China

Japan

North Korea

Russia

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 13 visited Etorofu/Iturup Island, one of the four Northern Territories claimed by Japan in the Kuril Islands, which Russia has occupied since just after World War II, Reuters reported.

Japan, Russia: Putin Visits Disputed Kurils, Highlights Worsening Ties

United States

Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv had conveyed new proposals for ending the Russia-Ukraine war to the United States, adding that Russia planned to mobilize several hundred thousand additional troops after its September parliamentary election, Reuters reported on Aug. 11.

Ukraine, Russia: Any Renewed U.S. Talks Are Unlikely To Produce a Near-Term Ceasefire 

Turkey

Moldova

Economics

Ukraine and Moldova are negotiating a rail corridor to move Ukrainian grain through Moldova to Romania's port of Constanta, with Kyiv seeking a 50% freight discount and Chisinau demanding volume guarantees in return, Reuters reported on Aug. 10.

Ukraine, Moldova: Rail Corridor Will Ease but Not Offset Grain Export Losses

United Kingdom

Chinese shipping company Sea Legend will launch the first regular container shipping service through the Arctic the week of Aug. 10, connecting China's port of Ningbo through the Northern Sea Route (north of Russia) to the United Kingdom's Felixstowe via weekly liner service during the summer months of low ice, roughly July or August through October, the Financial Times reported on Aug. 10. 

China: World's First Scheduled Arctic Container Service Commences

Israel

Syria

Russia will steadily hand over its two military bases in Syria -- its only military bases in the Middle East -- to the interim Syrian government by November, with the bases turned into joint Russo-Syrian training facilities, Syria's foreign ministry announced on Aug. 9.


Syria, Russia: Russia Slowly Winds Down Military Bases in Syria

Europe

New U.S. intelligence assessments concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO between fall 2026 and 2029 through actions ranging from cyberattacks and covert operations to a limited land incursion, The Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 6.

Russia, NATO: U.S. Intel Warns Putin Could Test NATO's Resolve

An explosive device planted in the car of Russian drone manufacturer Vladimir Tkachuk seriously wounded him and killed his driver near Yekaterinburg, marking the second attack on a Russian drone developer within a week, Reuters reported on Aug. 5.

Russia, Ukraine: Targeted Attacks Will Keep Russian War Officials at Risk

Lithuania

Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said the country's military intelligence uncovered indications that Russia was weighing unconventional kinetic attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure using Ukrainian-made drones to maintain plausible deniability, LRT reported Aug. 6.

Europe, Russia: Lithuania Warns of Possible Russian False-Flag Drone Attacks in the Baltics

Assessments

South Africa

Brazil

Iran

Iranian flags flutter along the corniche seafront of the port city of Bandar Abbas, Iran, on Aug. 10, 2026. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran MoU Set To Expire, SADC Summit

Snapshots

Latvia

Poland

Belarus

A Latvian border guard patrols along the fence at the Belarusian border near Krivanda, eastern Latvia, on Aug. 8, 2023.

Migration pressure orchestrated by Belarus is shifting toward Latvia and driving the adoption of sophisticated tunnel-smuggling tactics that will test EU resilience.

Belarus's Hybrid Migration Tactics Shift Pressure to Latvia

The parliament building is seen through a European flag during a demonstration against a judicial reform pushed by lawmakers of the ruling Law and Justice party on Jan. 23, 2020, in Warsaw, Poland. 

Social Issues

Poland's right-wing opposition parties remain well-positioned to win a majority in the 2027 general election, though growing fragmentation among these parties will hinder postelection coalition talks, potentially leading to a government that includes far-right elements.

How Poland's Right-Wing Split Alters the 2027 Election Landscape

Greenland

Denmark

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Greenland's large deposits of critical minerals make the island one of the few potential alternatives to Chinese supply chains, but material constraints and diplomatic disputes will obstruct large-scale production.

The West's Quest To Exploit Greenland's Critical Minerals

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (center) chats with U.S. senators before heading to a closed-door meeting at the U.S. Capitol on July 28, 2026. 

