Assessments

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

United States

Iran

Israel

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

Israeli air defense systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv early on June 18, 2025. 

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict Rages On, NATO Holds Annual Summit

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Sub-Saharan Africa

Italy

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks to media during the closing press conference of the G7 Summit in Fasano, Italy, on June 15, 2024. 

Energy

Italy is seeking to embed its Mattei Plan into EU policy to gain support for its immediate goals of energy security and migration control, but structural issues will likely limit Rome's long-term influence in Africa.

Italy Syncs Its Mattei Plan for Africa With EU Initiatives

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 19, 2025

Palestinian Territories

A group of armed Israeli soldiers stands in a narrow alley of the Old City of Hebron, West Bank, on May 31, 2025. 

While it will likely curb immediate terror threats, the crackdown will also fuel Palestinian grievances, increasing the risk of a larger uprising and internal Israeli government tensions.

To Thwart Militant Attacks, Israel Cracks Down on the West Bank

Mali

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Malian counterpart Abdoulaye Diop hold a joint press conference following their meeting in Moscow, Russia, on May 20, 2022. 

While Russian military support to Mali is set to persist, the Sahelian country's security environment will likely continue to deteriorate amid jihadist groups' strong momentum.

What's Next for Mali as Russia's Wagner Group Pulls Out? 

Media

Podcasts

What is the long-term outlook for the conflict?

Essential Geopolitics: How Will the Israel-Iran War End?

Columns

On Geopolitics

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

Canada

Australia

China

United Kingdom

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles and British Defense Secretary John Healey sit together for the AUKUS Defense Ministers Meeting at Old Royal Naval College on Sept. 26, 2024, in London, England.

Environment, Science & Technology

Despite growing U.S. skepticism, strong imperatives to counter China's maritime presence will likely lead Washington to see a revised version of the AUKUS defense pact through.

U.S. Review of AUKUS Pillar I Puts Pact on Shaky Ground

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

The impending full implementation of sweeping U.S. tariffs threatens to significantly disrupt export-driven ASEAN economies, which is driving countries to seek alternative trade partners.

The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification

Snapshots

Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025. Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025. 

The Israel-Iran conflict is set to evolve into a short war of attrition as Iran pits its degraded missile stocks against Israel's dwindling air defense systems.

Assessing the Trajectory of the Iran-Israel War

U.S.-Iran Relations

Japan

Germany

France

Rescue teams work at damaged buildings in Nobonyad Square following Israeli airstrikes on June 13, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

The Weekly Rundown: G7 Leaders' Summit, More Israeli Attacks on Iran

Latest

Netherlands

Spain

The entrance of the building where the 2025 NATO summit will be held is seen in The Hague, the Netherlands, on June 22, 2025.

The June 24-25 summit will likely yield a political agreement on higher defense spending and highlight Europe's move toward greater defense autonomy, though structural and financial limitations will make it hard to maintain this shift over time. 

Previewing the 2025 NATO Summit

Qatar

A photo taken on June 23, 2025, shows the remnants of an Iranian missile intercepted over Qatar. 

Absent further retaliation, Iran's June 23 attack offers a path to de-escalation, but there is still a chance, albeit slim, that additional U.S. strikes trigger a wider conflict.

With a Telegraphed Attack on a U.S. Base in Qatar, Iran Offers an Off-Ramp To Ease Tensions

A Northrop B-2 Spirit on July 4, 2020, near the White House in Washington. 

Even if carefully calibrated, Iranian retaliation of any form will risk inviting more U.S. strikes and greater escalation that could result in Iran following through on more of its significant threats against the regional oil and gas sector and/or the United States.

Iran's Retaliation Against the U.S. Will Likely Be Limited, but Will Still Risk Escalation

Smoke rises from a location allegedly targeted in Israel's wave of strikes June 13, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. Israel and Iran are increasingly likely to expand the scope of their attacks to include targets like each other's political leadership, energy infrastructure and other sensitive targets that would open the door to a wider regional war.

Israel and Iran are increasingly likely to expand the scope of their attacks to include targets like each other's political leadership, energy infrastructure and other sensitive targets that would open the door to a wider regional war.

Israel and Iran's Conflict Intensifies, Raising the Risk of a Regional War

A view of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Israel's massive strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites mark a sharp escalation likely to trigger sustained retaliation, regional instability and the collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.

Israel's massive strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites mark a sharp escalation likely to trigger sustained retaliation, regional instability and the collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.



What To Expect as Israel Goes After Iran's Nuclear Program, Military Capabilities

An Israeli Air Force F-16 fighter aircraft on March 24, 2025, over the city of Yokneam Illit in northern Israel.

Israeli launched a "preemptive" strike on Iran in the early hours of June 13, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced as he declared a special state of emergency inside Israel.

