Assessments

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Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 11, 2026

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iran

Israel

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

Brazil

A passerby walks past the Banco Master building in Sao Paulo on Jan. 22, 2026, after Brazil's central bank ordered its shutdown due to a major liquidity crunch and "serious violations" of financial regulations.

Brazil faces severe institutional friction and heightened market volatility as a widening investigation into massive financial fraud threatens to ensnare prominent politicians, justices and businesspeople.

Deepening Corruption Scandal Could Upend Brazilian Presidential Race

Ukraine

A Ukrainian flag flies in Riga, Latvia, on May 18, 2026.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Even a sustainable peace settlement would leave Kyiv grappling with a $600 billion reconstruction bill, demanding high levels of foreign direct investment and stringent governance reforms.

Ukraine's Defense Will Continue To Strain Government Finances

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Uganda

Red Cross volunteers wearing personal protective equipment lower the body of an Ebola victim into a casket at a health center in Ituri province, Democratic Republic of Congo, on June 8, 2026.

Environment, Science & Technology

The escalating outbreak will likely persist for several more months, likely disrupting regional supply chains, mining investments in Congo and potentially Uganda's start of oil production.

Ebola Makes Deadly Comeback in Congo

People pass by a building in Ramat Gan, Israel, that was destroyed by an Iranian ballistic missile on May 5, 2026. 

Recent direct strikes between Israel and Iran did not immediately collapse the regional truce, but recurrent tit-for-tat escalations would reduce the chance of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Iran-Israel Escalation Threatens Negotiations To End Iran War

Media

Podcasts

Will the United States continue to pay the "blood and treasure" tax to subsidize global energy security, or is the Hormuz war the catalyst for a fundamental retrenchment?

The Decision Advantage: What the Hormuz War Means for U.S. Grand Strategy

Peru

Lebanon

China

North Korea

Armenia

Russia

A banner depicting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on June 3 in Tehran. There will be an elevated risk of sporadic U.S.-Iran clashes over the next week, as no signs of a diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations on a memorandum of understanding have emerged.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Armenian Elections, Xi Goes to North Korea

Taiwan

How has U.S. grand strategy in the Pacific changed over time?

The Decision Advantage: Taiwan Arms Sales and the U.S.-China Trade War

U.S.-China Relations

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) gestures to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before a military parade in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3, 2025. 

North Korea's growing relations with Russia and potential reengagement with the U.S. appear to be driving China to pursue a rapprochement after years of diplomatic inaction.

Xi-Kim Summit Signals a Thaw in Long-Frozen Ties Between China and North Korea

Smoke rises following Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon as seen from a position across the border in the Upper Galilee in northern Israel on May 31, 2026.

Should Israel-Lebanon talks stall, the U.S. would be more likely to greenlight a broader campaign against Hezbollah, though it could also pressure Israel into a more comprehensive truce if Trump deems it necessary for an Iran deal.

U.S. Mediation Unlikely To Lead to Lasting Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

Latest

Middle East and North Africa

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago club on Dec. 29, 2025, in Palm Beach, Florida. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Declining public approval and notable primary losses for traditional pro-Israel lawmakers suggest that a future U.S. Congress will increasingly push for military assistance to be conditioned.

U.S.-Israeli Ties Likely To Continue Cooling as Public Opinion Sours

Europe

A digital illustration of Europe.

The EU's push to reduce its reliance on foreign technology suppliers risks angering both China and the U.S., while execution will be hindered by domestic industrial constraints and internal political divisions.

Key Takeaways From the EU's Tech Sovereignty Package

Turkey

The ousted chair of Turkey's opposition Republican People’s Party, Ozgur Ozel, addresses lawmakers during his party's group meeting in the Turkish parliament on June 2, 2026, in Ankara, Turkey. 

Turkey's main opposition party will struggle to gain traction amid legal battle and deepening internal divisions, freeing up the ruling party to consider returning to more unorthodox economic policies ahead of the 2028 election.

Turkey's Opposition Struggles To Stay United in the Face of Legal Strife

Iraq

Members of Saraya al-Salam gather during a ceremony in the city of Samarra on June 4, 2026, marking their separation from the Sadrist movement and their integration into the Iraqi security forces.

Several militant factions have recently expressed a desire to integrate into Iraq's government structures, but more hard-line groups are unlikely to follow suit without Iran's approval.

Iraq's Push To Disarm Iranian-Backed Militias Will Have Only Partial Success

Australia

Fiji

Japan

India

(From left to right) Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hold a joint press conference after their Quad meeting in New Delhi on May 26, 2026.

The meeting proved the grouping is still functional, but it faces strong constraints in turning ambitious coordination frameworks into functional maritime, infrastructure, critical minerals and energy initiatives that blunt Chinese regional influence.

Takeaways From Quad Summit: New Initiatives, Enduring Constraints and Future Uncertainty

Switzerland

Citizens vote by raising their hands during the Landsgemeinde, a traditional public, non-secret ballot conducted by majority rule, in Appenzell, eastern Switzerland, on April 26.

Global Trade

If approved, the cap on the permanent resident population would compel Swiss companies to accelerate capital investment and automation initiatives to offset reduced EU migration.


Swiss Population Referendum Threatens Growth and EU Relations

United Kingdom

Poland

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk attend a signing ceremony of a UK-Poland defence and security treaty at the Battle of Britain Bunker on May 27 in London, England.

