Democratic Republic of the Congo

Malawi

Rwanda

Military & Security

Politics

The Rwandan-backed Alliance for the Congo River/M23 rebel coalition seized the Democratic Republic of the Congo's town of Nyabibwe in an apparent violation of the unilateral ceasefire the group declared on Feb. 3, but said the move was in response to attacks from the Congolese military, Reuters reported on Feb. 5.

Congo: Malawi Prepares Exit Despite Apparent Breach of Ceasefire as AFC/M23 Appoint Local Government Officials   

The Rwanda-backed AFC/M23 rebel coalition unilaterally declared that it would abide by a ceasefire with Congolese forces and their allies in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo from Feb. 4, citing humanitarian reasons and added that the group was not seeking to seize Bukavu, the provincial capital of South Kivu, Reuters reported Feb. 3.

Congo: AFC/M23 Unilaterally Announces Ceasefire Ahead of Tshisekedi-Kagame Meeting

Burundi

South Africa

Uganda

Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye warned against a regionalization of the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and accused Rwanda of "preparing something" against Burundi, Radio France Internationale reported on Feb. 2. 

Congo: Burundi Warns of Regional War as South African Forces Languish, Uganda Deploys Troops

South African Defense Minister Angie Motshekga said South African President Cyril Ramaphosa had warned Rwandan President Paul Kagame that further fatalities among South African forces deployed to the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo would be tantamount to a "declaration of war" and require Pretoria to "defend our people," the Financial Times reported on Jan. 30.

South Africa: Defense Minister Warns Rwanda Against More South African Troop Deaths in Congo

The Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group progressed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's eastern South Kivu province to the town of Nyabibwe, located 100 kilometers (60 miles) by road from the provincial capital Bukavu, Le Potentiel reported on Jan. 30. 

Congo: EAC Calls for Direct Talks With M23 Amid Rebels Gains, Uganda Adopts 'Forward Defensive Posture'

In an address to the nation, President of the Democratic Republic of Congo Felix Tshisekedi said the Congolese military would deliver a "vigorous" response to the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group following its seizure of Goma, which he said was paving the way for an "escalation endangering the entire Great Lakes region," Radio Okapi reported on Jan. 30.

Congo: Tshisekedi Vows Counteroffensive Against M23 as SADC Mulls Troop Withdrawal

The M23, a Rwandan-backed rebel group active in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, established control over most of Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu, and began moving toward Bukavu, the provincial capital of South Kivu, Reuters reported on Jan. 29.

Congo, Rwanda: M23 Gains Ground as AFC Vows To March on Kinshasa, Remove Tshisekedi 

Protestors attacked the embassies of the United States, France, Belgium, Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, following the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group's offensive on the eastern city of Goma, Reuters reported on Jan. 28.

Congo: Multiples Embassies and Shops Looted in Kinshasa, M23 Seized Goma Airport

Assessments

Angola

An M23 fighter stands in the foreground as detained Congolese soldiers are loaded onto trucks on Jan. 30, 2025, in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo. 

Unless the Congolese government agrees to enter direct talks, Rwanda-backed rebels will likely resume their advance toward the city of Bukavu, whose fall would expose Congo to mounting instability, including nationwide unrest and a potential military coup.

Fighting in Eastern Congo Reaches a Crossroads as Rebels Press Southward

Media

Podcasts

Essential Geopolitics: Increased Conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Canada

Mexico

United States

Israel

United Kingdom

Trucks wait to enter United States on Nov. 26, 2024, at the Otay crossing port in Tijuana, Baja California state, Mexico.

Economics

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump's Tariffs, Congo Braces for More Fighting in the East

A member of the M23 armed group walks alongside residents through a neighborhood in Goma, eastern Congo, on Jan. 27, 2025. 

The M23's entry into the eastern city will give Tshisekedi little choice but to engage in politically risky talks with the Rwanda-backed rebel group, or allow the conflict to expand and escalate.

M23 Advances in Goma Put Congo's President in a Tight Spot

South Sudan

Central African Republic

Mozambique

A Rwandan soldier walks in front of a burned truck near Palma in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region on Sept. 22, 2021. 

Rwanda’s expanding troop deployments in other African countries seek to enhance its regional political and economic influence, but entail risks that could harm its operations and reputation.

