Ethiopia

Somalia

Politics

Somaliland's National Electoral Commission announced that opposition Waddani Party leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi won the territory's Nov. 13 presidential election with 63.92% of votes against 34.82% for incumbent candidate Muse Bihi Abdi, Garowe Online reported on Nov. 19.

Somalia: Opposition Leader Wins Somaliland Presidential Election

Military & Security

The leader of Tigray's interim regional administration, Getachew Reda, reiterated accusations that the Tigray People's Liberation Front leader Debretsion Gebremichael was plotting an "official" coup against the regional administration, Addis Standard reported on Nov. 11. 

Ethiopia: Tigray Regional Administration Reiterates Accusations of TPLF Faction's Coup Plot

Kenya

Egypt

Somalia's defense ministry confirmed on Nov. 8 that Ethiopian forces will not be part of the upcoming African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, or AUSSOM, which will replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia peacekeeping mission in January 2025, BBC Amharic reported on Nov. 10.

Somalia, Ethiopia: Somalia Officially Bars Ethiopia From New AU Mission

Addressing the House of People's Representatives, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed affirmed ongoing talks with select members of armed groups in Amhara and Oromia, despite past failed peace efforts, Addis Standard reported on Oct. 31. 

Ethiopia: Prime Minister Announces Ongoing Talks With Armed Groups in Amhara, Oromia

Nigeria

South Africa

Uganda

Bolivia

Brazil

Cuba

Algeria

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

China

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Uzbekistan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Russia

India

The BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, adopted its summit declaration, which noted the creation of a BRICS "partner country" status, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.

BRICS: Bloc Creates Partner Status, Extends Status to 13 Countries

Economics

Governor of the National Bank of Ethiopia Mamo Mihretu said the central bank would retain high interest rates through the end of 2024 amid concerns of rising inflation caused by the birr’s depreciation after being free-floated in July, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 23. 

Ethiopia: Central Bank To Keep Rates Tight Amid Inflation Concerns

The annual BRICS summit under the motto "Strengthening Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security" commenced in Russia's city of Kazan and will issue its final declaration on Oct. 23, The Moscow Times reported on Oct. 22.

Russia: BRICS Summit Commences in Kazan

Eritrea

Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia agreed to advance joint security cooperation at a trilateral summit of the three countries' heads of state, Reuters reported on Oct. 10.

Africa: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia Advance Tripartite Security Partnership

Assessments

Moldova

Vehicles pass by a banner thanking outgoing Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and congratulating President-elect Prabowo Subianto and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka ahead of their Oct. 20 inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 17, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Case in Kenya, an Inauguration in Indonesia

A Somali National Army soldier participates in a military drill in Mogadishu on March 19, 2024.

Egypt and Somalia's deepening security coordination risks triggering armed clashes with Ethiopia that could undermine regional counterterrorism efforts and inflame ethnic tensions.

The Horn of Africa Braces for Conflict as an Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Bahrain

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Yemen

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Internally displaced people walk past the Tigrayan flag at the Tsehaye camp in Ethiopia's Shire, Tigray region, on July 16, 2024. 

Factionalism within the Tigray region's ruling party raises the prospect of resurging clashes in the region, threatening to undermine Ethiopia's recent peace and economic gains.

Tigray's Leadership Tussle Bodes Ill for Ethiopia

The skyline of the western section of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, is seen on Dec. 28, 2020. 

Multilateral support will facilitate the country's debt restructuring, but the enactment of painful economic and monetary reforms could see more Ethiopians join ethnic militias in the short-to-medium term.

Ethiopia's IMF Deal Presages Long-Term Gains but Risks Fueling Security Challenges

Snapshots

United States

Europe

A map illustrating Turkey (in red) and the BRICS countries (in blue).

Joining BRICS would underscore Turkey's balancing act between the West and the Global South, but the organization's weaknesses will limit its potential for economic growth.

For Turkey, BRICS Is Far From a Political and Economic Panacea

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ghana

Malawi

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) speaks as Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani (L), chair of the African Union, listens during a joint press conference following the 2024 Korea-Africa Summit in Goyang, South Korea, on June 4, 2024.

