South Sudan

Military & Security

Politics

Heavy gunfire erupted in South Sudan's capital of Juba on the evening of Nov. 21 near the residence of the country's former spy chief, Gen. Akol Koor Kuc, Reuters reported Nov. 22.

South Sudan: Clashes Erupt in Juba Near Former Spy Chief's Residence 

Deng Bol Aruai Bol, chair of the Common People's Alliance party and former leader of the Red Army Foundation, urged peaceful protests against the South Sudanese government's decision to extend the country's transitional period by two years, Sudans Post reported on Sept. 17.

South Sudan: Opposition Leader Calls for Protests After Transitional Period Extended

Sudan

Economics

Energy

South Sudan and the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, unveiled a joint security plan to ensure South Sudan resumes crude oil exports through the Petrodar pipeline, which connects oil fields in South Sudan's Upper Nile state to Port Sudan, Sudan Tribune reported on Sept. 16. 

Sudan, South Sudan: Juba Reaches Deal With SAF To Resume Crude Oil Exports

Ethiopia

Egypt

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Ethiopia informed the U.N. Security Council that it had submitted a ratified version of the Nile Basin Initiative's Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) to the African Union on Aug. 14, Addis Standard reported Sept. 9.

Ethiopia: Country Submits Ratified Nile Basin Cooperation Deal to the African Union 

Riek Machar, South Sudan's vice president and leader of the armed opposition faction, rejected the Dec. 22 election date proposed by the National Election Commission, Reuters reported on July 8.

South Sudan: Vice President Rejects Election Date and Security Bill

Djibouti

Kenya

Kenyan authorities unveiled plans to develop a special economic zone (SEZ) in the port town of Lamu, Business Daily reported May 15.

Kenya: Authorities Unveil Plans for Special Economic Zone in Lamu as Part of Transport Masterplan 

Uganda

Head of the U.N. Mission in South Sudan Nicholas Haysom warned that Sudan’s civil war was spilling over into South Sudan, the Sudan Tribune reported on Feb. 20. 

Sudan, South Sudan: U.N. Chief Warns Sudan's Civil War Spilling Over Into South Sudan 

South Sudan's Vice President Riek Machar called for a credible and peaceful general election, expected to be held in December 2024, and set conditions under which they should be conducted, the Sudan Tribune reported on Feb. 19.

South Sudan: Vice President Sets Out Key Conditions for 2024 Election

Assessments

Chad

Sudanese army soldiers patrol an area in Khartoum on Nov. 3, 2024.

The warring sides' deep distrust and their external backers' competing interests portend a protracted conflict that may expand into South Sudan and Chad, and heighten jihadist activity.

The Security Implications of Sudan's Ongoing Civil War

Sub-Saharan Africa

Ghana

Senegal

South Africa

Supporters of former South African President Jacob Zuma sing and chant in Tembisa, South Africa, during a recruitment drive for Zuma's newly launched uMkhonto we Sizwe party on Jan. 21, 2024.

Of the 13 countries holding elections this year, Senegal, South Africa, Chad, Ghana and South Sudan's ballots will likely be the most politically and economically impactful.

Previewing Sub-Saharan Africa's 2024 Elections

Snapshots

South Sudanese military police officers sit on a pickup truck as they monitor the area during a deployment ceremony for South Sudan's unified forces at the Luri Military Training Center in Juba on Nov. 15, 2023. 

If a coup destabilizes South Sudan's fragile power-sharing government, the country could return to civil war.

Coup Rumors in South Sudan Highlight Continued Risk of Political Instability and Civil War 

Cote d'Ivoire

Eritrea

Rwanda

Togo

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

Workers load luggage onto a vehicle that belongs to refugees from Sudan who entered Ethiopia in Metema on May 5, 2023.

South Sudan's tenuous peace wavers as Sudan's civil war rages on, placing the broader region at risk of a humanitarian crisis.

Sudan's Civil War Endangers South Sudan's Fragile Peace

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burundi

Central African Republic

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mali

Mozambique

Nigeria

Tanzania

Zimbabwe

Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

The president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, speaks during the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Feb. 5, 2022.

Security

East African Integration

Congo's ports will grant the East African Community access to the Atlantic Ocean, but the country's overall poor infrastructure and security will limit the volume of trade with other bloc members. 

How Congo's EAC Membership Will Alter Trade in East Africa

Global Perspectives

Contributor Perspectives

Protests against Sudanese President Omar al Bashir have intensified in recent weeks, including some that erupted during a pair of African Champions League soccer matches last month.

In a twist on the athlete-led political statements seen at some sporting events, spectators in Sudan have turned recent soccer matches into a venue of protest.

When Stadiums Become Venues for Dissent

Media

North Korea

Syria

Videos

The unexpected announcement of a U.S. pullout left Syria's Kurds scrambling to find a new ally, fearing that the loss of Western support will leave them exposed in the event of a long-threatened Turkish assault. 

The Syrian Civil War

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

In this short video, Stratfor Global Security Analyst Analyst Thomas Abi-Hanna discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • December 31, 2018

Aid workers have fled the hardest-hit region as the country's civil war continues to rage.

South Sudan: Famine Affecting 100,000 Is Expected to Spread

Despite its recent success, the bloc will have a hard time achieving its bold agenda.

East Africa has been blessed, at least for the past decade, with a level of political stability rarely found on the African continent. Amid this period of relative calm, the East African Community (EAC) has enjoyed unbridled growth and rapid progress toward fulfilling its mission to merge its members -- Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and, most recently, South Sudan -- into a single, federated state.

East Africa: Where Ambition Meets Reality

A deal between the ruling government and the opposition is unlikely in the near future, but so is the resumption of civil war. 

For South Sudan, Peace Is Still a Distant Prospect

South Sudan is a landlocked state in East-Central Africa whose capital is Juba. The country is bordered by Sudan to the north, Ethiopia to the east, Kenya, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the south, as well as the Central African Republic to the west.    South Sudan is also the youngest country in the world. Since gaining independence from Sudan in 2011, it has experienced ongoing instability, including civil war and famine. Amid the nascent country's many problems, South Sudan's main challenge is the management of its various ethnic groups. Indeed, much of the nation's civil war has stemmed from battles for power between its major ethnic groups.    The country's lack of sea access has also restricted its economic prospects because of the associated high cost of imports and exports. As it is, transport links throughout Central and East Africa are poor, but South Sudan's logistical problems are naturally exacerbated by its instability and violence.    Still, South Sudan does boast proven oil reserves – something that has driven foreign interest in the area for decades. Nevertheless, the unlikelihood that hostilities will end anytime soon, coupled with the further erosion of Juba's control over territory, has greatly complicated investment in the oil industry. Accordingly, there appears little chance that South Sudan will rectify its deep structural deficiencies and end the fighting among its major ethnic groups anytime soon.

SITUATION REPORTS

South Sudan: Clashes Erupt in Juba Near Former Spy Chief's Residence

South Sudan: Opposition Leader Calls for Protests After Transitional Period Extended

Sudan, South Sudan: Juba Reaches Deal With SAF To Resume Crude Oil Exports

Ethiopia: Country Submits Ratified Nile Basin Cooperation Deal to the African Union

South Sudan: Vice President Rejects Election Date and Security Bill

Kenya: Authorities Unveil Plans for Special Economic Zone in Lamu as Part of Transport Masterplan

Sudan, South Sudan: U.N. Chief Warns Sudan's Civil War Spilling Over Into South Sudan

South Sudan: Vice President Sets Out Key Conditions for 2024 Election

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