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Middle East and North Africa

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

United States

Venezuela

Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.

The detention of the Venezuelan president creates a power vacuum that risks triggering violent unrest while establishing a precedent for further U.S. interventionism in Latin America.

U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

China

North Korea

South Korea

Ukraine

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Global Trade

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Russia

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.

The Trump administration will likely soon launch more strikes inside Venezuela following the reported CIA drone attack on a suspected drug port, though a U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Media

Podcasts

How has U.S. interest in the Middle East evolved over time? 

Essential Geopolitics: A Historical Look Back on U.S.-Middle East Relations

A general view shows the closed border checkpoint between Cambodia and Thailand in Poipet, Cambodia, on Dec. 12, 2025, amid clashes in the area.

The Southeast Asian countries' second pause following the failed July ceasefire remains highly fragile due to early alleged violations and unresolved territorial disputes, which could lead to renewed large-scale fighting in the years ahead.

Another Thai-Cambodian Truce Halts Escalating Border Clashes -- For Now

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

Latest

Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026. 

The Gulf nations' growing battle for influence is straining bilateral ties and fueling proxy conflicts in places like Yemen and Sudan, though both sides will likely avoid any escalation that could harm their economies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World

Greenland

Denmark

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Brazil

Colombia

Guyana

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. 

Venezuela's acting president is most likely to cooperate with the United States to keep the country's regime intact, but other, more volatile scenarios remain possible. 

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

United Kingdom

The Sevington Inland Border Facility on April 29, 2024, in southeast England. Rejoining the EU customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Rejoining the bloc's customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Despite Growing Calls, U.K. Unlikely To Rejoin EU Customs Union

The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.

Increased military mobilizations, failed negotiations with Maduro and persistent aggressive rhetoric suggest the Trump administration will likely soon escalate its Caribbean military campaign to targeted strikes in Venezuelan territory.

The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

Iraq

Iraqi riot police walk past a screen displaying a portrait of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during celebrations by his supporters following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The Nov. 11 elections produced another fragmented legislature where Iranian-backed parties still have significant influence, portending contentious government formation talks that could impede policymaking and trigger armed clashes.

Iraq Braces for Another Turbulent Government Formation Process

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

On Security

Kenya

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Tunisia

Serbia

Bangladesh

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

China's commerce ministry on Jan. 7 commenced a 12-18-month anti-dumping investigation into Japanese imports of dichlorosilane, a chemical used in semiconductor manufacturing.

China, Japan: Beijing Targets Japan's Chip Chemicals, Mulls Rare Earth Curbs

The Kawthoolei Army, a splinter group of the Karen ethnic community that has broken away from the larger Karen National Union, or KNU, proclaimed the independence of the Republic of Kawthoolei and announced a provisional government during a ceremony near the Thailand-Myanmar border, though the KNU quickly rejected the declaration, The Nation Thailand reported on Jan. 7.

Myanmar: Splinter Group Declares Independence Amid Election Violence

Yemen's Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council, or PLC, expelled Aidarous al-Zubaidi, the leader of the separatist, Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council, or STC, from the ruling coalition, referring him to the attorney general for treason charges, AP reported on Jan. 6. 

Yemen: PLC Declares STC Head a Traitor, Retakes STC Stronghold

Ukraine's allies, representing the "Coalition of the Willing," agreed in Paris, France, to extend multilayered international security guarantees as part of a U.S.-brokered peace proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, AP reported on Jan. 6.

Ukraine, Europe, U.S.: Security Guarantees for Ukraine Emerge, but Key Details Remain Unresolved

U.S. government officials have outlined to Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez that Washington's main priorities for Caracas are fighting drug trafficking, removing from the country operatives from Iran, Cuba and other nations hostile to the United States, and halting the shipment of oil to U.S. adversaries, Politico reported on Jan. 5.

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. Officials Outline Priorities for Caracas After Maduro's Departure

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is in Shanghai with a business delegation following a Jan. 5 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in which they discussed technology and cultural goods exchanges and their shared history of fighting for independence from Japan, Yonhap News Agency reported on Jan. 6.

South Korea, Japan: Lee's Historical Visits, Trade Opportunism Constrain Tokyo Ties

China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Jan. 6 that it was banning all exports of items on its list of dual-use goods to "Japanese military users, for military purposes, and for any other end-user purposes that could enhance Japan's military capabilities."

China, Japan: Export Curbs To Impede Japan's Military Modernization, Harden Its National Security Focus

The Central African Republic's President Faustin-Archange Touadera was reelected in the Dec. 28, 2025, presidential election with 76.15% of the vote, according to provisional results announced by the electoral commission and reported by Jeune Afrique on Jan. 6.

Central African Republic: Incumbent Declared Winner of Presidential Poll as Opposition Leader Claims Victory

The United Kingdom's government is preparing legislation to establish a legal framework for closer alignment with the European Union as part of Labour's promised post-Brexit "reset" of relations with the bloc, The Guardian reported on Jan. 6, citing British officials.

EU, U.K.: London Prepares Legislation To Increase Regulatory Alignment With EU

Science & Technology

Oman

New Zealand

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.

New trade pacts offer gains in market access and investment but India's protectionist stance on agriculture and dairy remains an obstacle to deals with the United States and European Union. 


Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

Sri Lanka

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

2026 Annual Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China, Japan: Beijing Targets Japan's Chip Chemicals, Mulls Rare Earth Curbs

Myanmar: Splinter Group Declares Independence Amid Election Violence

Yemen: PLC Declares STC Head a Traitor, Retakes STC Stronghold

Ukraine, Europe, U.S.: Security Guarantees for Ukraine Emerge, but Key Details Remain Unresolved

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. Officials Outline Priorities for Caracas After Maduro's Departure

South Korea, Japan: Lee's Historical Visits, Trade Opportunism Constrain Tokyo Ties

China, Japan: Export Curbs To Impede Japan's Military Modernization, Harden Its National Security Focus

Central African Republic: Incumbent Declared Winner of Presidential Poll as Opposition Leader Claims Victory

EU, U.K.: London Prepares Legislation To Increase Regulatory Alignment With EU

U.S., Colombia: Colombian Government Tries To De-escalate Tensions Amid Trump-Petro Spat

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