<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

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Maldives

Nepal

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The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

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The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

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U.S.-Iran Relations

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

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On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

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Yemen

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

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Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Oman

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.

New trade pacts offer gains in market access and investment but India's protectionist stance on agriculture and dairy remains an obstacle to deals with the United States and European Union. 


Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships

Mozambique

Republic of the Congo

Somalia

A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.

The Islamic State's main threat to the West in 2026 will remain its ability to inspire lone-actor violence, though in the coming years the group's African, Afghan and Syrian branches may become increasingly capable of directing mass casualty attacks in Western countries.

The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West

A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.

While Putin's Dec. 4-5 visit may yield some progress in defense, energy and trade cooperation, India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and continues diversifying its arms suppliers.

What To Expect as Putin Visits India

Honduras

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their bilateral meeting during the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin-Modi Meeting, Honduras General Election

Employees work at a garment factory in Tiruppur, in India's southern state of Tamil Nadu, on Sept. 23, 2025.

While the reforms will eventually create a more competitive, transparent and predictable labor market, the potential for uneven state-level adoption and protests will create challenges for companies in the near term. 

India's Labor Code Reforms: Opportunities and Implementation Challenges

At a Jan. 13 press conference in New Delhi, India's Army Chief Upendra Dwivedi said India and China were "trying to increase trust" between their militaries, including through meetings between their prime ministers, defense ministers and foreign ministers, and he added both sides felt an urgency to maintain calm along their disputed border, Bloomberg reported the same day.

India, China: India's Army Chief Reaffirms Ties With Beijing Gradually Improving

Iraq

United Arab Emirates

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Jan. 13 Truth Social post that any country "doing business" with Iran would face a 25% tariff when doing "any and all business" with the United States.

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

Germany

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in India's western state of Gujarat, where the two leaders sought to deepen economic and security cooperation and signed agreements covering sectors ranging from critical minerals to traditional medicine, AP reported on Jan. 12.

India, Germany: Agreements Strengthen Economic and Security Cooperation

China and Pakistan released a joint statement on Jan. 5 reaffirming their relations as "All-weather Strategic Cooperative Partners," with Beijing praising "the comprehensive measures" Pakistan has taken to counter terrorism and protect Chinese interests.

Pakistan, China: Beijing, Islamabad Reaffirm Ties at Early Meeting

Bangladesh's National Citizen Party, or NCP, a student-led group formed from the protest movement that ousted then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has forged an electoral alliance with the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami ahead of the February 2026 parliamentary elections, Reuters reported on Dec. 29.

Bangladesh: Student‑Led NCP Forms Electoral Alliance With Islamist Party Jamaat-e-Islami

A number of leaders within former Prime Minister Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, or PTI, have expressed frustration with Khan's refusal to negotiate with the government and his insistence that the party continue to protest and foment unrest amid its years-long standoff with authorities, Dawn reported on Dec. 26.

Pakistan: Khan's Enduring Influence, Focus on Protests Fueling Disagreements Among His Party's Leaders

India and New Zealand on Dec. 22 announced that they had reached a free trade agreement aimed at deepening economic ties, Bloomberg reported.

India, New Zealand: Free Trade Agreement Announced

During Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Oman, India signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement to strengthen bilateral trade and investment, Reuters reported on Dec. 18.

India, Oman: Governments Sign Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

India, China: India's Army Chief Reaffirms Ties With Beijing Gradually Improving

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

India, Germany: Agreements Strengthen Economic and Security Cooperation

Pakistan, China: Beijing, Islamabad Reaffirm Ties at Early Meeting

Bangladesh: Student‑Led NCP Forms Electoral Alliance With Islamist Party Jamaat-e-Islami

Pakistan: Khan's Enduring Influence, Focus on Protests Fueling Disagreements Among His Party's Leaders

India, New Zealand: Free Trade Agreement Announced

India, Oman: Governments Sign Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement

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