China

Taiwan

Politics

Taiwanese President William Lai gave a speech on the country's National Day in which he asserted Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, claiming "[Beijing] has no right to represent Taiwan," The Washington Post reported on Oct. 10.

Taiwan, China: Lai's National Day Speech Appeals for Western Support, Irks China

Military & Security

Taiwanese President William Lai gave a speech on Oct. 5 in which he asserted that China is not the motherland of Taiwan but vice versa, adding, "We [Taiwan] are a sovereign and independent country," the Taipei Times reported the next day.

China, Taiwan: Lai's Speeches May Spur New Chinese Military Drills

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

One of China's newest models of nuclear-powered Zhou-class submarines appears to have sunk at a shipyard in Wuhan sometime in late May or early June, according to satellite imagery and reporting by The Wall Street Journal on Sept. 26.

China: Another Apparent Nuclear-Powered Sub Incident Highlights Taiwan Difficulties

United States

United Arab Emirates

South Korea

Economics

The United Arab Emirates is courting South Korea's Samsung and the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, to build advanced semiconductor fabrication plants in the Gulf nation, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 23.

UAE: Abu Dhabi in Talks With Samsung, TSMC on Building Semiconductor Fabrication Plants

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai pledged to speed up the review process by examining two recent incidents of boats with Chinese nationals sailing to Taiwan's shore without the military's notice, Taipei Times reported on Sept. 17. 

Taiwan, China: Second Coastal Breach Highlights Security Issues

On Aug. 31, leaders of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) re-released a joint communique that removed references to Taiwan, which comes after the original draft published on Aug. 30 reaffirmed Taiwan's "developer partner" status in the PIF and drew strong complaints from Qian Bo, China's envoy to the grouping, RNZ reported Sept. 3. 

 China, Pacific Islands: PIF Removes Taiwan Reference After China Complaint

Ko Wen-je, the head of the third party Taiwan People's Party, or TPP, announced that he was taking a three-month leave of absence from his leadership of the party, adding that he would "voluntarily apply for an investigation" into recent corruption allegations, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 29.

Taiwan: Third Party TPP Stumbles, Hurting the Pro-China Conservative KMT

Ko Wen-je, the chair of the third party Taiwan People's Party, or TPP, stated on Aug. 26 that he used $1.35 million in campaign funds to buy an office for the party in May,  the Taipei Times reported on Aug. 27.

Taiwan: Third Party TPP Stumbles, Raising Chances for Legislative Swing Bloc

Assessments

Taiwanese President William Lai gives his inauguration speech on May 20, 2024, in Taipei, Taiwan.

The president's recent remarks indicate he will continue to remove rhetorical ambiguity about Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, portending more Chinese military drills and deeper Western engagement with Taiwan.

For Taiwan, Lai's Pro-Sovereignty Rhetoric May Invite Western Support -- and Chinese Drills

Media

Podcasts

How is China reacting to President William Lai's inauguration?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Short-term China-Taiwan Relations

Japan

North Korea

Russia

Global Elections

While President Biden would be expected to continue to build and strengthen alliances with America's key allies in the northern Asian region, the reelection of President Trump could spur those same allies to look beyond the U.S. for their physical and economic security.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, Northern Asia and Geopolitical Risk: What to Expect

Snapshots

An outdoor screen shows news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing, China, on May 23, 2024. 

The drills suggest China will escalate its military coercion during Taiwanese President Lai's four-year term, and could be followed by more extensive drills later this year if the U.S. steps up its support for Taipei.

China's Latest Military Drills Around Taiwan Set the Tone for Cross-Strait Relations Under Lai

Kenya

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Europe

Spain

Ireland

Taiwanese President-elect William Lai (C) on Jan. 13 in Taipei, Taiwan. Lai will officially begin his four-year presidency May 20.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Kenya's President Visits Washington, Lai Inaugurated in Taiwan

What do China's recent Taiwan Strait initiatives mean for Taiwan's security?

