Brazil

Politics

Ten political parties are set to control over 90% of Brazil's 5,569 city halls for the next four years, with the top five parties maintaining their leadership positions from the previous term, CNN Brasil reported Oct. 7. 

Brazil: Election Results Confirm Trend of Establishment Parties Winning Most City Halls

Argentina

Paraguay

Uruguay

France

Economics

France's new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, reiterated Paris' opposition to a free trade deal between the European Union and the Mercosur bloc of Latin American countries, adding France will seek to form a 'blocking minority' in the EU Council, Euractiv reported Sept. 13.

France, EU, South America: Paris Reiterates Opposition to EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The worst drought in Brazil's recorded history is affecting 58% of the country's territory, with many areas experiencing no rain in over 100 days and low river levels impacting hydroelectric power generation, Folha de S.Paulo reported on Sept. 4.

Brazil: Worst Drought on Record To Increase Electricity Prices

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Venezuela

Algeria

Iran

Iraq

Kuwait

Libya

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Russia

OPEC+ may delay a planned 180,000 barrel per day increase in oil production in October, Reuters reported on Sept. 4, citing three OPEC+ sources.

Global: OPEC+ Weighs Delaying Production Increase

A Brazilian Supreme Court panel confirmed Justice Alexandre de Moraes' suspension of social media network X across Brazil after the company refused to comply with court orders, g1 reported on Sept. 2. 

Brazil: Judicial Overreach To Fuel Legal Uncertainty but Unlikely To Spark Private Sector 'Witch Hunt'

Colombia

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro held a call on Aug. 14 after their Mexican counterpart Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador withdrew from the multilateral initiative to seek a mediated solution to the impasse in Venezuela following the July 28 presidential election, El Pais reported on Aug. 15.

Venezuela: Election Negotiations Unlikely To Progress, Opposition Calls Demonstrations Worldwide

United States

China

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva announced that he will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru in November and that his administration is working on a proposal related to the China-led Belt and Road Initiative, Reuters reported on July 19.

Brazil, China: Economic Ties Poised To Draw Tighter as Lula Hints at Joining BRI

Brazil's Chamber of Deputies passed a bill that includes regulations needed for the government to implement a tax reform approved in December 2023, Reuters reported on July 10.

Brazil: Multiple Exemptions to Tax Reform Regulation To Increase VAT Level

Assessments

Mozambique

Israel

Tunisia

Germany

Ukraine

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Snapshots

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a rally supporting Sao Paulo mayoral candidate Guilherme Boulos (L) on Aug. 24 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While Brazil's upcoming municipal elections will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, they will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

While the vote will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, it will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

Brazil's Municipal Elections Will Leave the Status Quo Intact

Media

Mexico

Forecast Webcast

Global Elections

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Chinese President Xi Jinping (third from left) and Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (third from right) hold a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on June 7, 2024. 

Despite China's declining investment volumes in Brazil, strengthening cooperation remains of interest to both countries, which will likely see Brasilia join the BRI -- potentially as soon as November.

The Implications of Brazil Joining China's Belt and Road Initiative

Bolivia

An illustrated map shows Mercosur countries.

Stalled trade deals and dwindling intra-bloc commerce will leave the South American trade bloc in a deadlock, likely resulting in only minor rule changes to prevent Mercosur's dissolution.

Mercosur's Latest Meeting Highlights Its Growing Stagnation

Ethiopia

South Africa

Egypt

Turkey

Europe

India

A map illustrating Turkey (in red) and the BRICS countries (in blue).

Joining BRICS would underscore Turkey's balancing act between the West and the Global South, but the organization's weaknesses will limit its potential for economic growth.

For Turkey, BRICS Is Far From a Political and Economic Panacea

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is seen at a ceremony in Brasilia, Brazil, on June 17, 2024.

Brazil's governability conditions will keep deteriorating as its left-wing president and right-leaning Congress increasingly butt heads, stalling economic reforms and undermining the country's business climate.

In Brazil, Lula's Obstacles to Passing Economic Policies Continue To Mount

Chile

Spain

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Putin Goes to China, New U.S. Tariffs on China

Palestinian Territories

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) April 12 in Dausa, India.

The Weekly Rundown: Indian Elections, Scholz Goes to China

Senegal

Haiti

Chinese President Xi Jinping on March 11, 2024, in Beijing.

The Weekly Rundown: Senegalese Presidential Elections, Xi Meets With U.S. CEOs

El Salvador

Panama

Peru

Flooding on the Rimac River on March 18, 2017, in Chosica, at the foot of the Andes east of Lima, Peru. The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

How El Nino Will Impact Latin America in 2024

Different currency exchanges are seen outside the Mexican Stock Exchange building at Reforma Avenue in Mexico City on Jan. 5, 2024. 

Mexico and Brazil are better positioned to take advantage of falling U.S. interest rates than Argentina, where political and economic uncertainty will remain high as its new president's reforms are tested.

How Will Changing Global Conditions Impact Latin America's Largest Economies?

<p>Larger in land mass than the contiguous United States, Brazil borders every country on the South American continent except Ecuador and Chile. Three features define Brazil&#39;s geography: the Amazon Basin, tropical savanna and the Brazilian Highlands. The Amazon River and rain forest, the world&#39;s largest, encompass most of northern Brazil and make this region inhospitable to agriculture and large populations. To its south lies the Cerrado, a vast tropical savanna. Advances in agricultural practices have allowed large-scale farming to thrive in this region. However, due to distance and geography, Brazil faces daunting challenges in getting agricultural commodities to international markets. The Brazilian Highlands and the narrow strip of land between the mountains and the coast are home to the majority of the country&#39;s 197 million people. Most of the country&#39;s economic activity occurs in this region. Brazil&#39;s geography largely shields it from external military threats. The Atlantic Ocean, the Amazon Basin and the buffer states of Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay insulate the country. Brazil&#39;s varied regions have made centralized control and integration difficult for the core states of Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais. Infrastructure linking the coast and the interior, as well as connecting the various coastal cities is technically difficult and requires high levels of investment. Isolated from the rest of the continent both geographically and linguistically and lacking internal cohesion, Brazil has traditionally been inward looking. Brazil&#39;s primary geographic challenging is consolidating control over its vast peripheral territory and connecting these regions more efficiently with its population centers and ports.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Brazil: Election Results Confirm Trend of Establishment Parties Winning Most City Halls

France, EU, South America: Paris Reiterates Opposition to EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement

Brazil: Worst Drought on Record To Increase Electricity Prices

Global: OPEC+ Weighs Delaying Production Increase

Brazil: Judicial Overreach To Fuel Legal Uncertainty but Unlikely To Spark Private Sector 'Witch Hunt'

Venezuela: Election Negotiations Unlikely To Progress, Opposition Calls Demonstrations Worldwide

Brazil, China: Economic Ties Poised To Draw Tighter as Lula Hints at Joining BRI

Brazil: Multiple Exemptions to Tax Reform Regulation To Increase VAT Level

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