Eritrea

Ethiopia

Military & Security

In the northern town of Weldiya, Ethiopia's federal police seized a freight truck with 57,000 rounds of ammunition, which authorities claimed were destined for Fano insurgents in the country's Amhara region, Reuters reported on Jan. 15. 

Ethiopia: Police Seize Ammunition Convoys Allegedly Destined for Fano, Blames Eritrea, TPLF

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki accused Ethiopia of declaring war on Eritrea in an interview aired on Eritrean state television, Addis Standard reported on Jan. 13. 

Eritrea: President Isaias Accuses Ethiopia of Declaring War on Eritrea

South Sudan

Sudan

United States

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, and allied groups seized the strategic Al-Taqatu' junction and neighboring localities between the towns of Kadugli and Dilling in the central South Kordofan state from the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, the Sudan Tribune reported on Dec. 30.

Sudan: RSF Makes Further Gains in Kordofan as SAF Reinforces Positions in Blue Nile State

Somalia

Egypt

Israel

Politics

The governments of Somalia's Jubaland and Puntland states skipped a meeting convened by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to discuss plans to protect the country's territorial integrity following Israel's Dec. 26 recognition of the independence Somaliland, a breakaway region, Hiiraan Online reported on Dec. 29.

Somalia: Puntland and Jubaland Skip Meeting With Federal Government Over Israeli Recognition of Somaliland

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, warned neighboring countries not to support the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, stressing that Sudan had the right to "defend [its] borders" and would be able to "reach [those who aid the RSF] anywhere," Sudan Tribune reported on Dec. 28.

Sudan: Al-Burhan Warns Against Backing RSF Amid Mounting Speculation of Ethiopian Involvement

Ethiopia's Amhara regional government and Fano militia commander Captain Masresha Setie signed a peace agreement in the presence of officials from the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, or IGAD, Addis Standard reported on Dec. 4.

Ethiopia: Amhara Regional Government Signs Peace Deal With Fano Faction

The government of Ethiopia's Afar region accused the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, which rules the neighboring Tigray region, of launching attacks in the Afar region and capturing six villages, Addis Standard reported on Nov. 5.

Ethiopia: Afar Regional Government Accuses TPLF of Crossing Border, Attacking Civilians

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki began a five-day visit to Egypt on Oct. 30 amid surging tensions with neighboring Ethiopia, which is demanding that Eritrea grant it access to the Red Sea, Addis Standard reported the same day.

Eritrea: President Leads Five-Day Visit to Egypt Amid Surging Tensions With Ethiopia

Assessments

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Economics

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

Snapshots

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.

Worsening tensions over sea access and Eritrea's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government raise the risk of intensifying proxy clashes that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation.

Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026

A Tigrayan flag waves at the entrance of a hospital in Tigray's regional capital, Mekele, on Oct. 10, 2024. 

The ruling TPLF's apparent rapprochement with Eritrea and the rise of anti-TPLF groups are raising the risk of an Ethiopian-Eritrean proxy conflict in Tigray that could eventually spur a larger military escalation.

Ethiopia's Tigray Region Faces a Brewing Storm Amid Shifting Alliances

Internally displaced people walk past the Tigrayan flag at the Tsehaye camp in Ethiopia's Shire, Tigray region, on July 16, 2024. 

Factionalism within the Tigray region's ruling party raises the prospect of resurging clashes in the region, threatening to undermine Ethiopia's recent peace and economic gains.

Tigray's Leadership Tussle Bodes Ill for Ethiopia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Cote d'Ivoire

Rwanda

Senegal

Togo

Uganda

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

Ethiopian military forces transport a Saeer KS-19 automatic 100 mm anti-aircraft gun Dec. 5, 2021, in Shewa Robit, Ethiopia.

A successful peace deal would facilitate humanitarian aid flows, increase regional access to services and spur the eventual return of foreign investment.

Tigrayan Rebels Begin Surrendering Their Heavy Weapons, a Hopeful Sign for Ethiopia

A truck, carrying grains to Tigray and belonging to the World Food Programme (WFP), burns out on a route 80 kilometers from Semera in northeastern Ethiopia, on June 10, 2022. 