Essential Geopolitics: China's New Initiatives in the Taiwan Strait

Kinmen Island, the main island of Taiwan's Kinmen archipelago, is seen in the distance from a beach in the southeastern Chinese city of Xiamen on Jan. 12, 2024.

Beijing is seizing on the death of two Chinese fishermen to exercise greater control around Taiwan's Kinmen islands, raising the risk of more dangerous encounters in the area.

A Deadly Incident at Sea Heightens China-Taiwan Tensions

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Senegal

Egypt

Germany

Displaced Palestinians camp near the fence separating the Gaza Strip from Egypt on Feb. 16, 2024, in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Egypt will continue to prepare a contingency plan in case Palestinians cross the Egypt-Gaza border amid growing signs that the Rafah offensive could start as early as this week.

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Egypt Plans for a Palestinian Influx, African Union Heads of State Meet

A supporter of the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) waves Taiwan's national flag during a campaign rally at the Sanhe Market in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, on Jan. 10, 2024.

Energy

Taiwan's latest elections yielded a divided parliament that will impede military readiness and economic reform, while the country's growing diplomatic isolation will keep it reliant on outside powers for security and development.

Taiwan's Hung Legislature Portends More Policy Gridlock and External Dependencies

Taiwanese President-Elect, William Lai (left), celebrates alongside his running mate (right) during a rally at the headquarters of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taipei, Taiwan, on Jan. 13, 2024, after winning the presidential election.

The ruling party's continued control of Taiwan's presidency will see Beijing steadily escalate its economic and military coercion against Taipei, presenting a low risk of blockades or an invasion of Taiwan's outlying islands. 

Taiwan's Election Yields Four More Years of DPP Rule -- and China Tensions

Guatemala

Yemen

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Houthis during the capture of an Israel-linked cargo vessel in November 2023 at an unnamed location in the Red Sea.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: The Possible Houthi Reply to U.S.-U.K. Strikes, Taiwan's General Elections

Columns

On Geopolitics

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Taiwan is located along a sea lane in the West Pacific, with the East China Sea to the north, the Philippine Sea to the east and the South China Sea to the south. The island is 180 kilometers off the southeastern coast of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait. The strait has allowed for communication with the mainland since ancient times, but has also forced the island to confront the mainland's unrelenting attempts to reclaim it.    Taiwan consists of two geographic and population cores. The first is the Chianan Plain in the southwestern region, home to Taiwan's earliest civilizations and the island's second-largest city, Kaohsiung. The second is Taipei Basin, home to the island's capital, Taipei. These two cores are separated by rugged mountains and over several centuries have developed their own distinct social patterns and economic structures. The presence of mainlanders, who have been crossing the strait since the 17th century, further compounds the island's socio-political divides.    Taiwan's crucial strategic position has put it at the center of regional geopolitical competition for centuries. In the 17th century it was controlled by various European colonial powers, and up until World War II, it switched hands between the Chinese empire and Japanese rulers. Taiwan was the extended battleground of the Chinese Civil War in the mid-1940s and only established itself as an independent, unified polity in 1945. Today, it remains a focal point of power struggles between China, Japan and the United States. The island's primary geographic challenge is to avoid being dominated by external powers while securing a maritime buffer. Both these goals are challenged by China, which is expanding its maritime ambitions in the East and South China seas and remains fixated on eventual national reunification.

SITUATION REPORTS

Taiwan, China: Lai's National Day Speech Appeals for Western Support, Irks China

China, Taiwan: Lai's Speeches May Spur New Chinese Military Drills

China: Another Apparent Nuclear-Powered Sub Incident Highlights Taiwan Difficulties

UAE: Abu Dhabi in Talks With Samsung, TSMC on Building Semiconductor Fabrication Plants

Taiwan, China: Second Coastal Breach Highlights Security Issues

China, Pacific Islands: PIF Removes Taiwan Reference After China Complaint

Taiwan: Third Party TPP Stumbles, Hurting the Pro-China Conservative KMT

Taiwan: Third Party TPP Stumbles, Raising Chances for Legislative Swing Bloc

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