United States

Iran

Military & Security

In a Truth Social post, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States was "locked and loaded" and would intervene if Iran's government killed peaceful protesters in the current anti-government uprising affecting several Iranian cities.

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens To Intervene if Iran Kills Peaceful Protesters

Ukraine

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Kyrylo Budanov, the 39-year-old head of Ukraine's military intelligence service (HUR), as his new chief of staff, filling the post vacated in November by Andriy Yermak after a corruption scandal, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported Jan. 2.

Ukraine: Zelensky Names Head of Military Intelligence as New Chief of Staff 

Russia

The Kremlin's move to publicize more purported evidence of a Ukrainian attack on Putin's residence comes at a critical point in peace negotiations, reflecting Russia's aim to manipulate the narrative and weaken support for Kyiv. 

Russia: GRU Head Presents U.S. Attache With Data From Alleged Drone Attack on Putin's Residence

Yemen

The leader of Yemen's separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) announced the "beginning of a two-year transition phase" toward establishing an independent southern Yemeni state, and called for a referendum vote on self-determination, Al Jazeera reported Jan. 2.

Yemen: STC Announces 'Two-Year Transition Phase' in Push for an Independent Southern State

Somalia

Turkey

Energy

Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said that Turkey will dispatch an oil exploration vessel off the coast of Somalia to conduct its first deepwater exploration efforts in the country next month, without specifying where exploration works would take place, Reuters reported on Jan. 2.

Somalia: Turkey To Begin Deepwater Oil Exploration as Construction Starts on Spaceport 

Israel

Somaliland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's claim that the breakaway region would host an Israeli military base and accept resettled Palestinians, the Times of Israel reported on Jan. 1.

Somalia: Somaliland Rejects Somali Claims That It Will Host Israeli Base

Asia-Pacific

Philippines

Economics

The chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was passed from Malaysia to the Philippines on Jan. 1, The Star reported. As 2026 chair, Manila will set the bloc's agenda for the year.

Asia-Pacific: The Philippines Assumes 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

Indonesia

Indonesia has formally enforced its new Criminal Code, which was passed in 2022 and replaces a Dutch colonial-era legal framework that had governed criminal law in the country for more than a century, the Jakarta Globe reported Jan. 2.

Indonesia: New Criminal Code Takes Effect, Replacing Colonial-Era Legal Framework

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant military analyses. 

Below are our latest and most relevant military analyses. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Europe

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

The Syrian Civil War

The Yemen Civil War

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

Cyber

The Ukraine Conflict

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

The Battle for Mosul

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

The Jihadist Wars

Echoes of the Cold War

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Snapshots

Venezuela

Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.

The detention of the Venezuelan president creates a power vacuum that risks triggering violent unrest while establishing a precedent for further U.S. interventionism in Latin America.

U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region

Assessments

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

China

North Korea

South Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Global Trade

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

U.S.-China Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Flight routes.

Environment, Science & Technology

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.

The Trump administration will likely soon launch more strikes inside Venezuela following the reported CIA drone attack on a suspected drug port, though a U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Sudan

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Media

Podcasts

How has U.S. interest in the Middle East evolved over time? 

Essential Geopolitics: A Historical Look Back on U.S.-Middle East Relations

A general view shows the closed border checkpoint between Cambodia and Thailand in Poipet, Cambodia, on Dec. 12, 2025, amid clashes in the area.

The Southeast Asian countries' second pause following the failed July ceasefire remains highly fragile due to early alleged violations and unresolved territorial disputes, which could lead to renewed large-scale fighting in the years ahead.

Another Thai-Cambodian Truce Halts Escalating Border Clashes -- For Now

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

A U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II on Dec. 15 taxis at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.

The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami

Military & Security

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens To Intervene if Iran Kills Peaceful Protesters

Ukraine: Zelensky Names Head of Military Intelligence as New Chief of Staff

Russia: GRU Head Presents U.S. Attache With Data From Alleged Drone Attack on Putin's Residence

Yemen: STC Announces 'Two-Year Transition Phase' in Push for an Independent Southern State

Somalia: Turkey To Begin Deepwater Oil Exploration as Construction Starts on Spaceport

Somalia: Somaliland Rejects Somali Claims That It Will Host Israeli Base

Asia-Pacific: The Philippines Assumes 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

Indonesia: New Criminal Code Takes Effect, Replacing Colonial-Era Legal Framework

Forecasts

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