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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said the country's military intelligence uncovered indications that Russia was weighing unconventional kinetic attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure using Ukrainian-made drones to maintain plausible deniability, LRT reported Aug. 6.

Europe, Russia: Lithuania Warns of Possible Russian False-Flag Drone Attacks in the Baltics

Poland

Belarus

Belarus began mass snap reserve call-ups in its western Grodno region bordering Poland and Lithuania as part of an unscheduled combat readiness inspection, with thousands reportedly summoned on hours' notice and transported to training grounds, Charter'97 reported on Feb. 23.

Belarus: Snap Reserve Call-Ups Near NATO Borders

China

Economics

China said it was open to resuming dialogue with Lithuania after Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene said the country's 2021 decision to allow Taiwan to open a de facto embassy in Vilnius was a mistake, Reuters reported Feb. 6.

Lithuania, China: Vilnius Signals Shift Toward Normalizing Relations With Beijing

Lithuania temporarily closed Vilnius Airport and several border crossings with Belarus on Oct. 26 after multiple helium balloons entered its airspace, marking the fourth such incident in a week, Reuters reported on Oct. 27.

Lithuania, Belarus: Lithuania To Down Smuggler Balloons Amid Rising Border Tensions With Belarus

Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas announced his resignation, along with his resignation as leader of the Social Democratic Party (LSDP), following mounting criticism over alleged financial ties to a company owned by his sister-in-law, Reuters reported on July 31.

Lithuania: Prime Minister Resigns Amid Criticism of Personal Financial Ties

Latvia

Estonia

Energy

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will cut their last major energy link to Russia on Feb. 8, transitioning from the Moscow-controlled Soviet-era BRELL grid to the Continental Europe Synchronous Area on Feb. 9, Politico reported on Feb. 6. 

Baltic States: Exit From Russia-Controlled Grid To Heighten Hybrid Threat Risks

Germany

Finland

Sweden

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The operations of two subsea cables running across the Baltic Sea -- the C-Lion1 subsea cable connecting Finland and Germany and the nearby BCS East-West Interlink cable linking Lithuania to the Swedish island of Gotland -- were disrupted apparently due to physical damage, Reuters reported on Nov. 18.

Europe: Two Baltic Subsea Cables Ruptured in Suspected Sabotage

Lithuania's Social Democratic Party, or SD, won the most votes in the two rounds of parliamentary elections held on Oct. 13 and Oct. 27, gaining control of 52 seats in the 141-seat parliament, Reuters reported on Oct. 27, citing official results from the run-off vote.

Lithuania: Center-Left Opposition Social Democratic Party Wins Parliamentary Elections

Snapshots

A Latvian border guard patrols along the fence at the Belarusian border near Krivanda, eastern Latvia, on Aug. 8, 2023.

Migration pressure orchestrated by Belarus is shifting toward Latvia and driving the adoption of sophisticated tunnel-smuggling tactics that will test EU resilience.

Belarus's Hybrid Migration Tactics Shift Pressure to Latvia

Assessments

Eurasia

A soldier from the "Taifun" unmanned aerial vehicle unit prepares a new strike drone for flight on April 7, 2026 in Ukraine. 

Although Moscow is threatening retaliation against Baltic states over supposed involvement in Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, the Kremlin will not risk a direct military confrontation with NATO.


Direct NATO-Russia Confrontation in the Baltic Unlikely, Despite Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure 

Media

Denmark

Podcasts

Why is the Baltic such a critical and complex region?

Essential Geopolitics: Remilitarization in the Baltic

Columns

On Geopolitics

Norway

A view in Rostock, Germany, of the first exit of warships for the NATO exercise BALTOPS in the Baltic Sea on June 5, 2025. 

In response to Russian aggression, NATO is seeking to establish strategic control over the Baltic Sea via rearmament and more assertive posturing, creating an environment where the risk of miscalculation grows exponentially.

Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

A newly installed sign pointing to Schengen transfer flights is pictured next to EU and Romanian flags on March 31, 2024. 

Poland's move to reimpose border checks to curb irregular migration from Germany and Lithuania highlights a greater trend that risks entrenching uncertainty for businesses and travelers in the EU's passport-free area.

New Polish Border Controls Bring Europe's Schengen Area Back Into Question

United States

Luxembourg

Malta

Czech Republic

Greece

France

United Kingdom

Belgium

Bulgaria

Portugal

Romania

Croatia

Cyprus

Austria

Slovakia

Slovenia

Netherlands

Spain

Italy

Ireland

Hungary

Members of the European Parliament take part in voting on the Artificial Intelligence Act during a plenary session at the European Parliament.

