Assessments

Botswana

Lesotho

Namibia

South Africa

Eswatini

Colombia

United States

Iran

Russia

Vessels at anchorage June 18 in Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 is highly likely to remain in effect over the coming week, and negotiations toward a final deal will begin.

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Iranian Talks, Colombia's Presidential Runoff

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

South Korea

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung (left) and his wife disembark from the plane at Geneva Airport as they arrive to attend the G7 summit on June 16, 2026.

Lee's handling of the scandal and the resulting backlash could strengthen the conservative opposition and strain relations with the U.S. and Japan, but it could also facilitate closer ties with China.

Ballot Scandal Tests South Korean President Lee's Political, Foreign Policy Goals

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 18, 2026

India

Pakistan

View of the river in the mountains of northern Pakistan.

Environment, Science & Technology

Reduced coordination on river data and forecasting will increase uncertainty in water management, while the potential expansion of Indian upstream infrastructure could portend faster, more unstable crises with Pakistan.

What To Expect if India Starts Halting Indus Water Flows to Pakistan

An Iranian woman walks past a mural depicting Iran and the United States at the negotiation table, painted on the outer walls of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, on Feb. 6, 2026.

Economics

Energy

While the deal will reduce the immediate threat of renewed conflict, shipping through Hormuz will likely resume only gradually amid the risk that talks stall, flare-ups resume and vessels face renewed harassment.

U.S.-Iran Deal Pauses Conflict, but the Path to Peace Remains Fraught

Europe

France

United Kingdom

French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a meeting with leaders of the G7 Engagement Groups ahead of the upcoming G7 summit at the Elysee Palace in Paris on June 10, 2026. 

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Talks Continue, France Hosts G7 Summit

Middle East and North Africa

Israel

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago club on Dec. 29, 2025, in Palm Beach, Florida. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Declining public approval and notable primary losses for traditional pro-Israel lawmakers suggest that a future U.S. Congress will increasingly push for military assistance to be conditioned.

U.S.-Israeli Ties Likely To Continue Cooling as Public Opinion Sours

China

A digital illustration of Europe.

The EU's push to reduce its reliance on foreign technology suppliers risks angering both China and the U.S., while execution will be hindered by domestic industrial constraints and internal political divisions.

Key Takeaways From the EU's Tech Sovereignty Package

Turkey

The ousted chair of Turkey's opposition Republican People’s Party, Ozgur Ozel, addresses lawmakers during his party's group meeting in the Turkish parliament on June 2, 2026, in Ankara, Turkey. 

Turkey's main opposition party will struggle to gain traction amid legal battle and deepening internal divisions, freeing up the ruling party to consider returning to more unorthodox economic policies ahead of the 2028 election.

Turkey's Opposition Struggles To Stay United in the Face of Legal Strife

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 11, 2026

Iraq

Members of Saraya al-Salam gather during a ceremony in the city of Samarra on June 4, 2026, marking their separation from the Sadrist movement and their integration into the Iraqi security forces.

Several militant factions have recently expressed a desire to integrate into Iraq's government structures, but more hard-line groups are unlikely to follow suit without Iran's approval.

Iraq's Push To Disarm Iranian-Backed Militias Will Have Only Partial Success

Latest

Indonesia

The logo of Danantara Indonesia, the country's second sovereign wealth fund, is seen at its headquarters in Jakarta on March 31, 2026. 

Indonesia's new commodity oversight regime marks a major expansion of state control over strategic exports, but fiscal pressure, investor unease and street protests will likely push a softer monitoring model short of a full state takeover.

Managing Uncertainty Under Indonesia's Evolving Export Control Regime

Cockroach Janta Party founder Abhijeet Dipke (center) participates in a protest in Amritsar, India, on June 13, 2026.

Social Issues

While the Cockroach Janta Party has so far struggled to convert its online popularity into large street protests, worsening economic grievances among India's youth could catalyze the movement's growth.

Can India's Viral 'Cockroach' Party Mobilize a Gen Z Uprising?

Algeria

The Council of the National Assembly, Algeria's primary legislative body, is seen in Algiers.

Upcoming elections are unlikely to change the pro-president composition of Algeria's lower house, making significant policy change or reforms unlikely.

Algeria's Parliamentary Elections Will Yield Policy Continuity

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer poses with his wife Victoria at the door to 10 Downing Street after making a statement on his future outside 10 Downing Street on the morning of June 22, 2026, in London. 

While a swift leadership transition by mid-July could restore near-term political stability, investors will focus on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer's successor will be able to successfully balance party unity with fiscal discipline.


Burnham Premiership Could Stabilize U.K. Politics, But Markets Remain Cautious

Brazil

A passerby walks past the Banco Master building in Sao Paulo on Jan. 22, 2026, after Brazil's central bank ordered its shutdown due to a major liquidity crunch and "serious violations" of financial regulations.

Brazil faces severe institutional friction and heightened market volatility as a widening investigation into massive financial fraud threatens to ensnare prominent politicians, justices and businesspeople.

Deepening Corruption Scandal Could Upend Brazilian Presidential Race

People pass by a building in Ramat Gan, Israel, that was destroyed by an Iranian ballistic missile on May 5, 2026. 

