China

Philippines

Vietnam

Military & Security

Politics

Vietnam lodged formal diplomatic protests on May 4 against China and the Philippines over their recent actions at Sandy Cay in the South China Sea, demanding they respect Hanoi’s sovereignty over the Spratly archipelago, the South China Morning Post reported on May 6.

Vietnam: Hanoi Joins Sandy Cay Fray as Feature Risks Becoming New South China Sea Hot Spot

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai plans to give a speech (likely on May 8) commemorating the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day, in which he is expected to laud the cooperation of democracies in the face of authoritarian aggressors and may reference China as a modern-day parallel threat, Reuters reported on May 1.

Taiwan: Lai Speech on VE Day Raises Specter of Another Chinese Drill

Philippine Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, Manila's chief military spokesperson on South China Sea issues, confirmed that the Philippine and Taiwanese navies are engaged in "unofficial and informal" engagements, and he mentioned the possibility of joint patrols in the Luzon Strait as part of broader multilateral engagement, state media TaiwanPlus News reported on April 29.

Taiwan, Philippines: Naval Connections Deepen After Manila Loosens Rules on Communications

United States

China and the Philippines both planted flags on Sandy Cay, a group of sandbars in the disputed Spratly Islands of the South China Sea, amid conflicting claims of control, The Washington Post reported on April 28. 

China, Philippines: Countries Exchange Flag-Planting Episodes on Disputed South China Sea Feature

Kenya

Economics

Kenyan President William Ruto and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to upgrade bilateral ties to a “new level” and strengthen cooperation in a range of sectors, including infrastructure, healthcare, science and technology, and security following a bilateral meeting, Reuters reported on April 24. 

Kenya, China: Nairobi and Beijing Upgrade Ties Following Ruto-Xi Meeting

South Korea

South Korea's first-quarter gross domestic product dropped 0.1% year on year, while consumption fell 0.1%, exports dropped 1.1%, and construction and facility investment fell 3.2% and 2.1%, respectively, according to the Bank of Korea on April 24. 

South Korea: First Quarter GDP Contracts, Second Quarter Off to a Poor Start

Belgium

China is preparing to lift sanctions on European Parliament lawmakers in an effort to revive its stalled Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) with the European Union, the Financial Times reported April 23, citing a spokesperson for European Parliament President Roberta Metsola.

EU, China: Beijing Ready to Lift Sanctions on European Lawmakers to Revive EU Investment Agreement 

The Philippines significantly eased restrictions on engagement with Taiwan by allowing Philippine officials to host Taiwanese officials and by allowing Taiwanese delegations to visit the island, though Manila maintained prior prohibitions on top national security leaders like the president and defense minister, Nikkei Asia reported on April 22.

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Significantly Relaxes Restrictions on Engagement With Taipei

Assessments

Europe

A digital illustration of the Chinese and EU flags.

Global Trade

U.S.-China Relations

Transatlantic trade tensions have created a window for tactical EU-China engagement, but structural constraints and unresolved disputes limit prospects for meaningful realignment.

Budding EU-China Rapprochement Amid U.S. Tariffs Will Have Its Limits

Mexico

Trucks travel by the U.S.-Mexico border after crossing the border into the United States at Otay Mesa, California, on April 2, 2025. 

Although U.S. tariffs will hurt Mexico's economy in the short term, they may eventually grant Mexico a competitive advantage over countries that face even higher duties.

The Buffers That Will Help Mexico Navigate Tariff Turbulence

Japan

The Geopolitics of Trade

U.S. reciprocal tariffs will have major economic and political impacts on Japan and South Korea, particularly as both East Asian countries prepare for summer elections.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Impact of U.S. Tariffs on South Korea and Japan

Ecuador

Iran

Cambodia

Malaysia

Italy

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the closing session of the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing, China, on March 11, 2025. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Xi Tours Southeast Asia, Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks Begin

Taiwan's President Lai inspects troops taking part in the Rapid Response Exercise at the Songshan military airbase in Taipei on March 21, 2025.

Lai's policies to defend sovereignty and curb Chinese influence are prompting greater coercive pressure from Beijing.

In Taiwan, President Lai's Actions Toward China Will Speak Louder Than His Words

Vietnamese garment workers stitch apparel at a factory in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, on April 3, 2025, after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs on trading partners.

If the 46% U.S. tariff on Vietnamese goods remains in place, it will quickly destabilize the country's export-reliant economy, creating substantial risks that could compel Hanoi to deepen its reliance on China.

Trump's Tariffs Pose a Structural Threat to Vietnam's Economy

South Africa

Israel

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Ukraine

A list of countries facing reciprocal tariffs on display April 2 at the White House.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: The Escalating Global Trade War, South Africa's Coalition Government on the Brink

Snapshots

Cranes unload shipping containers from a ship at a port in Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 2, 2025. 

The timing and scope of Beijing's retaliatory measures signal a significant escalation of its trade war with Washington, which may nonetheless increase the long-term chance of a trade deal.

China Abandons Restraint With Latest Trade Salvo Against the U.S.

Media

Canada

Australia

Russia

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Second-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on reciprocal tariffs as U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick holds a chart during an event in the Rose Garden entitled ''Make America Wealthy Again'' at the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 2, 2025. 

Trump's sweeping new tariffs will slow both U.S. and global economic growth, with lower-income Americans and emerging markets like Vietnam being hit hardest.

The U.S. Launches the Largest Trade War in Modern History

Columns

On Geopolitics

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

Turkey

People wave flags and chant slogans during a protest in front of the municipality headquarters in support of arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on March 19, 2025, in Istanbul, Turkey. 

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. To Announce Tariffs, Protests in Turkey Rage On

<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Vietnam: Hanoi Joins Sandy Cay Fray as Feature Risks Becoming New South China Sea Hot Spot

Taiwan: Lai Speech on VE Day Raises Specter of Another Chinese Drill

Taiwan, Philippines: Naval Connections Deepen After Manila Loosens Rules on Communications

China, Philippines: Countries Exchange Flag-Planting Episodes on Disputed South China Sea Feature

Kenya, China: Nairobi and Beijing Upgrade Ties Following Ruto-Xi Meeting

South Korea: First Quarter GDP Contracts, Second Quarter Off to a Poor Start

EU, China: Beijing Ready to Lift Sanctions on European Lawmakers to Revive EU Investment Agreement

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Significantly Relaxes Restrictions on Engagement With Taipei

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