United States

Iran

Israel

Energy

Military & Security

Iran warned that it would respond if Gulf Arab countries allowed the United States to use their airspace or military bases against Iran, Reuters reported on Oct. 8, a day before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Saudi Arabia to speak with Saudi officials.

Iran: Tehran Warns Against the U.S. Using Gulf Territory, Airspace To Attack Iran

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

U.S. President Joe Biden said he would not support an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, BBC reported on Oct. 2. 

Israel, Iran: Opposition to Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Program Increases Regional Risk to Oil and Gas Infrastructure

The United States warned that Iran was preparing an "imminent" ballistic missile attack on Israel, adding just after 10 a.m. Eastern time that the attack would likely occur within the next 12 hours, likely after dark, The New York Times reported on Oct. 1. 

Israel, Iran: U.S. Warns Israel of 'Imminent' Iranian Attack

Iraq

Politics

The United States announced the U.S.-led coalition's military mission in Iraq would conclude by the end of 2025 as the first part of a two-phase transition, though it was not called a "full withdrawal," AP reported on Sept. 27.

U.S., Iraq: U.S. Announces End to U.S.-Led Coalition's Iraq Mission in 2025

Venezuela

China

Czech Republic

Spain

Russia

Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello announced that the government arrested three U.S. citizens, two Spaniards and a Czech national for their alleged participation in a conspiracy to destabilize the administration, El Pais reported on Sept. 14. 

Venezuela: Alleged Anti-Government Plot Portends Crackdown on Opposition

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian concluded his first trip abroad since taking office in July with a trip to Iraq, which took place from Sept. 11-13 and included visits to Baghdad, Iraqi Kurdistan and Basra, Rudaw reported Sept. 13.

Iran: President Pezeshkian Finishes First Foreign Visit to Iraq

Syria

Israeli forces reportedly carried out a ground raid on an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC)-related facility in Masyaf in central Syria on Sept. 8, according to Times of Israel on Sept. 12. 

Israel, Syria: Israeli Ground Troops Used in Raid on IRGC Site

Germany

France

United Kingdom

France, Germany and the United Kingdom -- the so-called E3 grouping of signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal -- issued a joint statement on Sept. 10 criticizing Iran's transfer of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine.

Europe: France, Germany and the U.K. Sanction Iran Over Missile Transfers to Russia

Assessments

India

Pakistan

Economics

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting, Chinese Financial Support Measures

Columns

On Geopolitics

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Yemen

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

Mozambique

Brazil

Tunisia

Ukraine

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Ethiopia

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Jordan

Oman

Qatar

Turkey

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Authorities in Israel's southern city of Gedera assess a damaged school building after a projectile exploded upon impact on Oct. 1, 2024, after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. 

Israel will most likely strike a small number of targets inside Iran, but there is a chance it will pursue more escalatory options that would likely invite further Iranian attacks.

Gauging Israel's Options for Responding to Iran's Ballistic Missile Attack

Smoke rises from rubble at the scene of Israeli air strikes in the Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut's southern suburbs on Sept. 27, 2024.

Israel's expanding assassination campaign will compel Hezbollah to escalate its cross-border attacks and could eventually force Iran to intervene to protect its most reliable proxy.

Israel Goes After Hezbollah's Top Leader, Leaving Little Room for Deescalation

Remains of exploded pagers on Sept. 18 in southern Beirut. Israel's attacks on Hezbollah's communications likely signal a steady shift toward a more intense Lebanon campaign,

Israel's attacks on Hezbollah's communications likely signal a steady shift toward a more intense Lebanon campaign. 

Israel's Electronics Sabotage Signals a More Intense Military Campaign in Lebanon

Europe

A digital illustration shows a binary code overlaying the Iranian flag.

Cyber

In the second part of this series, we explore Iran's attempts to steal information, silence critics, and disrupt Western critical infrastructure and organizations via damaging cyberattacks and espionage campaigns.

Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 2

In the first of this two-part series, we explore Iran's attempts to sway the upcoming U.S. presidential election and heighten anti-Israel sentiments via online influence campaigns and cyberattacks.

Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 1

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (R) and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Muhammad Ali Tamim on April 15 in Washington. Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.

Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.

Security in Iraq After a U.S. Withdrawal

People watch a televised speech of Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah commemorating the seventh-century killing of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson Imam Hussein, in Beirut, Lebanon, on July 17, 2024.

Despite their unified vision, groups within the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance are unlikely to sacrifice their strategic imperatives for one another, leaving them vulnerable to Israeli attacks.

Assessing the Strategic Imperatives of the Iranian-Led 'Axis of Resistance'

Iran sits at the crossroads of the Islamic world. Linking the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central and South Asia, Iran has struggled to balance the benefits and risks of its geographic position.    Iran's core is located in the western Zagros mountain range. From this secure geography, the beginnings of the Persian Empire spread throughout Iran's mountainous topography securing the Alborz, the southern Zagros and much of the Iranian plateau.    Iran's primary geographic challenge has been to secure itself from the many external threats on its borders. Arabs, Mongols and Turks all conquered ancient Persia at various times, prompting Persia to expand its territorial control whenever possible to establish a buffer to protect its core.    At its height, the Persian Empire stretched from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush mountains, bridging modern-day Europe and Asia. Echoes of this former empire can be seen even today, with Iran's support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the al Assad regime in Damascus and the Shiite-led government in Iraq.    Iran has also struggled to unite and control the various language and ethnic groups located within its core territories, a process impeded by the country's difficult terrain. Modern-day Tehran is aided by its large hydrocarbon reserves; Iran boasts the fourth-largest oil reserves and largest natural gas reserves in the world. The 20th century saw British, Russian and American interests competing not only to control Iran's strategic geographic location, but its significant energy reserves as well.    This modern-day reliance on energy revenues has resulted in Iran's focus on securing the Strait of Hormuz and expanding control over the Persian Gulf to secure its core territories from the threat of outside invasion.

SITUATION REPORTS

Iran: Tehran Warns Against the U.S. Using Gulf Territory, Airspace To Attack Iran

Israel, Iran: Opposition to Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Program Increases Regional Risk to Oil and Gas Infrastructure

Israel, Iran: U.S. Warns Israel of 'Imminent' Iranian Attack

U.S., Iraq: U.S. Announces End to U.S.-Led Coalition's Iraq Mission in 2025

Venezuela: Alleged Anti-Government Plot Portends Crackdown on Opposition

Iran: President Pezeshkian Finishes First Foreign Visit to Iraq

Israel, Syria: Israeli Ground Troops Used in Raid on IRGC Site

Europe: France, Germany and the U.K. Sanction Iran Over Missile Transfers to Russia

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support