Brazil

United States

Economics

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The U.S. Treasury Department lifted sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act on Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and his wife, Viviane Barci de Moraes, g1 reported on Dec. 12. 

U.S., Brazil: U.S. Lifts Magnitsky Sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice 

Military & Security

Brazil's Chamber of Deputies approved a bill that reduces prison sentences for those convicted of anti-democratic acts, including former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year term for attempting to plot a coup during the 2022 election, g1 reported Dec. 10.

Brazil: Chamber of Deputies Approves Bill That Would Reduce Bolsonaro's Prison Sentence

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's eldest son, Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, announced on Dec. 5 that he would run for president in 2026, but two days later, he said he would be willing to back down from his presidential bid in exchange for his father's freedom, Folha de S.Paulo reported on Dec. 7.


Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro's Presidential Bid Unlikely To Prosper, but Shows Divided Right

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called U.S. President Donald Trump on Dec. 2 to discuss cooperation on fighting organized crime and removing U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods and sanctions on local authorities, g1 reported on the same day.

U.S., Brazil: Presidents' Phone Call Underscores Momentum Toward Positive Bilateral Relations

Brazil's Federal Police took former President Jair Bolsonaro into custody on Nov. 22 because he poses a flight risk after he tampered with his ankle monitor, G1 reported the same day. 


Brazil: Limited Unrest Could Follow Bolsonaro Arrest 

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order to remove 40% tariffs on some Brazilian food products, including beef, coffee, cocoa and fruits, with the order retroactively affecting Brazilian imports to the United States starting Nov. 13, the White House said in a statement issued Nov. 20. 

Brazil, U.S.: White House Announces Removal of Some 40% Tariffs on Brazil

Brazil's Congress approved a bill that limits corporate tax credits and implements stricter rules for social benefits, aiming to save $15 billion reais ($2.8 billion) by 2026, Folha de S.Paulo reported on Nov. 18.

Brazil: Congress Approves Spending Cuts and Tax Credit Caps, but Fiscal Concerns Persist

Brazilian senators installed a parliamentary inquiry commission into organized crime on Nov. 4, g1 reported the same day. 

Brazil: Parliamentary Commission on Organized Crime To Boost Momentum for Stricter Security Policies

Assessments

Iraq

Syria

China

Campaign posters Nov. 6 ahead of Nov. 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections in central Baghdad.

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iraqi Elections, a U.S.-China Deal Enters Effect

The COP30 logo at the central building is seen ahead of the COP30 Brazil Amazonia 2025 on Nov. 3, 2025 in Belem, Brazil. 

Energy

Social Issues

The 30th U.N. Climate Change Conference is poised to highlight the enduring impasse between developed and developing nations, particularly regarding financial responsibilities and the transition from fossil fuels.

A Breakthrough on Climate Targets is Unlikely at Brazil's COP30

A digital illustration of the Brazilian flag with economic and financial indicators. 

The current administration's focus on boosting growth through public expenditure is delaying necessary fiscal consolidation, setting the stage for more difficult and potentially drastic economic adjustments after elections in 2026.

Brazil Faces an Inevitable Fiscal Reckoning

Columns

On Geopolitics

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Ethiopia

Israel

Japan

France

United Kingdom

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou leaves after the weekly cabinet meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Aug. 27, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: France's Bayrou Faces a Confidence Vote, Ethiopia Inaugurates Its Mega-Dam

Argentina

Bolivia

Canada

Paraguay

Uruguay

Venezuela

Lebanon

United Arab Emirates

Indonesia

Singapore

South Korea

Vietnam

Europe

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

Mercosur is increasingly opening its markets in pursuit of free trade agreements with partners around the world, particularly as U.S. protectionism shifts global trade dynamics.

The Geopolitics of Trade: What Changing Trade Dynamics Mean for Mercosur

Media

Podcasts

How will these recent developments influence the 2026 general election?

Essential Geopolitics: Brazil's Evolving Political Climate Amid Bolsonaro's House Arrest and Trump's Tariffs

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a press conference at the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 7, 2025. 

While most of Brazil's main exports are exempt, the additional U.S. tariffs -- along with Brazil's impending economic retaliation and the likely arrest of former President Bolsonaro -- will further strain bilateral ties.

The Implications of Trump's New Tariffs on Brazil

Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Netanyahu's U.S. Visit, a Franco-British Summit

Snapshots

A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.

The South American trade bloc's July 2-3 summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and finalizing free trade deals with countries seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs.

The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals

Belize

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

Cuba

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

El Salvador

Guatemala

Guyana

Haiti

Honduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

Panama

Peru

Suriname

(L-R) Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina attend a plenary session of the China-CELAC ministerial meeting at the Great Hall of the People on May 13, 2025, in Beijing, China. 

Latin America and the Caribbean will welcome China's increased engagement, but strong ties to the West and China's economic slowdown will limit Beijing's influence in the region.

Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited

General view of the plenary session of Brazil's lower house in Brasilia during an April 2, 2025, vote on the reciprocity law, which allows the Brazilian government to retaliate against countries or economic blocs that impose trade barriers on products from Brazil. 

Although U.S. tariffs will hinder Brazil's economy and reduce foreign direct investment, unique opportunities for Brazilian exporters may mitigate the impact of the looming global trade war.

U.S. Protectionism Portends Opportunities and Hurdles for Brazil

<p>Larger in land mass than the contiguous United States, Brazil borders every country on the South American continent except Ecuador and Chile. Three features define Brazil&#39;s geography: the Amazon Basin, tropical savanna and the Brazilian Highlands. The Amazon River and rain forest, the world&#39;s largest, encompass most of northern Brazil and make this region inhospitable to agriculture and large populations. To its south lies the Cerrado, a vast tropical savanna. Advances in agricultural practices have allowed large-scale farming to thrive in this region. However, due to distance and geography, Brazil faces daunting challenges in getting agricultural commodities to international markets. The Brazilian Highlands and the narrow strip of land between the mountains and the coast are home to the majority of the country&#39;s 197 million people. Most of the country&#39;s economic activity occurs in this region. Brazil&#39;s geography largely shields it from external military threats. The Atlantic Ocean, the Amazon Basin and the buffer states of Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay insulate the country. Brazil&#39;s varied regions have made centralized control and integration difficult for the core states of Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais. Infrastructure linking the coast and the interior, as well as connecting the various coastal cities is technically difficult and requires high levels of investment. Isolated from the rest of the continent both geographically and linguistically and lacking internal cohesion, Brazil has traditionally been inward looking. Brazil&#39;s primary geographic challenging is consolidating control over its vast peripheral territory and connecting these regions more efficiently with its population centers and ports.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Brazil: U.S. Lifts Magnitsky Sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice

Brazil: Chamber of Deputies Approves Bill That Would Reduce Bolsonaro's Prison Sentence

Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro's Presidential Bid Unlikely To Prosper, but Shows Divided Right

U.S., Brazil: Presidents' Phone Call Underscores Momentum Toward Positive Bilateral Relations

Brazil: Limited Unrest Could Follow Bolsonaro Arrest

Brazil, U.S.: White House Announces Removal of Some 40% Tariffs on Brazil

Brazil: Congress Approves Spending Cuts and Tax Credit Caps, but Fiscal Concerns Persist

Brazil: Parliamentary Commission on Organized Crime To Boost Momentum for Stricter Security Policies

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