Assessments

Chile

United States

Venezuela

Israel

Saudi Arabia

Cambodia

Thailand

India

Pakistan

People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul (C) after chairing a National Security Council on Nov. 11 in Bangkok. An armed clash on the Thai-Cambodian border raises the risk of escalations that unwind the two countries' recent peace accord, though a return to full-scale war is less likely due to U.S. economic and security leverage.

While the most likely scenario is recurring but contained flare-ups through early 2026, a more escalatory scenario remains plausible.

More Clashes, but Not Full-blown Conflict, Likely on the Cambodian-Thai Frontier

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Nov. 12 at 10 Downing Street in central London. Growing internal divisions within the ruling Labour party over fiscal policy and declining popularity are increasing the likelihood of a leadership challenge against Starmer following the November budget or May 2026 local elections.

Growing internal divisions within the ruling Labour party over fiscal policy and declining popularity are increasing the likelihood of a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer following the November budget or May 2026 local elections.

Painful Upcoming Budget Likely To Amplify Starmer's Leadership Woes

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 13, 2025

Media

Podcasts

Why are Venezuela's relationships with Russia, Iran and China so important to the United States?

Essential Geopolitics: The Primary Drivers and Constraints of U.S.-Venezuela Tensions

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Energy

Global Trade

Israel is expected to soon launch another offensive against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, which will risk reigniting the civil war and exposing Gulf countries and Red Sea shipping to retaliatory attacks.

What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

A screen is seen during the International military anti drone exercise Baltic Trust 25 (BATT25) at the Selonia (Selija) military training ground near Viesite on Aug. 27, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The European Union is pushing to develop continent-wide anti-drone capabilities, but financial, political and legal fragmentation will significantly slow progress and leave the bloc's defense vulnerable.

Despite Political Enthusiasm, EU Drone Defenses Face Obstacles to Implementation

Firefighters douse a car at the suicide blast site in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

While unlikely to trigger immediate retaliation, recent explosions in both New Delhi and Islamabad will sustain the risk of renewed cross-border strikes should either country determine the other was culpable.

Back-to-Back Blasts in India and Pakistan Raise Fears of Another Escalation

Burundi

Kenya

Rwanda

Tanzania

Uganda

The Geopolitics of Trade

Economics

Kenya and Tanzania's infrastructure buildup will support East Africa's industrialization but will also depend on a range of other factors, including regional integration, shifts in the international trading system and technological changes.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 2

Chile's presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei (C) poses with her team after registering her candidacy at the Electoral Service of Chile in Santiago on Aug. 16, 2025.

Far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast is most likely to win, portending a shift toward pro-business policies and stricter security measures. But a leftist, center-right or ultra-right president could also be elected, each with different visions for Chile's future.

Chile's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

China

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

U.S. President Donald Trump (C), joined by lawmakers and members of his administration, delivers remarks during a dinner with leaders of Central Asian countries in the East Room of the White House on Nov. 6, 2025.

The recent C5+1 summit highlighted the U.S.'s desire to boost cooperation with Central Asian countries on trade and critical minerals, but the region's geography, governance and reliance on China and Russia will ultimately limit the impact of such efforts. 

The Promise and Limits of Increased U.S. Engagement in Central Asia

Latest

Sudan

Sudanese Armed Forces soldiers are seen on the now-disabled Shambat Bridge in Khartoum. 

While the likelihood of a humanitarian truce between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary RSF is rising, meaningful progress beyond a tentative permanent ceasefire currently appears unlikely.

Sudan Slips Toward De Facto Partition

Palestinian Territories

Excavation crews work amid rubble in Hamad City, west of Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The extended timeline for reconstruction ensures dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza will likely persist for years, fueling future radicalization and significant population displacement.

Gaza Reconstruction Likely To Take Years and Fuel Palestinian Emigration

A 3D logo of Vision 2030 from the obverse side of 200 Saudi Riyal banknote. Facing ballooning costs and questionable viability, Saudi Arabia is scaling back giga-projects like Neom, signaling a new market-driven discipline that nonetheless leaves the state as the primary economic driver.

Facing ballooning costs and questionable viability, Saudi Arabia is scaling back giga-projects like Neom, signaling a new market-driven discipline that nonetheless leaves the state as the primary economic driver.

The Mixed Record of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030

Pakistan's armed forces march in the country's National Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2024. 

Pakistan's new constitutional amendment threatens to sow political division over growing military powers, a weakening judiciary and reduced civilian oversight.

Pakistan's New Constitutional Amendment Reforms the Military and Judiciary

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

U.S.-China Relations

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Spain

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding. 