Rwanda's Growing Military Influence in Africa: Opportunities and Risks

What is the future trajectory of the peace process?

Essential Geopolitics: Implications of Cancelled Peace Talks between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda

South Korea

Germany

Russia

A sign reading ''leader of insurgents'' on a photo of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's face is held up during a protest calling for Yoon's ouster in Seoul, South Korea, on Dec. 8, 2024. 

The Weekly Rundown: Putin's Annual Press Conference, Another Impeachment Vote in South Korea

China

Europe

Frelimo electoral posters are plastered on a wall in Maputo, Mozambique, on Aug. 24, 2024, the first day of the presidential campaign season ahead of the general election on Oct. 9, 2024.

Energy

Global Elections

Mozambique's upcoming general election will likely bring another five years of Frelimo rule, though an independent candidate is drawing LNG contracts to the forefront of the campaign season.

Mozambique's General Election Brings LNG Contracts Centerstage

Congolese soldiers sit in a military vehicle in Kamanyola, a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The intensifying fight against M23 rebels in eastern Congo risks triggering border clashes with Rwanda that could threaten Congolese President Tshisekedi's government and risk disrupting Congo's cobalt exports.

Where Is the Conflict in Eastern Congo Headed?

Sub-Saharan Africa

Cote d'Ivoire

Eritrea

Senegal

Sudan

Togo

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

Snapshots

M23 fighters guard the area during a meeting between the rebel group and East African Regional Force (EACRF) officials at the Rumangabo camp in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Jan. 6, 2023.

The latest flare-up over an alleged airspace violation increases the risk of Congolese retaliatory measures that could limit the progress of peace processes in eastern Congo.

Rwanda's Attack on a Congolese Jet Escalates Border Tensions

We discuss the latest flare-up of violence near the country's eastern border with Rwanda and what it means for other nearby nations. 


Essential Geopolitics: What’s Going on in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?

Rwanda is a landlocked African country located in Central and East Africa. It is bordered by Uganda to the north, Tanzania to the east, Burundi to the south and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the west.    The country is firmly ensconced in Africa's Great Lakes region, which is dominated by bodies of water, such as Lake Victoria, that have acted as regional trade and communication thoroughfares for centuries or longer. Rwanda thus shares some linguistic and cultural similarities with Uganda, Kenya, Burundi and other Great Lakes countries. These ties have helped fuel the development of the East African Community, an intergovernmental organization charged with greater integration among its members.    Rwanda's greatest challenge is twofold. First, it must manage its ethnic diversity. The ethnic cleavages that were developed and fostered under Belgian colonialism helped drive the country to one of the 20th century's worst genocides. Since 1994, the capital city of Kigali has clamped down on many forms of dissent in order to maintain internal order. A critical question going forward is if Rwanda's political system can reform and open up to foster deeper reconciliation in the years ahead.    Rwanda must also manage its landlocked position. With no access to the sea, Rwanda must manage the high costs of doing business, in terms of exports and imports, and remains dependent on maintaining good relations with its coastal neighbors. In order to mitigate these constraints, Rwanda has tried to turn itself into the "Singapore of Central Africa," improving its internal infrastructure and pushing for regional infrastructure projects to help link it to markets beyond.

SITUATION REPORTS

Congo: Malawi Prepares Exit Despite Apparent Breach of Ceasefire as AFC/M23 Appoint Local Government Officials

Congo: AFC/M23 Unilaterally Announces Ceasefire Ahead of Tshisekedi-Kagame Meeting

Congo: Burundi Warns of Regional War as South African Forces Languish, Uganda Deploys Troops

South Africa: Defense Minister Warns Rwanda Against More South African Troop Deaths in Congo

Congo: EAC Calls for Direct Talks With M23 Amid Rebels Gains, Uganda Adopts 'Forward Defensive Posture'

Congo: Tshisekedi Vows Counteroffensive Against M23 as SADC Mulls Troop Withdrawal

Congo, Rwanda: M23 Gains Ground as AFC Vows To March on Kinshasa, Remove Tshisekedi

Congo: Multiples Embassies and Shops Looted in Kinshasa, M23 Seized Goma Airport

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