United States

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Steve Witkoff, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's incoming special envoy to the Middle East, held discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani separately in late November in a push for a Gaza ceasefire ahead of Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration, Reuters reported Dec. 4.

U.S., Israel, Qatar, Palestinian Territories: Incoming Trump Middle East Envoy Pushes for Gaza Ceasefire

Qatar suspended its role as a mediator in negotiations between Hamas and Israel due to a lack of progress in recent rounds, though it held open the possibility to resume its role if there was a willingness to end the war, CNN reported Nov. 9.

Qatar, Israel, Palestinian Territories: Doha Suspends Mediation Efforts, Reportedly Expels Hamas

Politics

Qatar's Nov. 5 constitutional referendum vote overwhelmingly backed an end to legislative elections that selected two-thirds of the 45-seat Shura Council, Reuters reported Nov. 6. 

Qatar: Constitutional Referendum Votes to End Shura Council Legislative Elections

Ukraine

Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia and Ukraine, with the mediation of Qatar, are set to resume preliminary negotiations on a mutual cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure, the Financial Times reported Oct. 29. 

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine and Russia Resume Talks About Halting Strikes on Energy Infrastructure

Qatar's Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani said he would call for a public referendum to vote on whether or not to shift the country's largely symbolic Shura Council away from direct elections back to an appointed system, Reuters reported on Oct. 15.

Qatar: Referendum Signals Shift Away From Democratization, Liberalization

Iraq

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Turkey and Iraq signed an agreement on military, security and counter-terrorism cooperation, Reuters reported Aug. 15. 

Turkey, Iraq: Baghdad and Ankara Sign Agreements on Military, Security and Counter-Terrorism

Oman

A rare shooting attack occurred near a Shiite mosque on the outskirts of Oman's capital, Muscat, on July 15, resulting in at least six deaths and dozens of injuries, BBC reported the next day.

Oman: Rare Shooting Near Shiite Mosque in Muscat Signals Growing Terrorist Risks

Lebanon

Economics

Energy

Lebanese caretaker Economy Minister Amin Salam said a Qatari offer to build up to three new renewable energy power plants was running into entrenched opposition from local players benefiting from the energy crisis, like generator sellers and "mafia" sources, AP reported on May 30. 

Lebanon: Qatari Offer of New Power Plants Runs Afoul of Entrenched Corruption

Assessments

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Cote d'Ivoire

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Argentina

Brazil

Canada

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Iran

Jordan

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Saudi Arabia

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

A child tapes a stick holding a Hamas flag during a demonstration in support of Palestinian resistance in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on Jan. 12, 2024. 

Hamas' impending expulsion from Qatar will force the group to either relocate its Politburo or disperse its senior leaders across multiple countries, either of which would carry challenges.

With Its Welcome Worn Out in Qatar, Hamas Seeks a New Home Base

Moldova

The first day of early voting in the Nov. 5 U.S. election Oct. 21, 2024, in Stamford, Connecticut. U.S. voters will select a new president, 435 representatives, 34 senators, and any number of state and municipal officials Nov. 5.

Global Elections

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: America Votes, Qatar's Constitutional Referendum

Ethiopia

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Bahrain

Egypt

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Botswana

Comoros

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Lesotho

Madagascar

Malawi

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Seychelles

South Africa

Eswatini

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Vietnam

France

Yael Braun-Pivet, a French lawmaker for the ruling Renaissance party, delivers a speech after being reelected as National Assembly president following the third round of voting on July 18, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: France Resumes Political Horse-Trading, Blinken Returns to Middle East

Participants stand outside the pavilion of Oman as they attend day nine of the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Dec. 9, 2023. 

The July terrorist attack in Oman will likely spark a regional security crackdown, despite the incident's limited political and economic consequences.

A Rare Terrorist Attack in Oman Portends a Regional Security Crackdown

Morocco

Europe

Israeli soldiers guard a barrier, silhouetted against afternoon sun.

