Assessments

Europe

France

Spain

Firefighters spray water along the edge of a forest during a wildfire in southwestern France on July 25, 2026. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Politics

While unlikely to be electorally decisive in either country, the crisis will heighten scrutiny of both governments' crisis management and elevate climate adaptation, emergency preparedness and civil protection as key national and EU policy priorities.

The Political and Security Impact of the Wildfires in France and Spain

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 30, 2026

Columns

On Security

China

This photo illustration shows the ChatGPT logo at an office in Washington, D.C., on March 15, 2023.

The autonomous targeting of Hugging Face by OpenAI's models highlights the urgent need for organizations to prepare for advanced cyberattacks orchestrated entirely by AI agents.

Beyond the Hype of Autonomous AI Breaches

Supporters of the far-right Vox party wave flags and shout slogans during a protest against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Madrid, on June 13, 2025.

Social Issues

Strict constitutional restrictions and EU institutional oversight would significantly constrain a future right-wing government's ability to implement sweeping institutional changes.

What the Far-Right Vox Entering Government Would Mean for Spain's Security and Society

Peru

Iran

Israel

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

A couple rides past Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles displayed at Azadi Square in Tehran on July 24.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Likely U.S. Escalation in Iran, Zelensky Travels to Washington

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Turkey

Demonstrators yell through a megaphone and hold a framed portrait of the ousted Republican People's Party (CHP) chairman, Ogur Ozel, during an opposition rally in Izmir, Turkey, on May 24, 2026. 

The split could reduce the opposition's competitiveness in the 2028 general elections and further embolden Erdogan to pursue another term via constitutional or electoral mechanisms.

Turkey's Main Opposition Party Splits, Casting Uncertainty Over Efforts to Oust Erdogan

Middle East and North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

Yemeni protesters take part in a demonstration held to send a message of defiance against the continued siege and any military escalation involving Saudi forces against Houthi-controlled northern Yemen on July 17. 

Economics

Energy

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Forced to bypass the disrupted Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's increased reliance on alternative routes leaves its critical oil shipments vulnerable to Houthi attacks.


Yemen's Houthis Threaten Saudi Oil Exports With Red Sea Blockade

Ukrainian servicemen maintain a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region on May 27 in Pokrovsk, Ukraine.

With grinding ground offensives yielding minimal gains at a severe human cost, Moscow is likely to escalate devastating aerial strikes designed to cripple critical infrastructure and force Kyiv into concessions.


What the Fall of Kostiantynivka Would Mean for the Ukraine War 

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 23, 2026

India

A giant Indian flag is displayed from the country's embassy in London on May 7, 2025.

While the agreement will support both countries' economic diversification efforts, U.K. regulatory standards and supply chain challenges will limit some gains for India.

What To Expect as the India-U.K. Trade Deal Enters Force

A decorative plate featuring an image of Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen behind a statue of late communist leader Mao Zedong at a souvenir store next to Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China, on Feb. 27, 2018. 

China will remain a geopolitical enigma to the West as Beijing turns inward to insulate the CCP from the influence of external powers, an exercise that history suggests will threaten national prosperity and regime stability.

The Modern Geopolitics of China

U.S.-China Relations

Latest

Damaged structures are seen at the site of a U.S.-Saudi strike against Iran-backed militias in Bartalla, northern Iraq, on July 29, 2026. 

As the conflict picks back up, Trump must decide whether to offer Iran major concessions, which would alienate hawkish Republicans at home, or escalate military operations at the risk of reigniting a broader regional war.

Trump Once Again Weighs His Options Against Iran

Iraq

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) speaks during a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi (2nd-L) in the Oval Office of the White House on July 14, 2026.

While the Iraqi prime minister's visit to the White House yielded some deals, implementation constraints will likely eventually lead to renewed U.S. economic pressure, further straining Baghdad's finances.

New U.S. Agreements Unlikely to Ease Iraq's Economic Woes

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro (center) and other leaders leave after a group photo session on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila on July 24, 2026.

The meetings in Manila produced talks but no immediate collective action on critical regional issues like the Iran war's energy shock, intensifying South China Sea tensions and the Myanmar civil war.

ASEAN Meetings Make Little Headway on Pressing Energy and Security Issues

Chile

Chilean lawmakers in Congress celebrate at the end of the voting session on the economic reform bill on July 21, 2026.

Chile is poised to soon enact one of its broadest economic reform packages in decades, which will likely boost investor confidence and regulatory certainty, but at the expense of rising fiscal pressures.

What To Expect as Chile Prepares to Enact Sweeping Economic Reform Bill

People gather for a second consecutive day of protests in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2026, following the controversial dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelensky's potentially imminent decision to dismiss the army chief under mounting public pressure would weaken his authority, while prolonged turmoil could further strain Ukraine's war effort.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

A large container ship is seen docked at a port. 

Though interim measures or narrower agreements are plausible, Vietnam's dependence on Chinese inputs will likely prevent a comprehensive agreement, potentially exposing it to stricter U.S. scrutiny and new tariffs.

