Chad

Sudan

Military & Security

Politics

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, announced that the army had retaken the entirety of Khartoum state from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, Sudan Tribune reported on March 26.

Sudan: Sudanese Army Retakes Khartoum as the RSF Retreats West 

South Sudan

Central African Republic

Uganda

United Arab Emirates

Yasir al-Atta, the deputy commander in chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, said Chad’s N’Djamena and Amdjarass airports were "legitimate military targets" and vowed to retaliate against the “corrupt centres of influence” in South Sudan, Reuters reported on March 24.

Sudan: SAF General Threatens Retaliatory Action Against Chad, South Sudan 

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, captured Sudan's presidential palace in the capital, Khartoum, dealing a significant blow to the rival Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, which had controlled the palace since the start of the civil war in April 2023, Sudan War Monitor reported on March 21. 

Sudan: Army Takes Control of Presidential Palace

Ugandan military chief Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba said Uganda has deployed special forces to South Sudan's capital, Juba, since March 8, Reuters reported on March 11.

South Sudan: Uganda Reportedly Deploys Special Forces in Juba as Civil War Looms 

During a visit to Egypt, Sudan's Foreign Minister Ali Youssef said the country "will not accept" any recognition of a parallel government, referring to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces' agreement with allied political and armed groups to form a rival "government of peace and unity," Voice of America reported on Feb. 24.

Sudan: Army Rejects RSF's Intention To Form Parallel Government With Allies

Russia

Russia and Sudan's Sudanese Armed Forces-led government finalized an agreement regarding the development of a Russian naval facility on the country's Red Sea coast, Sudan Tribune reported on Feb. 12. 

Sudan: Government Finalizes Agreement for Russian Naval Base  

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, plans to form a new government once it captures Sudan's entire capital city, BBC reported on Feb. 10.

Sudan: Army Plans New Government Amid Advances in Capital

Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan visited the Sudanese Armed Forces' headquarters in Khartoum for the first time since breaking a months-long siege by the rival Rapid Support Forces, Sudan Tribune reported on Jan. 26.

Sudan: Army Chief Visits Recaptured Headquarters, Vows To 'Eradicate' Rapid Support Forces

Assessments

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir (right) waves as he arrives in Nairobi, Kenya, on May 9, 2024, for the launch of new peace talks with rebel groups.

Energy

Rising political tensions risk collapsing the peace deal that ended the country's last civil war, while escalating clashes in the north risk drawing in involvement from Sudan's warring parties.

South Sudan Hurtles Toward Another Civil War

Sudanese army soldiers patrol an area in Khartoum on Nov. 3, 2024.

The warring sides' deep distrust and their external backers' competing interests portend a protracted conflict that may expand into South Sudan and Chad, and heighten jihadist activity.

The Security Implications of Sudan's Ongoing Civil War

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The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

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Cote d'Ivoire

Kenya

Mali

Niger

Libya

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Economics

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

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Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attends a signing ceremony following talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on May 23, 2024. 

Bahrain-Iran normalization would reduce risks for Manama amid rising regional tensions, but security and some political vulnerabilities remain.

Normalization With Iran Would Reduce -- but Not Eliminate -- Security Risks for Bahrain

The Mohajer 6 drone is displayed on Aug. 23, 2023, in Tehran, Iran. Through a sort of drone diplomacy, Tehran hopes to rekindle dormant ties with the Sudanese government to aid the latter in its ongoing civil war.

A stronger Sudanese government negotiating hand would result in a power-sharing structure reducing Rapid Support Forces, and by extension, UAE, influence.

Why Iran Is Sending Drones to the Sudanese Armed Forces

South Sudanese military police officers sit on a pickup truck as they monitor the area during a deployment ceremony for South Sudan's unified forces at the Luri Military Training Center in Juba on Nov. 15, 2023. 

If a coup destabilizes South Sudan's fragile power-sharing government, the country could return to civil war.

Coup Rumors in South Sudan Highlight Continued Risk of Political Instability and Civil War 

Smoke plumes billow from a fire at a lumber warehouse in southern Khartoum amidst ongoing fighting on June 7, 2023. 

As the war enters its seventh month, fighting between Sudan's army and the paramilitary RSF shows no sign of abating, with greater civilian and humanitarian hardships on the horizon.

In Sudan, Peace Remains a Distant Prospect

Eritrea

Rwanda

Senegal

Togo

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

An aerial view taken Oct. 29, 2022, of Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Saudi-UAE tensions will intensify economic, diplomatic and defense competition, with implications for business operations in both and for security in countries like Sudan and Yemen.

Saudi-UAE tensions will intensify economic, diplomatic and defense competition, with implications for business operations in both and for security in countries like Sudan and Yemen.

The Saudi-UAE Regional Rivalry Intensifies

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

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What Q3 security risks should companies expect and prepare for?

Essential Geopolitics: An Overview of RANE's Q3 Forecast

Sudan is a huge country between Northern and Central Africa which, prior to the independence of South Sudan, was the continent's largest country. Its position has long drawn the attention of outsiders, and once facilitated the birth of powerful empires and city-states.     Since declaring independence from the United Kingdom in 1955, Sudan has struggled to manage its expansive territories and ethno-regional divisions. Khartoum, the country's capital, can be viewed as a relatively isolated city-state that must command the vast spaces and people that surround it. Such a mentality helps explain Khartoum's disastrous management of the country's various rebellions and insurrections. Until recently, the country's leadership has preferred to adopt a belligerent approach to dealing with the country's many outstanding conflicts.     Because Sudan's borders do not fully align with its various ethnic groups, its internal ethnic conflicts have fueled regional conflict as well. Ethnic groups in the Darfur region of eastern Sudan spill over into neighboring Chad, driving the two countries to wage proxy warfare against each other for years by arming and financing rebels intent on revolution.     Sudan's proximity to the Middle East &mdash; as well as its cultural and religious makeup &mdash; has allowed it to build ties with powers there. Though this has benefitted Sudan by allowing it to attract investment from companies such as Saudi Arabia, it has also engendered greater scrutiny.

SITUATION REPORTS

Sudan: Sudanese Army Retakes Khartoum as the RSF Retreats West

Sudan: SAF General Threatens Retaliatory Action Against Chad, South Sudan

Sudan: Army Takes Control of Presidential Palace

South Sudan: Uganda Reportedly Deploys Special Forces in Juba as Civil War Looms

Sudan: Army Rejects RSF's Intention To Form Parallel Government With Allies

Sudan: Government Finalizes Agreement for Russian Naval Base

Sudan: Army Plans New Government Amid Advances in Capital

Sudan: Army Chief Visits Recaptured Headquarters, Vows To 'Eradicate' Rapid Support Forces

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