Cyber

The EU's recently negotiated Artificial Intelligence Act will bolster the European Union's dominance as a regulatory heavyweight in emerging technologies, yet anticipated enforcement challenges and stringent stipulations with the Act risk impeding AI innovation within the bloc.

EU Lawmakers Clinch Agreement on Artificial Intelligence Act 

Rail cars loaded with steel sit at the ThyssenKrupp Schwelgern steel plant on May 30, 2018 in Duisburg, Germany. 

The European Union and the United States will increase efforts to deconflict their trade and climate policies ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential and EU parliamentary elections, but lingering disagreements will not allow for a complete respite of Trump-era tariffs on EU steel and aluminum.

EU-U.S. Steel and Aluminum Negotiations Make Limited Headway

A woman sits by the entrance to the GUM department store in central Minsk on February 14, 2023.

Though Belarus is showing economic recovery in the short term, a number of structural issues will undermine its long-term growth prospects.

Belarus' Tentative Recovery Won’t Ensure Future Growth -– Or Kick-Start the Opposition

Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte (center) speaks to journalists in Vilnius on May 23, 2021, about the Ryanair passenger plane that was hijacked and diverted to Minsk, Belarus.

Security

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Any Western response to the plane hijacking incident is unlikely to stop Lukashenko from continuing his crackdown on dissent. 

What to Make of Belarus’s Brazen Arrest of a Journalist 

A satellite image shows Europe at night.

EU: Regional Blocs

The New Silk Road

Divided EU Foreign Policies

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The move shows the White House remains committed to its security and economic engagements in the region, with an eye on countering China and Russia. 

The U.S. Ramps Up Financial Support to Central and Eastern Europe

The Russian 9M729 intermediate-range cruise missile was developed in secret had been deployed in small numbers even before the IMF Treaty became defunct.

Echoes of the Cold War

Moscow would couple any new deployments of its intermediate-range missiles with rhetoric blaming the United States for the treaty's collapse and subsequent weapons buildups.

Russia Approaches a Post-INF Arms Race in Europe With Caution

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

A post marks the beginning of Polish territory on its border with Lithuania.

The U.S. and its NATO allies are looking for new ways to deter Russian aggression against the Baltic states. But policymakers and defense planners have yet to agree on Moscow's intentions in the region.

Threading the Needle Through the Suwalki Gap

Lithuania is a country in northeastern Europe. Located by the Baltic Sea, it shares land borders with Latvia, Belarus, Poland and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Lithuania’s political and economic capital is Vilnius, but the city of Klaipeda, which is home to the main ice-free port on the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, is also of strategic importance to the country.     Lithuania is mostly flat, with several short rivers and multiple lakes. Its main river is the Neman, which begins in Belarus and flows through Lithuania before reaching the Baltic Sea. A third of Lithuania’s territory consists of woodlands, while the fertile lands in the country’s center represent the core of Lithuania’s agricultural sector.     Lithuania rose to prominence in the 14th century as the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, which extended over parts of modern-day Belarus, Ukraine, Poland and Russia. In the late 16th century, Lithuania and Poland formed the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, becoming a major European power. But despite its occasional might, Lithuania has often faced threats from its powerful neighbors, which over the centuries have included Germany, Austria, Russia and Sweden. By the late 19th century, imperial Russia had absorbed most of Lithuania’s territory. While Lithuania briefly obtained independence in 1918, the Soviet Union annexed the country after World War II. Lithuania was a Soviet republic until 1990, when it became independent once more. Since then, Lithuania has joined NATO, the European Union, the Schengen agreement and the eurozone.    Lithuania’s main geopolitical concern in Russia. The country’s fear of potential Russian aggression increased after Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine in 2014. In recent years, the country has increased its military expenditures and sought to reduce its dependence on Russian energy. In 2014, for example, it opened an LNG terminal in Klaipeda. Despite Vilnius' fears, Russia remains Lithuania’s main trade partner. Lithuania’s main geopolitical challenge is thus to cooperate with its neighbors in the Baltic region, the broader European Union and NATO to secure political, economic and military protection against potential foreign aggression.

SITUATION REPORTS

Europe, Russia: Lithuania Warns of Possible Russian False-Flag Drone Attacks in the Baltics

Belarus: Snap Reserve Call-Ups Near NATO Borders

Lithuania, China: Vilnius Signals Shift Toward Normalizing Relations With Beijing

Lithuania, Belarus: Lithuania To Down Smuggler Balloons Amid Rising Border Tensions With Belarus

Lithuania: Prime Minister Resigns Amid Criticism of Personal Financial Ties

Baltic States: Exit From Russia-Controlled Grid To Heighten Hybrid Threat Risks

Europe: Two Baltic Subsea Cables Ruptured in Suspected Sabotage

Lithuania: Center-Left Opposition Social Democratic Party Wins Parliamentary Elections

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