<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

Banking

Crossing Borders

Globalization

Social Issues

The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

An Indian paramilitary trooper patrols a market area in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, in India-held Kashmir, on April 29, 2025. 

Military & Security

India will likely soon launch limited military strikes against Pakistan in retaliation for the deadly April 22 Kashmir attack, raising the risk of escalation despite both sides' desire to avoid a full-scale war.

The Drivers and Constraints to a Wider India-Pakistan Conflict

Canada

United States

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Europe

Italy

Ukraine

Indian soldiers stand guard atop their vehicle in Srinagar, India, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Escalating Pakistan-India Tensions, Canadian Elections and Pope Francis' Funeral

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

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Economics

Will India be able to stay on track for its growth goals?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India's Economy

An Indian paramilitary serviceman keeps watch in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. 

India and Pakistan's exchange of tit-for-tat diplomatic and economic moves is raising the risk of a military escalation, while also fueling domestic unrest due to rising nationalist sentiment in both countries.

India-Pakistan Tensions Surge Following Deadly Kashmir Attack

A protest on Jan. 8 in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka.

If Bangladesh's interim government does hold a vote due to the lack of progress on electoral reforms, the risk of instability, economic difficulties and public discontent will rise, potentially leading to military intervention. 

How Bangladeshi Stability Depends Upon a Prompt Election 

A general view shows Sri Lanka's Colombo port on April 9, 2025.

Global Trade

Textile exports from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan will suffer under new U.S. tariffs, worsening economic hardships and risking political instability.

South Asia's Textile Industry Reels From U.S. Tariffs

Pedestrians walk past a broadcast screen of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in Mumbai on April 3, 2025, airing news of U.S. President Donald Trump unveiling sweeping new trade tariffs. 

If implemented, Trump's threatened 27% tariff would severely hurt certain Indian sectors (e.g., pharmaceuticals), though other sectors (e.g., textiles) could benefit if India's main competitors end up facing even higher tariffs.

For India, High U.S. Tariffs Offer a Mixed Bag

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Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Intensifying trade wars, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, continued volatility in the Middle East and consequential elections in key countries will shape the quarter.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Global Elections

U.S.-China Relations

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India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) walks with New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (R) before their meeting at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on March 17, 2025. 

U.S. tariff threats are pushing India to revamp negotiations over free trade agreements, but protectionist trade policies and other obstacles will challenge the progression of talks.

India Dusts Off Old FTA Negotiations Ahead of U.S. Tariffs

Saudi Arabia

South Korea

Canadian flags are seen outside a building in Ottawa. 

The Weekly Rundown: Canada's Ruling Liberals Pick a New Leader, India and the EU Hold Trade Talks 

Following three years of intermittent negotiations, the United Kingdom and India finalized a free trade agreement that aims to boost bilateral trade by an additional $34 billion by 2040 through expanded market access and reduced trade barriers, Reuters reported on May 6.

India, U.K.: Governments Finalize Free Trade Agreement

India reportedly initiated efforts to enhance the reservoir storage capacity at two hydroelectric projects in the Himalayan region of Kashmir, Reuters reported on May 5. 

India, Pakistan: India Launches Hydro Project Development in Kashmir

On April 30, Pakistan stated it had "credible intelligence" that suggested India was planning to conduct military action against the country within the next 24 to 36 hours, Reuters reported on the same day.

Pakistan: Country Claims Indian Military Action Is Imminent, Citing 'Credible Intelligence'

On April 26, Pakistani authorities reported that India released water from the Uri Dam in India-administered Kashmir without prior notice, causing water levels in the Jhelum River to rise by 22,000 cubic feet per second and prompting a partial flood warning in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, ARY News reported on April 27.

Pakistan, India: India Releases Floodwater, Pakistan Calls for Neutral Probe Into Kashmir Attack

The Indian and Pakistani armies exchanged fire across the Line of Control, which divides the disputed Kashmir region between India and Pakistan, with the Indian side alleging that Pakistan initiated the shooting, though there were no casualties and the exact location of the clash remains unclear, AP reported on April 25.

Pakistan, India: Troops Exchange Gunfire in Kashmir

India announced the suspension of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty and ordered Pakistani nationals within its territory to leave the country by April 27, following the April 22 attack by The Resistance Front that killed at least 26 people in the locality of Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir province, The Times of India reported on April 24.

India, Pakistan: Tensions Rise as Pakistan, India Downgrade Relations, Threaten Escalation

Police updated the casualty figures of the April 22 suspected militant attack at Baisaran meadow near the Kashmiri resort town of Pahalgam, raising the death toll to at least 26, with another 17 people wounded, making it one of the worst attacks on civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, Reuters reported on April 23.

India: Kashmir Attack's Death Toll Rises, Pakistan-Linked Group Claims Responsibility

U.S. Vice President JD Vance began a four-day visit to India on April 21 and is scheduled talk with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Reuters reported the same day. 

India: U.S. Vice President Vance Arrives in India

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

India, U.K.: Governments Finalize Free Trade Agreement

India, Pakistan: India Launches Hydro Project Development in Kashmir

Pakistan: Country Claims Indian Military Action Is Imminent, Citing 'Credible Intelligence'

Pakistan, India: India Releases Floodwater, Pakistan Calls for Neutral Probe Into Kashmir Attack

Pakistan, India: Troops Exchange Gunfire in Kashmir

India, Pakistan: Tensions Rise as Pakistan, India Downgrade Relations, Threaten Escalation

India: Kashmir Attack's Death Toll Rises, Pakistan-Linked Group Claims Responsibility

India: U.S. Vice President Vance Arrives in India

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