Mozambique

Rwanda

Europe

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said the Rwandan government was ready to withdraw its troops from Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province if its "efforts and achievements [in the region] are not appreciated," Reuters reported on March 14.

Mozambique: Rwanda Hints at Troop Withdrawal if Military Deployment 'Not Appreciated'

EU funding for the Rwandan deployment in northern Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, is set to expire in May, and discussions about a possible renewal have reportedly not yet been planned, Bloomberg reported on March 12.

Mozambique: EU To Decide on Renewal of Funding for Rwandan Deployment in Cabo Delgado

Mozambican President Daniel Chapo said his government could secure a new support program with the International Monetary Fund following an IMF staff visit to the country scheduled for March, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 15.

Mozambique: President Chapo Hints at IMF Deal by March, Eyes Debt Restructuring Thereafter

U.S. multinational energy company ExxonMobil announced that it had lifted force majeure on its $30 billion Rovuma LNG project, Reuters reported on Nov. 20.

Mozambique: ExxonMobil Lifts Force Majeure on Rovuma LNG in Major Boost to Maputo 

TotalEnergies and its partners informed the Mozambican government on Oct. 24 that they had lifted force majeure on the more than $20 billion Mozambique LNG project, Reuters reported the next day.

Mozambique: TotalEnergies Lifts Force Majeure on Mozambique LNG Project

Burkina Faso

Nigeria

South Africa

The Financial Action Task Force, or FATF, removed South Africa from its anti-money laundering and terrorism financing "grey list" after assessing that it had met all the necessary actions proposed in a 2023 plan, News24 reported on Oct. 24.

Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mozambique Removed From FATF 'Grey List'

Mozambican opposition leader, Venancio Mondlane, has been sworn in as a member of the Council of State, an advisory body to the president, Club of Mozambique reported Sept. 2.

Mozambique: Opposition Leader Takes Seat on Presidential Advisory Council

Mozambican Defense Minister Cristovao Artur Chume is leading a delegation of high-ranking Mozambican defense officials to Rwanda for three days, during which he has already met with his counterpart, Juvenal Marizamunda, Club of Mozambique reported on Aug. 25.

Mozambique: Defense Minister's Trip to Rwanda Highlights Strengthening Security Partnership 

Assessments

Rwandan soldiers patrol in Mocimboa da Praia, northern Mozambique, on Aug. 12, 2021. 

Rwanda is unlikely to withdraw all its troops from Cabo Delgado in the short term, but a partial drawdown is possible if the EU doesn't approve fresh funding, which would degrade Mozambique's capacity to counter jihadist militants in the gas-rich region.

Will Rwanda Withdraw Troops From Northern Mozambique?

Tanzania

A Rwandan policeman (R) and a Rwandan soldier (L) guard TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project in Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique, on Sept. 29, 2022.

Mozambique's LNG projects will likely progress in 2026 amid a safer security environment, but the economic windfall remains years away.

Mozambique's LNG Sector Turns a Corner Amid Megaproject Reboot

Sub-Saharan Africa

Benin

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mali

Niger

Sudan

Togo

United States

Structures destroyed in U.S. strikes on jihadist targets in Offa, Nigeria, are seen on Dec. 27, 2025.

New U.S. military action would most likely target jihadist groups, especially in West Africa, but limited strikes in Sudan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo to force belligerents there to de-escalate also cannot be ruled out.

The Outlook for New U.S. Strikes in Africa

A column of Tanzanian soldiers drives past electoral posters of incumbent Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Zanzibar President Hussein Ali Mwinyi in Stone Town on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The Tanzanian government's harsh repression of opposition voices will maintain risks of civil unrest and siphon security forces away from outer regions, creating power vacuums in the south for jihadists to exploit.

Ongoing Repression in Tanzania Shows No Signs of Letting Up

Republic of the Congo

Somalia

Syria

Afghanistan

A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.

The Islamic State's main threat to the West in 2026 will remain its ability to inspire lone-actor violence, though in the coming years the group's African, Afghan and Syrian branches may become increasingly capable of directing mass casualty attacks in Western countries.

