China

Japan

Taiwan

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said Japan will deploy its domestically produced Type-03 Chu-SAM medium-range surface-to-air defense missile system to the island of Yonaguni in March 2031, Channel News Asia reported on Feb. 24. 

Japan, Taiwan: Tokyo Sets 2031 Timeline for Missile Deployment on Yonaguni 

United States

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

U.S.-based artificial intelligence company Anthropic said three Chinese AI companies set up more than 24,000 fraudulent accounts with its Claude AI model to conduct "distillation" techniques that use data outputs to advance their own AI systems, The Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 23. 

U.S., China: Anthropic Claims Chinese Companies Are Using Claude for Distillation

China's Ministry of Commerce placed 20 Japanese entities on a full export control list and 20 others on a new watchlist, thereby restricting or conditioning exports of dual use goods, Nikkei Asia reported on Feb. 24.

China, Japan: Beijing Slaps More Export Controls on Tokyo

Germany

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will travel to China on Feb. 24 for his first official visit since taking office in May 2025, accompanied by a large business delegation, Reuters reported the same day.

Germany, China: Chancellor Friederich Merz Travels to Beijing

Chile

U.S. Ambassador to Chile Brandon Judd said on Feb. 23 that the U.S. government had warned Chile against pursuing a Chinese project for submarine cables before sanctioning three high-ranking Chilean officials over the project on Feb. 20, El Pais reported on Feb. 23.

U.S., Chile, China: U.S. Sanctions Chilean Officials Over Chinese Submarine Cable Project

Iran

U.S.-China Relations

China and Iran are close to reaching a deal for Iran to purchase Chinese-made CM-302 anti-ship cruise missiles, Reuters reported on Feb. 24.

China, Iran: Governments Negotiating Deal on Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles

North Korea

South Korea

Russia

North Korea's Workers' Party reelected Kim Jong Un as general secretary at its ongoing ninth Party congress, which has so far focused on strengthening North Korea's "war deterrence" centered on nuclear weapons capacity, Yonhap News Agency reported on Feb. 23. 

North Korea: Kim Reaffirmed as Party Chief, Nuclear Policy Entrenched

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gave a speech outlining her policies on Feb. 20 to open a special session of the Diet that will last through July 17, according to a readout from the prime minister's office.

Japan: Takaichi Outlines Policy Plans for 2026

Assessments

A video interview of Taiwanese President William Lai plays onstage during The New York Times DealBook Summit 2025 at Jazz at Lincoln Center on Dec. 3, 2025, in New York City.

President Lai's political disputes with the legislature are unlikely to ease anytime soon, which could disrupt U.S. trade and arms deals and/or jeopardize future opportunities for diplomatic engagement with China.

Taiwan's Political Dysfunction Goes Global

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press Feb. 2 in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver the annual State of the Union address to Congress on Feb. 24.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Threatens Iran, Pledges To Reimpose Tariffs on Different Grounds

Snapshots

Canada

Mexico

Vietnam

Europe

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House on Feb. 20, 2026, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump's use of emergency powers to implement international trade tariffs.

Global Trade

The Trump administration will use other trade authorities to replace many of the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, meaning U.S. trading partners will remain incentivized to engage on trade matters.

What the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Means for Trump and U.S. Trading Partners

Russian soldiers wear chemical protection suits as they stand next to a military fueler on the base of a prime mover of Russian Topol intercontinental ballistic missile during a training session at the Serpukhov's military missile forces research institute some 100km outside Moscow on April 6, 2010.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Over time, this will intensify an ongoing buildup of nuclear capabilities across the globe and make crises involving nuclear powers more unpredictable and prone to miscalculations. 


Implications of the Last Major U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreement's Expiration

Zhang Youxia, senior vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), attends the opening of the fourth plenary session of the National People's Congress on March 11, 2023, in Beijing, China. 

The removal of Xi's closest military ally signals an acceleration of his push to eliminate internal threats and heightens uncertainty about the president's decision-making on Taiwan, potentially raising the risk of future conflict.

China's High-Level Military Purge Raises Risk of a Miscalculation on Taiwan

Israel

Palestinian Territories

United Kingdom

India

Egyptian trucks and heavy machinery on Oct. 26, 2025, on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Border Reopening, EU Leaders Visit India

Columns

On Geopolitics

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Venezuela

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Greenland

Norway

Ukraine

Pakistan

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Benin

Uganda

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark. Ukraine security talks and a Gaza peace plan will be in the spotlight at Davos.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Media

Forecast Webcast

Energy

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Japan, Taiwan: Tokyo Sets 2031 Timeline for Missile Deployment on Yonaguni

U.S., China: Anthropic Claims Chinese Companies Are Using Claude for Distillation

China, Japan: Beijing Slaps More Export Controls on Tokyo

Germany, China: Chancellor Friederich Merz Travels to Beijing

U.S., Chile, China: U.S. Sanctions Chilean Officials Over Chinese Submarine Cable Project

China, Iran: Governments Negotiating Deal on Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles

North Korea: Kim Reaffirmed as Party Chief, Nuclear Policy Entrenched

Japan: Takaichi Outlines Policy Plans for 2026

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