If enacted, the proposed bill would give Trump broad new authority to impose tariffs on major Russian oil buyers, but selective enforcement means it would unlikely compel Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

New U.S. Sanctions Bill Unlikely To Impact Russia's Oil Exports or War Strategy

Ethiopia

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

India

(From left to right) Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa attend a plenary session at the BRICS summit in Kazan on Oct. 24, 2024.

The bloc's push to develop an independent payment system for trade will not immediately undermine the U.S. dollar's global dominance, though it could reduce the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions.

The Implications of an Independent BRICS Payment System

Peru

A couple rides past Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles displayed at Azadi Square in Tehran on July 24.

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Weekly Rundown: A Likely U.S. Escalation in Iran, Zelensky Travels to Washington

Ukrainian servicemen maintain a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region on May 27 in Pokrovsk, Ukraine.

With grinding ground offensives yielding minimal gains at a severe human cost, Moscow is likely to escalate devastating aerial strikes designed to cripple critical infrastructure and force Kyiv into concessions.


What the Fall of Kostiantynivka Would Mean for the Ukraine War 

People gather for a second consecutive day of protests in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2026, following the controversial dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelensky's potentially imminent decision to dismiss the army chief under mounting public pressure would weaken his authority, while prolonged turmoil could further strain Ukraine's war effort.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

Lebanon

Indonesia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

France

ASEAN leaders hold hands for a group photo during the opening ceremony of the 48th ASEAN summit in Cebu, central Philippines on May 8, 2026. 

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Tensions Remain High, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet With Myanmar

Media

Cuba

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Third-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

<p>Despite being the largest country in the world by area, the Russian Federation occupies territory that is indefensible and unforgiving. The core of Russia, running from the Volga grain belts up through Moscow proper to the Baltic Sea, lacks any natural features to fortify it from attack. This is why the country has traditionally anchored its territory to major geographic barriers far from its core in an attempt to keep foreign powers distant. As a result, Russia has inevitably had to reach east across the frozen tundra of Siberia to the Pacific Ocean, southeast to the Tien Shen mountains of Central Asia, south to the Caucasus Mountains bordering Iran and Turkey, and finally west to the Carpathian Mountains in Central Europe. But, there is one major hole in this geographic expanse: The Northern European plane. The Northern European plane is a gap between the Carpathian Mountains and the Baltic sea which, at its narrowest, is 480 kilometers (300 miles) across. This narrow point, referred to as the Polish funnel, lies just West of Warsaw and reaches down Krakow in the south. Russia has faced three major attackers along this axis; Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler. Most recently, the expansion of NATO and the European Union into Central and Eastern Europe has raised Russian hackles. Moscow would much prefer to control the lands between Russia and the Polish funnel &mdash; pushing as far west as possible &mdash; knowing full well that once an attacker has passed that narrow chokepoint, it is an open march to Russia&#39;s heartland. For this reason, Moscow seeks to occupy or influence its borderlands, or at the very least, maintain their neutrality. Looking beyond its indefensible borders and largely hollow interior, Russia boasts a diverse population of 144,463,450 people and a powerful military. These armed forces, backed by an autocratic political system, help protect the country&#39;s unwieldy land mass. Russia&#39;s economy is inherently fragile and highly dependent on commodity exports ranging from grain to energy. The country is traditionally at its most powerful when a strong, heavy-handed leader is in charge, such as current Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, though, the Kremlin must continually deal with internal political divisions, rising ethnic tensions and regional dissidence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Japan, Russia: Putin Visits Disputed Kurils, Highlights Worsening Ties

Ukraine, Russia: Any Renewed U.S. Talks Are Unlikely To Produce a Near-Term Ceasefire

Ukraine, Moldova: Rail Corridor Will Ease but Not Offset Grain Export Losses

China: World's First Scheduled Arctic Container Service Commences

Syria, Russia: Russia Slowly Winds Down Military Bases in Syria

Russia, NATO: U.S. Intel Warns Putin Could Test NATO's Resolve

Russia, Ukraine: Targeted Attacks Will Keep Russian War Officials at Risk

Europe, Russia: Lithuania Warns of Possible Russian False-Flag Drone Attacks in the Baltics

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