North Korea

South Korea

Ukraine

Russia

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun told parliamentarians during a hearing that North Korea is highly likely to deploy members of its regular armed forces to Ukraine in support of Russia, The Moscow Times reported on Oct. 8.

North Korea, Russia: Pyongyang Deploys Troops to Ukraine in Support of Russia

China

Philippines

Economics

Politics

South Korea and the Philippines upgraded ties to a strategic partnership, with Seoul pledging $1.9 billion in low-interest loans for infrastructure projects in the Philippines, including a ring road in the capital and an eight-mile (13-kilometer) bridge in the central region, the South China Morning Post reported on Oct. 7.

South Korea, Philippines: Seoul Pledges Infrastructure Aid as Countries Upgrade Ties

United States

South Korea and the United States concluded a 12th Special Measures Agreement on cost-sharing for U.S. Forces Korea, or USFK, through 2030, Yonhap News Agency reported on Oct. 4.

South Korea, U.S.: Cost-Sharing Deal on U.S. Forces Korea Stokes Trump Concerns

United Arab Emirates

Taiwan

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The United Arab Emirates is courting South Korea's Samsung and the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, to build advanced semiconductor fabrication plants in the Gulf nation, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 23.

UAE: Abu Dhabi in Talks With Samsung, TSMC on Building Semiconductor Fabrication Plants

Canada

Australia

Japan

New Zealand

United Kingdom

Leaders of the AUKUS grouping (the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia) issued a joint statement on Sept. 18 revealing ongoing consultations with Canada, New Zealand and South Korea to collaborate on Pillar II of the agreement.

AUKUS: Joint Statement Hints at Expansion

Cyber

Japan and Australia signed the Pacific Digital Development Initiative, or PDDI, following a meeting between the countries' defense and foreign ministers, Nikkei Asia reported on Sept. 5.

Japan, Australia: Countries Deepen Cybersecurity, Defense Ties

South Korea's health ministry released a pension reform proposal that would raise wage earners' pension contribution rate from 9% to 13% and hold the nominal income replacement rate at 42% (not continue to cut it to 40% through 2028, as per state plans), Yonhap News Agency reported on Sept. 4.

South Korea: Pension Reform To Hit Legislative Opposition, Spur Protests if Passed

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, on the Liberation Day holiday, revealed a new vision for unification with North Korea, Yonhap News reported Aug. 15.

South Korea, North Korea: Yoon's Unification Vision Remains A Long Shot

Snapshots

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Ghana

Kenya

Malawi

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) speaks as Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani (L), chair of the African Union, listens during a joint press conference following the 2024 Korea-Africa Summit in Goyang, South Korea, on June 4, 2024.

Energy

A recent summit highlights South Korea's commitment to expanding its role in Africa as Yoon looks to strengthen his country's technological future and geopolitical influence.

In South Korea, Yoon's Desire for Supply Chains and Prestige Points to Africa

(From left to right) Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese Premier Li Qiang attend a joint press conference during a trilateral summit on May 27, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Barring major economic and political shifts, cooperation between the three countries is unlikely to notably improve, as Seoul and Tokyo's strategic interests will remain largely at odds with Beijing's.

Reviewing the China-Japan-South Korea Summit: A Long Shot Effort To Ease Tensions

Assessments

Global Elections

While President Biden would be expected to continue to build and strengthen alliances with America's key allies in the northern Asian region, the reelection of President Trump could spur those same allies to look beyond the U.S. for their physical and economic security.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, Northern Asia and Geopolitical Risk: What to Expect

South Africa

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Supporters of the African National Congress (ANC) party dance, sing and chant slogans during a campaign march on May 24, 2024, in Johannesburg, South Africa. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Africa's General Election, Israel Resumes Hostage Talks With Hamas

Natsumi Sakai (C) of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan poses with others after receiving news that she won the by-election for the Tokyo No. 15 district seat for the lower house, in Tokyo, Japan, on April 28, 2024.

Recent by-elections reveal that a slush fund scandal is continuing to take its toll on Japan's ruling party, but Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is set to remain in power, for now.

