Mozambique

Military & Security

Politics

Opposition presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane unilaterally declared victory in Mozambique's Oct. 9 general election despite the absence of official results from the National Election Commission, Club of Mozambique reported on Oct. 10.

Mozambique: Opposition Candidate Unilaterally Declares Victory in General Election

Opposition presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane warned of a "tsunami" and that people were willing to "lose their lives" if the ruling Frelimo party was to resort to electoral manipulation in Mozambique's upcoming general election, Club of Mozambique reported Sept. 30.

Mozambique: Opposition Candidate Warns of Post-Election Violence 

Economics

Energy

In response to an article published in Politico on Sept. 26, TotalEnergies stated it was unaware of the alleged murders committed in 2021 by Mozambican soldiers near the company’s Afungi liquefied natural gas, or LNG, site, according to a statement published on its website on the same day.

Mozambique: TotalEnergies Refutes Claims of Awareness Regarding Alleged Torture and Killings at LNG Site

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's military launched operations against the radical Hutu Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda group, or FDLR, on Sept. 23, Jeune Afrique reported on Sept. 27.

Congo: Military Begins Operations Against FDLR, Targets Allied Wazalendo Militia

Presidential candidates for Mozambique's ruling Frelimo party and opposition Renamo party have called for a renegotiation of existing liquified natural gas contracts with multinational energy companies, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 19.

Mozambique: General Election Campaign Prompts Calls To Renegotiate LNG Contracts

Presidential candidate for Mozambique's ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) party, Daniel Chapo, pledged to transfer the headquarters of the country's parliament from Maputo to Mocuba, located in the central Zambezia province, Club of Mozambique reported Sept. 9.

Mozambique: Ruling Party Candidate Proposes to Relocate Parliament to the Central Zambezia Province

Islamic State Mozambique Province insurgents on Aug. 9 kidnapped at least 70 people fishing on at least three boats near Quilhanhune island, also known as Ilha Kero Niuni, off Macomia, Cabo Delgado province, Zitamar News reported on Aug. 12. 

Mozambique: Militants Kidnap at Least 70 Fishermen in Cabo Delgado

Europe

French oil major TotalEnergies hired security guards from Isco Seguranca, a company linked to Rwanda's ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front party, or RPF, to protect the site of its Mozambique LNG, the Financial Times reported on July 17.

Mozambique, Rwanda: TotalEnergies Hires State-Linked Rwandan Firms for Mozambique LNG Project 

Assessments

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A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

China

Russia

Frelimo electoral posters are plastered on a wall in Maputo, Mozambique, on Aug. 24, 2024, the first day of the presidential campaign season ahead of the general election on Oct. 9, 2024.

Global Elections

Mozambique's upcoming general election will likely bring another five years of Frelimo rule, though an independent candidate is drawing LNG contracts to the forefront of the campaign season.

Mozambique's General Election Brings LNG Contracts Centerstage

Rwandan troops guard an LNG project in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province on Sept. 29, 2022. 

The resurgence of the Islamic State Mozambique insurgency in Cabo Delgado portends more potentially destabilizing attacks that could deter investment in the resource-rich region.

The Future of Counterterrorism Efforts in Northern Mozambique

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Yael Braun-Pivet, a French lawmaker for the ruling Renaissance party, delivers a speech after being reelected as National Assembly president following the third round of voting on July 18, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: France Resumes Political Horse-Trading, Blinken Returns to Middle East

Opposition supporters gather to protest the results of the local elections in Maputo, Mozambique, on Oct. 17, 2023.

Despite recent opposition protests, the ruling party will likely maintain its dominance in the general elections and beyond, bolstered by an influx of revenue from the expected resumption of a major LNG project.

Mozambique's Disputed Local Elections Offer a Preview for the 2024 National Ballot

Republic of the Congo

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Italy

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (2nd L) and Libya's Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah (3rd L) attend an agreement-signing ceremony between Italian multinational oil and gas company Eni and the Libyan National Oil Corporation in Tripoli, Libya, on Jan. 28, 2023.

