Ethiopia

Somalia

United States

Egypt

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

Science & Technology

The Egyptian government is open to supporting Ethiopia's push to gain maritime access to the Red Sea if Addis Ababa shows "flexibility" regarding the Nile waters dispute, The National reported on Feb. 23, quoting Egyptian sources.

Egypt, Ethiopia: Egypt Reportedly Ready To Support Ethiopia's Sea Access in Return for 'Flexibility' in Nile Talks

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Europe

Talks between Somalia's federal government and the opposition Somali Future Council, or SFC, regarding Somalia's electoral model collapsed after both parties failed to reach an agreement, Somalia Today reported on Feb. 23. 

Somalia: Talks Between Federal Government and Opposition Over Electoral Model Collapse

Eritrea

Military & Security

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed welcomed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Addis Ababa for a state visit, following which the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding to strengthen bilateral energy cooperation, CNBC Africa reported on Feb. 18. 

Ethiopia: Abiy Meets Erdogan Amid Major Military Buildup Near Tigray

Israel

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's and Somalia's defense ministers signed a new defense agreement on the sidelines of the World Defense Show in Riyadh on Feb. 9, the two governments said.

Saudi Arabia, Somalia: Defense Agreement Will Bolster Somalia's Capabilities

Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, aged 70, declared his intention to run for a third term in office in the June 2026 general election, Garowe Online reported on Feb. 8.

Somalia: President Confirms Bid for Controversial Third Term

Clashes broke out inside Somalia's federal parliament when opposition lawmakers physically blocked a scheduled session to debate proposed constitutional amendments, leading to injuries and the cancellation of proceedings, Garowe Online reported Feb 2.

Somalia: Lawmakers Clash Over Controversial Constitutional Changes

Turkey has dispatched several F-16 fighter jets and attack helicopters to Somalia, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 30, quoting sources familiar with the matter.

Somalia: Turkey Deploys F-16s To Counter al Shabaab, Strengthen Influence

Uganda

Ugandan army chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who is also President Yoweri Museveni's son, announced in a Jan. 26 post on X that Kampala intends to withdraw its troops from Somalia after nearly two decades of peacekeeping, without giving a reason.

Uganda, Somalia: Uganda's Army Chief Says Country Will Soon Withdraw Troops From Somalia

Columns

On Geopolitics

Sudan

Iran

Iraq

Lebanon

Libya

Syria

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

Assessments

Palestinian Territories

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (R) inspect the honor guard during an official welcoming ceremony at the presidential complex in Ankara, Turkey, on June 22, 2022.

After years of discord, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are finding common ground as they increasingly position themselves against Emirati- and Israeli-backed regional initiatives. 

Saudi Arabia and Turkey's New Regional Alignment

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

Snapshots

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Mozambique

Republic of the Congo

Afghanistan

A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.

The Islamic State's main threat to the West in 2026 will remain its ability to inspire lone-actor violence, though in the coming years the group's African, Afghan and Syrian branches may become increasingly capable of directing mass casualty attacks in Western countries.

The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

Djibouti

The flag of Somaliland is seen during a political rally in Hargeisa on Nov. 8, 2024.

The United States is growing more likely to recognize Somaliland's statehood to secure basing rights in the territory, which would likely roil U.S.-Somalia relations and risk plunging Somalia into crisis.

Assessing the Prospect of the U.S. Recognizing Somaliland's Independence

South Sudan

Chad

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

Qatar

Philippe Lazzarini (C), the commissioner general for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, attends a humanitarian conference for Gaza in Cairo, Egypt, on Dec. 2, 2024, amid the continuing Israel-Hamas war.

Egypt's economic limitations will continue to restrain its assertiveness in foreign policy, constraining its ability to project power in the region.

Egypt's Economic Priorities Sideline Assertive Foreign Policy

An illustration of the Ethiopian and Somali flags.

The countries’ commitment to negotiate maritime access reduces immediate conflict risks and could enable Ethiopia to secure leasing rights at Somali ports, but tensions will likely resurge if the two sides fail to finalize a deal.

Ethiopia and Somalia Crack Open the Door To Compromise on Maritime Access

A Somali National Army soldier participates in a military drill in Mogadishu on March 19, 2024.

Egypt and Somalia's deepening security coordination risks triggering armed clashes with Ethiopia that could undermine regional counterterrorism efforts and inflame ethnic tensions.

The Horn of Africa Braces for Conflict as an Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape

Media

Podcasts

What does Somalia's security landscape look like for the next five to 10 years?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Somalia

Located on the Horn of Africa, Somalia shares borders with Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the west and Kenya to the south. To the north and east along the Indian Ocean, the country has the second-longest coastline in Africa.    Many have classified Somalia as the ultimate failed state, as civil conflict has gripped the country for decades. Some of Somalia's problems stem from the artificiality of the country's borders, as large ethnic Somali populations reside on the other side of the border in Ethiopia and Kenya. This weakness precipitated frequent external challenges to the country, especially during the Cold War when the United States and the Soviet Union staged proxy battles for influence in   Ethiopia and Somalia.    Somalia's biggest challenge lies in addressing a potent Islamist insurgency, followed closely by the need to reconstruct extremely fragile or nonexistent institutions. In addition to the threat posed by Islamist groups such as al Shabaab, deep-seated clan divisions have hindered efforts to foster unity. For example, the Somali National Army has received foreign financial support and training for many years, but it is largely incapable of defending the country amid its own internal divisions.    Furthermore, Ethiopia, the region's landlocked giant, is eager to prevent Somalia from re-emerging as a regional threat, as it did in the 1970s. The massive internal and external challenges facing Mogadishu suggest that international efforts to stabilize the country will continue for years to come.

SITUATION REPORTS

Egypt, Ethiopia: Egypt Reportedly Ready To Support Ethiopia's Sea Access in Return for 'Flexibility' in Nile Talks

Somalia: Talks Between Federal Government and Opposition Over Electoral Model Collapse

Ethiopia: Abiy Meets Erdogan Amid Major Military Buildup Near Tigray

Saudi Arabia, Somalia: Defense Agreement Will Bolster Somalia's Capabilities

Somalia: President Confirms Bid for Controversial Third Term

Somalia: Lawmakers Clash Over Controversial Constitutional Changes

Somalia: Turkey Deploys F-16s To Counter al Shabaab, Strengthen Influence

Uganda, Somalia: Uganda's Army Chief Says Country Will Soon Withdraw Troops From Somalia

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support