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On Geopolitics

United States

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Politics

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Assessments

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Lebanon

People attend a gathering honoring Iran's former Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on March 1, 2026, at Ashura Square in southern Beirut, Lebanon. 

Economics

The Iran war has thrown a wrench in Iraq's and Lebanon's political stalemates, likely further prolonging government formation and delaying elections.

Political Stalemates in Iraq and Lebanon Deepen Amid Regional Instability

Media

Podcasts

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is gone, and the U.S. and Israel-Iran war is widening. Here's what you need to know to navigate the immediate aftermath of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

RANE Red Alert: What To Watch Following the U.S.-Israeli Attacks on Iran

Smoke plumes billow following Israel's bombardment of Beirut's southern suburbs on March 2, 2026. 

Israel is set to escalate its campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, despite the Lebanese government's accelerated efforts to disarm the militant group.

Lebanon Joins the Region's Growing Conflict After Hezbollah Strikes Israel

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Cargo ships and tankers are seen in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Fujairah, the United Arab Emirates, on Feb. 25, 2026. 

Energy

Although most of the Middle East's crucial oil and gas assets have so far been spared, a prolonged conflict would raise the risk of material supply disruptions and price shocks, particularly for LNG markets.

How Will the Iran War Impact the World's Oil and Gas Supplies?

Europe

A woman holds a photo of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iranians protest against attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States on Feb. 28, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. 

Global Trade

Depending on the duration of maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the escalating conflict is set to subject European economies to significant energy market volatility.

European Economic Growth Likely To Suffer From Impact of U.S. and Israel-Iran War

U.S.-Iran Relations

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

The Crown Plaza on March 1 showing damage from an Iranian military strike in Manama, Bahrain. Iran's attacks will push the Gulf Arab states more toward security alignment with the United States, and threaten their status as a secure investment destination.

Iran's attacks will push the Gulf Arab states more toward security alignment with the United States, and threaten their status as a secure investment destination.

The Implications of Iran's Attacks on the Gulf

Snapshots

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Canada

Australia

China

Japan

Germany

India

The Tehran skyline on Dec. 30, 2025. On March 2, U.S. and Iranian negotiators will meet in Vienna, Austria, to begin technical talks on a nuclear deal.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Conflict in the Middle East, Merz meets Trump 

Yemen

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Palestinian Territories

A view shows tents near the Port of Gaza in the Gaza Strip on Feb. 9, 2026.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

With its focus on Iran, the U.S. is unlikely to greenlight a major new Israeli offensive in Gaza anytime soon, which will complicate Netanyahu's efforts to remove Hamas from the Strip before the October elections.

Netanyahu Will Struggle To Defeat Hamas Before Israeli Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Latest

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Senior members of Ethiopia's armed forces attend a ceremony in Guba on Sept. 9, 2025.

The Ethiopian government's military buildup near Tigray suggests that fresh clashes with the TPLF are likely in the coming months, which could quickly morph into a major, protracted conflict that draws in neighboring Eritrea.

Assessing the Risk of Conflict in Northern Ethiopia: Short-Term Scenarios

Volunteers clean up the rubble outside a government building in Tehran, Iran, that was destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes on March 4, 2026.

The war will most likely end in a tenuous ceasefire in the coming weeks, though a faster or slower truce is possible, depending on the U.S.'s political resolve to maintain its campaign against Iran.

The Iran War Will Last as Long as U.S. Political Resolve Does

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Feb. 3 in Washington.

India will likely delay finalizing its trade deal with the United States while seeking opportunities to expand its Russian oil imports, creating a risk of U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs against it.

The State of the Indian-U.S. Trade Deal After IEEPA Tariffs

Ukraine

Russia

A Ukrainian serviceman stands next to a truck equipped with a machine gun during an air raid alert in Kyiv on Jan. 24, 2026, amid Russia’s ongoing invasion.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's ability to sustain its war efforts despite mounting economic strain, combined with the U.S.'s new focus on Iran, makes meaningful progress in peace talks unlikely anytime soon.

Ukraine War Enters Its Fifth Year, With No Near End in Sight

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

European Union and Australian flags together.

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

Mexico

A burned car is seen on a highway near Acatlan de Juarez, Jalisco state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. The car was allegedly set on fire by organized crime groups in response to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," the top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel's notorious leader will initially improve U.S.-Mexico ties, but the likely surge in cartel violence will pose long-term risks to businesses and eventually renew pressure for U.S. military action in Mexico.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

South Korea

Vietnam

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House on Feb. 20, 2026, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump's use of emergency powers to implement international trade tariffs.

