Iraq

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British Prime Minister Kier Starmer and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani inked a 12.3 billion pound, roughly $15 billion, trade and investment deal as the two countries seek to reset ties, a bilateral security deal and discussed the return of irregular migrants to Iraq, Reuters reported Jan. 14. 

U.K., Iraq: U.K. and Iraq Sign 12.3B Pound Trade Deal and a Security Pact to Improve Bilateral Relations

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Energy

OPEC+ countries agreed to delay the phase-out of 2.2 million barrels of oil per day of production cuts from Jan. 1, 2025, until April 1 and to phase those cuts out over 18 months instead of the originally planned 12 months, Argus Media reported on Dec. 5. 

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

Lebanon

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Military & Security

At least 300 Iranian-backed Iraqi militia fighters -- mostly from the Badr Organization and Nujabaa group -- crossed into Syria to back the Syrian government's forces and fight the rebels, in addition to a small number of fighters from Fatemiyoun, Reuters reported Dec. 2. 

Syria, Iraq, Lebanon: Iranian-Backed Militias Go to Syria to Back the Assad Regime

Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and other OPEC+ participants will delay the start of their planned unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary oil production cuts from Dec. 1 to the end of December, OPEC announced in a Nov. 3 press release. 

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

The Iraqi parliament broke its deadlock and elected Sunni lawmaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani to be the parliamentary speaker after he secured the position with 182 votes in support of him out of the 329-seat body, Reuters reported Oct. 31. 

Iraq: Iraqi Parliament Breaks Deadlock and Elects New Speaker

Israel

Iran is reportedly planning to launch a "major" retaliatory attack against Israel from Iraq possibly ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. general election, Axios reported on Oct. 31, citing Israeli intelligence sources.

Israel, Iran, Iraq: Iran Reportedly Planning to Attack Israel From Iraq

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Israel Defense Forces carried out "precise strikes" on "military targets" in Iran early in the morning on Oct. 26, the IDF confirmed in a statement posted to X after media reports emerged saying that loud explosions occurred in Tehran and Karaj, a suburb about 20 miles northwest of Tehran.

Israel, Iran: Israel Launches Strikes on Iranian 'Military Targets'

Turkey

The Turkish air force conducted airstrikes on 47 targets in northern Iraq and Syria belonging to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, and the People's Protection Units, or YPG, on Oct. 23 just hours after the PKK conducted a fatal terrorist attack on Turkish Aerospace Industries, Al Jazeera reported on Oct. 24.

Turkey: Air Force Strikes 47 Kurdish Militant Targets in Northern Iraq and Syria

Assessments

Qatar

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan welcomes his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani before attending an Arab officials' meeting in Riyadh on Jan. 12, 2025.

Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq aims to counterbalance Turkey, Qatar and Iran but faces limits due to sectarian politics and foreign interference, which may make Riyadh more assertive over time.

Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant

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The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

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Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

An anti-regime fighter tears off a poster depicting Syrian President Bashar al Assad (left) and his brother Maher at the airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

With its proxy network weakened, developing nuclear weapons will become a more attractive option for Iran as it tries to rebuild deterrence against the U.S. and Israel.

Assad's Fall in Syria Deals Another Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance

A child tapes a stick holding a Hamas flag during a demonstration in support of Palestinian resistance in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on Jan. 12, 2024. 

Hamas' impending expulsion from Qatar will force the group to either relocate its Politburo or disperse its senior leaders across multiple countries, either of which would carry challenges.

With Its Welcome Worn Out in Qatar, Hamas Seeks a New Home Base

Moldova

The first day of early voting in the Nov. 5 U.S. election Oct. 21, 2024, in Stamford, Connecticut. U.S. voters will select a new president, 435 representatives, 34 senators, and any number of state and municipal officials Nov. 5.

Global Elections

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: America Votes, Qatar's Constitutional Referendum

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A general view of Tehran after several explosions amid an Israeli attack were heard there Oct. 26, 2024.

