Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 7, 2026

Brazil

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

If Flavio Bolsonaro wins in October, his right-wing administration would largely abandon Brazil's environmental and climate commitments, accelerate extractive investments and projects, and pursue strong geopolitical alignment with Washington.

The Balance Between Environmental and Extractive Policies in Brazil's Presidential Election, Part 2

Iran

Israel

United Arab Emirates

An Emirates Boeing 777 aircraft prepares for landing as a smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16.

Military & Security

A military response from the United States aiming to compel Iranian concessions without committing to ground operations could trigger a prolonged cycle of retaliatory attacks between U.S. allies and Iran.


Iran, U.S. Ceasefire at Elevated Risk of Collapse After Iran Attacks UAE

U.S.-Iran Relations

Energy

If President Lula wins reelection in October, his administration would continue balancing the promotion of green initiatives with the expansion of mining and drilling, while retaining strategic neutrality in the U.S.-China competition.

The Balance Between Environmental and Extractive Policies in Brazil's Presidential Election, Part 1

Snapshots

United Kingdom

While a Ukraine loan scheme will offer opportunities for British companies, it will not reintegrate the United Kingdom into EU defense structures.

A Small Step for EU-British Defense Cooperation

Media

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Podcasts

Why is the United States involved in the mediation process? 

The Decision Advantage: Key Drivers of the Congo-Rwanda Conflict

Australia

Japan

India

An oil products tanker at Muscat Anchorage on March 21, 2026 at Sultan Qaboos Port in Muscat, Oman. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.K. Elections, Iran War Resumption Risk

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

An oil tanker is seen docked in the southeastern Iranian coastal city of Chabahar, on the Gulf of Oman, in February 2019.

Chabahar is poised to transition from an ambitious commercial venture to a symbolic strategic asset, as India seeks to maintain long-term access and regional influence until sanctions conditions become clearer.

Expired U.S. Sanctions Waiver Threatens India's Chabahar Port Project in Iran

What are the key domestic pressures impacting U.S. strategy?

The Decision Advantage: The Outlook for U.S.-Iran Negotiations

Kazakhstan

Russia

An aerial view shows the Kazakh village of Ulken (foreground), where the country's first nuclear power plant is set to be built, on Sept. 22, 2024.

Kazakhstan will seek to balance its reliance on Russia to build its first nuclear plant by partnering with China on subsequent projects and by leveraging new mining laws to extract downstream technology from foreign partners.

Kazakhstan's Strategy to Control Its Nuclear Future Amid Russian Leverage

China

A Chinese vessel participates in oil exploration.

While China has so far fared well, persistent Strait of Hormuz disruptions would test its oil reserves and drive more defensive policies to secure growth, energy and export competitiveness.

Time Will Test China's Economic Resilience Against Iran War Shocks

Latest

Lebanon

People gather at the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs on May 6, 2026.

Israel's May 6 airstrike, which killed a top Hezbollah commander, will weaken the already tenuous April ceasefire and diminish prospects for U.S.-backed mediation, raising the risk of a return to a wider war.

Beirut Attack Further Dims Prospects for Lebanon-Israel Peace Talks

Algeria

Spain

Italy

A worker stands on the uploading dock of Cavaou LNG terminal in Fos-sur-Mer, France, on June 22, 2023, while the tanker boat "Lalla Fatma N'Soumer" arrives full of LNG ready to be delivered. 

Amid energy supply disruptions in the Middle East, Algeria's ability to capitalize on increased global prices and demand for energy exports will be constrained by limited spare capacity and bureaucratic obstacles.

Structural Constraints Will Limit Algeria's Ability To Capitalize on Tighter Energy Markets

Ukraine

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

Canada

Alberta separatists gather during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026.

A renewed independence push in Alberta is highly unlikely to succeed, but Ottawa will still likely have to confront stronger secessionist pressures in Quebec after elections later this year. 

What To Make of the Albertan Secessionist Movement in Canada

Saudi Arabia

The skyline of Dubai is seen on March 11, 2026.

The UAE's exit will enable it to boost production more quickly once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, while hindering OPEC's ability to manage the subsequent price drops.

The UAE's Exit From OPEC Further Diminishes the Oil Cartel's Relevance

Romania

Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan delivers a speech to lawmakers in parliament in Bucharest on June 23, 2025.

The crisis could undermine fiscal consolidation and further empower far-right forces, potentially reversing Romania's EU alignment and harming its economic credibility.

Romania's Latest Political Crisis Threatens Fiscal Reform and EU Alignment

Cuba

A general view of El Capitolio and the Havana skyline on December 16, 2014, in Havana, Cuba.

A recent unannounced U.S. diplomatic visit to Havana bodes well for a deal that reduces tensions, but Washington's ongoing demands for political and economic reforms will sustain the risk of a U.S. military and/or law enforcement operation.