The Trump administration will use other trade authorities to replace many of the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, meaning U.S. trading partners will remain incentivized to engage on trade matters.

What the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Means for Trump and U.S. Trading Partners

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Syria

Turkey

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Ecuador

The United States Southern Command announced in a March 3 post on X that U.S. military forces were engaging in "operations against Designated Terrorist Organizations in Ecuador" alongside Ecuadorian military forces.

Ecuador, U.S.: U.S. Military Participates in Joint Operations Against Drug Traffickers in Ecuador

Russian President Vladimir Putin called a drone attack on the Russian-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker Arctic Metagaz in the Mediterranean a "terrorist attack," Russian state media RIA Novosti reported on March 4.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Calls LNG Tanker Strike Terrorism, Floats Gas Cutoff to Europe

Sri Lanka

The Turkish Ministry of National Defense announced that NATO air and missile defenses had shot down an Iranian ballistic missile heading toward Turkish airspace, Reuters reported on March 4.

MENA: NATO Air Defenses Intercept Iranian Ballistic Missile, U.S. Sinks Iranian Warship

Cambodia

Thailand

Thailand's Election Commission certified nearly all results from the Feb. 8 general election, confirming the Bhumjaithai Party as the largest party with 192 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives, the Bangkok Post reported on March 4.

Thailand: February Vote Certified Amid Ongoing Probes

Philippines

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is in the Philippines and, with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., oversaw the signing of multiple agreements expanding defense industrial cooperation, including provisions easing procurement rules and broadening eligibility for South Korean companies in ongoing Philippine military modernization projects, Nikkei Asia reported on March 4. 

South Korea, Philippines: Seoul Further Expands Defense Ties With Manila 

Spain

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to halt trade with Spain and instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to "cut off all dealings" with the country amid tensions over Madrid's refusal to allow U.S. forces to use jointly operated bases for strikes on Iran, Reuters reported on March 3.

Spain, U.S.: Trump Threatens Trade Cutoff After Madrid Blocks Use of U.S. Bases for Iran Strikes

Nigeria

The average price of gasoline at Nigerian fuel stations rose from around 860 naira per liter to 970 naira per liter ($0.70 per liter or $2.65 per U.S. gallon) in the first few days of March, a close to 13% increase, after the country's Dangote refinery increased the price of its gantry by 100 naira per liter, BusinessDay reported on March 4.

Nigeria: Iran-Driven Energy Price Increases Showcase Mixed Outlook for the Economy

Science & Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

U.S.-China Relations

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Venezuela

The U.S. government is discreetly building a legal case targeting Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez, which includes preparing a draft criminal indictment, Reuters reported on March 3. 

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. To Use Draft Indictment Against Rodriguez as Additional Leverage

The CIA is preparing a possible uprising in Iranian Kurdistan by providing arms and political support for Iranian Kurdish opposition forces, sources familiar with the plan told CNN on March 4.

U.S., Iran: CIA Plotting Kurdish Uprising in Iran

The son of deceased Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, has emerged as the clear front-runner to replace his father, The New York Times reported on March 3.

Iran: Khamenei's Hard-Line Son Emerges as Top Candidate To Replace Him

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Assessing the Risk of Conflict in Northern Ethiopia: Short-Term Scenarios

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ecuador, U.S.: U.S. Military Participates in Joint Operations Against Drug Traffickers in Ecuador

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Calls LNG Tanker Strike Terrorism, Floats Gas Cutoff to Europe

MENA: NATO Air Defenses Intercept Iranian Ballistic Missile, U.S. Sinks Iranian Warship

Thailand: February Vote Certified Amid Ongoing Probes

South Korea, Philippines: Seoul Further Expands Defense Ties With Manila

Spain, U.S.: Trump Threatens Trade Cutoff After Madrid Blocks Use of U.S. Bases for Iran Strikes

Nigeria: Iran-Driven Energy Price Increases Showcase Mixed Outlook for the Economy

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. To Use Draft Indictment Against Rodriguez as Additional Leverage

U.S., Iran: CIA Plotting Kurdish Uprising in Iran

Iran: Khamenei's Hard-Line Son Emerges as Top Candidate To Replace Him

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