Recent direct strikes between Israel and Iran did not immediately collapse the regional truce, but recurrent tit-for-tat escalations would reduce the chance of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Iran-Israel Escalation Threatens Negotiations To End Iran War

North Korea

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) gestures to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before a military parade in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3, 2025. 

North Korea's growing relations with Russia and potential reengagement with the U.S. appear to be driving China to pursue a rapprochement after years of diplomatic inaction.

Xi-Kim Summit Signals a Thaw in Long-Frozen Ties Between China and North Korea

Lebanon

Smoke rises following Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon as seen from a position across the border in the Upper Galilee in northern Israel on May 31, 2026.

Should Israel-Lebanon talks stall, the U.S. would be more likely to greenlight a broader campaign against Hezbollah, though it could also pressure Israel into a more comprehensive truce if Trump deems it necessary for an Iran deal.

U.S. Mediation Unlikely To Lead to Lasting Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

Australia

Fiji

Japan

(From left to right) Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hold a joint press conference after their Quad meeting in New Delhi on May 26, 2026.

The meeting proved the grouping is still functional, but it faces strong constraints in turning ambitious coordination frameworks into functional maritime, infrastructure, critical minerals and energy initiatives that blunt Chinese regional influence.

Takeaways From Quad Summit: New Initiatives, Enduring Constraints and Future Uncertainty

Columns

On Geopolitics

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Cuba

Cuba's Communist Party signed off on a package of economic reforms during a June 17 extraordinary plenary session, though officials said the reforms "in no way constitute a deviation from the socialist project," DW reported on June 18. 

Cuba: Havana Releases Some Details on Economic Reforms

India and the United Kingdom agreed to implement their free trade agreement on July 15 after London addressed India's concerns about higher U.K. steel tariffs set to take effect on July 1, Reuters reported on June 17.

India, U.K.: Trade Deal To Be Implemented Mid-July Following British Assurances on Steel Tariffs

Ukraine

Scores of Ukrainian drones and missiles targeted Moscow overnight, hitting Moscow's Kapotnya Oil Refinery for the second time in a week, disrupting airport operations and forcing road closures in and around the capital, Reuters reported on June 17.

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine Hits Kapotnya as Russia's Fuel Strains Grow

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe's National Assembly voted 216-42 to approve constitutional amendments extending presidential terms from five to seven years, Bloomberg reported on June 18.

Zimbabwe: Parliament Approves Plans To Extend President Mnangagwa's Term to 2030

Niger

Unknown attackers targeted Niger's Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey for over two hours, leading to gunfire and explosions that killed at least 35 people, 22 of whom were assailants, before security forces regained control, RFI reported on June 18. 

Niger: At Least 35 Killed Following Gunfire, Explosions at Niamey's Main Airport

Speaking ahead of a NATO defense ministers' summit in Brussels, Belgium, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a six-month review of U.S. force posture and basing in Europe, tying its outcome to how quickly European allies assume primary responsibility for the Continent's defense, a June 18 transcript by the U.S. Department of Defense shows.

U.S., Europe: U.S. Launches Force Posture Review as It Presses Europe To Shoulder Its Own Defense

Science & Technology

Germany

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Ethiopia

Speaking alongside Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, U.S. President Donald Trump said Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, on the Blue Nile was causing "tremendous problems" for Egypt and that Cairo had been "very unfairly treated," adding that the Nile waters would be a focus of his talks with al-Sisi on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in France, Addis Standard reported on June 17.

U.S., Egypt, Ethiopia: Trump Reiterates Support for Egypt in Nile Dispute With Ethiopia

Brazil's Federal Police carried out a search ​and seizure warrant on Sen. Jaques Wagner, a close ally of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, as ​part of an investigation into the financial fraud and corruption scheme involving Banco Master bank, CNN Brasil reported on June 18.

Brazil: Corruption Scandal Reaches Lula Ally and Lower House Speaker

Malaysia

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted leaders and senior officials of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Kazan, Russia, for a two-day summit, AP reported on June 18, marking the first such leaders' summit since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

ASEAN, Russia: Summit Highlights How Energy Shock Gives Moscow a Regional Opening

U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding to de-escalate the regional conflict and open talks on reaching a final agreement, AP reported on June 17.

U.S., Iran: U.S.-Iran MoU Enters Into Effect

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Burnham Premiership Could Stabilize U.K. Politics, But Markets Remain Cautious

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Cuba: Havana Releases Some Details on Economic Reforms

India, U.K.: Trade Deal To Be Implemented Mid-July Following British Assurances on Steel Tariffs

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine Hits Kapotnya as Russia's Fuel Strains Grow

Zimbabwe: Parliament Approves Plans To Extend President Mnangagwa's Term to 2030

Niger: At Least 35 Killed Following Gunfire, Explosions at Niamey's Main Airport

U.S., Europe: U.S. Launches Force Posture Review as It Presses Europe To Shoulder Its Own Defense

U.S., Egypt, Ethiopia: Trump Reiterates Support for Egypt in Nile Dispute With Ethiopia

Brazil: Corruption Scandal Reaches Lula Ally and Lower House Speaker

ASEAN, Russia: Summit Highlights How Energy Shock Gives Moscow a Regional Opening

U.S., Iran: U.S.-Iran MoU Enters Into Effect

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