Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 19, 2026

Iran

Europe

Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026. 

Economics

Military & Security

A U.S.-led naval mission to protect ships from Iranian attacks would likely begin only after the war's intensity decreases, and even then, it would take weeks to organize and yield only a limited return of maritime traffic through the strait.

The Obstacles Facing the U.S. Plan for Strait of Hormuz Naval Escorts

Mozambique

Rwanda

Rwandan soldiers patrol in Mocimboa da Praia, northern Mozambique, on Aug. 12, 2021. 

Energy

Rwanda is unlikely to withdraw all its troops from Cabo Delgado in the short term, but a partial drawdown is possible if the EU doesn't approve fresh funding, which would degrade Mozambique's capacity to counter jihadist militants in the gas-rich region.

Will Rwanda Withdraw Troops From Northern Mozambique?

Israel

Lebanon

Smoke plumes rise above a village in southern Lebanon following Israeli airstrikes on March 16, 2026.

Politics

Even if it engages in direct talks with Lebanon, Israel is unlikely to de-escalate its military operations in the country without major concessions on border security and Hezbollah's disarmament.

Hezbollah-Israel War Set To Intensify, Despite Lebanon's Diplomatic Push

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

Demographics may not be destiny, but it does play a major role in questions of national power.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: An Introduction

China

Japan

Ukraine

A large plume of smoke rises March 7 over Tehran after explosions were reported in the Iranian capital during the night.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Takaichi Meets With Trump

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

Podcasts

What will happen to U.S. interest rates if the war continues?

The Decision Advantage: Economic Impacts of the War on Iran

Saudi Arabia

Pakistan

A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.

Despite having a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will likely only provide the kingdom with low-level defensive and technical support, rather than direct military intervention against Iran, due to various constraints.

In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits 

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, Iran, on March 7, 2026.

Limited commando raids are Trump's most viable option, as larger ground incursions in Iran would face severe logistical, political and strategic risks and remain unlikely without a major shift in regional and U.S. domestic support.

Strategic Risks and Political Hurdles for a U.S. Ground War in Iran

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 12, 2026

Bahrain

People attend the funeral of a person killed during an Iranian drone attack on a high-rise apartment building in Bahrain's capital, Manama, on March 10, 2026.

A sharp rise in domestic sectarian issues and disruptions to key exports through the Strait of Hormuz are converging to threaten the political and economic stability of the kingdom.

Iran War Exposes Bahrain to Fiscal Risks, Sectarian Tensions

Latest

Greenland

Denmark

Danish Defense Minister and top candidate of Denmark's Venstre party, Troels Lund Poulsen (left), and Danish Prime Minister and top candidate of the Social Democrat Party, Mette Frederiksen (right), attend a debate in Copenhagen on March 15, 2026.

The upcoming parliamentary elections could result in three distinct coalitions that would offer varying continuity in domestic economic policy and Copenhagen's approach to U.S. pressure over Greenland.

Denmark's General Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

A farmer sprinkles fertilizer over a crop of cauliflower on the outskirts of Bangalore, India, in November 2020.

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is straining global supplies of nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers, which could lead to lower crop yields, higher food prices and fiscal strain for agricultural producers if the disruptions persist.

Assessing the Iran War's Impact on Global Fertilizer Supplies

Malaysia

A man fills up his truck at a Petroleum Sarawak Berhad (Petros) station in Kuching, Malaysia, on June 20, 2025.

While fuel subsidies have so far cushioned the impact, if the Iran-related energy disruptions persist, the government may have to sacrifice economic reforms to preserve political support before the next election.

Malaysia's Ballooning Fuel Subsidy Costs Will Test the Government's Reform Agenda

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi addresses a news conference at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on Feb. 18.

Global Trade

The Japanese prime minister may offer economic and security concessions during her upcoming summit with the U.S. president to avoid direct entanglement in the Iran conflict while preserving the relationship with Washington.

Iran War Heightens Stakes of Key Takaichi-Trump Summit

Snapshots

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Iraq

Yemen

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

Australia

European Union and Australian flags together.