Israel's long-awaited response to Iran's Oct. 1 strike proves restrained, limiting the risk of all-out war.

Israel's Measured Attack on Iran Calibrated to Avoid a Response

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Graphics

Members of the Kurdish peshmerga security forces queue at a polling station to vote ahead of the Oct. 20 parliamentary election in Arbil, the capital of Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region, on Oct. 18, 2024. 

Following belated parliamentary elections in Iraqi Kurdistan, explore the most prominent Kurdish groups in the Middle East.

Iraqi Kurdistan's Parliamentary Elections Highlight Two Major Kurdish Groups in the Middle East

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On Geopolitics

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

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The Geopolitics of Water

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Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (R) and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Muhammad Ali Tamim on April 15 in Washington. Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.

Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.

Security in Iraq After a U.S. Withdrawal

People watch a televised speech of Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah commemorating the seventh-century killing of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson Imam Hussein, in Beirut, Lebanon, on July 17, 2024.

Despite their unified vision, groups within the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance are unlikely to sacrifice their strategic imperatives for one another, leaving them vulnerable to Israeli attacks.

Assessing the Strategic Imperatives of the Iranian-Led 'Axis of Resistance'

<p>Iraq rests at the heart of the Middle East, wedged between large and small powers alike. The country is divided into three topographic zones: the riverlands of Mesopotamia, the land between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers; the western and southern deserts, which reach into Saudi Arabia and Syria; and the highlands of Iraqi Kurdistan. The southern deserts shield Iraq from attack, while the northern highlands impede any attempt at conquest from Anatolia. But the open Syrian Desert provides a route into Iraq from Syria, especially along the Euphrates River, and the country&rsquo;s eastern frontier has few natural barriers to prevent invasion from Iran. The flat riverlands are similarly vulnerable to incursion from any power able to land an army from the Persian Gulf. Historically, foreign forces have used these routes as a means to penetrate Iraq&rsquo;s borders. In premodern times, Iraq&rsquo;s wealth came from its agricultural core, which forms the heart of the Fertile Crescent and stretches to the Persian Gulf. The country&rsquo;s 37 million people are still mostly concentrated in these farmlands today. But the discovery of oil in the north, east and south have shifted Iraq&rsquo;s economic core from the agricultural riverlands to the northern highlands and the Iranian border, bringing prosperity to cities such as Mosul, Arbil and Kirkuk. For most of its history, Iraq has been dominated by its neighbors, which have left behind unique cultural, religious and ethnic legacies. The Sunni Ottoman Turks and the Shiite Safavid Persians helped produce the country&rsquo;s modern Sunni and Shiite communities, while the sparsely inhabited western desert continues to have tribal and sectarian links to Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria. Some of these groups have kept their relationships with Iraq&rsquo;s neighbors, which leverage those ties for their own strategic purposes. Meanwhile, in Iraq&rsquo;s northern highlands, the indigenous Kurds have managed to maintain a cohesive identity throughout centuries of foreign domination. This isolation occasionally gives rise to Kurdish secessionism. As the northern highlands drift further from the central government&rsquo;s control, the Sunni, Shiite, Christian and other communities of the riverlands and deserts jockey with one another for dominance of the state. Iraq&rsquo;s geographic challenge is therefore to protect its vulnerable oil fields while managing a diverse population that is susceptible to external influence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

U.K., Iraq: U.K. and Iraq Sign 12.3B Pound Trade Deal and a Security Pact to Improve Bilateral Relations

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

Syria, Iraq, Lebanon: Iranian-Backed Militias Go to Syria to Back the Assad Regime

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

Iraq: Iraqi Parliament Breaks Deadlock and Elects New Speaker

Israel, Iran, Iraq: Iran Reportedly Planning to Attack Israel From Iraq

Israel, Iran: Israel Launches Strikes on Iranian 'Military Targets'

Turkey: Air Force Strikes 47 Kurdish Militant Targets in Northern Iraq and Syria

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