<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

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India

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The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

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South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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Taliban security personnel inspect a car damaged by Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan's eastern Paktika province on Dec. 26, 2024. 

Military & Security

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While the TTP may not completely follow through on its recent threats, its attacks in Pakistan are set to escalate.

Afghanistan and Pakistan's Deadlock Portends Worsened TTP Attacks

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

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Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025. 

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

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On Geopolitics

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Demonstrators on Sept. 5 mark a month since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka. The emphasis on extensive reforms by the interim government of Bangladesh will likely delay elections, intensifying unrest and destabilizing the country even more.

The emphasis on extensive reforms by the interim government of Bangladesh will likely delay elections, intensifying unrest and destabilizing the country even more. 

A Likely Delay to Bangladesh Elections Will Intensify Unrest

The Geopolitics of Water

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Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags. Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

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When can we expect elections in Bangladesh following Sheikh Hasina's resignation?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Bangladeshi Politics

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Economic coercion is becoming more prevalent in international politics, with certain countries leveraging their economic power to pursue political goals. 

Economic Power in International Politics

Democratic Republic of the Congo

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U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House. Biden on Dec. 2-4 will visit Angola, where he will focus on the Lobito Corridor project that aims to refurbish and expand railways connecting critical mineral-rich regions in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo with the Angolan port of Lobito.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Angola, von der Leyen's Second Term

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the Z-Morh tunnel in northeastern Kashmir, ensuring year-round access to the resort town of Sonamarg, which was previously cut off from the rest of the region during winter due to heavy snowfall, AP reported on Jan. 13.

India: Modi Inaugurates Strategic Tunnel in Kashmir

Earth's average surface temperature in 2024 was 1.60 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Service confirmed on Jan. 10. 

Global: Average Surface Temperatures Breached 1.5-Degree Threshold in 2024

Afghanistan's foreign ministry called India a "significant regional and economic partner" after Afghanistan's acting foreign minister met with India's foreign secretary in Dubai on Jan. 8 in the highest-level talks the two sides have held since the Afghan Taliban retook Afghanistan in August 2021, Reuters reported on Jan. 9. 

India, Afghanistan: Afghan Taliban Calls India 'Significant Partner' After High-Level Meeting

Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan instructed his opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party's negotiation team to continue engaging with the government, Geo News reported on Jan. 8. 

Pakistan: Opposition Leader Khan Orders PTI To Proceed With Government Talks

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif announced that the United Arab Emirates agreed to extend a $2 billion payment deadline that was due in January, Reuters reported on Jan. 7.

Pakistan: UAE To Extend $2B Payment Deadline for Pakistan

The spokesperson for India's Ministry of External Affairs said it had lodged a "solemn protest" with China through diplomatic channels over the latter's establishment of two new counties in its claimed northwest territory of Hotan prefecture, as parts of the two counties are in India's claimed northern union territory of Ladakh, Hindustan Times reported on Jan. 3. 

India, China: India Lodges Protest With China Over New Counties in Disputed Territory

A court in Bangladesh's southeastern city of Chittagong again denied bail for prominent Hindu leader Krishna Das Prabhu, who is facing sedition charges for leading rallies and allegedly disrespecting the Bangladeshi flag, AP reported on Jan. 2.

Bangladesh: Chittagong Court Again Rejects Bail for Prominent Hindu Leader

The head of the Afghan Taliban's political office in Qatar said the group does not intend to escalate after border clashes erupted with Pakistani forces following Pakistan's Dec. 24 airstrikes on alleged Afghanistan-based militants, but that further Pakistani "escalation" would prompt the Afghan Taliban to undertake "measured retaliation," Bloomberg reported on Dec. 31.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Afghan Taliban Official Says Group Seeks De-Escalation After Retaliating Against Pakistani Strikes

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Modi Inaugurates Strategic Tunnel in Kashmir

Global: Average Surface Temperatures Breached 1.5-Degree Threshold in 2024

India, Afghanistan: Afghan Taliban Calls India 'Significant Partner' After High-Level Meeting

Pakistan: Opposition Leader Khan Orders PTI To Proceed With Government Talks

Pakistan: UAE To Extend $2B Payment Deadline for Pakistan

India, China: India Lodges Protest With China Over New Counties in Disputed Territory

Bangladesh: Chittagong Court Again Rejects Bail for Prominent Hindu Leader

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Afghan Taliban Official Says Group Seeks De-Escalation After Retaliating Against Pakistani Strikes

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