Ethiopia

Somalia

Military & Security

Politics

The Ethiopian and Somali militaries reached an understanding aimed at strengthening security cooperation and regional stability following Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's visit to Mogadishu, Addis Standard reported on Feb. 27. 

Somalia, Ethiopia: Military Pact To Improve Regional Stability

Turkey

Ethiopia and Somalia began holding their first round of technical talks over Ethiopia's quest to secure maritime access through Somalia in Turkey, Addis Standard reported on Feb. 18.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Governments Begin Technical Talks Over Maritime Access 

United States

United Arab Emirates

U.S. airstrikes on Feb. 1 in the Bari region of Somalia's Puntland state targeted underground caves believed to be hideouts for Abdulkadir Mumin, the leader of Islamic State Somalia Province, and senior commander Abdirahman Fahiye, Garowe Online reported on Feb. 3. 

Somalia: U.S. and UAE Carry Out Airstrikes Against Islamic State Somalia Province

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Somalia's Puntland state banned the illegal entry of foreigners and instructed telecom companies to deactivate SIM cards linked to undocumented individuals as part of an effort to disrupt Islamic State financial networks, Voice of America reported on Jan. 28.

Somalia: Puntland Orchestrates Crackdown on Islamic State

Egypt

Somali State Foreign Minister Ali Balcad said obstacles hindering Ethiopia’s participation in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, or AUSSOM, had been overcome, Voice of America reported on Jan. 12.

Somalia: Government Open to Ethiopia Participating in AUSSOM

Ethiopian Defense Minister Aisha Mohammed met her Somali counterpart Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur Jama during a trip to Somalia, Addis Standard reported on Jan. 3. 

Ethiopia, Somalia: Defense Ministers Meet in Sign of Easing Bilateral Tensions 

Ethiopia denied accusations by Somalia's federal government that Ethiopian security forces had conducted an "unprovoked" attack on Somali security forces in the border town of Dolow, Jubaland state, Addis Standard reported Dec.24.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Ethiopia Denies Accusations by Somalia of Attack on Border Town 

Somalia's federal government is expected to allow Ethiopian troops to take part in the new African Union peacekeeping mission set to start in January 2025, Hiiraan Online reported on Dec. 19, citing unnamed diplomatic sources.

Somalia: Government May Allow Ethiopian Troops To Remain in Country

Assessments

An illustration of the Ethiopian and Somali flags.

The countries’ commitment to negotiate maritime access reduces immediate conflict risks and could enable Ethiopia to secure leasing rights at Somali ports, but tensions will likely resurge if the two sides fail to finalize a deal.

Ethiopia and Somalia Crack Open the Door To Compromise on Maritime Access

A Somali National Army soldier participates in a military drill in Mogadishu on March 19, 2024.

Egypt and Somalia's deepening security coordination risks triggering armed clashes with Ethiopia that could undermine regional counterterrorism efforts and inflame ethnic tensions.

The Horn of Africa Braces for Conflict as an Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape

Media

Podcasts

What does Somalia's security landscape look like for the next five to 10 years?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Somalia

Eritrea

Internally displaced people walk past the Tigrayan flag at the Tsehaye camp in Ethiopia's Shire, Tigray region, on July 16, 2024. 

Factionalism within the Tigray region's ruling party raises the prospect of resurging clashes in the region, threatening to undermine Ethiopia's recent peace and economic gains.

Tigray's Leadership Tussle Bodes Ill for Ethiopia

Kenya

Haiti

U.S. President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden pose with Kenyan President William Ruto (center), alongside his wife and children, as they arrive for a State Dinner at the White House on May 23, 2024. 

For Kenya, stronger ties with the U.S. could unlock new investment and diplomatic opportunities, but bilateral relations could weaken if Nairobi draws down its police deployment in Haiti, or if Trump reenters the White House.

What To Expect From Stronger U.S.-Kenya Ties

A photo of the Somali flag.

As Somalia’s president moves to strengthen the country’s fragile state institutions, disputes over constitutional reforms threaten to deepen domestic and regional challenges.

Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad

Yemen

China

India

A map of the waters off the coast of Somalia. A sustained resurgence in Somali piracy would put additional pressure on the global shipping industry, but its impact will likely be limited compared to that seen in the late 2000s.

A sustained resurgence in Somali piracy would put additional pressure on the global shipping industry, but its impact will likely be limited compared to that seen in the late 2000s.

The Implications of Resurging Pirate Attacks off Somalia's Coast

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attends a press conference in Rome, Italy, on Feb. 6, 2023. 

The implementation of the deal, which will grant land-locked Ethiopia access to the Berbera port in exchange for recognizing Somaliland's independence, could reshape the politics of the Horn of Africa.

The Drivers and Risks of Ethiopia's Historic Pact With Somaliland

What are the implications of ATMIS' withdrawal from Somalia?

Essential Geopolitics: Somalia's Security Outlook

What do al Shabaab's territorial losses mean for Somalia?

Essential Geopolitics: Al Shabaab's Recent Territorial Losses

RANE global security analyst Charles Thorson talks to Emily Donahue about the growing regional security risks posed by al Shabaab in Somalia.

Essential Geopolitics: Monitoring Al Shabaab

People wait for water with containers at a camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Baidoa, Somalia, on Feb. 13, 2022. 

Security

The Jihadist Wars

East African Integration

The crisis could aid al-Shabaab's recruitment efforts and, in turn, its ability to conduct more terrorist attacks against political leaders in the drought-stricken country.

In Somalia, Food and Water Woes Risk Boosting al-Shabaab and Derailing Elections

Located on the Horn of Africa, Somalia shares borders with Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the west and Kenya to the south. To the north and east along the Indian Ocean, the country has the second-longest coastline in Africa.    Many have classified Somalia as the ultimate failed state, as civil conflict has gripped the country for decades. Some of Somalia's problems stem from the artificiality of the country's borders, as large ethnic Somali populations reside on the other side of the border in Ethiopia and Kenya. This weakness precipitated frequent external challenges to the country, especially during the Cold War when the United States and the Soviet Union staged proxy battles for influence in   Ethiopia and Somalia.    Somalia's biggest challenge lies in addressing a potent Islamist insurgency, followed closely by the need to reconstruct extremely fragile or nonexistent institutions. In addition to the threat posed by Islamist groups such as al Shabaab, deep-seated clan divisions have hindered efforts to foster unity. For example, the Somali National Army has received foreign financial support and training for many years, but it is largely incapable of defending the country amid its own internal divisions.    Furthermore, Ethiopia, the region's landlocked giant, is eager to prevent Somalia from re-emerging as a regional threat, as it did in the 1970s. The massive internal and external challenges facing Mogadishu suggest that international efforts to stabilize the country will continue for years to come.

SITUATION REPORTS

Somalia, Ethiopia: Military Pact To Improve Regional Stability

Ethiopia, Somalia: Governments Begin Technical Talks Over Maritime Access

Somalia: U.S. and UAE Carry Out Airstrikes Against Islamic State Somalia Province

Somalia: Puntland Orchestrates Crackdown on Islamic State

Somalia: Government Open to Ethiopia Participating in AUSSOM

Ethiopia, Somalia: Defense Ministers Meet in Sign of Easing Bilateral Tensions

Ethiopia, Somalia: Ethiopia Denies Accusations by Somalia of Attack on Border Town

Somalia: Government May Allow Ethiopian Troops To Remain in Country

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