Vietnam's Reliance on Chinese Imports Complicates U.S. Trade Talks

Armed Yemeni supporters of the Iran-backed Houthi movement brandish their weapons during a protest against U.S. strikes on Iran in Sanaa on July 10, 2026. 

The attacks do not necessarily signal an immediate return to a full-scale war between the Saudis and the Houthis or a reignition of Yemen's civil conflict, but the likelihood of more frequent flare-ups in both theaters is increasing.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis Exchange Airstrikes, Breaking Yearslong Unofficial Truce

On Geopolitics

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Lebanon

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

Science & Technology

Jordan

Overnight on July 28-29, Iran launched several ballistic missiles at U.S. military installations in Jordan, all of which were intercepted, after U.S. and Saudi aircraft jointly struck multiple logistics and weapons sites used by Iran-backed militias across eastern Iraq, Reuters reported the same day.

Iran, U.S.: Renewed Strikes End Two-Day Pause in Direct Fighting

Poland

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met in Lublin, Poland, and discussed anti-missile defense cooperation, Polish investment in Ukraine, support for Ukrainians living in Poland and the bilateral historical dialogue, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported on July 29, citing statements by both leaders.

Ukraine, Poland: Zelensky-Tusk Meeting Will Stabilize Ties but Not Resolve Rift

Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Constitutional Court of the Democratic Republic of the Congo validated a law establishing the framework for a potential referendum on constitutional reforms, removing a legal obstacle to President Felix Tshisekedi's administration pursuing changes to the country's constitutional framework, Jeune Afrique reported on July 28.

Congo: Constitutional Court Validates Referendum Law, Fueling Debate Over Term Limits

Uganda

Uganda's Nation Media Group, which owns the Daily Monitor, NTV Uganda, KFM and Dembe FM, resumed operations on July 28 after nearly a month-long shutdown ordered by army chief Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of President Yoweri Museveni, Reuters reported on July 28.

Uganda: Media Group Resumes Operations Following Government-Ordered Closure

Kenya

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party is demanding that Kenyan President William Ruto select his running mate from within ODM in exchange for supporting his reelection bid in August 2027, with ODM figures backing either Cooperatives Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya or Mining Secretary Ali Joho Hassan for the role, Nation reported July 29.

Kenya: ODM Pressing Ruto for Running Mate Position as DP Kindiki Faces Mounting Pressure

Papua New Guinea

Taiwan

A senior Taiwan foreign ministry official announced on July 29 that the state-owned CPC Corp had halted spot market purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Papua New Guinea, the Taipei Times reported. 

Taiwan, Papua New Guinea: Taipei Halts LNG Purchases Over Trade Office Row

A Thai soldier lost his left foot and suffered shrapnel wounds after stepping on an antipersonnel mine during a technical survey in Sa Kaeo province, marking the 13th time a Thai soldier has lost a limb to a landmine since the border conflict with Cambodia began in 2025, the Bangkok Post reported on July 29.

Thailand, Cambodia: Thai Army Responds Mildly to Latest Landmine Incident

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

Haiti

Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council announced that presidential and legislative elections scheduled for Aug. 30 would be delayed again, with a first round now scheduled for Dec. 13 and a runoff vote on Feb. 21, 2027, Reuters reported on July 27. 

Haiti: Haiti Announces Election Delay Amid Security Challenges

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met at the White House and discussed a U.S. license allowing Ukraine to produce Patriot interceptor missiles, other defense proposals and efforts to reinvigorate diplomacy, RBC-Ukraine reported on July 28, citing Zelensky's statement after the meeting.

Ukraine, U.S.: Defense Cooperation Gains Momentum as Trump, Zelensky Meet

Mexico

A new leaked recording of wiretapped phone calls involving Baja California Gov. Marina del Pilar Avila suggests she sought to provide security information for the U.S. government after having her tourism visa revoked, El Pais reported on July 27.

Mexico, U.S.: Leaked Audios Escalate Crisis Over Mexican Governor's Alleged Talks With the U.S.

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

Trump Once Again Weighs His Options Against Iran

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Iran, U.S.: Renewed Strikes End Two-Day Pause in Direct Fighting

Ukraine, Poland: Zelensky-Tusk Meeting Will Stabilize Ties but Not Resolve Rift

Congo: Constitutional Court Validates Referendum Law, Fueling Debate Over Term Limits

Uganda: Media Group Resumes Operations Following Government-Ordered Closure

Kenya: ODM Pressing Ruto for Running Mate Position as DP Kindiki Faces Mounting Pressure

Taiwan, Papua New Guinea: Taipei Halts LNG Purchases Over Trade Office Row

Thailand, Cambodia: Thai Army Responds Mildly to Latest Landmine Incident

Haiti: Haiti Announces Election Delay Amid Security Challenges

Ukraine, U.S.: Defense Cooperation Gains Momentum as Trump, Zelensky Meet

Mexico, U.S.: Leaked Audios Escalate Crisis Over Mexican Governor's Alleged Talks With the U.S.

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