China

India

Pakistan

Military & Security

Politics

Pakistan's Punjab state banned public gatherings, sit-ins, rallies, demonstrations and similar activities in Rawalpindi district, which is adjacent to the federal capital, Islamabad, for eight days, and the federal government deployed 10,000 police and paramilitary personnel to the capital, Geo News reported on Oct. 11.

Pakistan: Islamabad Prepares To Host Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit

Australia

Economics

China will lift trade restrictions on Australian lobster by the end of 2024, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said while meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Laos, Reuters reported on Oct. 10. 

China, Australia: Beijing Promises To Lift Final Trade Restrictions on Canberra by Year's End

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai gave a speech on the country's National Day in which he asserted Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, claiming "[Beijing] has no right to represent Taiwan," The Washington Post reported on Oct. 10.

Taiwan, China: Lai's National Day Speech Appeals for Western Support, Irks China

Mexico

United States

The newly inaugurated administration of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will seek to strengthen the domestic manufacturing sector by asking U.S. vehicle and semiconductor producers and companies in the electronics and aerospace sectors to replace components made in China and Southeast Asia with parts from Mexico, The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 8.

Mexico: Government Hints at Import Substitution To Boost Investment Amid Supply Chain Derisking Efforts

Zheng Shanjie, the director of the National Development and Reform Commission (China's top economic planner) held a press conference on Oct. 8 in which he outlined "incremental policies" to support near-term development, reaffirming Beijing's commitment to prioritizing "medium and long-term development," rather than outlining significant new fiscal stimulus. 

China: NDRC Suggests Large-Scale Fiscal Stimulus Is Not Forthcoming

Taiwanese President William Lai gave a speech on Oct. 5 in which he asserted that China is not the motherland of Taiwan but vice versa, adding, "We [Taiwan] are a sovereign and independent country," the Taipei Times reported the next day.

China, Taiwan: Lai's Speeches May Spur New Chinese Military Drills

Philippines

South Korea

South Korea and the Philippines upgraded ties to a strategic partnership, with Seoul pledging $1.9 billion in low-interest loans for infrastructure projects in the Philippines, including a ring road in the capital and an eight-mile (13-kilometer) bridge in the central region, the South China Morning Post reported on Oct. 7.

South Korea, Philippines: Seoul Pledges Infrastructure Aid as Countries Upgrade Ties

Colombia

Colombia's Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Jorge Rojas announced the country will join China's Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, once both parties discuss relevant details, El Pais reported on Oct. 4.

Colombia: Chinese Investments To Increase as Bogota Announces Plan To Join BRI

Assessments

Iran

Israel

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting, Chinese Financial Support Measures

Snapshots

The headquarters of China's central bank is seen on May 4, 2021.

The new measures reflect growing concerns about China's economic outlook, but their scale falls short of what is needed to maintain 5% growth and stop deflation.

Faced With Slowed Growth and Deflation Risks, China Unveils a New Stimulus Package

Taiwanese President William Lai gives his inauguration speech on May 20, 2024, in Taipei, Taiwan.

The president's recent remarks indicate he will continue to remove rhetorical ambiguity about Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, portending more Chinese military drills and deeper Western engagement with Taiwan.

For Taiwan, Lai's Pro-Sovereignty Rhetoric May Invite Western Support -- and Chinese Drills

Mozambique

Rwanda

Europe

Russia

Frelimo electoral posters are plastered on a wall in Maputo, Mozambique, on Aug. 24, 2024, the first day of the presidential campaign season ahead of the general election on Oct. 9, 2024.

Energy

Global Elections

Mozambique's upcoming general election will likely bring another five years of Frelimo rule, though an independent candidate is drawing LNG contracts to the forefront of the campaign season.

Mozambique's General Election Brings LNG Contracts Centerstage

Maldives

An aerial view of the island of Male, which is the capital of the Maldives.

If it defaults on its Islamic bonds, the island nation will be forced to seek more financial aid from India and China, which would heighten macroeconomic instability and erode investor confidence.

Trouble in Paradise: The Maldives' Looming Debt Default

Media

Brazil

France

Ukraine

Forecast Webcast

Environment, Science & Technology

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Science & Technology

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Chinese President Xi Jinping (third from left) and Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (third from right) hold a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on June 7, 2024. 

Despite China's declining investment volumes in Brazil, strengthening cooperation remains of interest to both countries, which will likely see Brasilia join the BRI -- potentially as soon as November.

The Implications of Brazil Joining China's Belt and Road Initiative

Kenya

Palestinian Territories

A special session of the U.N. General Assembly is held on the Palestinian bid for full membership to the United Nations at the U.N. headquarters in New York City on May 10, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Mexico Ratifies a Controversial Judicial Reform, the U.N. Votes on a Palestinian Resolution

Sub-Saharan Africa

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and leaders from African nations assemble for a group photo at the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, on Sept. 5, 2024.

In a recent speech, Chinese President Xi laid out a $51 billion funding pledge for Africa, but fiscal and security constraints make a return to the heavy Chinese engagement of the mid-2010s highly unlikely.

China Commits to Long-Term Africa Ties, Even if Belt and Road Remains Muted

Netherlands

U.S.-China Relations

The United States and the West are likely to continue tightening export controls on China's semiconductor and other high-tech industries to close loopholes exploited by Chinese companies.

Tightened Western Tech Export Controls on China Signal More to Come

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

The flags of ASEAN members are displayed at a naval base during the ASEAN Solidarity Exercise in Batam, Natuna regency, Riau Islands province, Indonesia, on Sept. 20, 2023. 

ASEAN's economic and geopolitical diversity will impede significant progress toward deeper integration, despite members' intention to collaborate more closely.

Economic and Geopolitical Diversity Hinders ASEAN's Path to Deeper Integration

Mongolia

Germany

Supporters attend a campaign event for the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in Erfurt, eastern Germany, on Aug. 29, 2024, ahead of upcoming regional elections.

The Weekly Rundown: An Africa-China Summit, State Elections in Eastern Germany

<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: Islamabad Prepares To Host Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit

China, Australia: Beijing Promises To Lift Final Trade Restrictions on Canberra by Year's End

Taiwan, China: Lai's National Day Speech Appeals for Western Support, Irks China

Mexico: Government Hints at Import Substitution To Boost Investment Amid Supply Chain Derisking Efforts

China: NDRC Suggests Large-Scale Fiscal Stimulus Is Not Forthcoming

China, Taiwan: Lai's Speeches May Spur New Chinese Military Drills

South Korea, Philippines: Seoul Pledges Infrastructure Aid as Countries Upgrade Ties

Colombia: Chinese Investments To Increase as Bogota Announces Plan To Join BRI

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