Cote d'Ivoire

Military & Security

Politics

An Ivorian court effectively barred the leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire, or PDCI, Tidjane Thiam, from running in the country's Oct. 25 presidential election after ruling that he had lost his Ivorian nationality, Reuters reported on April 22.

Cote d’Ivoire: Court Bars Opposition Leader Tidjane Thiam From Running in Presidential Election

In an interview with French news outlet Jeune Afrique published April 9, President of Cote d'Ivoire's Conference of Catholic Bishops Marcellin Yao Kouadio questioned the independence of the country's electoral commission and warned that a crisis could occur surrounding the organization of presidential elections that are currently slated for Oct. 25.

Cote d'Ivoire: Catholic Church Questions Electoral Commission Independence Ahead of Presidential Elections 

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Russia

Russia's Africa Corps began deploying transmission equipment and radars at the Faya-Largeau base in northern Chad in late January, while observers have noted several individuals thought to be Africa Corps emissaries in the capital, N'Djamena, Jeune Afrique reported on Feb. 11.

Africa: Russia Expands Footprint in Chad, Upgrades Airbase in Southern Libya

Gabon

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France

Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara announced in his New Year's address that France would hand over its Port Bouet military base near Abidjan to the Ivorian military by the end of January, Le Monde reported on Jan. 1.

Cote d'Ivoire: President Ouattara Announces France Will Cede Military Base

Benin

Burkina Faso

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Niger

Amadou Koufa, the leader of the Katiba Macina group within al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), said that the group intends to expand its attacks and territorial control beyond its current focus on Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger towards the littoral states along the Gulf of Guinea, according to email correspondence with a France24 journalist published Oct. 23.

Sahel: Top JNIM Leader Pledges to Expand into Littoral West African States

Economics

Burkinabe junta leader Ibrahim Traore accused Cote d'Ivoire and Benin of attempting to destabilize Burkina Faso in coordination with France, Le Monde reported on July 11.

West Africa: Burkina Faso Accuses Cote d’Ivoire and Benin of Destabilization Attempts

France is looking to reduce its total number of troops deployed in Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, Gabon and Chad from 2,300 to 600 troops, Le Monde reported June 17, citing three French intelligence sources.

France: Country to Reduce Military Presence in Western and Central Africa 

United States

Commander of the U.S. Africa Command, or AFRICOM, Michael Langley met with Beninese President Patrice Talon to discuss bilateral military cooperation, Radio France Internationale reported on May 2. 

Benin: AFRICOM Commander Visits Benin, Cote d’Ivoire as U.S. Seeks New Drone Bases in West Africa

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A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

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Middle East and North Africa

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Cabo Verde

Europe

India

India Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) meets with French President Emmanuel Macron on Dec. 1, 2023, in Dubai.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Visits Africa, Macron Visits India

Snapshots

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

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People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

Burundi

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Mozambique

South Africa

Tanzania

Zimbabwe

Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

Old Leaders in a New Africa

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

The unexpected death ahead of the October vote risks dashing hopes for the country's first peaceful democratic transition of power by reigniting long-held political feuds.

In Ivory Coast, a Presidential Candidate's Death Risks Ending in Violence

France will have a difficult time stanching the spread of jihadists in the Sahel without the support of another big power.

The Jihadist Wars

As Washington considers a pullout from West Africa, Paris is contemplating just how difficult it is to hold back militants on the march.

Amid a U.S. Drawdown, France Strives to Hold Its Line in the Sahel

SITUATION REPORTS

Cote d’Ivoire: Court Bars Opposition Leader Tidjane Thiam From Running in Presidential Election

Cote d'Ivoire: Catholic Church Questions Electoral Commission Independence Ahead of Presidential Elections

Africa: Russia Expands Footprint in Chad, Upgrades Airbase in Southern Libya

Cote d'Ivoire: President Ouattara Announces France Will Cede Military Base

Sahel: Top JNIM Leader Pledges to Expand into Littoral West African States

West Africa: Burkina Faso Accuses Cote d’Ivoire and Benin of Destabilization Attempts

France: Country to Reduce Military Presence in Western and Central Africa

Benin: AFRICOM Commander Visits Benin, Cote d’Ivoire as U.S. Seeks New Drone Bases in West Africa

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