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How will election results impact Vietnam's economic growth in the near term?

The Decision Advantage: What To Expect From Vietnam's Leadership Election Results

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Jordan

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Jordanian Armed Forces, U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps forces and other international forces conduct a combined Arms Live Fire Exercise on May 23, 2024 in the desert near Azraq, Jordan. 

Economics

Military & Security

As the United States prepares to withdraw its final troops from Syria, Amman will likely expand cross-border security operations to counter Islamic State and disrupt drug smuggling networks.

Jordan Likely To Step Up Anti-Islamic State, Countersmuggling Operations in Syria

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Plumes of smoke rise following reported explosions in Tehran on March 2, 2026, after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top military leaders, prompting a new wave of Iranian retaliatory missile attacks across the region. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: War in the Middle East, U.S.-China Trade Talks

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Egypt

Turkey

A an Iranian missile that landed March 4 near the Turkish border in the Qamishli district of al-Hasaka, Syria. Although direct strikes as part of Iranian regional retaliation remain unlikely, the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran threatens Egypt and Turkey with energy disruptions and security challenges.

Although direct strikes as part of Iranian regional retaliation remain unlikely, the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran threatens Egypt and Turkey with energy disruptions and security challenges.

Evaluating the Spillover Risks of the Iran War for Egypt and Turkey

Indonesia

Japan

South Korea

The U.S. Supreme Court in October 2024 in Washington.

The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against the Trump administration's tariffs imposed under the IEEPA still leaves Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam vulnerable to other trade escalation mechanisms.

Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam Assess Their U.S. Trade Deals After IEEPA Tariffs

The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (R91) on Feb. 25 at the quay of the North Port in Malmo, Sweden. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East would increase Europe's exposure to security risks, including potential attacks on European-linked assets, renewed migration pressures and an elevated terrorism threat, particularly if European capitals assume a more active military or diplomatic role against the Iranian regime.

A protracted regional war threatens to expose the Continent to risks ranging from cyberattacks against critical infrastructure to a renewed influx of asylum seekers.

Prolonged Conflict in Iran Would Elevate Security, Migration Threats Against Europe

Members of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) participate in a military drill in an outpost near Arbil, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, on Jan. 15, 2026.

Although arming Iranian Kurdish factions might increase pressure on Tehran, such an uprising alone would be unlikely to collapse the regime, while significantly raising the risk of drawing Turkey and Iraq into the conflict.

The Risks and Constraints of a U.S.-Backed Kurdish Uprising in Iran

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 5, 2026

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Senior members of Ethiopia's armed forces attend a ceremony in Guba on Sept. 9, 2025.

The Ethiopian government's military buildup near Tigray suggests that fresh clashes with the TPLF are likely in the coming months, which could quickly morph into a major, protracted conflict that draws in neighboring Eritrea.

Assessing the Risk of Conflict in Northern Ethiopia: Short-Term Scenarios

Volunteers clean up the rubble outside a government building in Tehran, Iran, that was destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes on March 4, 2026.

Energy

The war will most likely end in a tenuous ceasefire in the coming weeks, though a faster or slower truce is possible, depending on the U.S.'s political resolve to maintain its campaign against Iran.

The Iran War Will Last as Long as U.S. Political Resolve Does

India

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Feb. 3 in Washington.

India will likely delay finalizing its trade deal with the United States while seeking opportunities to expand its Russian oil imports, creating a risk of U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs against it.

The State of the Indian-U.S. Trade Deal After IEEPA Tariffs

Latest

North Korea

Russia

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un speaks during the Ninth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Feb. 22, 2026. 

Kim Jong Un's latest directives suggest a willingness to pursue high-level negotiations with the United States and China in pursuit of critical economic concessions.

North Korea's Party Congress Points to Diplomatic Window of Opportunity

Europe

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil talks to the media before the start of an Eurogroup ministers meeting at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on March 9, 2026. 

While the EU is making some progress on a capital markets union, a fully unified market remains unlikely anytime soon due to fragmented national laws and disagreements over centralized regulatory control.

A European Capital Markets Union: Incremental Progress and Enduring Obstacles

Ecuador

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa at his "Shield of the Americas" summit, a gathering with heads of state and government officials from 12 countries in the Americas at the Trump National Doral Golf Club on March 7, 2026, in Doral, Florida. 

The United States' increasing interventionism across the Americas has led to joint military operations with Ecuador, which, if sustained, could successfully reduce cartel violence there.

U.S.-Ecuador Military Operations Expand Washington's Regional Interventionism

Snapshots

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Yemen

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

Australia

European Union and Australian flags together.

