Ethiopia

Somalia

Military & Security

Somalia's federal government is expected to allow Ethiopian troops to take part in the new African Union peacekeeping mission set to start in January 2025, Hiiraan Online reported on Dec. 19, citing unnamed diplomatic sources.

Somalia: Government May Allow Ethiopian Troops To Remain in Country

Egypt

Turkey

Politics

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Ethiopia and Somalia had agreed on a joint declaration to resolve their bilateral dispute over Ethiopia's maritime port deal with Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland, the Washington Post reported Dec. 11.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Ethiopia And Somalia Agree Joint Declaration to Deescalate Tensions Over Sea Access 

The government of the Oromia region announced that militants from the Oromo Liberation Army, or OLA, had begun entering designated camps as part of a Dec. 1 peace deal signed between the Ethiopian government and an OLA faction led by Sagni Nagasa, Addis Ababa reported on Dec. 4.

Ethiopia: OLA Faction Begins To Disarm Following Peace Deal With Government

United States

United Arab Emirates

Economics

In a Nov. 30 post on Truth Social, incoming U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to place 100% tariffs on members of the BRICS trade bloc if they backed a new BRICS currency to "replace" the U.S. dollar in international trade.

U.S., BRICS: Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs on BRICS Countries Over Proposed Joint Currency

A brief firefight erupted between troops affiliated with Somalia's federal government and forces linked to the country's southern state of Jubaland in the locality of Ras Kamboni, Garowe Online reported Nov. 26.

Somalia: Tensions Escalate Between Federal Government and Jubaland State 

Ethiopia's parliament approved government proposals to increase public expenditure by around 582 billion Ethiopian birr ($4.8 billion) for the 2024/25 fiscal year, Reuters reported Nov. 26.

Ethiopia: Parliament Approves Supplementary Budget of $4.8 Billion

Somaliland's National Electoral Commission announced that opposition Waddani Party leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi won the territory's Nov. 13 presidential election with 63.92% of votes against 34.82% for incumbent candidate Muse Bihi Abdi, Garowe Online reported on Nov. 19.

Somalia: Opposition Leader Wins Somaliland Presidential Election

The leader of Tigray's interim regional administration, Getachew Reda, reiterated accusations that the Tigray People's Liberation Front leader Debretsion Gebremichael was plotting an "official" coup against the regional administration, Addis Standard reported on Nov. 11. 

Ethiopia: Tigray Regional Administration Reiterates Accusations of TPLF Faction's Coup Plot

Assessments

An illustration of the Ethiopian and Somali flags.

The countries’ commitment to negotiate maritime access reduces immediate conflict risks and could enable Ethiopia to secure leasing rights at Somali ports, but tensions will likely resurge if the two sides fail to finalize a deal.

Ethiopia and Somalia Crack Open the Door To Compromise on Maritime Access

Kenya

South Africa

Brazil

Iran

China

Indonesia

Russia

Moldova

India

Vehicles pass by a banner thanking outgoing Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and congratulating President-elect Prabowo Subianto and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka ahead of their Oct. 20 inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 17, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Case in Kenya, an Inauguration in Indonesia

A Somali National Army soldier participates in a military drill in Mogadishu on March 19, 2024.

Egypt and Somalia's deepening security coordination risks triggering armed clashes with Ethiopia that could undermine regional counterterrorism efforts and inflame ethnic tensions.

The Horn of Africa Braces for Conflict as an Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Yemen

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Eritrea

Internally displaced people walk past the Tigrayan flag at the Tsehaye camp in Ethiopia's Shire, Tigray region, on July 16, 2024. 

Factionalism within the Tigray region's ruling party raises the prospect of resurging clashes in the region, threatening to undermine Ethiopia's recent peace and economic gains.

Tigray's Leadership Tussle Bodes Ill for Ethiopia

The skyline of the western section of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, is seen on Dec. 28, 2020. 

Multilateral support will facilitate the country's debt restructuring, but the enactment of painful economic and monetary reforms could see more Ethiopians join ethnic militias in the short-to-medium term.

Ethiopia's IMF Deal Presages Long-Term Gains but Risks Fueling Security Challenges

Snapshots

Europe

A map illustrating Turkey (in red) and the BRICS countries (in blue).