By-Election Losses Shake Japan's Ruling Party, but Kishida Stays the Course

Columns

On Geopolitics

Fiji

Indonesia

Singapore

Vietnam

India

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

U.S.-China Relations

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands following a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Greater U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict.

Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China

Iran

Poland

People attend an April 5, 2024, funeral procession for seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in an Israeli strike in Syria.

The Weekly Rundown: The Threat of Iranian Retaliation Against Israel, Polish Local Elections

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol gives a speech on the government budget at the National Assembly in Seoul on Oct. 31, 2023.

A conservative victory in the April 10 ballot would accelerate pro-business policies and boost the country's arms industry, while a liberal victory would perpetuate pro-labor and green transition policies.

Legislative Elections Will Prove Pivotal for South Korea's Lame Duck President

Venezuela

Egypt

Europe

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on March 14, 2024, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland.

The Weekly Rundown: Dueling U.S. and Chinese Diplomacy, a European Council Summit

Doctors shout slogans during a rally to protest against the government's plan to raise the annual enrollment quota at medical schools, near the Presidential Office in Seoul on Feb. 25, 2024.

The president will try to capitalize on voters' frustration with the ongoing strike to secure a conservative majority in the National Assembly, which would enable him to more avidly pursue his pro-business agenda and deterrence strategy against North Korea.

In South Korea, a Doctors' Strike Could Play in Yoon's Favor Ahead of Legislative Elections

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Argentina

Mexico

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

France

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

The Republic of Korea, also called South Korea, occupies the southern half of a peninsula that juts out of the Asian mainland toward Japan. The country shares its only land border with North Korea, which it also borders in the Yellow and East seas. It shares maritime borders with Japan to the east and China to the west. South Koreas primary geographic challenges are overcoming internal fractures to maintain cohesion, and securing its maritime sphere and its southwest lowland pockets from its more powerful neighbors.    The ancient kingdoms of Baekje and Silla occupied the distinct geographic pockets of the southern peninsula, standing in contrast to a more unified space where North Korea now sits. The Taebaek mountains run along much of South Korea's eastern coast, largely protecting the country from invasion by sea from this direction. These mountain ranges provide a level of protection to the peninsula's most vulnerable feature: a north-south corridor of lowlands and hills along the west coast. This coast (as well as much of South Korea's southern coastline) is protected from easy landing by countless islands, mudflats and tidal rips.     However, the Nakdong River valley at Pusan offers a point of incursion to would-be invaders. From here, they can pass over the lower elevations of the Sobaek Mountains and onward to the western core. This has been the gateway for those seeking to control the peninsula, from the failed 16th century invasions of Japanese Daimyō Toyotomi Hideyoshi to the Japanese empire's later efforts in the 19th century. A North Korean invasion in 1950 (repelled by U.N. forces defending the Pusan Perimeter) highlights another key vulnerability for South Korea: the potential for incursions from the north via the western coastal strip. To hedge against aggression from all directions, South Korea is focused on securing its maritime space, particularly in the south and west. The country has prioritized its possession of Jeju Island in the Jeju Strait and has in the past held claims to Tsushima Island. Disputes with China over the Socotra Rock in the Yellow Sea and with Japan over Dokdo in the East Sea are also important elements of South Korea's overall maritime strategy.     The Korean Peninsula's historic policy of isolation was one way of remaining out of the crosshairs of its neighbors, but it has also aligned itself with rival powers throughout its history. Most recently, South Korea has used a third party — the United States — to maintain balance against neighbors that threaten it from sea and land. 

SITUATION REPORTS

North Korea, Russia: Pyongyang Deploys Troops to Ukraine in Support of Russia

South Korea, Philippines: Seoul Pledges Infrastructure Aid as Countries Upgrade Ties

South Korea, U.S.: Cost-Sharing Deal on U.S. Forces Korea Stokes Trump Concerns

UAE: Abu Dhabi in Talks With Samsung, TSMC on Building Semiconductor Fabrication Plants

AUKUS: Joint Statement Hints at Expansion

Japan, Australia: Countries Deepen Cybersecurity, Defense Ties

South Korea: Pension Reform To Hit Legislative Opposition, Spur Protests if Passed

South Korea, North Korea: Yoon's Unification Vision Remains A Long Shot

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