United States

Israel

Lebanon

Military & Security

Politics

The Lebanese Armed Forces announced the completion of the first phase of its plan to disarm non-state armed groups south of the Litani River, namely Hezbollah, AP reported on Jan. 8.

Lebanon: Army Announces End of First Phase of Disarmament Plan

Somalia

Egypt

Palestinian Territories

Turkey

Economics

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar visited Somaliland for the first time since Israel recognized Somaliland as an independent country on Dec. 27, 2025, Reuters reported on Jan. 6.

Israel, Somalia: Israeli Foreign Minister Conducts First Visit to Somaliland After Recognition

Syria

France

Israel and Syria resumed U.S.-mediated talks in Paris on a security agreement after around two months of negotiations being frozen, Reuters reported Jan. 5. 

Syria, Israel: Syria and Israel Resume Negotiations on Security Agreement

Somaliland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's claim that the breakaway region would host an Israeli military base and accept resettled Palestinians, the Times of Israel reported on Jan. 1.

Somalia: Somaliland Rejects Somali Claims That It Will Host Israeli Base

U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Dec. 29 to reverse Israel's West Bank policies amid U.S. concerns that settlement expansion and violent Israeli settlers could undermine the Gaza ceasefire and stall efforts to expand the Abraham Accords, Axios reported on Dec. 30.

U.S., Israel: U.S. Pressures Israel To Reverse West Bank Policies, Israel Curbs Humanitarian Work in Gaza

Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with U.S. President Donald Trump at the latter's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida and discussed the second phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza, as well as regional security threats from Hamas and Iran, Al Jazeera reported on Dec. 29.

U.S., Israel: Netanyahu, Trump Meet in Florida, Discuss Regional Security Issues, Gaza Ceasefire

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The governments of Somalia's Jubaland and Puntland states skipped a meeting convened by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to discuss plans to protect the country's territorial integrity following Israel's Dec. 26 recognition of the independence Somaliland, a breakaway region, Hiiraan Online reported on Dec. 29.

Somalia: Puntland and Jubaland Skip Meeting With Federal Government Over Israeli Recognition of Somaliland

Yemen

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced in a joint declaration with Somaliland's President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi that Israel recognized Somaliland's sovereignty as an independent state, the first country in the world to recognize the breakaway region, The Jerusalem Post reported on Dec. 26.

Israel, Somalia: Israel Recognizes Somaliland's Sovereignty

Snapshots

Israeli troops patrol the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights on July 23, 2025. 

While the new U.S.-backed intelligence-sharing agreement will help temporarily ease cross-border tensions, unresolved security issues and structural constraints undermine the prospects for deeper normalization.

Syria-Israel Deal Paves Way for Broader Security Coordination, but Constraints Remain

Assessments

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

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Flight routes.

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Sudan

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

Energy

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

YemenYemenis rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council on Dec. 14, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Escalating tensions and potential violence between the Southern Transitional Council and Saudi-backed forces create security vacuums that Houthi rebels will likely exploit.



Yemen's Anti-Houthi Bloc Is Fracturing

Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.

If effective, the laser air defense system will significantly reduce the cost of intercepting short-range aerial threats and bolster Israel's multilayered protection against aerial attacks.


The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture

Palestinian Hamas militants stand guard as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp, in the northern Gaza Strip, on Dec. 1, 2025.

The shift toward a low-intensity conflict in the Gaza Strip will likely enable Israel to keep pressuring Hamas to disarm without triggering significant backlash or a resumption of Houthi maritime attacks.

Israel Moves Toward a De Facto Partition of Gaza

A photograph taken from the Israeli side of the border with southern Lebanon shows U.N. peacekeepers clearing landmines on Nov. 19, 2025. 

Rare direct talks between the neighboring adversaries will probably continue despite Hezbollah's objections, but Israel's likely refusal to offer meaningful concessions will sustain a high risk of renewed conflict in the coming months.

Lebanon-Israel Talks Are Unlikely To Pave the Way for Peace

Columns

On Geopolitics

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut. Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires.

Miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would, however, increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting. 

Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold

Media

Podcasts

What is the outlook for Indonesia-Israel normalization, and what would that process look like?

Essential Geopolitics: Indonesia's Interest in Israel-Gaza

Israel lives under difficult geopolitical circumstances. A small country with limited resources and surrounded by potentially hostile neighbors, Israel survives by allying with powers that do have the resources to manage the balance of power in the Middle East — namely, the United States. Its geographic position also means that Israel must manage complex relations with its Muslim neighbors by quiet collaboration, by exploiting divisions, and by parlaying its technological and economic advantages into create strategic dependencies. To navigate all the challenges presented by the Middle East, Israel will remain agile in its diplomacy and, when the situation warrants, steadfast in its pre-emptive strikes, its covert activities and its economic relationships.

Israel's Survival Strategy

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTS

Lebanon: Army Announces End of First Phase of Disarmament Plan

Israel, Somalia: Israeli Foreign Minister Conducts First Visit to Somaliland After Recognition

Syria, Israel: Syria and Israel Resume Negotiations on Security Agreement

Somalia: Somaliland Rejects Somali Claims That It Will Host Israeli Base

U.S., Israel: U.S. Pressures Israel To Reverse West Bank Policies, Israel Curbs Humanitarian Work in Gaza

U.S., Israel: Netanyahu, Trump Meet in Florida, Discuss Regional Security Issues, Gaza Ceasefire

Somalia: Puntland and Jubaland Skip Meeting With Federal Government Over Israeli Recognition of Somaliland

Israel, Somalia: Israel Recognizes Somaliland's Sovereignty

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