South Sudan

Military & Security

Politics

The house arrest of South Sudan's Vice President Riek Machar and his wife, Interior Minister Angelina Teny, has effectively ended the 2018 peace agreement that resolved the 2013-18 civil war, according to Machar's party, BBC reported on March 27. 

South Sudan: Vice President's Party Says His Arrest Ends 2018 Peace Deal

Central African Republic

Chad

Sudan

Uganda

United Arab Emirates

Yasir al-Atta, the deputy commander in chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, said Chad’s N’Djamena and Amdjarass airports were "legitimate military targets" and vowed to retaliate against the “corrupt centres of influence” in South Sudan, Reuters reported on March 24.

Sudan: SAF General Threatens Retaliatory Action Against Chad, South Sudan 

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir dismissed Upper Nile state Gov. James Odhok Oyay and appointed Gen. James Koang Chuol as his replacement following clashes between security forces loyal to Kiir and the White Army, a militia accused of affiliating with Vice President Riek Machar, Sudans Post reported on March 19. 

South Sudan: President Sacks Upper Nile Governor, Further Violating Peace Agreement

Ugandan military chief Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba said Uganda has deployed special forces to South Sudan's capital, Juba, since March 8, Reuters reported on March 11.

South Sudan: Uganda Reportedly Deploys Special Forces in Juba as Civil War Looms 

South Sudanese security forces detained petroleum and peacebuilding ministers and several senior military officials allied with Vice President Riek Machar while also deploying troops around Machar's residence in Juba, though he was able to travel to his office on March 4, Reuters reported on March 5.

South Sudan: Security Forces Detain Two Ministers and Military Officials Allied With Vice President

Energy

South Sudan deployed thousands of troops to Nasir county in Upper Nile state to enforce a disarmament campaign following recent clashes between the South Sudan People's Defense Forces and local armed youth, Sudans Post reported on Feb. 17.

South Sudan: Ongoing Clashes Highlight Fragility of 2018 Peace Agreement

Economics

South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit sacked the country's chief of defense forces, inspector general of police and central bank governor, Radio Tamazuj reported on Dec. 9.

South Sudan: President Sacks Military and Policy Chiefs, Central Bank Governor 

Heavy gunfire erupted in South Sudan's capital of Juba on the evening of Nov. 21 near the residence of the country's former spy chief, Gen. Akol Koor Kuc, Reuters reported Nov. 22.

South Sudan: Clashes Erupt in Juba Near Former Spy Chief's Residence 

Assessments

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir (right) waves as he arrives in Nairobi, Kenya, on May 9, 2024, for the launch of new peace talks with rebel groups.

Rising political tensions risk collapsing the peace deal that ended the country's last civil war, while escalating clashes in the north risk drawing in involvement from Sudan's warring parties.

South Sudan Hurtles Toward Another Civil War

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mozambique

Rwanda

A Rwandan soldier walks in front of a burned truck near Palma in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region on Sept. 22, 2021. 

Rwanda’s expanding troop deployments in other African countries seek to enhance its regional political and economic influence, but entail risks that could harm its operations and reputation.

Rwanda's Growing Military Influence in Africa: Opportunities and Risks

Sudanese army soldiers patrol an area in Khartoum on Nov. 3, 2024.

The warring sides' deep distrust and their external backers' competing interests portend a protracted conflict that may expand into South Sudan and Chad, and heighten jihadist activity.

The Security Implications of Sudan's Ongoing Civil War

Sub-Saharan Africa

Ghana

Senegal

South Africa

Supporters of former South African President Jacob Zuma sing and chant in Tembisa, South Africa, during a recruitment drive for Zuma's newly launched uMkhonto we Sizwe party on Jan. 21, 2024.

Of the 13 countries holding elections this year, Senegal, South Africa, Chad, Ghana and South Sudan's ballots will likely be the most politically and economically impactful.

Previewing Sub-Saharan Africa's 2024 Elections

Snapshots

South Sudanese military police officers sit on a pickup truck as they monitor the area during a deployment ceremony for South Sudan's unified forces at the Luri Military Training Center in Juba on Nov. 15, 2023. 

If a coup destabilizes South Sudan's fragile power-sharing government, the country could return to civil war.

Coup Rumors in South Sudan Highlight Continued Risk of Political Instability and Civil War 

Cote d'Ivoire

Eritrea

Togo

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

Workers load luggage onto a vehicle that belongs to refugees from Sudan who entered Ethiopia in Metema on May 5, 2023.

South Sudan's tenuous peace wavers as Sudan's civil war rages on, placing the broader region at risk of a humanitarian crisis.

Sudan's Civil War Endangers South Sudan's Fragile Peace

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Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

The president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, speaks during the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Feb. 5, 2022.

Security

East African Integration

Congo's ports will grant the East African Community access to the Atlantic Ocean, but the country's overall poor infrastructure and security will limit the volume of trade with other bloc members. 

How Congo's EAC Membership Will Alter Trade in East Africa

Global Perspectives

Contributor Perspectives

Protests against Sudanese President Omar al Bashir have intensified in recent weeks, including some that erupted during a pair of African Champions League soccer matches last month.

In a twist on the athlete-led political statements seen at some sporting events, spectators in Sudan have turned recent soccer matches into a venue of protest.

When Stadiums Become Venues for Dissent

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North Korea

Syria

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The unexpected announcement of a U.S. pullout left Syria's Kurds scrambling to find a new ally, fearing that the loss of Western support will leave them exposed in the event of a long-threatened Turkish assault. 

The Syrian Civil War

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

In this short video, Stratfor Global Security Analyst Analyst Thomas Abi-Hanna discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • December 31, 2018

Aid workers have fled the hardest-hit region as the country's civil war continues to rage.

South Sudan: Famine Affecting 100,000 Is Expected to Spread

South Sudan is a landlocked state in East-Central Africa whose capital is Juba. The country is bordered by Sudan to the north, Ethiopia to the east, Kenya, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the south, as well as the Central African Republic to the west.    South Sudan is also the youngest country in the world. Since gaining independence from Sudan in 2011, it has experienced ongoing instability, including civil war and famine. Amid the nascent country's many problems, South Sudan's main challenge is the management of its various ethnic groups. Indeed, much of the nation's civil war has stemmed from battles for power between its major ethnic groups.    The country's lack of sea access has also restricted its economic prospects because of the associated high cost of imports and exports. As it is, transport links throughout Central and East Africa are poor, but South Sudan's logistical problems are naturally exacerbated by its instability and violence.    Still, South Sudan does boast proven oil reserves – something that has driven foreign interest in the area for decades. Nevertheless, the unlikelihood that hostilities will end anytime soon, coupled with the further erosion of Juba's control over territory, has greatly complicated investment in the oil industry. Accordingly, there appears little chance that South Sudan will rectify its deep structural deficiencies and end the fighting among its major ethnic groups anytime soon.

SITUATION REPORTS

South Sudan: Vice President's Party Says His Arrest Ends 2018 Peace Deal

Sudan: SAF General Threatens Retaliatory Action Against Chad, South Sudan

South Sudan: President Sacks Upper Nile Governor, Further Violating Peace Agreement

South Sudan: Uganda Reportedly Deploys Special Forces in Juba as Civil War Looms

South Sudan: Security Forces Detain Two Ministers and Military Officials Allied With Vice President

South Sudan: Ongoing Clashes Highlight Fragility of 2018 Peace Agreement

South Sudan: President Sacks Military and Policy Chiefs, Central Bank Governor

South Sudan: Clashes Erupt in Juba Near Former Spy Chief's Residence

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