Kenya

Somalia

Military & Security

Politics

Kenya's Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen said that the Kenyan government had launched an investigation into the alleged presence of forces from Somalia's Jubaland state in the town of Mandera in northeastern Kenya, Citizen Digital reported on Sept. 3.

Kenya, Somalia: Tensions Rise in Northeast Over Alleged Presence of Jubaland Forces

Somalia's federal government and a faction of the opposition within the Somali Salvation Forum reached an agreement on the 2026 elections, RFI reported on Aug. 26.

Somalia: President and Some Opposition Leaders Reach Agreement on Upcoming Elections

Ahead of the planned 2026 elections, the Somali federal government warned opposition figures that any attempt at armed rebellion in the capital, Mogadishu, would be met with force, Garowe Online reported on Aug. 24.

Somalia: Government Threatens Crackdown on Opposition

Ethiopia

Somalia's Gedo Regional Governor Abdirashid Janan, who is aligned with Somalia's federal government, claimed that Ethiopian troops deployed in Gedo Region have issued a three-day ultimatum to Somali federal forces to vacate the town of Beled Hawo, located near the border with Kenya and Ethiopia, Garowe Online reported Aug. 6.

Somalia: Ethiopian Troops Allegedly Issue Ultimatum For Federal Forces to Leave Border Town 

United States

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Economics

Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland offered the United States access to a military base in its territory as well as critical mineral deals in exchange for recognition of its independence, Bloomberg reported on July 30. 

Somalia, U.S.: Somaliland Offers Access to Military Base, Mineral Deals in Return for U.S. Recognition

Clashes between forces loyal to Jubaland state and those linked to the federal government erupted in Somalia's town of Dollow on July 27 and 28, Garowe Online reported on July 28. 

Somalia: Fresh Clashes Erupt Between Federal Government and Jubaland Forces

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Somalia's federal government accused the autonomous state of Puntland of "hijacking" the Comoros-flagged MV Sea World vessel, which was reportedly transporting Turkish weapons bound to Turkey's Camp TURKSOM in Mogadishu, and called for the immediate release of the ship from Bosaso port, The Defense Post reported on July 24.

Somalia: Turkish Arms Seizure Heightens Tensions Between Federal Government and Puntland

Ethiopian authorities said they arrested 82 individuals suspected of links to the Islamic State Somalia Province, which operates in neighboring Somalia's Puntland region, Addis Standard reported on July 16. 

Ethiopia: Security Forces Reportedly Arrest 82 Suspected Islamic State Operatives

Assessments

Djibouti

The flag of Somaliland is seen during a political rally in Hargeisa on Nov. 8, 2024.

The United States is growing more likely to recognize Somaliland's statehood to secure basing rights in the territory, which would likely roil U.S.-Somalia relations and risk plunging Somalia into crisis.

Assessing the Prospect of the U.S. Recognizing Somaliland's Independence

Columns

On Geopolitics

South Sudan

Chad

Sudan

Uganda

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

Egypt

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Europe

Philippe Lazzarini (C), the commissioner general for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, attends a humanitarian conference for Gaza in Cairo, Egypt, on Dec. 2, 2024, amid the continuing Israel-Hamas war.

Egypt's economic limitations will continue to restrain its assertiveness in foreign policy, constraining its ability to project power in the region.

Egypt's Economic Priorities Sideline Assertive Foreign Policy

An illustration of the Ethiopian and Somali flags.

The countries’ commitment to negotiate maritime access reduces immediate conflict risks and could enable Ethiopia to secure leasing rights at Somali ports, but tensions will likely resurge if the two sides fail to finalize a deal.

Ethiopia and Somalia Crack Open the Door To Compromise on Maritime Access

A Somali National Army soldier participates in a military drill in Mogadishu on March 19, 2024.

Egypt and Somalia's deepening security coordination risks triggering armed clashes with Ethiopia that could undermine regional counterterrorism efforts and inflame ethnic tensions.

