United States

China

Economics

Global Trade

Politics

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) blacklisted all new foreign-made drones and components on Dec. 22, deeming that they pose "an unacceptable risk" to U.S. national security, Reuters reported Dec. 23.

U.S.: FCC Prohibits Approval of All New Foreign-Made Drones 

Indonesia

Indonesian officials said Jakarta and Washington had resolved all substantive issues in bilateral tariff talks and planned to formally sign a trade agreement in late January during a visit by President Prabowo Subianto to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, the South China Morning Post reported Dec. 23. 

Indonesia, U.S.: Jakarta Claims Trade Deal Issues Resolved, Paving Way for January Signing

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

On Dec. 22, the European Council officially extended the European Union's sanctions against Russia for an additional six months, until July 31, 2026, the institution announced. 

EU: Brussels Extends Sanctions on Russia for Further 6 Months

Taiwan

Military & Security

Taiwanese President William Lai published an opinion piece in the Washington Post on Nov. 26 in which he proposed a $40-billion supplemental defense budget to support U.S. arms procurement and domestic arms production over eight years from 2026-2033, effectively doubling the military's procurement budget, which was $4.28 billion in 2025.

Taiwan: Proposed $40 Billion Arms Budget Could Help Seal U.S. Trade Deal

Netherlands

Cyber

The Dutch government has temporarily taken control of Chinese-owned semiconductor manufacturer Nexperia, citing risks to national and European technological security, the Financial Times reported Oct. 12.

Netherlands, China: Dutch Government Seizes Control of Chinese-Owned Chipmaker 

U.S.-China Relations

The European Commission will unveil a new steel sector package on Oct. 7 that introduces lower import quotas and higher tariffs, Reuters reported Oct. 1, citing a closed-door briefing by Industrial Strategy Commissioner Stephane Sejourne to steel associations and unions.

Europe: EU to Cut Import Quotas and Raise Tariffs Under New Steel Package

Slovakia

Hungary

Energy

The European Commission unveiled its proposal for the EU's 19th package of sanctions against Russia on Sept. 19, Reuters reported the same day. The measures propose a full ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports (LNG) starting Jan. 1, 2027, a year earlier than previously planned.

EU, Russia: European Commission Proposes Faster Phaseout of Russian LNG

China's Ministry of Commerce on Sept. 5 announced it was placing preliminary anti-dumping duties of 15.6-62.4% on pork imports suitable for human consumption from the European Union, effective Sept. 10, Bloomberg has reported.

China, EU: Beijing Places 16-62% Anti-Dumping Duties on European Pork

Columns

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Assessments

Oman

New Zealand

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.

New trade pacts offer gains in market access and investment but India's protectionist stance on agriculture and dairy remains an obstacle to deals with the United States and European Union. 


Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Despite growing interest from Russia, China and Western powers, Central Asia will struggle to emerge as a true continental trade hub due to competing agendas, weak financing and coordination, and security and governance issues.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.

While Putin's Dec. 4-5 visit may yield some progress in defense, energy and trade cooperation, India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and continues diversifying its arms suppliers.

What To Expect as Putin Visits India

Honduras

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their bilateral meeting during the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin-Modi Meeting, Honduras General Election

While efforts by China and others to de-dollarize their international trade will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, they will do little to undermine the dollar's dominance.

The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade

Canada

The clock tower outside of Canada's parliament building is seen in Ottawa, Ontario.

Canada's push to revive its economy and diversify its trade and security ties beyond the U.S. will likely see slow progress and could prompt U.S. retaliation, while the associated deficit spending will risk long-term fiscal strain.

The High Stakes of Canada's Attempt To Pivot Away From the U.S.

Israel

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Israel is expected to soon launch another offensive against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, which will risk reigniting the civil war and exposing Gulf countries and Red Sea shipping to retaliatory attacks.

What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security

Burundi

Kenya

Rwanda

Tanzania

Uganda

The Geopolitics of Trade

Kenya and Tanzania's infrastructure buildup will support East Africa's industrialization but will also depend on a range of other factors, including regional integration, shifts in the international trading system and technological changes.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 2

South Sudan

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Malawi

Mozambique

Zambia

Japan

Over the next decade, Kenya and Tanzania will compete for the title of East Africa's leading trade gateway, particularly as global demand for Central Africa's critical minerals grows. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 1 

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

Global Trade

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: FCC Prohibits Approval of All New Foreign-Made Drones

Indonesia, U.S.: Jakarta Claims Trade Deal Issues Resolved, Paving Way for January Signing

EU: Brussels Extends Sanctions on Russia for Further 6 Months

Taiwan: Proposed $40 Billion Arms Budget Could Help Seal U.S. Trade Deal

Netherlands, China: Dutch Government Seizes Control of Chinese-Owned Chipmaker

Europe: EU to Cut Import Quotas and Raise Tariffs Under New Steel Package

EU, Russia: European Commission Proposes Faster Phaseout of Russian LNG

China, EU: Beijing Places 16-62% Anti-Dumping Duties on European Pork

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