<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

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India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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The second quarter will test global resilience as lingering conflicts and energy shocks converge to heighten economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

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A medicine distributor stores Mounjaro (tirzepatide) self-injecting GLP-1 prefilled pens and vials in a fridge at his office in Thane, India, on March 20, 2026. 

India's pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors are set to grow significantly over the next several years amid manufacturing incentives, regulatory reforms and trade deals.

The Growth Outlook for India's Pharmaceutical Sector Remains Strong, Despite Global Uncertainties

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Geopolitics of Demographics

While far from deterministic, demographics plays a key role in influencing a country's domestic and international politics, as well as its economic and financial development.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: Politics and Economics

A farmer sprinkles fertilizer over a crop of cauliflower on the outskirts of Bangalore, India, in November 2020.

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is straining global supplies of nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers, which could lead to lower crop yields, higher food prices and fiscal strain for agricultural producers if the disruptions persist.

Assessing the Iran War's Impact on Global Fertilizer Supplies

Demographics may not be destiny, but it does play a major role in questions of national power.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: An Introduction

A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.

Despite having a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will likely only provide the kingdom with low-level defensive and technical support, rather than direct military intervention against Iran, due to various constraints.

In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits 

Canada

Australia

Japan

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walks with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, Australia, on March 5, 2026. 

Canada's push to deepen economic and security ties with India, Australia and Japan faces constraints and may inadvertently strengthen the U.S.-led regional structure Ottawa is trying to hedge against.

The Promise and Limitations of Canada's Push to Diversify Strategic Partnerships

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Feb. 3 in Washington.

India will likely delay finalizing its trade deal with the United States while seeking opportunities to expand its Russian oil imports, creating a risk of U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs against it.

The State of the Indian-U.S. Trade Deal After IEEPA Tariffs

China

Germany

The Tehran skyline on Dec. 30, 2025. On March 2, U.S. and Iranian negotiators will meet in Vienna, Austria, to begin technical talks on a nuclear deal.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Conflict in the Middle East, Merz meets Trump 

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

On March 27, the International Monetary Fund announced that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan, a development expected to release $1.2 billion from a $7 billion bailout package.

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement To Release $1.2B in Funding

Egypt

Israel

Turkey

Pakistan hosted talks with various regional actors, including Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as part of its efforts to broker a diplomatic settlement that ends the U.S. and Israel-Iran war, Reuters reported on March 29.

Middle East: Tit for Tat Attacks Escalate to Industrial Zones, Despite Regional Efforts To De-escalate

World Trade Organization negotiators failed to extend their nearly 30-year-old ban on digital trade tariffs at the body's 14th ministerial conference in Cameroon, Bloomberg reported on March 30.

Global: WTO Negotiators Fail To Extend Digital Tariff Ban

CSCL Arctic Ocean and CSCL Indian Ocean -- two container vessels linked to China's state-owned shopping giant COSCO -- successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first time COSCO-linked ships have transited the strait since the U.S. and Israel-Iran war began on Feb. 28, The National reported on March 30.

Iran: Chinese Container Ships Transit the Strait of Hormuz in Second Attempt

A local official in the eastern Afghan province of Kunar said Pakistan's military had shelled parts of the province after the expiration overnight March 23 of Pakistan's pause on military operations surrounding the Eid al-Fitr holiday, AP reported on March 25.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Reports Conflict on Renewed Violence Following Ceasefire's Expiration

The Afghan Taliban released Dennis Coyle, a U.S. academic the group had detained since January 2025 for unspecified reasons, The New York Times reported on March 24. 

Afghanistan, U.S.: Afghan Taliban Releases Detained U.S. National Amid U.S. Pressure

Several unnamed Israeli officials have indicated that a potential agreement between the United States and Iran is unlikely, although Pakistan offered to host negotiations as early as late in the week of March 23 to de-escalate the conflict, Reuters reported on March 24. 

U.S., Iran: Israeli Officials Say U.S.-Iran Deal Remains Unlikely, but Pakistan Offers To Host Talks

Qatar

Pakistan's information minister announced on March 18 a pause on strikes in Afghanistan beginning midnight the same day and extending through midnight on March 23, AP reported on March 18.

Pakistan, Afghanistan: Islamabad Announces Days-Long Pause on Strikes Following Foreign Pressure

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement To Release $1.2B in Funding

Middle East: Tit for Tat Attacks Escalate to Industrial Zones, Despite Regional Efforts To De-escalate

Global: WTO Negotiators Fail To Extend Digital Tariff Ban

Iran: Chinese Container Ships Transit the Strait of Hormuz in Second Attempt

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Reports Conflict on Renewed Violence Following Ceasefire's Expiration

Afghanistan, U.S.: Afghan Taliban Releases Detained U.S. National Amid U.S. Pressure

U.S., Iran: Israeli Officials Say U.S.-Iran Deal Remains Unlikely, but Pakistan Offers To Host Talks

Pakistan, Afghanistan: Islamabad Announces Days-Long Pause on Strikes Following Foreign Pressure

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