The Horn of Africa Braces for Conflict as an Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape

Media

Podcasts

What does Somalia's security landscape look like for the next five to 10 years?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Somalia

Eritrea

Internally displaced people walk past the Tigrayan flag at the Tsehaye camp in Ethiopia's Shire, Tigray region, on July 16, 2024. 

Factionalism within the Tigray region's ruling party raises the prospect of resurging clashes in the region, threatening to undermine Ethiopia's recent peace and economic gains.

Tigray's Leadership Tussle Bodes Ill for Ethiopia

Haiti

U.S. President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden pose with Kenyan President William Ruto (center), alongside his wife and children, as they arrive for a State Dinner at the White House on May 23, 2024. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

For Kenya, stronger ties with the U.S. could unlock new investment and diplomatic opportunities, but bilateral relations could weaken if Nairobi draws down its police deployment in Haiti, or if Trump reenters the White House.

What To Expect From Stronger U.S.-Kenya Ties

A photo of the Somali flag.

As Somalia’s president moves to strengthen the country’s fragile state institutions, disputes over constitutional reforms threaten to deepen domestic and regional challenges.

Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad

Yemen

China

India

A map of the waters off the coast of Somalia. A sustained resurgence in Somali piracy would put additional pressure on the global shipping industry, but its impact will likely be limited compared to that seen in the late 2000s.

A sustained resurgence in Somali piracy would put additional pressure on the global shipping industry, but its impact will likely be limited compared to that seen in the late 2000s.

The Implications of Resurging Pirate Attacks off Somalia's Coast

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attends a press conference in Rome, Italy, on Feb. 6, 2023. 

The implementation of the deal, which will grant land-locked Ethiopia access to the Berbera port in exchange for recognizing Somaliland's independence, could reshape the politics of the Horn of Africa.

The Drivers and Risks of Ethiopia's Historic Pact With Somaliland

What are the implications of ATMIS' withdrawal from Somalia?

Essential Geopolitics: Somalia's Security Outlook

Located on the Horn of Africa, Somalia shares borders with Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the west and Kenya to the south. To the north and east along the Indian Ocean, the country has the second-longest coastline in Africa.    Many have classified Somalia as the ultimate failed state, as civil conflict has gripped the country for decades. Some of Somalia's problems stem from the artificiality of the country's borders, as large ethnic Somali populations reside on the other side of the border in Ethiopia and Kenya. This weakness precipitated frequent external challenges to the country, especially during the Cold War when the United States and the Soviet Union staged proxy battles for influence in   Ethiopia and Somalia.    Somalia's biggest challenge lies in addressing a potent Islamist insurgency, followed closely by the need to reconstruct extremely fragile or nonexistent institutions. In addition to the threat posed by Islamist groups such as al Shabaab, deep-seated clan divisions have hindered efforts to foster unity. For example, the Somali National Army has received foreign financial support and training for many years, but it is largely incapable of defending the country amid its own internal divisions.    Furthermore, Ethiopia, the region's landlocked giant, is eager to prevent Somalia from re-emerging as a regional threat, as it did in the 1970s. The massive internal and external challenges facing Mogadishu suggest that international efforts to stabilize the country will continue for years to come.

SITUATION REPORTS

Kenya, Somalia: Tensions Rise in Northeast Over Alleged Presence of Jubaland Forces

Somalia: President and Some Opposition Leaders Reach Agreement on Upcoming Elections

Somalia: Government Threatens Crackdown on Opposition

Somalia: Ethiopian Troops Allegedly Issue Ultimatum For Federal Forces to Leave Border Town

Somalia, U.S.: Somaliland Offers Access to Military Base, Mineral Deals in Return for U.S. Recognition

Somalia: Fresh Clashes Erupt Between Federal Government and Jubaland Forces

Somalia: Turkish Arms Seizure Heightens Tensions Between Federal Government and Puntland

Ethiopia: Security Forces Reportedly Arrest 82 Suspected Islamic State Operatives

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support