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

Mexico

A burned car is seen on a highway near Acatlan de Juarez, Jalisco state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. The car was allegedly set on fire by organized crime groups in response to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," the top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel's notorious leader will initially improve U.S.-Mexico ties, but the likely surge in cartel violence will pose long-term risks to businesses and eventually renew pressure for U.S. military action in Mexico.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

U.S.-China Relations

Police in Wuhan arrested seven people and gave administrative penalties to four companies amid a crackdown on trafficking in nationally controlled fentanyl precursors, China's official outlet Xinhua reported on March 19.

China, U.S.: Fentanyl Arrests Will Help Beijing Avoid Higher U.S. Tariffs

Cyber

The FBI seized two websites affiliated with Iran-linked hacktivists known as Handala, TechCrunch reported on March 19.

Iran, U.S.: FBI Seizes Infrastructure of Iran-Linked Group Behind Stryker Hack

Chad

Chadian President Mahamat Idriss Deby ordered the military to retaliate against any Sudanese armed groups after a drone strike killed at least 16 civilians near the Sudan-Chad frontier, Sudan Tribune reported on March 18.

Chad: President Authorizes Military Response to Sudanese Cross-Border Strikes

Science & Technology

Malaysia's trade minister said the U.S.-Malaysia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade is "no longer applicable" following the U.S. Supreme Court's Feb. 20 ruling striking down the International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariff mechanism central to the deal, Nikkei Asia reported on March 18.

Malaysia, U.S.: Kuala Lumpur Declares Trade Deal 'Null and Void'

Thailand

Thailand's House of Representatives voted to confirm incumbent Anutin Charnvirakul of the center-right Bhumjaithai Party as prime minister, with over 290 of around 500 lawmakers backing his candidacy following the Feb. 8 general election, the Bangkok Post reported on March 19.

Thailand: Anutin Reelected as Prime Minister

Canada

Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard posted on X that he met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on March 18 for the first in-person meeting about the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review.

U.S., Mexico, Canada: USMCA Review To Fuel Uncertainty, Result in Ad Hoc Changes

EU leaders are meeting in Brussels, Belgium, on March 19-20 for a summit dominated by the fallout from the Iran conflict, particularly emergency options to curb surging energy prices, Politico reported on March 19, citing draft EU documents. 

EU: EU Leaders Debate Emergency Energy Measures as Iran Conflict Drives Prices Higher

Oil-loading operations in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, resumed after being temporarily halted following staff evacuations due to Iranian attacks targeting the Saudi-ExxonMobil Samref refinery on the Red Sea, Reuters reported on March 19.

Saudi Arabia, Iran: Yanbu Port Operations Resume After Iran-Linked Disruption

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo agreed to take "concrete steps" to support the advancement of their December 2025 peace agreement, the U.S. State Department announced on March 18.

Congo, Rwanda: U.S. Announces Agreement on Implementation of 2025 Peace Deal

An Iranian lawmaker said the parliament was considering placing transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on March 19.

Iran: Tehran Weighs Transit Fees on Ships Passing Through the Strait of Hormuz

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Denmark's General Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China, U.S.: Fentanyl Arrests Will Help Beijing Avoid Higher U.S. Tariffs

Iran, U.S.: FBI Seizes Infrastructure of Iran-Linked Group Behind Stryker Hack

Chad: President Authorizes Military Response to Sudanese Cross-Border Strikes

Malaysia, U.S.: Kuala Lumpur Declares Trade Deal 'Null and Void'

Thailand: Anutin Reelected as Prime Minister

U.S., Mexico, Canada: USMCA Review To Fuel Uncertainty, Result in Ad Hoc Changes

EU: EU Leaders Debate Emergency Energy Measures as Iran Conflict Drives Prices Higher

Saudi Arabia, Iran: Yanbu Port Operations Resume After Iran-Linked Disruption

Congo, Rwanda: U.S. Announces Agreement on Implementation of 2025 Peace Deal

Iran: Tehran Weighs Transit Fees on Ships Passing Through the Strait of Hormuz

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support