U.S.-Cuba Talks Progress, but Threat of Military Action Still Looms

Egypt

The exterior facade of the new headquarters of Egypt's central bank is seen at the New Administrative Capital megaproject about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo, on Aug. 1, 2023. 

Egypt will try to avoid submitting to another IMF loan program, which would likely require unpopular austerity and privatization measures. But the escalating economic impact of the Iran war may eventually force its hand.

Iran War Fallout Could Force Egypt to Seek Another Unpopular IMF Bailout

Satellite imagery shows a broad view of the Strait of Hormuz between southern Iran and Oman's Musandam Peninsula on April 7, 2026.

Pledges to reopen the strait will support U.S.-Iran diplomatic momentum and reduce near-term escalation risks, but shipping activity will recover only gradually amid persistent tensions, with a continued risk of disruption until a durable agreement is reached.

The Operational vs. Diplomatic Impact of the Strait of Hormuz's Nominal Re-Opening

Columns

On Geopolitics

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Iraq

Libya

Turkey

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Colombia

Mexico

The White House announced on May 6 that U.S. President Donald Trump had signed the new United States Counterterrorism Strategy on May 5.

U.S.: President Trump Signs New Counterterrorism Strategy

On May 7, senior U.S. officials told a Fox News reporter that the United States had struck Iran's Qeshm island and Bandar Abbas, though they added that this was not a resumption of the war, and the strikes appear to be limited in scope.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Launches Military Strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas

Morocco

The Polisario Front claimed responsibility for a May 5 projectile attack in Smara, a city in the Moroccan-controlled part of Western Sahara, targeting areas near the city prison and cemetery and resulting in one injury, according to Moroccan authorities, Hespress reported on May 7.

Morocco, Western Sahara: Polisario Front Claims Responsibility for Smara Attack

Colombia's Constitutional Court unanimously struck down a tax on power generation companies and ordered the government to return the funds collected so far, El Pais reported on May 6. 

Colombia: Constitutional Court Overturns Tax Decree on Power Generators

Cyber

Science & Technology

European Parliament lawmakers reached a tentative agreement to water down the bloc's Artificial Intelligence Act in an effort to ease compliance requirements for businesses, Reuters reported on May 7.

EU: Parliament Lawmakers Reach Provisional Agreement To Weaken AI Rules

Turkey is looking to test its Yildirimhan intercontinental ballistic missile, which has a range of 6,000 kilometers (3,728 miles), and its medium-range ballistic missile Tayfun-4, which has a range of over 2,000 kilometers, from its spaceport in Somalia, potentially as early as this year, Bloomberg reported on May 6, quoting people familiar with the matter.

Turkey: Ankara Reportedly Eyes ICBM Launch From Somali Spaceport

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi said he would be ready for a third term if the Congolese people so decide, while warning that the 2028 elections may not be possible unless insecurity in the eastern region is resolved, RFI reported on May 6.

Congo: President Hints at Possible Third Term and Election Delay Beyond 2028, Citing Insecurity in the East

Solomon Islands

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele lost a no-confidence vote 26-22, after more than a dozen ministers defected to the opposition in March and courts forced Parliament to reconvene, the Financial Times reported on May 7.

Solomon Islands: Prime Minister's Ouster Raises Prospect of Renewed China Tilt

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Cambodia

Philippines

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet met on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Cebu, Philippines, and agreed to rebuild trust, normalize relations and pursue peace after deadly border clashes in 2025, Bloomberg reported on May 7.

Thailand, Cambodia: Leaders Pledge To Rebuild Ties After 2025 Border Clashes

Oman

Saudi Arabia suspended U.S. rights to use Prince Sultan Air Base and Saudi airspace to support President Donald Trump's short-lived Project Freedom guiding mission in the Strait of Hormuz, NBC News reported on May 6.

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Effectively Vetoed the U.S.' Project Freedom

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: President Trump Signs New Counterterrorism Strategy

U.S., Iran: U.S. Launches Military Strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas

Morocco, Western Sahara: Polisario Front Claims Responsibility for Smara Attack

Colombia: Constitutional Court Overturns Tax Decree on Power Generators

EU: Parliament Lawmakers Reach Provisional Agreement To Weaken AI Rules

Turkey: Ankara Reportedly Eyes ICBM Launch From Somali Spaceport

Congo: President Hints at Possible Third Term and Election Delay Beyond 2028, Citing Insecurity in the East

Solomon Islands: Prime Minister's Ouster Raises Prospect of Renewed China Tilt

Thailand, Cambodia: Leaders Pledge To Rebuild Ties After 2025 Border Clashes

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Effectively Vetoed the U.S.' Project Freedom

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