Armenian Elections, Xi Goes to North Korea

Azerbaijan

Thousands of Armenians participate in a rally in Yerevan's Republic Square on May 26, 2024. 

Prime Minister Pashinyan's likely reelection will empower him to finalize a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and deepen ties with the West, though Russian economic pressure and domestic opposition to constitutional changes could undermine these efforts.

What's at Stake in Armenia's Upcoming Election

Turkey

A window view from Turkey's Eastern Express train. 

Improved relations could unlock strategic and economic benefits for both countries, especially if their border is reopened, though Russia's entrenched influence in Armenia remains a key constraint.

Russian Coercion Will Constrain Budding Turkey-Armenia Rapprochement

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

Japan

Philippines

Kazakhstan

India

A cargo ship anchored May 16 in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran. Major gaps in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program persist, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will remain fragile over the next week.

The Weekly Rundown: Rubio Visits India, a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

A view taken on Dec. 13, 2023, shows pumping units at the grounds of a fuel tank farm of Russia's oil pipeline giant Transneft.

The intensifying drone strikes are unlikely to trigger an oil sector crisis or alter Moscow's war calculus, but they will financially drain Russian oil companies, even as high prices buoy the Kremlin's revenues.

Assessing the Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Sector

Europe

EU and Ukrainian flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters on Feb. 23, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium.

While a European mediator may unblock frozen peace talks, a durable peace settlement remains unlikely until both Russia and Ukraine conclude that continued war is more costly than compromise.

The Limited Promise of EU Mediation in Ukraine Peace Talks

Mexico

South Korea

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sept. 3, 2025, in Beijing's Tiananmen Square.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Middle East, Putin Heads to Beijing

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Afghan protesters burn a Pakistani flag during a demonstration in Helmand Province in 2016.

Gains from the Afghan Taliban's growing regional ties will be hindered by enduring disputes, logistical constraints, infrastructure security risks, and Pakistan's possible absence from future multilateral engagements.

How the Afghan-Pakistani Conflict Is Redrawing Regional Relations

<p>Despite being the largest country in the world by area, the Russian Federation occupies territory that is indefensible and unforgiving. The core of Russia, running from the Volga grain belts up through Moscow proper to the Baltic Sea, lacks any natural features to fortify it from attack. This is why the country has traditionally anchored its territory to major geographic barriers far from its core in an attempt to keep foreign powers distant. As a result, Russia has inevitably had to reach east across the frozen tundra of Siberia to the Pacific Ocean, southeast to the Tien Shen mountains of Central Asia, south to the Caucasus Mountains bordering Iran and Turkey, and finally west to the Carpathian Mountains in Central Europe. But, there is one major hole in this geographic expanse: The Northern European plane. The Northern European plane is a gap between the Carpathian Mountains and the Baltic sea which, at its narrowest, is 480 kilometers (300 miles) across. This narrow point, referred to as the Polish funnel, lies just West of Warsaw and reaches down Krakow in the south. Russia has faced three major attackers along this axis; Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler. Most recently, the expansion of NATO and the European Union into Central and Eastern Europe has raised Russian hackles. Moscow would much prefer to control the lands between Russia and the Polish funnel &mdash; pushing as far west as possible &mdash; knowing full well that once an attacker has passed that narrow chokepoint, it is an open march to Russia&#39;s heartland. For this reason, Moscow seeks to occupy or influence its borderlands, or at the very least, maintain their neutrality. Looking beyond its indefensible borders and largely hollow interior, Russia boasts a diverse population of 144,463,450 people and a powerful military. These armed forces, backed by an autocratic political system, help protect the country&#39;s unwieldy land mass. Russia&#39;s economy is inherently fragile and highly dependent on commodity exports ranging from grain to energy. The country is traditionally at its most powerful when a strong, heavy-handed leader is in charge, such as current Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, though, the Kremlin must continually deal with internal political divisions, rising ethnic tensions and regional dissidence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Another Deadly Strike on Kyiv Points to Hardening Kremlin War Line

Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Crisis

Russia, Ukraine: Deadly Russian Barrage on Kyiv Raises Pressure for More Air Defenses

Ukraine, Russia: IMO Dispute Will Increase Shadow Fleet Scrutiny

Russia: Kremlin Confirms Fuel Import Talks as Ukrainian Strikes Strain Supplies

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Admits Ukrainian Strikes Are Causing Fuel Shortages, but Rejects Truce Proposal

Belarus, Russia: Lukashenko Says Belarus Does Not Want To Fight Ukraine

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Reallocates Air Defenses To Protect Capital and Kerch Bridge

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