Lebanon

Syria

Military & Security

Lebanon and Syria signed a Saudi-mediated border demarcation agreement on March 27, which is set to expand bilateral cooperation through the formation of legal and specialized committees, AP reported March 28. 

Lebanon, Syria: Lebanon and Syria Reach Border Demarcation, Cooperation Agreement

United States

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

The U.S. State Department approved an initial sale of eight MQ-9B Predator drones to Qatar for $2 billion, AP reported on March 27.

U.S., Qatar: U.S. Starts Approval Process for MQ-9B Drone Sale to Qatar

Economics

Politics

The United States reportedly provided the new Syrian government with a list of conditions to fulfill in exchange for some U.S. sanctions relief and increased recognition of the new regime, including a U.S. statement on Syria's territorial integrity and a two-year extension for an existing sanctions exemption that allows transactions with the Syrian government, Reuters reported on March 25.

Syria, U.S.: U.S. Provides Conditions for Partial Syrian Sanctions Relief

Turkey

Following the deaths of three Syrian soldiers, the Syrian army attacked Lebanese border towns late on March 16, which led the Lebanese Armed Forces to retaliate, Reuters reported on March 17. 

Lebanon, Syria: Border Clashes Follow Deaths of Three Syrian Soldiers

Israel

Energy

Qatar will supply gas to Syria's southern Deir Ali power plant via the Arab Gas Pipeline with U.S. approval, according to a U.S. official, Reuters reported on March 13. 

Syria: Qatar To Start Gas Transfers as Israel Supplies Druze With Food, Interim President Signs Constitution

The U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, agreed to a ceasefire with the interim government and to integrate into the country's state institutions, Reuters reported on March 10, citing a Syrian presidential statement.

Syria: SDF Reaches Ceasefire, Integration Deal With Damascus

Fighting broke out across Latakia province along Syria’s coast over the weekend of March 7-9, with war monitors reporting that up to 1,000 people, mostly civilians, were killed as government forces attacked reported regime elements operating in the area, The New York Times reported on March 9. 

Syria: Mass Killings in Latakia Strain Provisional Transition

Iran

Insurgents linked to former Syrian President Bashar al Assad launched attacks across Latakia on March 6-7, taking control of highways, parts of Latakia city and other strategic sites throughout the province in a coordinated assault, AP reported on March 7.

Syria: Provisional Government Faces Down Alawite Uprising in Latakia

Assessments

An Israeli army vehicle patrols near the fence leading into the U.N.-patrolled buffer zone, which separates Israeli and Syrian forces in the Golan Heights, on Jan. 5, 2025. 

An open-ended Israeli military campaign in southern Syria risks destabilizing the country's fragile political transition and pushing Damascus back toward anti-Israeli forces like Hezbollah and Iran.

Israel's Effort To Secure Post-Assad Syria Risks Doing the Opposite

Iraq

Syrian Kurds wave independence-era flags in support of the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces on Dec. 19, 2024, in the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli.

A rapprochement would boost the odds of Turkish constitutional reform needed to give Erdogan another term, while its failure could presage regionwide violence.

Hints Emerge of a Turkish-Kurdish Thaw

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan welcomes his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani before attending an Arab officials' meeting in Riyadh on Jan. 12, 2025.

Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq aims to counterbalance Turkey, Qatar and Iran but faces limits due to sectarian politics and foreign interference, which may make Riyadh more assertive over time.

Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant

Fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stand atop a humvee in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province during a joint military exercise with the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State on Sept. 7, 2022.

The threat of a Turkish offensive and decreasing U.S. aid will increasingly pressure the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces to reach a deal with Syria's new government. 

The Uncertain Future of U.S.-Backed Kurds in Syria

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Bangladesh

India

The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Social Issues

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

A shuttered hotel is seen in Aleppo, Syria, on Jan. 24, 2025. 

To secure sanctions relief from the West, Syria's new leaders will likely take some symbolic steps toward forming an inclusive government, but any relief may prove temporary if Damascus diverges from its democratic promises.

The Prospect of Sanctions Relief for Post-Assad Syria

Columns

On Geopolitics

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Media

Podcasts

Why did Syria's al Assad regime collapse so quickly after fighting reignited in November 2024?

Essential Geopolitics: Syria after al Assad

Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani holds a press conference in Doha on Jan. 15, 2025, after Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Despite Qatar's success in getting Hamas to accept a ceasefire with Israel, Trump will remain critical of Doha's support for Islamist movements in the region.

For Qatar, the Gaza Ceasefire Will Ease U.S. Pressure -- For Now

Cyber

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Kuwait

Tunisia

United Arab Emirates

Taiwan

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

<p>Modern Syria is located along the eastern Mediterranean Sea, bordering Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq. Syria&rsquo;s main geographic challenge is uniting its diverse ethnic groups under one domestic power. This is the result of mountainous terrain and ethnic cores that contradict the state&rsquo;s current borders. Syria&rsquo;s population is composed of Sunni Arabs, Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and Christians, among others. The traditional core of Syria&#39;s ruling Alawite minority sits on the northern coastal plain to the west of the Jabal an Nusayriya mountains and to the north of the Anti-Lebanon mountains. Between these two ranges, the Homs Gap has often been the point of invasions from the Mediterranean Sea. The interior region is dominated by the majority Sunni Arab peoples. The Syrian Desert divides this area into two competing regions with strong local identities. The first, Damascus, is the historical capital and the modern seat of power for the Alawites. The other, Aleppo, is situated in the agricultural heartlands of the Aleppo plateau. The Euphrates river divides this plateau from the much more arid Jazirah plateau and allows for irrigation in an otherwise desert region. Syria&rsquo;s modern boundaries fall short of the historical concept of Greater Syria&mdash;spanning from Lebanon to the west and Jordan and Israel to the south. Its current borders were set by the League of Nations&#39; French Mandate, following the dismantling of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. Lebanon, especially Beirut, has always been important to Syria because of its trade ports and access to Mediterranean markets. Syria&rsquo;s recent civil unrest is the latest example of its geographic challenge. Maintaining unity remains difficult so long as its current boundaries continue to overlap regional and ethnic fault lines.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Lebanon, Syria: Lebanon and Syria Reach Border Demarcation, Cooperation Agreement

U.S., Qatar: U.S. Starts Approval Process for MQ-9B Drone Sale to Qatar

Syria, U.S.: U.S. Provides Conditions for Partial Syrian Sanctions Relief

Lebanon, Syria: Border Clashes Follow Deaths of Three Syrian Soldiers

Syria: Qatar To Start Gas Transfers as Israel Supplies Druze With Food, Interim President Signs Constitution

Syria: SDF Reaches Ceasefire, Integration Deal With Damascus

Syria: Mass Killings in Latakia Strain Provisional Transition

Syria: Provisional Government Faces Down Alawite Uprising in Latakia

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