The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West

South Sudan

Burundi

Ethiopia

Kenya

Malawi

Uganda

Zambia

China

Japan

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

Over the next decade, Kenya and Tanzania will compete for the title of East Africa's leading trade gateway, particularly as global demand for Central Africa's critical minerals grows. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 1 

Central African Republic

A Rwandan soldier walks in front of a burned truck near Palma in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region on Sept. 22, 2021. 

Rwanda’s expanding troop deployments in other African countries seek to enhance its regional political and economic influence, but entail risks that could harm its operations and reputation.

Rwanda's Growing Military Influence in Africa: Opportunities and Risks

Mexico

South Korea

United Kingdom

Security personnel walk on a road with buses blocking an entrance gate to protect impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol from a possible second arrest in Seoul on Jan. 6. If Yoon is not arrested, the opposition could again seek to impeach the country's acting president due to his insufficient support for the arrest efforts, worsening foreign perceptions of political instability in South Korea.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Mozambique's President Takes Office, the U.K. Chancellor Visits China

Protesters in Maputo prepare to burn a flag of Mozambique's ruling Frelimo party on Oct. 24, 2024. 

The growing economic toll of the unrest will increase the incentives for President-elect Chapo to reach a deal with opposition leader Mondlane, though this would risk triggering infighting within the ruling Frelimo party.

Mozambique's Post-Election Crisis Reaches a Critical Juncture

France

Anti-riot police officers with dogs walk past burning barricades made by protesters in Maputo, Mozambique, on Nov. 7, 2024. 

The Weekly Rundown: A New French Government, a Ruling on Mozambique's Disputed Election

Media

Podcasts

Are there viable paths to a peaceful resolution?

Essential Geopolitics: Evolution of the Post-Election Violence in Mozambique

Brazil

Iran

Israel

Tunisia

Germany

Ukraine

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Located in southeastern Africa, Mozambique is bordered by Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Swaziland. With a coastline of roughly 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles), the majority of Mozambique's 23 million people reside in port cities. The capital, Maputo, is the largest city and the country's core — a result of its natural harbor and proximity to the dominant economy of South Africa.    Founded in the 16th century by Portuguese seafarers seeking maritime resupply stations to and from Asia, explorers soon ventured inland for land and resources. Portuguese expansion was contained by rival colonial powers, which controlled the mountainous highlands to Mozambique's west. As a result, Mozambique is a low-lying landscape prone to malaria. The country's borders, made by European mapmakers, are Mozambique's main geographic challenge, as they do not factor in ethnic boundaries.     Following its independence from Portugal in 1975, Mozambique struggled — often in armed conflict — to balance the country's two main ethnic groups. The Shangaan of southern Mozambique absorbed the colonial infrastructure concentrated in the core region. This enabled them to repel and contain the Shona of central Mozambique and other ethnic groups in the northern parts of the country.     Since the end of its civil war in 1992, Mozambique has had one of Africa's highest economic growth rates. Recent exploration found a large coal basin in central Mozambique and a globally significant offshore natural gas basin in the north. These resources will force government attention away from the southern core to regions it must no longer sequester and now engage. Exploiting these natural resources without exacerbating ethnic tensions will test Mozambique's fragile unity.

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Mozambique: Rwanda Hints at Troop Withdrawal if Military Deployment 'Not Appreciated'

Mozambique: EU To Decide on Renewal of Funding for Rwandan Deployment in Cabo Delgado

Mozambique: President Chapo Hints at IMF Deal by March, Eyes Debt Restructuring Thereafter

Mozambique: ExxonMobil Lifts Force Majeure on Rovuma LNG in Major Boost to Maputo

Mozambique: TotalEnergies Lifts Force Majeure on Mozambique LNG Project

Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mozambique Removed From FATF 'Grey List'

Mozambique: Opposition Leader Takes Seat on Presidential Advisory Council

Mozambique: Defense Minister's Trip to Rwanda Highlights Strengthening Security Partnership

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support