As Europe turns away from Russian energy, Italy positions itself as a natural gas conduit between the Continent and Africa.

With Energy Deals in Africa, Italy Positions Itself as Europe's Next Gas Hub

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On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan

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Central African Republic

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Mali

Nigeria

Sudan

Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

A military convoy from a multinational intervention force on Aug. 5, 2021, in Pemba, Mozambique. Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Security

Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

In Mozambique, a Victory Against Jihadists Likely Signals a New Guerrilla Campaign

On Security

Somalia

Indonesia

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Royal Malaysian Police Special Forces personnel storm a mock hijacked ship during an anti-piracy demonstration exercise June 13, 2007, in Port Klang, Malaysia.

Piracy tends to occur in globally significant locations and counterpiracy options all come at a cost to shippers.

A Primer on Global Maritime Piracy, Part 2

Guidance

Australia

The Iranian flag on March 1, 2021. ran's Guardian Council is expected to publish by May 27 its preliminary list of qualified candidates to run in the upcoming presidential election. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iranian Candidates, an Australian's Trial in China

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The Tianwen-1 probe is successfully launched on July 23, 2020, in Wenchang, Hainan, China.

COVID-19

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Science & Technology

The Weekly Rundown: Cypriot Sovereignty Talks and a Chinese Space Launch

A general view of the reception of Total E&P Uganda in Kampala, Uganda, on Jan. 22, 2020. Jihadist militants' seizure of the town of Palma jeopardizes the viability of Mozambique's liquefied natural gas industry and with it, the country's financial future.

The Jihadist Wars

The seizure of Palma marks a turning point in the jihadist threat to Mozambique, putting the country's financial future at risk.

In Mozambique, a Jihadist Attack Changes the Game for the LNG Sector

Located in southeastern Africa, Mozambique is bordered by Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Swaziland. With a coastline of roughly 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles), the majority of Mozambique's 23 million people reside in port cities. The capital, Maputo, is the largest city and the country's core — a result of its natural harbor and proximity to the dominant economy of South Africa.    Founded in the 16th century by Portuguese seafarers seeking maritime resupply stations to and from Asia, explorers soon ventured inland for land and resources. Portuguese expansion was contained by rival colonial powers, which controlled the mountainous highlands to Mozambique's west. As a result, Mozambique is a low-lying landscape prone to malaria. The country's borders, made by European mapmakers, are Mozambique's main geographic challenge, as they do not factor in ethnic boundaries.     Following its independence from Portugal in 1975, Mozambique struggled — often in armed conflict — to balance the country's two main ethnic groups. The Shangaan of southern Mozambique absorbed the colonial infrastructure concentrated in the core region. This enabled them to repel and contain the Shona of central Mozambique and other ethnic groups in the northern parts of the country.     Since the end of its civil war in 1992, Mozambique has had one of Africa's highest economic growth rates. Recent exploration found a large coal basin in central Mozambique and a globally significant offshore natural gas basin in the north. These resources will force government attention away from the southern core to regions it must no longer sequester and now engage. Exploiting these natural resources without exacerbating ethnic tensions will test Mozambique's fragile unity.

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Mozambique: Opposition Candidate Unilaterally Declares Victory in General Election

Mozambique: Opposition Candidate Warns of Post-Election Violence

Mozambique: TotalEnergies Refutes Claims of Awareness Regarding Alleged Torture and Killings at LNG Site

Congo: Military Begins Operations Against FDLR, Targets Allied Wazalendo Militia

Mozambique: General Election Campaign Prompts Calls To Renegotiate LNG Contracts

Mozambique: Ruling Party Candidate Proposes to Relocate Parliament to the Central Zambezia Province

Mozambique: Militants Kidnap at Least 70 Fishermen in Cabo Delgado

Mozambique, Rwanda: TotalEnergies Hires State-Linked Rwandan Firms for Mozambique LNG Project

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