Cuba

United States

Military & Security

Politics

The U.S. military is planning for a possible operation in Cuba in the event that U.S. President Donald Trump gives an order to intervene, USA Today reported on April 15, citing two unnamed sources.

U.S., Cuba: Sources Report Pentagon Planning Military Operation in Cuba

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a Truth Social post that Israeli and Lebanese officials had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, beginning at 5 p.m. Eastern time on April 16, AP reported the same day.

U.S., Lebanon, Israel: Trump Announces 10-Day Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

Australia

Economics

On April 16, Australia released its 2026 National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Program, saying defense spending will rise to 3% of gross domestic product by 2033 "under the NATO approach" from its current approximate 2%.

Australia: Canberra To Increase Defense Spending to 3% of GDP by 2033

Energy

U.S.-Iran talks are progressing, including a potential Iranian offer to partially normalize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by allowing ships to pass through Omani, rather than international, waters without fear of attack or toll, Reuters reported on April 15. 

U.S., Iran: Breakthrough on Strait of Hormuz Is Possible, but Comprehensive Deal Remains Distant

U.S.-Iran Relations

Somalia

Somali opposition figures, including the Somali Future Council coalition, or SFC, and former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, said the term of Somalia's parliament had expired, and both the SFC and Farmajo stressed that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term would expire on May 15, Somalia Today reported on April 15. 

Somalia: Dispute Over Duration of Presidential, Parliamentary Terms Portends Constitutional Crisis

Ethiopia

The chief administrator of Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, Lt. Gen. Tadesse Werede, said he would not step down after Ethiopia's federal government extended his term for one year, Addis Standard reported on April 15.

Ethiopia: Tigray Chief Administrator Says He Will Not Step Down Amid TPLF Pressure

Azerbaijan

Russia

Russia and Azerbaijan said they had agreed to settle the consequences of the December 2024 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 near Aktau, Kazakhstan, including compensation payments, and stated the incident resulted from the unintended operation of a Russian air defense system, a joint foreign ministry statement published on April 15 said.

Russia, Azerbaijan: Moscow and Baku Settle 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines Crash Dispute

Indonesia

France

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto met French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, where the two sides agreed to strengthen cooperation in defense procurement, defense industrial cooperation and energy transition work, AFP reported on April 15.

Indonesia, France: Paris Visit Advances Defense Buildout as Jakarta Broadens Strategic Options

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant military analyses. 

Below are our latest and most relevant military analyses. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

The Syrian Civil War

The Yemen Civil War

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

Cyber

The Ukraine Conflict

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

The Battle for Mosul

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

The Jihadist Wars

Echoes of the Cold War

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Maldives

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

A passenger boat sails past the Indian-flagged oil tanker Kashimasan, which is docked near an offloading terminal at Butcher Island (also known as Jawahar Dweep) off the coast of Mumbai, India, on April 1, 2026.

Energy and fertilizer price shocks from the Iran war will increasingly threaten energy supplies, crop yields and economic growth across the region, pressuring governments' foreign exchange reserves and heightening unrest risks.

In South Asia, Iran War Fallout Risks Worsening Economic and Political Instability

Nigeria

The Dangote petroleum refinery plant is seen in Lagos, Nigeria, on April 6, 2026.

Nigeria will enjoy a short-term revenue boost from elevated oil prices, but the potential for renewed instability in the Niger Delta could undermine efforts to increase oil production.

Nigeria's Oil Gains From Iran War Face Old Challenges

China

Philippines

Vietnam

A Chinese navy ship (background left) is seen while an Australian navy ship (right) takes part in a maritime cooperative activity with the Philippines and Canada in the disputed waters of the South China Sea on Sept. 3, 2025.

China, the Philippines and Vietnam's efforts to rebalance coercive activity with diplomatic engagement have temporarily lowered escalation risks, but persistent rivalries ensure long-term volatility.

In the South China Sea, Managed Tension Masks Long-Term Volatility

Yemen

U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaks as special envoys Jared Kushner (L) and Steve Witkoff listen during a news conference after a meeting with representatives from Pakistan and Iran on April 12, 2026, in Islamabad, Pakistan. 

The U.S. blockade may not immediately collapse the ceasefire with Iran, but it will further disrupt maritime shipping and the global economy.

After U.S.-Iran Talks Fail, Washington Moves To Blockade the Strait of Hormuz

Canada

Peru

Hungary

A digital screen displaying news of U.S.-Iran peace talks April 10 in Islamabad. The United States and Iran are set to begin contentious talks April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, with disputes over the 10-point proposal as a framework for discussions and major gaps between U.S. and Iranian demands.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Talks, Hungarians Vote

Snapshots

Haiti

Debris surrounds a school destroyed by armed gangs back in 2024 in the Solino neighborhood of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on March 3, 2026.

Haiti's extreme insecurity and political instability are highly unlikely to improve ahead of planned elections in August, raising the risk of mass unrest that could collapse the already weakened government.

Haiti's Security and Political Crises Heighten Risk of State Collapse

A satellite view of the Persian Gulf, with the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint seen on the right.

Global Trade

Fears that U.S.-Iran talks will collapse, along with Iran's ongoing efforts to formalize its authority over the strait by imposing transit fees and limiting traffic, will likely keep shippers cautious.

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Likely To Remain Disrupted, Despite Ceasefire

Media

Podcasts

How have dynamics evolved since France and the United States withdrew from the region? 

The Decision Advantage: Jihadist Insurgency in the Sahel and West Africa

Mexico

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Taiwan

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Iranians hold national flags as they gather in Tehran's Revolution Square after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, on April 8, 2026 in Tehran, Iran.

Upcoming negotiations face substantial hurdles as both sides present maximalist demands that could precipitate a return to high-intensity conflict.


Despite 11th-Hour U.S.-Iran Truce, Stumbling Blocks to Lasting Agreement Remain

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Ukraine

A soldier from the "Taifun" unmanned aerial vehicle unit prepares a new strike drone for flight on April 7, 2026 in Ukraine. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Although Moscow is threatening retaliation against Baltic states over supposed involvement in Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, the Kremlin will not risk a direct military confrontation with NATO.


Direct NATO-Russia Confrontation in the Baltic Unlikely, Despite Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure 

Japan

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi answers questions at a legislative budget committee session in Tokyo on April 7, 2026, while Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (left) looks on. 

Japan's ability to sustain increased spending on defense and other strategic investments in the coming years will be constrained by sluggish economic growth, high government debt and a challenging geopolitical landscape.

Reviewing Japan's New Budget: Balancing Spending Hikes and Fiscal Reality

Military & Security

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Cuba: Sources Report Pentagon Planning Military Operation in Cuba

U.S., Lebanon, Israel: Trump Announces 10-Day Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

Australia: Canberra To Increase Defense Spending to 3% of GDP by 2033

U.S., Iran: Breakthrough on Strait of Hormuz Is Possible, but Comprehensive Deal Remains Distant

Somalia: Dispute Over Duration of Presidential, Parliamentary Terms Portends Constitutional Crisis

Ethiopia: Tigray Chief Administrator Says He Will Not Step Down Amid TPLF Pressure

Russia, Azerbaijan: Moscow and Baku Settle 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines Crash Dispute

Indonesia, France: Paris Visit Advances Defense Buildout as Jakarta Broadens Strategic Options

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