As Gaza moves closer to a post-war reality, political limitations in Israel and competing interests abroad muddy the waters of the region's future governance.

For Israel, the Challenge of Gaza's Future Governance Deepens

Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani speaks during a press conference alongside U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 13, 2023. 

As Hamas loses control of Gaza, Qatar's political incentives for hosting the group's political leaders will decrease, which will likely see Doha align its Palestine policies with the other GCC members.

How Will the Gaza War Impact Qatar’s Foreign Policy and Its Ties to Hamas?

Hungary

An Air China aircraft takes off at Sydney Kingsford Smith International Airport in Sydney, Australia.

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: China Braces for Lunar New Year Travel, EU Discusses Funding for Ukraine

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant attend a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv on Oct. 28, 2023, amid ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. 

Israeli assassinations of Hamas officials abroad would likely provoke more antisemitism and rebukes from Western governments, and maintain the risk of regional escalation with Iranian proxies and potentially Iran itself.

The Potential Ramifications of Israel's Alleged Campaign to Kill Hamas Leaders

Students from the American University of Beirut (AUB) rally in support of Palestinians outside the main gate of the university in the Lebanese capital on Oct. 9, 2023. 

Social Issues

Israel's likely ground invasion in Gaza will alienate many Muslims in the Middle East, pressuring their governments to respond in support of Palestinians.

Gauging the Regional Response to the Gaza Conflict

Qatar occupies the Qatar Peninsula, a thumb of land jutting into the middle of the Persian Gulf. It has one land border with Saudi Arabia, but shares waters with Bahrain, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. It has no surface rivers or lakes, and its water supply is buried beneath the sandy desert that is practically the country’s only topographical feature. It lacks forests and, prior to the modern era, could not develop an indigenous agricultural sector.    This makes the country uniquely dependent on the outside world for survival. Qatar possesses proven 885.3 trillion feet of natural gas reserves just beneath the waves of the Gulf in a field it shares with Iran, and it makes Qatar the third-largest holder of light natural gas in the world and the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Since it began exporting LNG, Qatar has become the richest country on Earth per capita. The exports pass through the strategic Strait of Hormuz or are sent through an undersea pipeline to the United Arab Emirates.     After Qatar ceased being a British protectorate in 1971, its royal family declined an offer to join the federation of the United Arab Emirates and chose to chart an independent course. Qatar joined the Gulf Cooperation Council, a regional bloc, in 1981, and although it was officially neutral in the Iran-Iraq War, Qatar joined the coalition to evict Iraq from Kuwait in 1991. In 1996, Qatar began hosting U.S. troops at its Al Udeid air base and opened the offices of the state-sponsored Al Jazeera media outlet. In 2010, it was awarded the rights to the 2022 World Cup.    Its geopolitical position makes Qatar uniquely reliant on open trade for prosperity and outside powers for security. It must have reliable trade routes to export its LNG, and it requires outside sponsors to prevent Saudi Arabia or Iran from gaining too much influence over it. For now, it relies on the United States to provide both. That alliance allows Qatar to maintain a precarious balance against geographically advantaged neighbors.

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Israel, Qatar, Palestinian Territories: Incoming Trump Middle East Envoy Pushes for Gaza Ceasefire

Qatar, Israel, Palestinian Territories: Doha Suspends Mediation Efforts, Reportedly Expels Hamas

Qatar: Constitutional Referendum Votes to End Shura Council Legislative Elections

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine and Russia Resume Talks About Halting Strikes on Energy Infrastructure

Qatar: Referendum Signals Shift Away From Democratization, Liberalization

Turkey, Iraq: Baghdad and Ankara Sign Agreements on Military, Security and Counter-Terrorism

Oman: Rare Shooting Near Shiite Mosque in Muscat Signals Growing Terrorist Risks

Lebanon: Qatari Offer of New Power Plants Runs Afoul of Entrenched Corruption

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