Americas

Paraguay

Europe

France

Belgium

Poland

Austria

Italy

Ireland

Hungary

Economics

Global Trade

Politics

EU member states gave provisional approval for the European Commission to sign the long-delayed free trade agreement with South America's Mercosur bloc, Reuters reported Jan. 9.

EU, Mercosur: EU Member States Approve Mercosur Trade Deal

United States

China

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) blacklisted all new foreign-made drones and components on Dec. 22, deeming that they pose "an unacceptable risk" to U.S. national security, Reuters reported Dec. 23.

U.S.: FCC Prohibits Approval of All New Foreign-Made Drones 

Indonesia

Indonesian officials said Jakarta and Washington had resolved all substantive issues in bilateral tariff talks and planned to formally sign a trade agreement in late January during a visit by President Prabowo Subianto to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, the South China Morning Post reported Dec. 23. 

Indonesia, U.S.: Jakarta Claims Trade Deal Issues Resolved, Paving Way for January Signing

Ukraine

Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

On Dec. 22, the European Council officially extended the European Union's sanctions against Russia for an additional six months, until July 31, 2026, the institution announced. 

EU: Brussels Extends Sanctions on Russia for Further 6 Months

Taiwan

Military & Security

Taiwanese President William Lai published an opinion piece in the Washington Post on Nov. 26 in which he proposed a $40-billion supplemental defense budget to support U.S. arms procurement and domestic arms production over eight years from 2026-2033, effectively doubling the military's procurement budget, which was $4.28 billion in 2025.

Taiwan: Proposed $40 Billion Arms Budget Could Help Seal U.S. Trade Deal

Netherlands

Cyber

The Dutch government has temporarily taken control of Chinese-owned semiconductor manufacturer Nexperia, citing risks to national and European technological security, the Financial Times reported Oct. 12.

Netherlands, China: Dutch Government Seizes Control of Chinese-Owned Chipmaker 

U.S.-China Relations

The European Commission will unveil a new steel sector package on Oct. 7 that introduces lower import quotas and higher tariffs, Reuters reported Oct. 1, citing a closed-door briefing by Industrial Strategy Commissioner Stephane Sejourne to steel associations and unions.

Europe: EU to Cut Import Quotas and Raise Tariffs Under New Steel Package

Slovakia

Energy

The European Commission unveiled its proposal for the EU's 19th package of sanctions against Russia on Sept. 19, Reuters reported the same day. The measures propose a full ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports (LNG) starting Jan. 1, 2027, a year earlier than previously planned.

EU, Russia: European Commission Proposes Faster Phaseout of Russian LNG

Assessments

Greenland

Germany

Finland

Denmark

Sweden

United Kingdom

Norway

The HDMS Knud Rasmussen ship of the Danish Navy patrols the waters off of Nuuk, Greenland, on Jan. 20, 2026. 

Trump's threatened tariffs over his bid to acquire Greenland have turned the U.S.-EU trade dispute into a high-stakes geopolitical confrontation, raising the risk of a sustained trade war that would severely strain transatlantic economic ties and NATO cohesion.

Trump's Greenland Tariff Threat Escalates Transatlantic Tensions

Columns

On Geopolitics

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Venezuela

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Iran

Israel

India

Pakistan

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

U.S.-Iran Relations

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Oman

New Zealand

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.

New trade pacts offer gains in market access and investment but India's protectionist stance on agriculture and dairy remains an obstacle to deals with the United States and European Union. 


Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Despite growing interest from Russia, China and Western powers, Central Asia will struggle to emerge as a true continental trade hub due to competing agendas, weak financing and coordination, and security and governance issues.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.

While Putin's Dec. 4-5 visit may yield some progress in defense, energy and trade cooperation, India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and continues diversifying its arms suppliers.

What To Expect as Putin Visits India

Honduras

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their bilateral meeting during the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin-Modi Meeting, Honduras General Election

While efforts by China and others to de-dollarize their international trade will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, they will do little to undermine the dollar's dominance.

The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade

Canada

The clock tower outside of Canada's parliament building is seen in Ottawa, Ontario.

Canada's push to revive its economy and diversify its trade and security ties beyond the U.S. will likely see slow progress and could prompt U.S. retaliation, while the associated deficit spending will risk long-term fiscal strain.

The High Stakes of Canada's Attempt To Pivot Away From the U.S.

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Israel is expected to soon launch another offensive against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, which will risk reigniting the civil war and exposing Gulf countries and Red Sea shipping to retaliatory attacks.

What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security

Global Trade

SITUATION REPORTS

EU, Mercosur: EU Member States Approve Mercosur Trade Deal

U.S.: FCC Prohibits Approval of All New Foreign-Made Drones

Indonesia, U.S.: Jakarta Claims Trade Deal Issues Resolved, Paving Way for January Signing

EU: Brussels Extends Sanctions on Russia for Further 6 Months

Taiwan: Proposed $40 Billion Arms Budget Could Help Seal U.S. Trade Deal

Netherlands, China: Dutch Government Seizes Control of Chinese-Owned Chipmaker

Europe: EU to Cut Import Quotas and Raise Tariffs Under New Steel Package

EU, Russia: European Commission Proposes Faster Phaseout of Russian LNG

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

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