Energy

A recent summit highlights South Korea's commitment to expanding its role in Africa as Yoon looks to strengthen his country's technological future and geopolitical influence.

In South Korea, Yoon's Desire for Supply Chains and Prestige Points to Africa

A photo of the Somali flag.

As Somalia’s president moves to strengthen the country’s fragile state institutions, disputes over constitutional reforms threaten to deepen domestic and regional challenges.

Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad

Senegal

Taiwan

Germany

Displaced Palestinians camp near the fence separating the Gaza Strip from Egypt on Feb. 16, 2024, in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Egypt will continue to prepare a contingency plan in case Palestinians cross the Egypt-Gaza border amid growing signs that the Rafah offensive could start as early as this week.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Egypt Plans for a Palestinian Influx, African Union Heads of State Meet

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attends a press conference in Rome, Italy, on Feb. 6, 2023. 

The implementation of the deal, which will grant land-locked Ethiopia access to the Berbera port in exchange for recognizing Somaliland's independence, could reshape the politics of the Horn of Africa.

The Drivers and Risks of Ethiopia's Historic Pact With Somaliland

Belgium

Leaders at the closing day of the BRICS Summit on Aug. 24, 2023, in Johannesburg. On Jan. 1, BRICS will admit Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia after agreeing at an August summit to expand its membership.

The Weekly Rundown: Taiwan's Election Media Blackout, BRICS Expansion

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (left) addresses lawmakers in parliament in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on March 28, 2023. 

Even if Ethiopia's failure to pay a Eurobond coupon doesn't lead to a default, the country will likely still face a long and painful economic recovery as it seeks an IMF bailout and external debt restructuring.

A Missed Coupon Payment Fuels Fears of an Ethiopian Default

Ethiopia is an ancient African country bordered by Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, South Sudan and Sudan. Ethiopia's relatively large population of 100 million people has helped the country establish itself as a regional heavyweight in East Africa. Its extensive mountain system, which surrounds the fertile lowland core of the country, is key to understanding Ethiopia's diverse ethnic composition and how it relates to its neighbors. Invasion is not a major concern for Ethiopia, as the northern Ethiopian Plateau and the Ahmar Mountains almost completely surround the lowlands. In the northeast, the Awash River Basin opens to the coastline, but even this area gains a certain measure of protection from its extreme desert conditions. The country's capital, Addis Ababa, sits at an elevated position overseeing the lowlands, where the majority Oromo and Amharic peoples merge with several less populous mountain cultures. Ethiopia's greatest challenge is uniting these disparate groups. Financially, Ethiopia's export and import costs are high because neighbors Djibouti and Eritrea block its sea access. North of the lowland core, the Ethiopian Plateau serves as the country's breadbasket, growing wheat, barley, corn and the staple crop teff. These highlands form an extensive drainage system that creates the most fertile land in the region. Within this region lies Lake Tana, the source of the Blue Nile River, which is the largest tributary of the greater Nile River. Much of Ethiopia's coffee is grown at the fertile apex of the Ahmar Mountains, which are south of the lowlands. Those mountains descend into the arid Ogaden desert, which was acquired in the 19th century and remains disconnected from the core. While it provides Ethiopia with strategic depth to protect it from the issues of its unstable neighbor Somalia, the desert is also home to separatist and Somali militants, which pose a threat to the Ethiopian state.

SITUATION REPORTS

Somalia: Opposition Leader Wins Somaliland Presidential Election

Ethiopia: Tigray Regional Administration Reiterates Accusations of TPLF Faction's Coup Plot

Somalia, Ethiopia: Somalia Officially Bars Ethiopia From New AU Mission

Ethiopia: Prime Minister Announces Ongoing Talks With Armed Groups in Amhara, Oromia

BRICS: Bloc Creates Partner Status, Extends Status to 13 Countries

Ethiopia: Central Bank To Keep Rates Tight Amid Inflation Concerns

Russia: BRICS Summit Commences in Kazan

Africa: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia Advance Tripartite Security Partnership

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