Global Trade

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

Mexico

A burned car is seen on a highway near Acatlan de Juarez, Jalisco state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. The car was allegedly set on fire by organized crime groups in response to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," the top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel's notorious leader will initially improve U.S.-Mexico ties, but the likely surge in cartel violence will pose long-term risks to businesses and eventually renew pressure for U.S. military action in Mexico.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Environment, Science & Technology

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Libya

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

The China State Railway Group announced on March 9 that it would resume direct passenger rail service between Beijing and Pyongyang and international passenger rail service between China's border city of Dandong and Pyongyang, effective March 12.

China, North Korea: Cross-Border Passenger Rail Service Resumes

U.S.-China Relations

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is focused on day-of negotiations and securing purchase agreements during his trip to China to meet with President Xi Jinping from March 31 to April 2, according to Semafor sources on March 10, while Xi's team wants terms finalized beforehand and is aiming for a broader deal with long-term investments. 

U.S., China: Old Grievances, Different Tactics and Goals Shape Trump-Xi Summit

The United States designated organizations linked to the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan, namely the Sudanese Islamic Movement, or SIM, and the Al-Baraa bin Malik Bataillon, or BBMB, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, effective from March 16, the U.S. State Department announced on March 9.

Sudan: U.S. Designates Sudan's Muslim Brotherhood as Foreign Terrorist Organization

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio designated Afghanistan and its Taliban government a "state sponsor of wrongful detention," demanding the group end its continuing use of "terrorist tactics" and kidnappings "for ransom or to seek policy concessions," Reuters reported on March 9.

U.S., Afghanistan: Washington Designates Afghanistan 'State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention'

U.S. President Donald Trump said he had a "very good call" with Russian President Vladimir Putin about Ukraine and the Iran conflict and is considering easing certain oil sanctions on Russia to help cool surging energy prices, Reuters reported on March 9.

U.S., Russia, Iran: Trump Weighs Easing Russian Oil Sanctions After Call With Putin

Burkina Faso

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Mali

Niger

The United States is nearing an agreement with Mali that would enable it to conduct intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, or ISR, flights over Malian airspace to gather intelligence on jihadist groups operating in the country, Reuters reported on March 9 based on conversations with a current U.S. official and one former U.S. official.

Mali: U.S. Reportedly Nearing Deal To Resume ISR Operations

Cuba

U.S. President Donald Trump said a U.S. takeover of Cuba could be friendly or not, Reuters reported on March 9.

U.S., Cuba: Washington To Maintain Pressure on Havana To Obtain Economic and Political Concessions

U.S. President Donald Trump said the Iran war is "very complete, pretty much" and also said he is considering taking over the Strait of Hormuz to enable maritime shipping -- especially oil exports -- to resume and threatened greater retaliation against Iran if it tried to stop oil shipments, AP reported on March 9.

MENA: Trump Says Iran War To End Soon, But Bombing Continues Throughout the Region

Science & Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the company would be able to resume about 70% of its total oil shipments to customers within days by boosting exports from the Red Sea Yanbu oil terminal, the Financial Times reported on March 10.

Saudi Arabia: Saudi Aramco To Restore 70% of Crude Oil Exports After Whirlwind Oil Trading Day

Argentina

Bolivia

Costa Rica

Dominican Republic

El Salvador

Guyana

Honduras

Panama

Paraguay

Trinidad and Tobago

The United States hosted the "Shield of the Americas" summit in Doral, Florida, during which U.S. President Donald Trump signed a proclamation launching a coalition to combat drug cartels, The Guardian reported on March 7.

North Korea's Party Congress Points to Diplomatic Window of Opportunity

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China, North Korea: Cross-Border Passenger Rail Service Resumes

U.S., China: Old Grievances, Different Tactics and Goals Shape Trump-Xi Summit

Sudan: U.S. Designates Sudan's Muslim Brotherhood as Foreign Terrorist Organization

U.S., Afghanistan: Washington Designates Afghanistan 'State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention'

U.S., Russia, Iran: Trump Weighs Easing Russian Oil Sanctions After Call With Putin

Mali: U.S. Reportedly Nearing Deal To Resume ISR Operations

U.S., Cuba: Washington To Maintain Pressure on Havana To Obtain Economic and Political Concessions

MENA: Trump Says Iran War To End Soon, But Bombing Continues Throughout the Region

Saudi Arabia: Saudi Aramco To Restore 70% of Crude Oil Exports After Whirlwind Oil Trading Day

U.S., Latin America: Shield of the Americas Summit Establishes Coalition To Combat Cartels

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