Iran

China

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

China is negotiating with Iran to secure safe passage of oil and liquefied natural gas tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, transit that has been heavily disrupted amid the U.S. and Israel-Iran war, according to three diplomatic sources quoted by Reuters on March 5. 

China, Iran: Beijing in Talks With Tehran for Safe Passage of Tankers

United States

Israel

Economics

European crude oil benchmark Brent broke through $90 per barrel on March 6 for the first time since April 2024, Bloomberg reported the same day.

Global: Brent Tops $90 per Barrel for the First Time in Nearly Two Years

Bahrain

Iraq

Kuwait

Lebanon

United Arab Emirates

Azerbaijan

The U.S. and Israel-Iran war has entered its second phase as U.S. and Israeli strikes have increasingly targeted Iran's underground ballistic missile sites and as the pace of Iranian attacks has slowed over the past several days, Reuters reported on March 4. 

MENA: Iran War Enters Second Phase

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin called a drone attack on the Russian-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker Arctic Metagaz in the Mediterranean a "terrorist attack," Russian state media RIA Novosti reported on March 4.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Calls LNG Tanker Strike Terrorism, Floats Gas Cutoff to Europe

Turkey

Sri Lanka

The Turkish Ministry of National Defense announced that NATO air and missile defenses had shot down an Iranian ballistic missile heading toward Turkish airspace, Reuters reported on March 4.

MENA: NATO Air Defenses Intercept Iranian Ballistic Missile, U.S. Sinks Iranian Warship

Nigeria

The average price of gasoline at Nigerian fuel stations rose from around 860 naira per liter to 970 naira per liter ($0.70 per liter or $2.65 per U.S. gallon) in the first few days of March, a close to 13% increase, after the country's Dangote refinery increased the price of its gantry by 100 naira per liter, BusinessDay reported on March 4.

Nigeria: Iran-Driven Energy Price Increases Showcase Mixed Outlook for the Economy

Venezuela

The U.S. government is discreetly building a legal case targeting Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez, which includes preparing a draft criminal indictment, Reuters reported on March 3. 

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. To Use Draft Indictment Against Rodriguez as Additional Leverage

Cuba

Cuba's President Miguel Diaz-Canel said the country should "immediately" focus on transforming its economic and social model, AP reported on March 2.

Cuba: Government To Focus on Economic and Social Transformation Amid Energy Crisis

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant energy analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant energy analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Politics of Pipelines

_Energy

Nigeria: Obstacles to Prosperity

The Battle for Mosul

A Crude Recovery

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Russia's Internal Struggle

East African Integration

Assessments

Volunteers clean up the rubble outside a government building in Tehran, Iran, that was destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes on March 4, 2026.

The war will most likely end in a tenuous ceasefire in the coming weeks, though a faster or slower truce is possible, depending on the U.S.'s political resolve to maintain its campaign against Iran.

The Iran War Will Last as Long as U.S. Political Resolve Does

U.S.-Iran Relations

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Cargo ships and tankers are seen in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Fujairah, the United Arab Emirates, on Feb. 25, 2026. 

Although most of the Middle East's crucial oil and gas assets have so far been spared, a prolonged conflict would raise the risk of material supply disruptions and price shocks, particularly for LNG markets.

How Will the Iran War Impact the World's Oil and Gas Supplies?

A woman holds a photo of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iranians protest against attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States on Feb. 28, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. 

Global Trade

Depending on the duration of maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the escalating conflict is set to subject European economies to significant energy market volatility.

European Economic Growth Likely To Suffer From Impact of U.S. and Israel-Iran War

The U.S. and the EU flags are seen side by side on Nov. 21, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium. 

By replacing Russian gas with U.S. LNG, the EU risks becoming reliant on another systemically central external supplier at a time of growing geopolitical instability and transatlantic tension.

The Strategic Risks of Europe's Pivot to U.S. LNG

Mexico

American Airlines planes sit on the tarmac at Jose Marti International Airport in Havana on Feb. 9, 2026. 

Facing imminent economic collapse and the loss of key allies, the Cuban government will likely yield to U.S. demands for market liberalization to avoid a total breakdown of state authority while attempting to preserve political control.

Economic Concessions to U.S. Offer Path for Regime Survival in Cuba

Snapshots

A digital satellite illustration shows Europe at night.

The EU enlargement chief's upcoming visit to Turkey signals an attempt to balance cautious engagement with clear strategic interests, rather than an imminent breakthrough on the country's stalled accession process.

Understanding the EU's Strategic Reengagement With Turkey

Mozambique

Rwanda

Tanzania

A Rwandan policeman (R) and a Rwandan soldier (L) guard TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project in Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique, on Sept. 29, 2022.

Mozambique's LNG projects will likely progress in 2026 amid a safer security environment, but the economic windfall remains years away.

Mozambique's LNG Sector Turns a Corner Amid Megaproject Reboot

Canada

A 3D rendering of the Canadian, U.S. and Mexican flags.

The White House is expected to utilize threats of scrapping the trilateral pact in favor of bilateral agreements as a high-stakes negotiating tactic, creating a period of intense business uncertainty and market volatility.

The Outlook for USMCA Renegotiation in 2026

Media

Forecast Webcast

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

Greenland

Denmark

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Yemen

North Korea

South Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Energy

SITUATION REPORTS

China, Iran: Beijing in Talks With Tehran for Safe Passage of Tankers

Global: Brent Tops $90 per Barrel for the First Time in Nearly Two Years

MENA: Iran War Enters Second Phase

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Calls LNG Tanker Strike Terrorism, Floats Gas Cutoff to Europe

MENA: NATO Air Defenses Intercept Iranian Ballistic Missile, U.S. Sinks Iranian Warship

Nigeria: Iran-Driven Energy Price Increases Showcase Mixed Outlook for the Economy

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. To Use Draft Indictment Against Rodriguez as Additional Leverage

Cuba: Government To Focus on Economic and Social Transformation Amid Energy Crisis

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