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The White House updated its U.S.-India trade deal fact sheet to change wording on agricultural goods, removing references to pulses such as lentils and chickpeas, The Economic Times reported on Feb. 11.

India: U.S. Revises Statement on India Trade Deal 

Indian opposition political parties and farmers' unions pledged to carry out protests over the coming days, including a strike on Feb. 12, to oppose the India-U.S. trade deal, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 9.

India: Opposition Parties, Farmers Pledge Protests After Interim Deal's Framework Announced

Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said Feb. 5 that the United States' reduced tariff rate of 18% on Indian goods will come into effect after the two sides issue a joint statement in the next four to five days, and that the broader, formal trade deal "will take 30-45 days and will be signed in March," Reuters reported.

U.S., India: India's Trade Minister Says U.S. Trade Deal Signing Expected in March

Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the country's FY 2026-27 budget to Parliament on Feb. 1, AFP reported Feb. 2.

India: 2027 Budget Pledges To Increase Investment, Boost Infrastructure Spending

The United States and India have reached a trade deal that will immediately lower U.S. reciprocal tariffs on India from 25% to 18% and will remove an additional 25% tariff the United States imposed on New Delhi last year for its purchases of Russian oil, Reuters reported Feb. 2.

India, U.S.: New Delhi and Washington Reach Trade Deal

Europe

The European Union and India finalized a free trade agreement after nearly two decades of talks, Reuters reported on Jan. 27.

EU, India: FTA Finalized, On Track To Enter Into Force in Early 2027

European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will co-chair an India-EU summit during their visit to India from Jan. 25 to 28 and meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Reuters reported on Jan. 23.

India, EU: High-Ranking EU Officials To Visit India as FTA Negotiations Conclude

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Pakistan

Energy

Military & Security

UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a brief meeting in New Delhi, where the two signed a 10-year liquefied natural gas energy supply agreement under which the United Arab Emirates will supply India with some $3 billion worth of LNG over 10 years, for a total of 0.5 million metric tons of LNG a year, AP reported on Jan. 19.

India, UAE: Governments Sign Energy, Defense Agreements

Snapshots

A freight train on Aug. 26, 2025, in Ajmer India.

A U.S.-India trade deal will bring some relief to Indian exporters, but ambiguities over its scope, implementation timeline and myriad other flashpoints will risk undermining it.

An India-U.S. Trade Deal Will Face Ongoing Hurdles

A burned-out vehicle along a road on the outskirts of the Pakistani city of Quetta on Feb. 1, 2026, a day after an attack by Baloch separatists. The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

With Coordinated Attacks, Pakistan's Baloch Insurgency Intensifies

Assessments

Israel

Palestinian Territories

China

Japan

South Korea

United Kingdom

Egyptian trucks and heavy machinery on Oct. 26, 2025, on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Border Reopening, EU Leaders Visit India

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (right) meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at a hotel in New York City on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly meeting on Sept. 22, 2025. 

Global Trade

A trade deal could gradually reduce barriers in the tech, industrial and energy sectors, but progress will likely remain constrained by U.S. tariff uncertainty and India's reluctance to make concessions in sensitive sectors like agriculture.

Where Things Stand in U.S.-India Trade Talks

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Greenland

Iran

Taiwan

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Oman

New Zealand

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.

New trade pacts offer gains in market access and investment but India's protectionist stance on agriculture and dairy remains an obstacle to deals with the United States and European Union. 


Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.

While Putin's Dec. 4-5 visit may yield some progress in defense, energy and trade cooperation, India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and continues diversifying its arms suppliers.

What To Expect as Putin Visits India

Honduras

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their bilateral meeting during the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin-Modi Meeting, Honduras General Election

Employees work at a garment factory in Tiruppur, in India's southern state of Tamil Nadu, on Sept. 23, 2025.

While the reforms will eventually create a more competitive, transparent and predictable labor market, the potential for uneven state-level adoption and protests will create challenges for companies in the near term. 

India's Labor Code Reforms: Opportunities and Implementation Challenges

Chile

People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

Firefighters douse a car at the suicide blast site in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

While unlikely to trigger immediate retaliation, recent explosions in both New Delhi and Islamabad will sustain the risk of renewed cross-border strikes should either country determine the other was culpable.

Back-to-Back Blasts in India and Pakistan Raise Fears of Another Escalation

<p>India is endowed with favorable geographic barriers. Surrounded by oceans on three sides and the formidable Himalayan Mountains to the north, what is now modern India has been free of outside interference for much of its long history. Its large geographic size and population, coupled with weaker peripheral nations on much of its boundaries, have allowed India to become the dominant force in South Asia. Home to the world&rsquo;s second-largest population, India&rsquo;s 1.3 billion people are spread out across the peninsular nation, from the foothills of the Himalayas to the tropical south. India&rsquo;s population core is settled along the Ganges river basin, a densely populated swath of fertile land that extends across the northern Himalayan border. India&rsquo;s primary geographic challenge comes from a lack of strong internal boundaries. Modern-day India struggles to rectify the ambitions of a relatively weak national government that competes with the prerogatives of strong, diverse states &mdash; a legacy of a long history of domestic infighting between various dynasties uninhibited by mountains or other defining geography. A similar lack of defining geography still plagues India&rsquo;s northwest border. Waves of Greek, Persian, and Mongols invaded, culminating in the Mughal Empire, which united much of the subcontinent prior to British conquest. The northwestern border still poses national security risks, due to ongoing disputes with Pakistan. But rising domestic consumption means India is increasingly dependent on imported goods from distant suppliers. Surrounded by water or impassable mountains, New Delhi now faces the additional task of developing naval capabilities to secure its critical supply routes, risking maritime tensions with China in the broader Indo-Pacific basin.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

India: U.S. Revises Statement on India Trade Deal

India: Opposition Parties, Farmers Pledge Protests After Interim Deal's Framework Announced

U.S., India: India's Trade Minister Says U.S. Trade Deal Signing Expected in March

India: 2027 Budget Pledges To Increase Investment, Boost Infrastructure Spending

India, U.S.: New Delhi and Washington Reach Trade Deal

EU, India: FTA Finalized, On Track To Enter Into Force in Early 2027

India, EU: High-Ranking EU Officials To Visit India as FTA Negotiations Conclude

India, UAE: Governments Sign Energy, Defense Agreements

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