Europe

Ukraine

Russia

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides in Nicosia as Cyprus assumed the European Union's rotating presidency, Reuters reported on Jan. 8. 

Ukraine, EU: Zelensky Pushes EU Accession as Security Guarantees Remain Unclear

United States

Moscow warned that any Western troops, bases or military infrastructure in Ukraine would be classified as foreign intervention and treated as legitimate combat targets by the Russian armed forces, the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement on Jan. 8.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Warns Against Western Troops in Ukraine, Ceasefire Talks Progress

China

Cyber

The China-backed cyber threat actor Salt Typhoon has accessed email systems of congressional staff on several committees of the U.S. House of Representatives, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 7.

U.S., China: Salt Typhoon Breached Congressional Committee Staff Emails

U.S.-China Relations

Uganda

Economics

The leader of Uganda's opposition National Unity Platform, or NUP, Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, better known as Bobi Wine, called for a freeze on aid and development financing to Uganda, arguing this aid was funding government repression against the opposition, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 8.

Uganda: Opposition Leader Calls for Aid Freeze Over Government Crackdown Ahead of General Election 

Syria

Turkey

The Syrian army issued an evacuation order for parts of Aleppo and subsequently launched a "limited operation" against military targets associated with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, in order to push the group out of the country's second-largest city and strengthen the government's control over it, Reuters reported on Jan. 8. 

Syria: Clashes With the SDF Intensify in Aleppo

Cambodia

Thailand

Cambodia announced that an unspecified senior U.S. State Department official will visit its capital, Phnom Penh, to assist in stabilizing the country's fragile ceasefire with Thailand, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 8.

Cambodia, U.S.: State Department Official To Visit Phnom Penh

Israel

Lebanon

The Lebanese Armed Forces announced the completion of the first phase of its plan to disarm non-state armed groups south of the Litani River, namely Hezbollah, AP reported on Jan. 8.

Lebanon: Army Announces End of First Phase of Disarmament Plan

Venezuela

U.S. security forces launched an operation to seize an oil tanker, the Russia-flagged Marinera, formerly known as the Bella 1, in the North Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Iceland, despite Russia's deployment of naval vessels to escort the ship and a request that the United States stop pursuing the tanker, BBC reported on Jan. 7. 

U.S., Russia, Venezuela: U.S. Conducts Operation To Seize Russia-Flagged Tanker

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant military analyses. 

Below are our latest and most relevant military analyses. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

The Syrian Civil War

The Yemen Civil War

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Ukraine Conflict

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

The Battle for Mosul

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

The Jihadist Wars

Echoes of the Cold War

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Columns

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Snapshots

Israeli troops patrol the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights on July 23, 2025. 

While the new U.S.-backed intelligence-sharing agreement will help temporarily ease cross-border tensions, unresolved security issues and structural constraints undermine the prospects for deeper normalization.

Syria-Israel Deal Paves Way for Broader Security Coordination, but Constraints Remain

Assessments

Iran

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

Forecast Webcast

Energy

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Sudan

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026. 

Social Issues

The Gulf nations' growing battle for influence is straining bilateral ties and fueling proxy conflicts in places like Yemen and Sudan, though both sides will likely avoid any escalation that could harm their economies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World

Greenland

Denmark

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Brazil

Colombia

Guyana

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. 

Venezuela's acting president is most likely to cooperate with the United States to keep the country's regime intact, but other, more volatile scenarios remain possible. 

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.

The detention of the Venezuelan president creates a power vacuum that risks triggering violent unrest while establishing a precedent for further U.S. interventionism in Latin America.

U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region

North Korea

South Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Global Trade

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Australia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Military & Security

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, EU: Zelensky Pushes EU Accession as Security Guarantees Remain Unclear

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Warns Against Western Troops in Ukraine, Ceasefire Talks Progress

U.S., China: Salt Typhoon Breached Congressional Committee Staff Emails

Uganda: Opposition Leader Calls for Aid Freeze Over Government Crackdown Ahead of General Election

Syria: Clashes With the SDF Intensify in Aleppo

Cambodia, U.S.: State Department Official To Visit Phnom Penh

Lebanon: Army Announces End of First Phase of Disarmament Plan

U.S., Russia, Venezuela: U.S. Conducts Operation To Seize Russia-Flagged Tanker

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support