Ethiopia

Somalia

Military & Security

Ethiopia denied accusations by Somalia's federal government that Ethiopian security forces had conducted an "unprovoked" attack on Somali security forces in the border town of Dolow, Jubaland state, Addis Standard reported Dec.24.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Ethiopia Denies Accusations by Somalia of Attack on Border Town 

Somalia's federal government is expected to allow Ethiopian troops to take part in the new African Union peacekeeping mission set to start in January 2025, Hiiraan Online reported on Dec. 19, citing unnamed diplomatic sources.

Somalia: Government May Allow Ethiopian Troops To Remain in Country

Egypt

Turkey

Politics

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Ethiopia and Somalia had agreed on a joint declaration to resolve their bilateral dispute over Ethiopia's maritime port deal with Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland, the Washington Post reported Dec. 11.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Ethiopia And Somalia Agree Joint Declaration to Deescalate Tensions Over Sea Access 

A brief firefight erupted between troops affiliated with Somalia's federal government and forces linked to the country's southern state of Jubaland in the locality of Ras Kamboni, Garowe Online reported Nov. 26.

Somalia: Tensions Escalate Between Federal Government and Jubaland State 

Somaliland's National Electoral Commission announced that opposition Waddani Party leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi won the territory's Nov. 13 presidential election with 63.92% of votes against 34.82% for incumbent candidate Muse Bihi Abdi, Garowe Online reported on Nov. 19.

Somalia: Opposition Leader Wins Somaliland Presidential Election

Kenya

Somalia's defense ministry confirmed on Nov. 8 that Ethiopian forces will not be part of the upcoming African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, or AUSSOM, which will replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia peacekeeping mission in January 2025, BBC Amharic reported on Nov. 10.

Somalia, Ethiopia: Somalia Officially Bars Ethiopia From New AU Mission

Eritrea

Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia agreed to advance joint security cooperation at a trilateral summit of the three countries' heads of state, Reuters reported on Oct. 10.

Africa: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia Advance Tripartite Security Partnership

The president of Somalia's Jubaland state, Ahmed Madobe, rejected proposals by federal President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to attach a term extension to a planned electoral reform, Garowe Online reported on Oct. 7.

Somalia: Tensions Rise Between Federal Government and Jubaland Over Electoral Reform

Assessments

An illustration of the Ethiopian and Somali flags.

The countries’ commitment to negotiate maritime access reduces immediate conflict risks and could enable Ethiopia to secure leasing rights at Somali ports, but tensions will likely resurge if the two sides fail to finalize a deal.

Ethiopia and Somalia Crack Open the Door To Compromise on Maritime Access

A Somali National Army soldier participates in a military drill in Mogadishu on March 19, 2024.

Egypt and Somalia's deepening security coordination risks triggering armed clashes with Ethiopia that could undermine regional counterterrorism efforts and inflame ethnic tensions.

The Horn of Africa Braces for Conflict as an Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape

Media

Podcasts

What does Somalia's security landscape look like for the next five to 10 years?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Somalia

Internally displaced people walk past the Tigrayan flag at the Tsehaye camp in Ethiopia's Shire, Tigray region, on July 16, 2024. 

Economics

Factionalism within the Tigray region's ruling party raises the prospect of resurging clashes in the region, threatening to undermine Ethiopia's recent peace and economic gains.

Tigray's Leadership Tussle Bodes Ill for Ethiopia

Haiti

United States

U.S. President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden pose with Kenyan President William Ruto (center), alongside his wife and children, as they arrive for a State Dinner at the White House on May 23, 2024. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

For Kenya, stronger ties with the U.S. could unlock new investment and diplomatic opportunities, but bilateral relations could weaken if Nairobi draws down its police deployment in Haiti, or if Trump reenters the White House.

What To Expect From Stronger U.S.-Kenya Ties

A photo of the Somali flag.

As Somalia’s president moves to strengthen the country’s fragile state institutions, disputes over constitutional reforms threaten to deepen domestic and regional challenges.

Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad

Yemen

China

India

A map of the waters off the coast of Somalia. A sustained resurgence in Somali piracy would put additional pressure on the global shipping industry, but its impact will likely be limited compared to that seen in the late 2000s.

A sustained resurgence in Somali piracy would put additional pressure on the global shipping industry, but its impact will likely be limited compared to that seen in the late 2000s.

The Implications of Resurging Pirate Attacks off Somalia's Coast

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attends a press conference in Rome, Italy, on Feb. 6, 2023. 

The implementation of the deal, which will grant land-locked Ethiopia access to the Berbera port in exchange for recognizing Somaliland's independence, could reshape the politics of the Horn of Africa.

The Drivers and Risks of Ethiopia's Historic Pact With Somaliland

What are the implications of ATMIS' withdrawal from Somalia?

Essential Geopolitics: Somalia's Security Outlook

What do al Shabaab's territorial losses mean for Somalia?

Essential Geopolitics: Al Shabaab's Recent Territorial Losses

RANE global security analyst Charles Thorson talks to Emily Donahue about the growing regional security risks posed by al Shabaab in Somalia.

Essential Geopolitics: Monitoring Al Shabaab

People wait for water with containers at a camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Baidoa, Somalia, on Feb. 13, 2022. 

Security

The Jihadist Wars

East African Integration

The crisis could aid al-Shabaab's recruitment efforts and, in turn, its ability to conduct more terrorist attacks against political leaders in the drought-stricken country.

In Somalia, Food and Water Woes Risk Boosting al-Shabaab and Derailing Elections

Located on the Horn of Africa, Somalia shares borders with Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the west and Kenya to the south. To the north and east along the Indian Ocean, the country has the second-longest coastline in Africa.    Many have classified Somalia as the ultimate failed state, as civil conflict has gripped the country for decades. Some of Somalia's problems stem from the artificiality of the country's borders, as large ethnic Somali populations reside on the other side of the border in Ethiopia and Kenya. This weakness precipitated frequent external challenges to the country, especially during the Cold War when the United States and the Soviet Union staged proxy battles for influence in   Ethiopia and Somalia.    Somalia's biggest challenge lies in addressing a potent Islamist insurgency, followed closely by the need to reconstruct extremely fragile or nonexistent institutions. In addition to the threat posed by Islamist groups such as al Shabaab, deep-seated clan divisions have hindered efforts to foster unity. For example, the Somali National Army has received foreign financial support and training for many years, but it is largely incapable of defending the country amid its own internal divisions.    Furthermore, Ethiopia, the region's landlocked giant, is eager to prevent Somalia from re-emerging as a regional threat, as it did in the 1970s. The massive internal and external challenges facing Mogadishu suggest that international efforts to stabilize the country will continue for years to come.

SITUATION REPORTS

Ethiopia, Somalia: Ethiopia Denies Accusations by Somalia of Attack on Border Town

Somalia: Government May Allow Ethiopian Troops To Remain in Country

Ethiopia, Somalia: Ethiopia And Somalia Agree Joint Declaration to Deescalate Tensions Over Sea Access

Somalia: Tensions Escalate Between Federal Government and Jubaland State

Somalia: Opposition Leader Wins Somaliland Presidential Election

Somalia, Ethiopia: Somalia Officially Bars Ethiopia From New AU Mission

Africa: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia Advance Tripartite Security Partnership

Somalia: Tensions Rise Between Federal Government and Jubaland Over Electoral Reform

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