United States

China

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Chinese security forces detained six members of the Early Rain Covenant Church, an unregistered "house church," in Chengdu on Jan. 6, Reuters reported the next day. 

China, U.S.: Christian Detentions Continue as Xi Suppresses Dissent, Risking U.S. Ties

U.S.-China Relations

Venezuela

Energy

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela would turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil worth up to $2.8 billion to the United States, Reuters reported on Jan. 6.

U.S., Venezuela: Washington Announces Oil Deal With Caracas Worth Up To $2.8B

Myanmar

The Kawthoolei Army, a splinter group of the Karen ethnic community that has broken away from the larger Karen National Union, or KNU, proclaimed the independence of the Republic of Kawthoolei and announced a provisional government during a ceremony near the Thailand-Myanmar border, though the KNU quickly rejected the declaration, The Nation Thailand reported on Jan. 7.

Myanmar: Splinter Group Declares Independence Amid Election Violence

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemen's Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council, or PLC, expelled Aidarous al-Zubaidi, the leader of the separatist, Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council, or STC, from the ruling coalition, referring him to the attorney general for treason charges, AP reported on Jan. 6. 

Yemen: PLC Declares STC Head a Traitor, Retakes STC Stronghold

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine's allies, representing the "Coalition of the Willing," agreed in Paris, France, to extend multilayered international security guarantees as part of a U.S.-brokered peace proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, AP reported on Jan. 6.

Ukraine, Europe, U.S.: Security Guarantees for Ukraine Emerge, but Key Details Remain Unresolved

U.S. government officials have outlined to Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez that Washington's main priorities for Caracas are fighting drug trafficking, removing from the country operatives from Iran, Cuba and other nations hostile to the United States, and halting the shipment of oil to U.S. adversaries, Politico reported on Jan. 5.

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. Officials Outline Priorities for Caracas After Maduro's Departure

Japan

China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Jan. 6 that it was banning all exports of items on its list of dual-use goods to "Japanese military users, for military purposes, and for any other end-user purposes that could enhance Japan's military capabilities."

China, Japan: Export Curbs To Impede Japan's Military Modernization, Harden Its National Security Focus

Central African Republic

The Central African Republic's President Faustin-Archange Touadera was reelected in the Dec. 28, 2025, presidential election with 76.15% of the vote, according to provisional results announced by the electoral commission and reported by Jeune Afrique on Jan. 6.

Central African Republic: Incumbent Declared Winner of Presidential Poll as Opposition Leader Claims Victory

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant military analyses. 

Below are our latest and most relevant military analyses. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

The Syrian Civil War

The Yemen Civil War

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

Cyber

The Ukraine Conflict

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

The Battle for Mosul

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

The Jihadist Wars

Echoes of the Cold War

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

Sudan

Syria

Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026. 

Social Issues

The Gulf nations' growing battle for influence is straining bilateral ties and fueling proxy conflicts in places like Yemen and Sudan, though both sides will likely avoid any escalation that could harm their economies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World

Greenland

Denmark

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Brazil

Colombia

Guyana

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. 

Venezuela's acting president is most likely to cooperate with the United States to keep the country's regime intact, but other, more volatile scenarios remain possible. 

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.

The detention of the Venezuelan president creates a power vacuum that risks triggering violent unrest while establishing a precedent for further U.S. interventionism in Latin America.

U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region

North Korea

South Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Global Trade

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Turkey

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Mongolia

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.

The Trump administration will likely soon launch more strikes inside Venezuela following the reported CIA drone attack on a suspected drug port, though a U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Media

Podcasts

How has U.S. interest in the Middle East evolved over time? 

Essential Geopolitics: A Historical Look Back on U.S.-Middle East Relations

A general view shows the closed border checkpoint between Cambodia and Thailand in Poipet, Cambodia, on Dec. 12, 2025, amid clashes in the area.

The Southeast Asian countries' second pause following the failed July ceasefire remains highly fragile due to early alleged violations and unresolved territorial disputes, which could lead to renewed large-scale fighting in the years ahead.

Another Thai-Cambodian Truce Halts Escalating Border Clashes -- For Now

Military & Security

SITUATION REPORTS

China, U.S.: Christian Detentions Continue as Xi Suppresses Dissent, Risking U.S. Ties

U.S., Venezuela: Washington Announces Oil Deal With Caracas Worth Up To $2.8B

Myanmar: Splinter Group Declares Independence Amid Election Violence

Yemen: PLC Declares STC Head a Traitor, Retakes STC Stronghold

Ukraine, Europe, U.S.: Security Guarantees for Ukraine Emerge, but Key Details Remain Unresolved

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. Officials Outline Priorities for Caracas After Maduro's Departure

China, Japan: Export Curbs To Impede Japan's Military Modernization, Harden Its National Security Focus

Central African Republic: Incumbent Declared Winner of Presidential Poll as Opposition Leader Claims Victory

Forecasts

ANALYSES

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