Brazil

Politics

Brazil's attorney general charged former President Jair Bolsonaro and 33 allies, including high-ranking military officials, with forming an armed criminal organization that plotted a coup following the 2022 presidential election, g1 reported on Feb. 18.

Brazil: Bolsonaro Likely To Face Arrest Over Coming Year, but Far Right Will Remain Strong

Economics

Brazilian legislators elected federal deputy Hugo Motta for the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies and Sen. Davi Alcolumbre to be the president of the Senate, with both winning a large majority with consensus from both President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's left-wing supporters and the right-wing opposition, g1 reported Feb. 2.

Brazil: New Congress Leaders To Fight for Increased Budget Control but Unlikely To Fuel Political Instability

Colombia

Venezuela

Military & Security

Venezuela closed its border with Brazil and mobilized 150,000 soldiers for military exercises, El Pais reported on Jan. 23.

Venezuela: Border Tensions Unlikely To Escalate to Full-Blown Crises

The Brazilian real continued to weaken versus the U.S. dollar despite extraordinary Central Bank measures and Congress's approval of spending cut bills amid investor concerns over the government's fiscal policy, g1 reported Dec. 18.

Brazil: Financial Turmoil to Persist Term as Government Unlikely to Make Fiscal Policy U-Turn

Brazil's Federal Police arrested former Defense Minister and Chief of Staff  Gen. Walter Braga Netto, who was also former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro's running mate in the most recent presidential election, for interfering with investigations into an alleged 2022 Bolsonaro-led coup attempt, g1 reported on Dec. 14. 

Brazil: Arrest of Army General Allied With Bolsonaro To Pose Limited Political Instability Risks

Argentina

Bolivia

Paraguay

Uruguay

The European Union and Mercosur (a bloc formed by Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached an agreement on the terms of a free trade deal, Reuters reported Dec. 6.

EU, Mercosur: Despite Pushback in Europe, EU-Mercosur Deal Likely to Be Ratified

ing former ministers, advisors and military officials, over their alleged involvement in a coup attempt after Bolsonaro lost the 2022 presidential election, g1 reported Nov. 21.

Brazil: Bolsonaro Indicted Over Alleged Involvement in Coup Attempt

China

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and China's President Xi Jinping signed 37 bilateral cooperation agreements in areas ranging from trade and investments, finance, technology and mining to communications, sustainable development, tourism, sports, health and culture, Reuters reported on Nov. 20.

Brazil: Lula Skips BRI Membership but Announces 37 Cooperation Agreements With China

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The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Social Issues

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Low savings and investment, along with an increasingly uncertain fiscal outlook and increasing debt, make it unlikely that Brazil will succeed in maintaining its current growth momentum.

Brazil’s Economic Growth Is Set To Face Headwinds

Changes in rainfall patterns and extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change will increasingly challenge Brazil's crop production, causing unrest.

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The Geopolitics of Water: The Impact of Climate Change on Brazil's Agribusiness

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

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The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Germany

France

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Senegal

Austria

A G-20 summit banner on Nov. 12 at City Hall in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host G-20 leaders Nov. 18-19 in Rio de Janeiro, where he will try to secure support for three main proposals.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Brazil Hosts the G-20, Constitutional Crisis Looms in Israel

Chile

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

U.S. border patrol officials drive near the wall along the Mexican border in Sasabe, Arizona, on Dec. 8, 2023. 

The fallout from Trump's pledged tariffs and mass deportations could worsen living conditions in countries like Mexico, though countries with like-minded leaders, like Argentina, may fare better.

What Trump's Focus on Immigration, Trade and Ideology Means for Latin America

South Africa

Egypt

Moldova

Vehicles pass by a banner thanking outgoing Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and congratulating President-elect Prabowo Subianto and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka ahead of their Oct. 20 inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 17, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Case in Kenya, an Inauguration in Indonesia

Mozambique

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a rally supporting Sao Paulo mayoral candidate Guilherme Boulos (L) on Aug. 24 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While Brazil's upcoming municipal elections will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, they will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

While the vote will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, it will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

Brazil's Municipal Elections Will Leave the Status Quo Intact

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

<p>Larger in land mass than the contiguous United States, Brazil borders every country on the South American continent except Ecuador and Chile. Three features define Brazil&#39;s geography: the Amazon Basin, tropical savanna and the Brazilian Highlands. The Amazon River and rain forest, the world&#39;s largest, encompass most of northern Brazil and make this region inhospitable to agriculture and large populations. To its south lies the Cerrado, a vast tropical savanna. Advances in agricultural practices have allowed large-scale farming to thrive in this region. However, due to distance and geography, Brazil faces daunting challenges in getting agricultural commodities to international markets. The Brazilian Highlands and the narrow strip of land between the mountains and the coast are home to the majority of the country&#39;s 197 million people. Most of the country&#39;s economic activity occurs in this region. Brazil&#39;s geography largely shields it from external military threats. The Atlantic Ocean, the Amazon Basin and the buffer states of Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay insulate the country. Brazil&#39;s varied regions have made centralized control and integration difficult for the core states of Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais. Infrastructure linking the coast and the interior, as well as connecting the various coastal cities is technically difficult and requires high levels of investment. Isolated from the rest of the continent both geographically and linguistically and lacking internal cohesion, Brazil has traditionally been inward looking. Brazil&#39;s primary geographic challenging is consolidating control over its vast peripheral territory and connecting these regions more efficiently with its population centers and ports.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Brazil: Bolsonaro Likely To Face Arrest Over Coming Year, but Far Right Will Remain Strong

Brazil: New Congress Leaders To Fight for Increased Budget Control but Unlikely To Fuel Political Instability

Venezuela: Border Tensions Unlikely To Escalate to Full-Blown Crises

Brazil: Financial Turmoil to Persist Term as Government Unlikely to Make Fiscal Policy U-Turn

Brazil: Arrest of Army General Allied With Bolsonaro To Pose Limited Political Instability Risks

EU, Mercosur: Despite Pushback in Europe, EU-Mercosur Deal Likely to Be Ratified

Brazil: Bolsonaro Indicted Over Alleged Involvement in Coup Attempt

Brazil: Lula Skips BRI Membership but Announces 37 Cooperation Agreements With China

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