<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

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India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Economics

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Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Snapshots

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Canada

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

Global Trade

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Assessments

Afghan men gather in support of the Taliban government during a rally in Khost, Afghanistan, on Oct. 13, 2025, amid heavy cross-border clashes with Pakistan.

Further violence is likely in the coming weeks and potentially longer, as the two countries' entrenched disputes regarding their shared border and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan will challenge international peace efforts.

Deadly Border Clashes Sharply Escalate Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions

On Geopolitics

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

A department store on Sept. 5, 2025, in Mumbai, after the Indian government slashed GST rates. While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

India's GST Reforms Will Weigh on State Finances 

Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption. 

Despite the prime minister's resignation and the lifting of a controversial social media ban, risks of violent unrest will likely persist as long-standing political instability deepens.

Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation

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Participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 pose for photos in Tianjin, China, on Sept. 1, 2025.

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U.S. trade uncertainty will help China deepen trade ties with its Central Asian neighbors and infrastructure ties with Russia, but its relations with India will remain inhibited by border disputes and differing defense priorities.

China Positions Itself as Growth Catalyst for Central Asia at SCO Summit

United States

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and his Indian counterpart, Rajnath Singh, signed a renewed 10-year ''Framework for the U.S.-India Major Defense Partnership,'' with Hegseth calling the partnership ''one of the most consequential'' in the world, Bloomberg reported Oct. 31.

U.S., India: Countries Renew 10-year Defense Partnership

Afghan and Pakistani delegations met in Istanbul for a third day of talks on Oct. 27 in pursuit of a more sustained cessation of hostilities, Reuters reported on Oct. 27. 

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Pakistani Military Repels Cross-Border Militants Amid Ceasefire Talks

Pakistan's government proscribed hardline Islamist party Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, or TLP, under the country's Anti-Terrorism Act, 1997, weeks after the party's members clashed with police during pro-Palestinian protests in Punjab province that killed five people and injured dozens of others, Dawn reported on Oct. 24. 

Pakistan: Government Proscribes Hardline Islamist Party Under Anti-Terrorism Act

Following Afghanistan and Pakistan's most intense clashes in years, the two sides agreed to a more permanent ceasefire during talks in Doha mediated by Turkey and Qatar, Reuters reported on Oct. 19.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Kabul, Islamabad Agree to More Permanent Ceasefire Following Doha Talks

Representatives from 25 political parties and alliances in Bangladesh, including major groups such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, signed the July National Charter 2025 -- named after the national uprisings of July 2024 -- which lays out a roadmap for constitutional amendments, legal reforms and the introduction of new legislation, The Business Standard reported on Oct. 17. 

Bangladesh: Interim Government and Political Parties Sign Political Charter

On Oct. 16, U.S. President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would halt oil purchases from Russia, The Economic Times reported on Oct. 17.

India: Trump Claims Modi Assured Him India Would Stop Purchasing Russian Oil

Pakistan's foreign ministry announced it had agreed to a 48-hour ceasefire with the Afghan Taliban starting at 6 p.m. Pakistan standard time, hours after clashes resurged following days of relative calm, Reuters reported on Oct. 15.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Fresh Clashes Erupt and Last Hours Before Islamabad, Kabul Agree to 48-Hour Ceasefire

The International Monetary Fund announced that it reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan, paving the way for the release of $1.2 billion upon executive board approval, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 15. 

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement on $1.2B Disbursement

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., India: Countries Renew 10-year Defense Partnership

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Pakistani Military Repels Cross-Border Militants Amid Ceasefire Talks

Pakistan: Government Proscribes Hardline Islamist Party Under Anti-Terrorism Act

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Kabul, Islamabad Agree to More Permanent Ceasefire Following Doha Talks

Bangladesh: Interim Government and Political Parties Sign Political Charter

India: Trump Claims Modi Assured Him India Would Stop Purchasing Russian Oil

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Fresh Clashes Erupt and Last Hours Before Islamabad, Kabul Agree to 48-Hour Ceasefire

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement on $1.2B Disbursement

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