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Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine deployed military specialists and interception units to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan to help protect critical and civilian infrastructure from Iranian drone attacks, Reuters reported on March 20.

Ukraine, MENA: Kyiv Deploys Counter-Drone Units to the Middle East

United States

Bahrain

Iraq

Israel

Lebanon

Azerbaijan

Energy

The U.S. and Israel-Iran war has entered its second phase as U.S. and Israeli strikes have increasingly targeted Iran's underground ballistic missile sites and as the pace of Iranian attacks has slowed over the past several days, Reuters reported on March 4. 

MENA: Iran War Enters Second Phase

Middle East and North Africa

Politics

U.S.-Iran Relations

Iran attacked the U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, resulting in their closures and calls for nonessential U.S. personnel to evacuate from the region, The New York Times reported March 3. 

MENA: Iran Attacks Diplomatic, Military, Commercial Targets in Gulf; Threatens Strait of Hormuz

Equatorial Guinea

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Nigeria

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Russia

At their Nov. 2 meeting, the eight OPEC+ countries implementing voluntary production cuts agreed to boost production by 137,000 barrels per day in December -- the third consecutive small production hike of that level -- but plan to pause production hikes from January-March 2026, Reuters reported. 

OPEC+: Bloc To Halt Production Hikes in Early 2026 Amid Oil Glut, Russian Sanctions Concerns

OPEC+ will likely decide to increase its oil production in November by at least 137,000 barrels per day when the group meets on Oct. 5, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 28.

Global: OPEC+ Likely To Approve Another Production Hike at Next Meeting

Economics

On Sept. 7, OPEC+ agreed to increase its oil production quota by 137,000 barrels per day in October, though it did not publish any guidance on production levels beyond October.

OPEC+: Bloc To Lift Oil Production Further in October

Oman

Gulf Arab states condemned Israel's June 13 attack on Iranian nuclear and military targets in a series of official statements, Al Jazeera reported on June 13. 

GCC, Israel: GCC Countries Condemn Israeli Attacks on Iran

Angola

Kazakhstan

OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the organization announced in a May 31 communique.

Global: OPEC+ Approves Third Accelerated Production Hike, But Russia-Saudi Tensions May Rise

Assessments

People walk along the corniche area on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, in Abu Dhabi on March 20, 2026.

Global Trade

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will compel Gulf Cooperation Council states to invest in alternative trade routes and more resilient physical infrastructure.

Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot

The Crown Plaza on March 1 showing damage from an Iranian military strike in Manama, Bahrain. Iran's attacks will push the Gulf Arab states more toward security alignment with the United States, and threaten their status as a secure investment destination.

Iran's attacks will push the Gulf Arab states more toward security alignment with the United States, and threaten their status as a secure investment destination.

The Implications of Iran's Attacks on the Gulf

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks to U.S. and Qatari military personnel at the Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar, on May 15, 2025.

The U.S. president's pledge to defend Qatar may deter future Israeli attacks, but it is unlikely to deter Iranian aggression or allay Gulf states' greater concerns about Washington's commitment to their security.

Trump's Security Guarantees for Qatar Unlikely To Offer Enough Reassurance

Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani chairing a preparatory meeting in Doha on Sept. 14, 2025, ahead of an Arab Islamic summit.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Sept. 9 strike on Qatar has amplified doubts among Gulf states about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees and Washington's ability to restrain its regional allies.

Israeli Strike on Qatar Prompts GCC States To Question Future of Regional Security

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary-General Jassim al-Budaiwi and the foreign ministers from the six GCC countries (Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates) pose for a group photo during the GCC foreign minister meeting in Kuwait City on June 2, 2025.

Despite global economic uncertainty and oil price volatility, Gulf Arab states are expected to sustain solid economic growth, driven by strong fundamentals, substantial buffers and ongoing diversification efforts.

Solid Fundamentals Shield GCC Economies From Global Volatility

Media

Podcasts

How have Gulf Arab states' positions on the Israel-Iran conflict evolved?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Gulf-Iranian Relations

China

Over the next decade, Gulf Arab states will increase oil and gas exports to emerging Asian markets, seeking alternatives to the U.S. amid tariff uncertainty. But the region's military and tech ties with the U.S. will remain strong.

Geopolitics of Trade: Gulf Arab States Balance Diversification With Enduring U.S. Ties

Snapshots

Kuwaiti traders follow the stock market activity at the Boursa Kuwait stock exchange building in Kuwait City on April 7, 2025. 

The law will enable external borrowing to finance the country's deficits and Vision 2035 investments, but Kuwait's growing reliance on debt markets to increase capital expenditure could eventually prove problematic. 

After Eight Years of Gridlock, Kuwait Finally Passes a New Debt Law

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

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Tunisia

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Ethiopia

Sudan

Egypt

Palestinian Territories

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Participants stand outside the pavilion of Oman as they attend day nine of the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Dec. 9, 2023. 

The July terrorist attack in Oman will likely spark a regional security crackdown, despite the incident's limited political and economic consequences.

A Rare Terrorist Attack in Oman Portends a Regional Security Crackdown

By dissolving parliament and suspending articles of the constitution, Kuwait's emir is hoping to finally enact overdue economic reforms. But fears of sparking public backlash will still limit the scope of those reforms.

Kuwait's Dissolved Parliament Clears the Way for Stalled Economic Reforms

The emirate of Kuwait is on the northwestern edge of the Persian Gulf, nestled between Iraq and Saudi Arabia and narrowly divided by land from Iran. Iraq's border blocks Kuwait from the fertile river lands of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, leaving the country a hot, waterless desert with no natural year-round rivers or lakes. Kuwait is, however, rich in hydrocarbons beneath its largely sandy desert.    Because of their country's low rainfall and poor soil, Kuwaitis used to live off pearling and trade and were usually dominated by whoever controlled Iraq to the north. That often made Kuwait a borderland of empires, as its settled population interacted with merchants and traders out of Iraq and Iran and the Bedouins who traveled up from Arabia. These interactions left Kuwait's population divided between Bedouins, Sunnis and Shiites.    After World War I broke up the Ottoman Empire, Kuwait achieved independence as a British protectorate. The discovery of hydrocarbons in the 1930s allowed Kuwait to rapidly transform its economy and modernize. But it still faced the challenge of needing access to trade routes and protection from powers in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran. At various times, Kuwait leans on different neighbors to balance them against one another, as it did when it aligned with Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. Most recently, Kuwait has relied on its alliance with the United States to ensure its independence and access to global trade routes via the Strait of Hormuz.      To ensure its security, Kuwait must have a sponsor, whether in the region or beyond it, who sees value in its independence and can guarantee its access to trade. And it must also balance its divided population, whose divisions can pull the country towards different neighbors at different times. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, MENA: Kyiv Deploys Counter-Drone Units to the Middle East

MENA: Iran War Enters Second Phase

MENA: Iran Attacks Diplomatic, Military, Commercial Targets in Gulf; Threatens Strait of Hormuz

OPEC+: Bloc To Halt Production Hikes in Early 2026 Amid Oil Glut, Russian Sanctions Concerns

Global: OPEC+ Likely To Approve Another Production Hike at Next Meeting

OPEC+: Bloc To Lift Oil Production Further in October

GCC, Israel: GCC Countries Condemn Israeli Attacks on Iran

Global: OPEC+ Approves Third Accelerated Production Hike, But Russia-Saudi Tensions May Rise

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