Joining BRICS would underscore Turkey's balancing act between the West and the Global South, but the organization's weaknesses will limit its potential for economic growth.

For Turkey, BRICS Is Far From a Political and Economic Panacea

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ghana

Malawi

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) speaks as Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani (L), chair of the African Union, listens during a joint press conference following the 2024 Korea-Africa Summit in Goyang, South Korea, on June 4, 2024.

Energy

A recent summit highlights South Korea's commitment to expanding its role in Africa as Yoon looks to strengthen his country's technological future and geopolitical influence.

In South Korea, Yoon's Desire for Supply Chains and Prestige Points to Africa

A photo of the Somali flag.

As Somalia’s president moves to strengthen the country’s fragile state institutions, disputes over constitutional reforms threaten to deepen domestic and regional challenges.

Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad

Senegal

Taiwan

Germany

Displaced Palestinians camp near the fence separating the Gaza Strip from Egypt on Feb. 16, 2024, in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Egypt will continue to prepare a contingency plan in case Palestinians cross the Egypt-Gaza border amid growing signs that the Rafah offensive could start as early as this week.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Egypt Plans for a Palestinian Influx, African Union Heads of State Meet

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attends a press conference in Rome, Italy, on Feb. 6, 2023. 

The implementation of the deal, which will grant land-locked Ethiopia access to the Berbera port in exchange for recognizing Somaliland's independence, could reshape the politics of the Horn of Africa.

The Drivers and Risks of Ethiopia's Historic Pact With Somaliland

Saudi Arabia

Belgium

Leaders at the closing day of the BRICS Summit on Aug. 24, 2023, in Johannesburg. On Jan. 1, BRICS will admit Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia after agreeing at an August summit to expand its membership.

The Weekly Rundown: Taiwan's Election Media Blackout, BRICS Expansion

Ethiopia is an ancient African country bordered by Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, South Sudan and Sudan. Ethiopia's relatively large population of 100 million people has helped the country establish itself as a regional heavyweight in East Africa. Its extensive mountain system, which surrounds the fertile lowland core of the country, is key to understanding Ethiopia's diverse ethnic composition and how it relates to its neighbors. Invasion is not a major concern for Ethiopia, as the northern Ethiopian Plateau and the Ahmar Mountains almost completely surround the lowlands. In the northeast, the Awash River Basin opens to the coastline, but even this area gains a certain measure of protection from its extreme desert conditions. The country's capital, Addis Ababa, sits at an elevated position overseeing the lowlands, where the majority Oromo and Amharic peoples merge with several less populous mountain cultures. Ethiopia's greatest challenge is uniting these disparate groups. Financially, Ethiopia's export and import costs are high because neighbors Djibouti and Eritrea block its sea access. North of the lowland core, the Ethiopian Plateau serves as the country's breadbasket, growing wheat, barley, corn and the staple crop teff. These highlands form an extensive drainage system that creates the most fertile land in the region. Within this region lies Lake Tana, the source of the Blue Nile River, which is the largest tributary of the greater Nile River. Much of Ethiopia's coffee is grown at the fertile apex of the Ahmar Mountains, which are south of the lowlands. Those mountains descend into the arid Ogaden desert, which was acquired in the 19th century and remains disconnected from the core. While it provides Ethiopia with strategic depth to protect it from the issues of its unstable neighbor Somalia, the desert is also home to separatist and Somali militants, which pose a threat to the Ethiopian state.

SITUATION REPORTS

Somalia: Government May Allow Ethiopian Troops To Remain in Country

Ethiopia, Somalia: Ethiopia And Somalia Agree Joint Declaration to Deescalate Tensions Over Sea Access

Ethiopia: OLA Faction Begins To Disarm Following Peace Deal With Government

U.S., BRICS: Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs on BRICS Countries Over Proposed Joint Currency

Somalia: Tensions Escalate Between Federal Government and Jubaland State

Ethiopia: Parliament Approves Supplementary Budget of $4.8 Billion

Somalia: Opposition Leader Wins Somaliland Presidential Election

Ethiopia: Tigray Regional Administration Reiterates Accusations of TPLF Faction's Coup Plot

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