<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

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The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

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The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

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India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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The Geopolitics of Demographics

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Geopolitics of Demographics

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Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

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Iran

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A freight train carrying cargo containers rides along a railway track in Ajmer, India, on Aug. 26, 2025.

Global Trade

New Delhi's decisions to permit specific imports and fast-track minority investments highlight its strategy of addressing critical manufacturing shortages, though relations are unlikely to extend beyond low-level confidence-building measures.

India Cautiously Opens up to Chinese Investment

Rastriya Swatantra Party leader Balendra Shah is sworn in as Nepal's new prime minister in Kathmandu on March 27, 2026.

Prolonged global supply chain disruptions and threats to foreign remittances linked to the war will constrain the new administration's ability to deliver on its economic promises.


New Nepalese Government's Agenda Threatened by Iran War Fallout

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

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As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

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The second quarter will test global resilience as lingering conflicts and energy shocks converge to heighten economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

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A medicine distributor stores Mounjaro (tirzepatide) self-injecting GLP-1 prefilled pens and vials in a fridge at his office in Thane, India, on March 20, 2026. 

India's pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors are set to grow significantly over the next several years amid manufacturing incentives, regulatory reforms and trade deals.

The Growth Outlook for India's Pharmaceutical Sector Remains Strong, Despite Global Uncertainties

While far from deterministic, demographics plays a key role in influencing a country's domestic and international politics, as well as its economic and financial development.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: Politics and Economics

A farmer sprinkles fertilizer over a crop of cauliflower on the outskirts of Bangalore, India, in November 2020.

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is straining global supplies of nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers, which could lead to lower crop yields, higher food prices and fiscal strain for agricultural producers if the disruptions persist.

Assessing the Iran War's Impact on Global Fertilizer Supplies

Demographics may not be destiny, but it does play a major role in questions of national power.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: An Introduction

A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.

Despite having a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will likely only provide the kingdom with low-level defensive and technical support, rather than direct military intervention against Iran, due to various constraints.

In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits 

The International Monetary Fund reached a staff-level agreement with Sri Lanka, paving the way to unlock approximately $700 million in financing and bringing total disbursements under the program to about $2.4 billion, Reuters reported on April 9. 

Sri Lanka: Government Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With IMF

China's foreign affairs spokesperson confirmed Afghanistan and Pakistan had met from April 1-7 in northern China, where they agreed to "refrain from actions that may escalate or complicate" their conflict and "discuss a comprehensive plan" to resolve bilateral issues, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported on April 8.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Negotiators To Discuss 'Comprehensive Plan' To Resolve Bilateral Issues

New Zealand

India and New Zealand are reportedly set to sign a free trade agreement on April 24 to boost trade and investment, The Economic Times reported on April 7.

India, New Zealand: Governments Set To Sign FTA on April 24

Russia

On April 6, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production quotas for the month of May by 206,000 barrels per day, effectively agreeing to increase production once oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels.

Global: OPEC+ Agrees to Symbolic Production Hike as It Warns About Damage to Assets

Afghan and Pakistani officials met in northern China to negotiate a ceasefire to more durably end Afghanistan and Pakistan's weeks-long cross-border clashes, AP reported on April 1, citing two unnamed Pakistani officials.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Delegations Meet in Northern China To Negotiate Potential Ceasefire

On March 27, the International Monetary Fund announced that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan, a development expected to release $1.2 billion from a $7 billion bailout package.

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement To Release $1.2B in Funding

Egypt

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Pakistan hosted talks with various regional actors, including Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as part of its efforts to broker a diplomatic settlement that ends the U.S. and Israel-Iran war, Reuters reported on March 29.

Middle East: Tit for Tat Attacks Escalate to Industrial Zones, Despite Regional Efforts To De-escalate

World Trade Organization negotiators failed to extend their nearly 30-year-old ban on digital trade tariffs at the body's 14th ministerial conference in Cameroon, Bloomberg reported on March 30.

Global: WTO Negotiators Fail To Extend Digital Tariff Ban

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

Sri Lanka: Government Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With IMF

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Negotiators To Discuss 'Comprehensive Plan' To Resolve Bilateral Issues

India, New Zealand: Governments Set To Sign FTA on April 24

Global: OPEC+ Agrees to Symbolic Production Hike as It Warns About Damage to Assets

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Delegations Meet in Northern China To Negotiate Potential Ceasefire

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement To Release $1.2B in Funding

Middle East: Tit for Tat Attacks Escalate to Industrial Zones, Despite Regional Efforts To De-escalate

Global: WTO Negotiators Fail To Extend Digital Tariff Ban

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