United States

Iran

Israel

Saudi Arabia

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

U.S.-Iran Relations

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there were "good signs" a deal could be reached with Iran, though he rejected Tehran tolling ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reported May 21. 

U.S., Iran: Rubio Suggests 'Good Signs' for Deal, but Sticking Points Remain

Palestinian Territories

Israel's May 16 assassination of Hamas military chief Izz al-Din al-Haddad has triggered a power struggle within the Palestinian militant group, according to sources cited in a May 21 report in The National.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Report Details Hamas Infighting in Wake of Military Chief's Assassination

Middle East and North Africa

Politics

The latest U.S. negotiation proposal has "narrowed the gaps" between U.S. and Iranian demands, though some gaps remain, according to the Iranian Students' News Agency cited by Bloomberg on May 21.

U.S., Iran: Iranian Media Says Latest U.S. Proposal 'Narrows Gaps'

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to expand the Iran war "beyond the region" if U.S. or Israeli attacks against Iran resume, Reuters reported May 20.

Global: Iran Threatens To Expand Conflict 'Beyond the Region' if U.S. or Israeli Strikes Resume

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Israel Defense Forces said it had confirmed the assassination of Hamas military chief Izz al-Din al-Haddad in Gaza on May 16, and Hamas also confirmed his death, The Times of Israel reported on May 18.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Assassinates Hamas Military Chief, Confirms Expanded Control of Gaza

Lebanon

A U.S. State Department spokesperson said Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their ceasefire by 45 days during the third round of direct Israel-Lebanon talks on May 14-15 in Washington, D.C., Reuters reported on May 15.

Israel, Lebanon: Israel and Lebanon To Extend Ceasefire by 45 Days

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, the first step toward ensuring that the government meets its Oct. 27 deadline to hold elections, The Times of Israel reported on May 13.

Israel: Elections Set for October as Knesset Moves To Dissolve

In a May 10 Truth Social post, U.S. President Donald Trump called Iran's May 10 response to the latest U.S. proposal to end the war "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE."

U.S., Iran: Trump Rejects Iranian Response to U.S. Proposal

Assessments

Japan

Philippines

Armenia

Kazakhstan

Russia

India

A cargo ship anchored May 16 in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran. Major gaps in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program persist, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will remain fragile over the next week.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Rubio Visits India, a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

Germany

United Kingdom

Slovenia

Spain

Ireland

Hungary

The EU and Israeli flags in March 2024 in central Berlin's Rotes Rathaus. Although the European Union has sanctioned extremist Israeli settlers, deep-seated internal divisions and a reliance on Israeli defense systems will likely prevent the bloc from imposing comprehensive trade restrictions.

Although the European Union has sanctioned extremist Israeli settlers, deep-seated internal divisions and a reliance on Israeli defense systems will likely prevent the bloc from imposing comprehensive trade restrictions.

Targeted EU Sanctions on Israeli Settlers Unlikely To Broaden Into Wider Restrictions 

Egypt

Jordan

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Right-wing activists gather with Israeli flags outside the Damascus Gate of the walled Old City of Jerusalem on May 26, 2025, during a flag march for Jerusalem Day, commemorating the Israeli army's 1967 capture of the city's eastern sector during the Arab-Israeli war.

Israel's quest for middle-power status will be defined by its ability to unify its Jerusalem core, which has remained divided throughout the modern state's history.

The Modern Geopolitics of Israel

Commercial vessels are seen offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.

While recent revelations about the airstrikes indicate a shift in both countries' risk calculations, the UAE's hawkish, Israel-aligned posture poses a greater threat of Iranian retaliation than Saudi Arabia's more restrained approach. 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia Enter the War Against Iran, but With Separate Strategies

Kenya

China

France

Boats on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the United States and Iran will remain elevated, especially around the strait, following the May 7 U.S.-Iran exchange of attacks and Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates.

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, France Convenes an Africa Summit

Snapshots

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

People gather at the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs on May 6, 2026.

Israel's May 6 airstrike, which killed a top Hezbollah commander, will weaken the already tenuous April ceasefire and diminish prospects for U.S.-backed mediation, raising the risk of a return to a wider war.

Beirut Attack Further Dims Prospects for Lebanon-Israel Peace Talks

An Emirates Boeing 777 aircraft prepares for landing as a smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16.

A military response from the United States aiming to compel Iranian concessions without committing to ground operations could trigger a prolonged cycle of retaliatory attacks between U.S. allies and Iran.


Iran, U.S. Ceasefire at Elevated Risk of Collapse After Iran Attacks UAE

Iraq

A member of the Iraqi security forces stands guard next to a national flag as pilgrims march from the center of Baghdad toward the shrine of Imam Moussa al-Kadhim, the seventh of 12 revered imams in Shiite Islam, during an annual religious commemoration on Feb. 16, 2023.

Ali al-Zaidi's lack of experience and ties to a U.S.-sanctioned bank will complicate his attempts to form a government by the constitutional deadline.

Iraq's Prime Minister-Designate Likely To Struggle To Form Government

People in Beirut fire bullets into the sky to celebrate the new Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement on April 16, 2026. 

The fragile 10-day truce creates space for rare direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, but a short-term breakthrough is unlikely due to divergent objectives regarding Hezbollah and territorial control, sustaining the risk of resumed cross-border conflict.

What To Expect as Israel and Lebanon Engage in Talks After Reaching Fragile Ceasefire

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

A passenger boat sails past the Indian-flagged oil tanker Kashimasan, which is docked near an offloading terminal at Butcher Island (also known as Jawahar Dweep) off the coast of Mumbai, India, on April 1, 2026.

Energy and fertilizer price shocks from the Iran war will increasingly threaten energy supplies, crop yields and economic growth across the region, pressuring governments' foreign exchange reserves and heightening unrest risks.

In South Asia, Iran War Fallout Risks Worsening Economic and Political Instability

U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaks as special envoys Jared Kushner (L) and Steve Witkoff listen during a news conference after a meeting with representatives from Pakistan and Iran on April 12, 2026, in Islamabad, Pakistan. 

The U.S. blockade may not immediately collapse the ceasefire with Iran, but it will further disrupt maritime shipping and the global economy.

After U.S.-Iran Talks Fail, Washington Moves To Blockade the Strait of Hormuz

Israel lives under difficult geopolitical circumstances. A small country with limited resources and surrounded by potentially hostile neighbors, Israel survives by allying with powers that do have the resources to manage the balance of power in the Middle East — namely, the United States. Its geographic position also means that Israel must manage complex relations with its Muslim neighbors by quiet collaboration, by exploiting divisions, and by parlaying its technological and economic advantages into create strategic dependencies. To navigate all the challenges presented by the Middle East, Israel will remain agile in its diplomacy and, when the situation warrants, steadfast in its pre-emptive strikes, its covert activities and its economic relationships.

Israel's Survival Strategy

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Iran: Rubio Suggests 'Good Signs' for Deal, but Sticking Points Remain

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Report Details Hamas Infighting in Wake of Military Chief's Assassination

U.S., Iran: Iranian Media Says Latest U.S. Proposal 'Narrows Gaps'

Global: Iran Threatens To Expand Conflict 'Beyond the Region' if U.S. or Israeli Strikes Resume

Israel, Gaza: Israel Assassinates Hamas Military Chief, Confirms Expanded Control of Gaza

Israel, Lebanon: Israel and Lebanon To Extend Ceasefire by 45 Days

Israel: Elections Set for October as Knesset Moves To Dissolve

U.S., Iran: Trump Rejects Iranian Response to U.S. Proposal

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