India

Pakistan

Economics

Military & Security

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ruled out dialogue or trade with Islamabad and pledged to make Pakistan's military and economy "pay a heavy price" for any aggression on Indian soil, Bloomberg reported May 22.

India, Pakistan: Modi Rules Out Talks and Trade With Islamabad, Pledges To Withhold Water

Politics

Pakistan's military on May 21 accused India of "plann[ing] and orchestrat[ing]" a suicide bombing earlier the same day that targeted children on their way to a military-run school in Pakistan's restive southwestern province, killing some five people and wounding 38 others, AP reported on May 21.

Pakistan, India: Islamabad Claims Suicide Bombing Targeting Schoolchildren Had Links to India

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

India is reportedly exploring ways to significantly boost its use of water from a key river system that sustains agriculture in Pakistan, Reuters reported on May 16.

India, Pakistan: New Project on Indus River Could Sharply Reduce Water Flow to Pakistan

India and Pakistan announced May 10 that they had reached a ceasefire deal -- facilitated in part by international pressure from countries including the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey -- hours after the two sides' dayslong clashes escalated sharply following kinetic exchanges targeting each other's military assets, AP reported May 10.

India, Pakistan: Ceasefire Announced Following Sharp Escalation

Pakistan's military spokesperson, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, said India targeted three of Pakistan's air force bases: Nur Khan in Rawalpindi, Murid in Murid and Rafiqui in Shorkot, all of which are in Punjab province, DW reported on May 9. 

India, Pakistan: Islamabad Says India's Military Struck Pakistani Air Bases, Including in Rawalpindi

The International Monetary Fund's executive board will conduct the first review of Pakistan's $7 billion bailout program, Arab News reported on May 9.

Pakistan: IMF Executive Board Review Scheduled for May 9

Pakistan said it shot down 25 Indian drones in multiple cities, including Karachi, Lahore and the garrison city of Rawalpindi, while India acknowledged it had "targeted air defense radars and systems" in response to an alleged Pakistani attempt to launch missiles and drones at military targets along the two countries’ border in Kashmir and elsewhere, AP reported on May 8. 

India, Pakistan: Pakistan Claims Downing 25 Drones Day After India's May 7 Strikes

India says its military launched Operation Sindoor early May 7, targeting "terrorist infrastructure" allegedly linked to attacks against India at nine sites in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Pakistan, India's Press Information Bureau reported the same day.

India, Pakistan: India Announces Launch of 'Focused, Measured' Military Operation

Assessments

The Bombay Stock Exchange building May 7 in Mumbai, India. If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

The Economic Case for an India-Pakistan Ceasefire

Snapshots

Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Soldiers and onlookers inspect the debris of a mosque damaged by Indian strikes in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025. 

While a full-scale conflict remains unlikely, escalating tensions will increase security risks in both countries, including travel and business disruptions, nationalist protests, potential militant attacks, and increased cyber threat activity.

India's Retaliation for Kashmir Attack Will Provoke a Pakistani Response

An Indian paramilitary trooper patrols a market area in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, in India-held Kashmir, on April 29, 2025. 

India will likely soon launch limited military strikes against Pakistan in retaliation for the deadly April 22 Kashmir attack, raising the risk of escalation despite both sides' desire to avoid a full-scale war.

The Drivers and Constraints to a Wider India-Pakistan Conflict

Canada

United States

Iran

Europe

Italy

Ukraine

Indian soldiers stand guard atop their vehicle in Srinagar, India, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Escalating Pakistan-India Tensions, Canadian Elections and Pope Francis' Funeral

An Indian paramilitary serviceman keeps watch in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. 

India and Pakistan's exchange of tit-for-tat diplomatic and economic moves is raising the risk of a military escalation, while also fueling domestic unrest due to rising nationalist sentiment in both countries.

India-Pakistan Tensions Surge Following Deadly Kashmir Attack

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

A general view shows Sri Lanka's Colombo port on April 9, 2025.

Global Trade

Textile exports from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan will suffer under new U.S. tariffs, worsening economic hardships and risking political instability.

South Asia's Textile Industry Reels From U.S. Tariffs

China

Bangladeshi soldiers stand guard in Dhaka on July 27, 2024.

Since assuming power in August, Bangladesh's interim government has pursued closer ties with Pakistan and China, deepening India's concerns about regional stability and its declining influence over Dhaka.

Bangladesh's More Assertive Foreign Policy Puts India on Edge

The Geopolitics of Water

South Asia's rising demand for water resources will exacerbate disputes over key waterways, particularly the Brahmaputra and Indus rivers.

The Geopolitics of Water: Regional Rivals Compete for South Asia's Rivers

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The entrance to the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C.

Ahead of the first review of its newest IMF program, Pakistan seeks creditor assurances and a broader tax base.

Pakistan's Path to Meeting IMF Demands

Afghanistan

Taliban security personnel inspect a car damaged by Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan's eastern Paktika province on Dec. 26, 2024. 

While the TTP may not completely follow through on its recent threats, its attacks in Pakistan are set to escalate.

Afghanistan and Pakistan's Deadlock Portends Worsened TTP Attacks

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Qatar

Syria

Tunisia

Turkey

Yemen

Taiwan

Belarus

Russia

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Pakistan is located in South Asia and is bordered by Iran, Afghanistan, China and India. To the north are the Himalayan Mountains, which branch off into the Hindu Kush range. To the southwest is the vast Balochistan Plateau, which is arid and sparsely populated. In the south is the Thar Desert and a 650-mile coast along the Arabian sea. The Indus River begins in the Tibetan Plateau and cuts through the country’s eastern half.  The river nourishes the fertile plains of the Punjab, the country’s populous core region and its political and economic heartland.    Pakistan’s primary geographic challenge arises from its borders, which do not correspond to natural geographic boundaries. The modern borders of Pakistan were created in 1947, when the nation was carved out of the Muslim-majority northwest and northeast portions of India. The countries have fought three wars since independence, and each claims the territory of Kashmir. Bangladesh, then known as “East Pakistan,” gained independence from Pakistan in 1971 with India’s help.  This reinforced the notion within Pakistan that India was an existential threat. Pakistan has long sought to gain influence in Afghanistan, both to secure strategic depth and to prevent Kabul from falling into New Delhi’s orbit.    On the west, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan — called the Durand Line — has remained contentious since the British created it in 1893. Kabul claims that Afghanistan’s true boundary runs deep into Pakistan to absorb the Pashtun tribal belt divided between both countries. The mountainous terrain has made the region difficult to govern, ensuring that the border remains porous.  

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

South Asian Militancy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

SITUATION REPORTS

India, Pakistan: Modi Rules Out Talks and Trade With Islamabad, Pledges To Withhold Water

Pakistan, India: Islamabad Claims Suicide Bombing Targeting Schoolchildren Had Links to India

India, Pakistan: New Project on Indus River Could Sharply Reduce Water Flow to Pakistan

India, Pakistan: Ceasefire Announced Following Sharp Escalation

India, Pakistan: Islamabad Says India's Military Struck Pakistani Air Bases, Including in Rawalpindi

Pakistan: IMF Executive Board Review Scheduled for May 9

India, Pakistan: Pakistan Claims Downing 25 Drones Day After India's May 7 Strikes

India, Pakistan: India Announces Launch of 'Focused, Measured' Military Operation

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