Concerned about the reliability of the United States' security commitments, European nations are increasingly relying on bilateral defense agreements to secure their strategic interests and deter Russian aggression.


U.K. and Poland Hedge Against Transatlantic Uncertainty With Bilateral Treaty

Philippines

Police personnel arrive outside the Senate of the Philippines in Pasay, Metro Manila, on May 13, 2026.

Intensifying Marcos-Duterte tensions, fueled by the vice president's impeachment and the ICC's attempted arrest of a Duterte-aligned senator, are testing Philippine institutions and threatening policy gridlock before the 2028 presidential race.

The Escalating Marcos-Duterte Feud Threatens Philippine Institutions

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Pakistan

Pakistan presented the fiscal year 2026-27 budget, which proposes spending of 18.7 trillion rupees ($67 billion), Reuters reported on June 12.

Pakistan: Foreign Minister Presents Budget

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan's ruling Amanat party said it would merge into the newly registered Adilet party ahead of August parliamentary elections, Reuters reported on June 12. 

Kazakhstan: Nazarbayev-Era Party To Merge With Tokayev's New Vehicle

Nigeria

Nigeria's House of Representatives passed a constitutional amendment bill (HB 617) to establish state police amid persistent insecurity, Premium Times reported on June 11.

Nigeria: Government Moves Toward State Police as Constitutional Amendment Clears House

Cheng Li-wun, the chair of Taiwan's main opposition party, Kuomintang, met with six U.S. members of Congress on June 12 in Washington, D.C., including Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan, who urged Cheng to fund more U.S. arms purchases, and Montana Sen. Steve Daines, a close ally of President Donald Trump.

Taiwan, U.S.: U.S. Snubs Taiwanese Opposition Head, Boding Ill for Cross-Strait Talks

Bangladesh

Following four days of talks in New Delhi between Bangladeshi and Indian border officials, Border Guard Bangladesh and India's Border Security Force agreed to enhance intelligence sharing and joint patrols, Reuters reported on June 12.

Bangladesh, India: Border Officials Agree To Enhance Cooperation Amid Undocumented Migrant Row

The European Union's Migration and Asylum Pact entered into force on June 12, introducing mandatory registration and security screening of irregular arrivals, fast-track border procedures for applicants unlikely to qualify for protection, shorter asylum processing timelines and automatic return orders for rejected claims across all 27 member states, a European Commission press release shows.

EU: New Migration and Asylum Rules Enter Into Force

Argentina

Argentine President Javier Milei's Chief of Staff Manuel Adorni admitted to concealing at least $500,000 in earnings from tax authorities in a new filing, La Nacion reported on June 11. 

Argentina: Milei's Ally Admits Concealment of Earnings From Tax Authorities

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Director General of Ethiopia's National Intelligence and Security Service Redwan Hussein and former chief of Tigray's interim regional administration Getachew Reda accused the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, of planning to launch an offensive against pro-government forces with the support of Eritrea "in the coming days" in a June 11 op-ed published by Al Jazeera.

Ethiopia: Intelligence Chief, Former Tigray Administrator Accuse TPLF of Planning Offensive in 'Coming Days'

Kenya

Tanzania

Kenyan Finance Minister John Mbadi presented the country's 2026-27 budget, which foresees a fiscal deficit of 5.5% of GDP chiefly financed through domestic borrowing, expanded tax enforcement and a rise in levies and excise duties on certain products such as tobacco, The Africa Report reported on June 12. 

East Africa: Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania Present Budgets for New Fiscal Year

Science & Technology

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Guests stand outside a model carriage of the "Dream of the Desert" ultra-luxury train on display during the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Oct. 28, 2025.

Efforts to create new export routes via railways and pipelines will be hampered by regional mistrust, uncertain commercial viability and long construction timelines, ultimately keeping Gulf states reliant on the Strait of Hormuz.

All Roads Lead to Hormuz: The Limits of Gulf Infrastructure Diversification

Germany

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Indonesia

A top official with Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia, Indonesia's new state-owned entity created to oversee commodity exports, said the agency will review export prices and trade data but will not directly sell commodities, replace private exporters or take over existing contracts, Bloomberg reported on June 12.

Indonesia: Policy Backlash Compels Export Rule Clarification as Thousands Protest

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

U.S.-Israeli Ties Likely To Continue Cooling as Public Opinion Sours

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: Foreign Minister Presents Budget

Kazakhstan: Nazarbayev-Era Party To Merge With Tokayev's New Vehicle

Nigeria: Government Moves Toward State Police as Constitutional Amendment Clears House

Taiwan, U.S.: U.S. Snubs Taiwanese Opposition Head, Boding Ill for Cross-Strait Talks

Bangladesh, India: Border Officials Agree To Enhance Cooperation Amid Undocumented Migrant Row

EU: New Migration and Asylum Rules Enter Into Force

Argentina: Milei's Ally Admits Concealment of Earnings From Tax Authorities

Ethiopia: Intelligence Chief, Former Tigray Administrator Accuse TPLF of Planning Offensive in 'Coming Days'

East Africa: Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania Present Budgets for New Fiscal Year

Indonesia: Policy Backlash Compels Export Rule Clarification as Thousands Protest

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