The end of a political pact between the ruling Socialists and Catalonia's Junts party will make it even harder for Prime Minister Sanchez to govern and pass laws, which could open the door to an early election.

Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support

Turkey

Cyprus

A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Attempts by Turkey to coerce Northern Cyprus economically could inadvertently strengthen President Tufan Erhurman's support and his drive for federalization with the internationally recognized south.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Bangladesh

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Japan

South Korea

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

Canada

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Madagascar

Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025. 

President Andry Rajoelina's removal on the back of widespread, youth-led protests will likely deescalate tensions in Madagascar in the next few weeks, but it could inspire similar protest movements elsewhere in Africa and potentially beyond.

Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar

Columns

On Security

Nigeria

South Africa

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Tunisia

Indonesia

Philippines

Serbia

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

On Geopolitics

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

The U.N. Security Council adopted a U.S.-backed resolution supporting the establishment of a "Board of Peace" helmed by U.S. President Donald Trump to transitionally govern the Gaza Strip through 2027, backing an international stabilization force to improve border security and demilitarize the Gaza Strip, and including a provision for a potential path toward a Palestinian state, Reuters reported on Nov. 17.

U.S., Israel, Palestinian Territories: UNSC Adopts Resolution Backing Trump's Gaza Plan

Democratic Republic of the Congo

The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group signed a framework agreement for a peace deal on Nov. 15 in Qatar, Reuters reported the same day. 

Congo: Clashes Between Army and M23 Continue Despite Framework Agreement for Peace Deal 

Azerbaijan

At a summit in Tashkent, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev formally proposed creating a new regional organization called the "Community of Central Asia," Reuters reported on Nov. 16. 

Central Asia, Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan Joins Central Asian Push for Formal Bloc To Counter Russian Influence

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would support proposed Senate legislation that would grant him the authority to impose tariffs on countries conducting business with Russia, particularly energy importers like China and India, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 17. 

U.S., Russia: Trump Endorses Sanctions Bill Targeting Russia's Trading Partners

Switzerland

Kazakhstan filed a lawsuit in Switzerland seeking about $15 million from several companies and individuals accused of corruption in oil field developments operated by Eni subsidiaries, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 17. 

Kazakhstan: Swiss Legal Action Seeks Leverage in Oil Arbitration Battles

The International Crimes Tribunal in Dhaka sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death in absentia for ordering lethal force against anti-government protesters in the summer of 2024, AP reported on Nov. 17.

Bangladesh: Special Tribunal Sentences Former Prime Minister to Death for Crackdown on 2024 Protests

U.S. President Donald Trump spoke to Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul on Nov. 14 and, according to Thai government spokesperson Siripong Angkasakulkiat, told Anutin that he did not want to interfere in the Thailand-Cambodia border issue, with Siripong also noting that U.S.-Thailand trade talks would proceed despite Thailand's recent suspension of its ceasefire with Cambodia, Reuters reported on Nov. 15.

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok Says U.S. Trade Talks Still On, But Demands Cambodia Apology

China's Embassy in Japan on Nov. 14 warned citizens online not to travel to Japan, leading several major Chinese travel agencies to suspend Japan trips, according to Kyoto News on Nov. 17. 

China, Japan: Tourism Ban Likely To Stick as Takachi Avoids Apology

Science & Technology

Iraq

Syria

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Mexico

Thousands of people attended "Gen Z" demonstrations in Mexico, El Universal reported on Nov. 15.

Mexico: Disputed 'Gen Z' Protests Gather Thousands Countrywide, Escalate to Violence in Mexico City

Ecuadorians rejected in a referendum President Daniel Noboa's proposals to install foreign military bases in the country, limit public funding to political parties, reduce the number of legislators and start the process of drafting a new constitution, El Pais reported on Nov. 17. 

Sudan Slips Toward De Facto Partition

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Israel, Palestinian Territories: UNSC Adopts Resolution Backing Trump's Gaza Plan

Congo: Clashes Between Army and M23 Continue Despite Framework Agreement for Peace Deal

Central Asia, Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan Joins Central Asian Push for Formal Bloc To Counter Russian Influence

U.S., Russia: Trump Endorses Sanctions Bill Targeting Russia's Trading Partners

Kazakhstan: Swiss Legal Action Seeks Leverage in Oil Arbitration Battles

Bangladesh: Special Tribunal Sentences Former Prime Minister to Death for Crackdown on 2024 Protests

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok Says U.S. Trade Talks Still On, But Demands Cambodia Apology

China, Japan: Tourism Ban Likely To Stick as Takachi Avoids Apology

Mexico: Disputed 'Gen Z' Protests Gather Thousands Countrywide, Escalate to Violence in Mexico City

Ecuador: Referendum Defeat To Limit President's Crime-Fighting Options

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