Clashes between the government and TPLF rebels will likely persist through at least the end of the year, further complicating efforts to resolve the conflict and mitigate the country's growing humanitarian crisis.

What's Next for Ethiopia's Civil War Amid Renewed Fighting in Tigray?

A photo taken on Jan. 10, 2022, shows an aerial view of Dessie, Ethiopia. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) occupied the city for over 30 days in October. 

Security

East African Integration

The multitude of stakeholders in the conflict -- each with their own aims and deep-rooted grievances -- will limit the effectiveness of peace initiatives and continue to fuel low-level clashes.

In Ethiopia, Ethnic Violence Endures Despite the Government's 'Humanitarian Truce'

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is seen at a ceremony for the signing of a telecom licensing agreement on June 8, 2021. 

The continued escalation of the regional conflict will further jeopardize the prime minister’s political future and economic reforms. 

A Rebel Victory in Tigray Leaves Ethiopia’s Abiy in Hot Water

Members of the Amhara militia fighting alongside Ethiopian forces in Tigray ride on the back of a truck in Gondar, Ethiopia, on Nov. 8, 2020. 

COVID-19

Old Leaders in a New Africa

Environment, Science & Technology

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

Science & Technology

Addis Ababa’s military offensive in Tigray could trigger a wider conflict that further erodes the country’s attractiveness for foreign investment. 


What’s at Stake as Ethiopia Barrels Toward Civil War 

A checkpoint on Sept. 9, 2020, in Mekele, Ethiopia, the day Tigray held regional elections. A military operation against Tigray will not prove easy for the Ethiopian government.

In addition to the secession risk it poses throughout Ethiopia, the conflict could draw in other countries in the region.

Conflict in Tigray Has Major Implications for Ethiopia, and the Region

Eritrea is an East African country on the Horn of Africa. It is bordered by Sudan to the north, the Red Sea to the east, Djibouti to the south and Ethiopia to the west.     By many accounts, the country had a traumatic birth. The area that eventually became Eritrea was colonized by Italy in the late 19th century but was then handed over to Ethiopia after the British secured the area after WWII. After decades of uneasy Ethiopian control, a multi-year insurgency eventually succeeded in wearing down the occupying military in 1991.    The end of the bitter conflict stripped Ethiopia of its access to the sea, forcing it to place greater emphasis on its relations with neighboring Djibouti. The newly independent Eritrea, for its part, had to engage in significant state building with a nearly non-existent economy. Nevertheless, Eritrea maintained its aggressive approach to its military, engaging in conflict with Sudan in 1994, Yemen and Djibouti in 1996 and Ethiopia in 1998. The militarism of the 1990s prompted the rise of tighter measures in the 2000s, though the military kept its place at the top of a single-party state hierarchy.     Since then, Eritrea has struggled to break out of its relative isolation from the international community. The lack of international support and the demands of a state on the near-perpetual brink of war with Ethiopia has necessitated heavy burdens on the local population. Balancing the country's lack of financial resources against its security demands is a key challenge for Eritrea's leadership. For this reason, Eritrea has demanded heavy remittances from its expatriate community and the country would likely be unable to function without regular injections of hard currency. Moreover, Eritrea has likely attempted to destabilize Ethiopia over the years to prevent it from flexing its muscles abroad, potentially against Eritrea. However, keeping Eritrea's military apace with that of the economically booming Ethiopia has proved exceedingly difficult in recent years.  

SITUATION REPORTS

Ethiopia: Police Seize Ammunition Convoys Allegedly Destined for Fano, Blames Eritrea, TPLF

Eritrea: President Isaias Accuses Ethiopia of Declaring War on Eritrea

Sudan: RSF Makes Further Gains in Kordofan as SAF Reinforces Positions in Blue Nile State

Somalia: Puntland and Jubaland Skip Meeting With Federal Government Over Israeli Recognition of Somaliland

Sudan: Al-Burhan Warns Against Backing RSF Amid Mounting Speculation of Ethiopian Involvement

Ethiopia: Amhara Regional Government Signs Peace Deal With Fano Faction

Ethiopia: Afar Regional Government Accuses TPLF of Crossing Border, Attacking Civilians

Eritrea: President Leads Five-Day Visit to Egypt Amid Surging Tensions With Ethiopia

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