Israel Launches Major Military Strikes on Iran

Cargo shipping containers are seen stacked at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, California, on April 15, 2025. 

Regardless of any short-term concessions, the U.S. will likely eventually expand the scope of its technology restrictions against China, likely prompting Beijing to retaliate by once again restricting exports of rare earths or other critical raw materials.

U.S.-China Framework To Implement Trade Deal Will Only Temporarily Ease Tensions

U.S.-China Relations

A protester holds a sign reading "Pedro Sanchez, give us back the democracy" during a demonstration in Madrid against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's government on June 8, 2025.

Corruption scandals, opposition pressure and legislative gridlock are weakening the prime minister and his government, complicating planned reforms and defense spending hikes.

In Spain, Sanchez's Struggles Risk Rendering His Government Ineffective

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

Iraq

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

Indonesia is preparing regulations to enable uranium refinement and radioactive material processing, aiming to integrate nuclear power into its long-term energy strategy, the Jakarta Globe reported on June 23.

Indonesia: Jakarta Plans Pivot to Nuclear Energy Amid Discovery of Over 24,000 Tons of Uranium

South Korea

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba canceled his planned attendance at the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, after an accompanying meeting between the Indo-Pacific Four (Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand) was scrapped, The Asahi Shimbun reported on June 23.

Japan, South Korea, Australia: Leaders To Skip NATO Summit

China added two fentanyl precursor chemicals to its Class Two list, enabling stricter supervision of their export starting July 20 in what Chinese officials deemed "a contribution to global drug control," Bloomberg reported on June 23.

China, U.S.: Beijing Bans Two Fentanyl Precursors as Rare Earth Exports Dropped 80% in May

Uganda

Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Uganda's army chief and the son of President Yoweri Museveni, threatened to "hunt down" Wazalendo militias, which support the Democratic Republic of the Congo's government, in possible joint Ugandan-Congolese operations unless they surrender, Actualite.cd reported on June 22.

Uganda, Congo: Ugandan Army Chief Threatens To 'Hunt' Congolese Pro-Government Militias

Panama

Social Issues

Panamanian authorities suspended access to internet and mobile phone services in Bocas del Toro after President Jose Raul Mulino declared a state of emergency in the province following nearly two months of protests, Deutsche Welle reported June 21. 

Panama: State of Emergency on Protest-Ridden Province Unlikely to End Demonstrations in the Long Term 

Belgium

Canada and the European Union are expected to sign a security and defense partnership agreement on June 23 during a bilateral summit in Brussels between Prime Minister Mark Carney, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa, the summit agenda shows. 

EU, Canada: EU and Canada to Sign Security and Defense Cooperation Agreement

Oman

In a June 22 royal decree, Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al Said ratified a 5% income tax on residents in Oman earning over 42,000 rials ($109,000), Bloomberg reported the next day. 

Oman: Personal Income Tax Marks First in GCC

Science & Technology

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

The U.S. military struck Iranian nuclear facilities at Esfahan, Fordow and Natanz on June 22, Reuters reported.

Iran: U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Nuclear Sites, Including Heavily Fortified Fordow

India

Pakistan

According to a June 19 press release from the media wing of Pakistan's military, Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir and U.S. President Donald Trump's June 18 meeting focused on regional security, counterterrorism cooperation and expanding bilateral ties in trade, technology and energy.

Pakistan, U.S: Pakistan's Field Marshal Meets With Trump

Nigerien authorities announced that they would nationalize uranium mining company SOMAIR, a subsidiary of France's state-owned Orano that owns the country's only operating uranium mine, Reuters reported on June 20. 

Niger: Junta To Nationalize Subsidiary of France's Orano 

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

With a Telegraphed Attack on a U.S. Base in Qatar, Iran Offers an Off-Ramp To Ease Tensions

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Indonesia: Jakarta Plans Pivot to Nuclear Energy Amid Discovery of Over 24,000 Tons of Uranium

Japan, South Korea, Australia: Leaders To Skip NATO Summit

China, U.S.: Beijing Bans Two Fentanyl Precursors as Rare Earth Exports Dropped 80% in May

Uganda, Congo: Ugandan Army Chief Threatens To 'Hunt' Congolese Pro-Government Militias

Panama: State of Emergency on Protest-Ridden Province Unlikely to End Demonstrations in the Long Term

EU, Canada: EU and Canada to Sign Security and Defense Cooperation Agreement

Oman: Personal Income Tax Marks First in GCC

Iran: U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Nuclear Sites, Including Heavily Fortified Fordow

Pakistan, U.S: Pakistan's Field Marshal Meets With Trump

Niger: Junta To Nationalize Subsidiary of France's Orano

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