Assessments

Benin

Uganda

Canada

United States

Venezuela

Greenland

Iran

China

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Media

Podcasts

What are the key factors shaping political dynamics in the region?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for European Politics in 2026

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Israel

Syria

Israeli troops patrol the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights on July 23, 2025. 

While the new U.S.-backed intelligence-sharing agreement will help temporarily ease cross-border tensions, unresolved security issues and structural constraints undermine the prospects for deeper normalization.

Syria-Israel Deal Paves Way for Broader Security Coordination, but Constraints Remain

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 8, 2026

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

Economics

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

U.S.-Iran Relations

Mexico

A 3D rendering of the Canadian, U.S. and Mexican flags.

Energy

The White House is expected to utilize threats of scrapping the trilateral pact in favor of bilateral agreements as a high-stakes negotiating tactic, creating a period of intense business uncertainty and market volatility.

The Outlook for USMCA Renegotiation in 2026

Sudan

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026. 

Social Issues

The Gulf nations' growing battle for influence is straining bilateral ties and fueling proxy conflicts in places like Yemen and Sudan, though both sides will likely avoid any escalation that could harm their economies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World

Europe

Russia

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

U.S.-China Relations

Brazil

Colombia

Guyana

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. 

Venezuela's acting president is most likely to cooperate with the United States to keep the country's regime intact, but other, more volatile scenarios remain possible. 

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.

The detention of the Venezuelan president creates a power vacuum that risks triggering violent unrest while establishing a precedent for further U.S. interventionism in Latin America.

U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region

Latest

Supporters of National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate and opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, gather to attend a campaign rally in Kampala, on Nov. 24, 2025. 

President Museveni's expected reelection is set to trigger opposition protests, but a heavy-handed crackdown will likely restore order within weeks, enabling him to resume focus on infrastructure projects and mitigating intra-elite tensions.

Previewing Uganda's General Elections

Turkey

Soldiers ride atop an armored vehicle during a military parade in Idlib, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2025. 

Domestic political maneuvering and limits on foreign military support will constrain Syria's ability to rebuild its military following the end of the country's civil war.

Internal Divisions Will Hinder Syria's Military Modernization

A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.

The Trump administration will likely soon launch more strikes inside Venezuela following the reported CIA drone attack on a suspected drug port, though a U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Egypt

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

United Kingdom

The Sevington Inland Border Facility on April 29, 2024, in southeast England. Rejoining the EU customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Rejoining the bloc's customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Despite Growing Calls, U.K. Unlikely To Rejoin EU Customs Union

The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.

Increased military mobilizations, failed negotiations with Maduro and persistent aggressive rhetoric suggest the Trump administration will likely soon escalate its Caribbean military campaign to targeted strikes in Venezuelan territory.

The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

Columns

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Global Trade

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Palestinian Territories

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Tunisia

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

U.S. President Donald Trump said during an interview with Fox News on Jan. 8 that the United States would soon conduct operations targeting drug cartels on Mexican soil, The Hill reported the same day.

U.S., Mexico: Trump Says U.S. Will Conduct Operations Against Mexican Cartels

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media that he cancelled a "previously scheduled" second wave of attacks against Venezuela since the country's new government is cooperating with Washington, CNN reported on Jan. 9.

U.S., Venezuela: Trump Says He Cancelled Second Wave of Attacks After Caracas' Cooperation

Taiwan's more pro-China Kuomintang, or KMT, and the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP, are in the final stages of talks to revive the Cross-Strait Economic, Trade and Culture Forum in order to facilitate economic and cultural exchanges, the South China Morning Post reported on Jan. 9.

Taiwan: Opposition Seeks To Revive Controversial Forum With China

U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with The New York Times on Jan. 8 that while he would "love" for recent U.S. military action in Nigeria to be a "one-time strike," it would be a "many-time strike" if more Christians were killed in the country.

Nigeria: Trump Hints at More U.S. Strikes if More Christians Are Killed

South Africa is scheduled to host the BRICS+ "Will for Peace" naval military exercises off the coast of Simons Town's naval base in the company of Chinese, Russian and Iranian vessels on Jan. 9-16, The Independent Online reported on Jan. 9.

South Africa: Pretoria's BRICS+ Naval Drills With Iran Set To Draw Trump's Ire

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Mali

Residents in Mali's capital, Bamako, are increasingly aggrieved by severe power shortages, with many receiving just two to five hours of electricity per day and some areas experiencing blackouts lasting longer than 24 hours, Radio France Internationale reported on Jan. 8.

Mali: Anger in Bamako Rises Over Fuel Power Crisis Amid JNIM Blockade

Iranian demonstrators took to the streets of Tehran and several other cities on Jan. 8-9, with images circulating across social media showing government buildings set ablaze, Axios reported on Jan. 9.

Iran: Protests Expand, Become More Violent Amid Internet Blackout

Poland

Russia fired a nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at targets in Ukraine's Lviv region during a broader missile and drone attack on energy and civilian infrastructure, Reuters reported on Jan. 9.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Uses Oreshnik Nuclear-Capable Missile in Ukraine

Paraguay

France

Belgium

Austria

Italy

Ireland

EU member states gave provisional approval for the European Commission to sign the long-delayed free trade agreement with South America's Mercosur bloc, Reuters reported Jan. 9.

EU, Mercosur: EU Member States Approve Mercosur Trade Deal

A fragile ceasefire between the Syrian army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, in Aleppo collapsed just hours after it was announced when SDF militants refused to abide by the government's deadline to leave the city, Al Jazeera reported on Jan. 9.

Syria: Government-SDF Ceasefire in Aleppo Collapses 

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

2026 Annual Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Mexico: Trump Says U.S. Will Conduct Operations Against Mexican Cartels

U.S., Venezuela: Trump Says He Cancelled Second Wave of Attacks After Caracas' Cooperation

Taiwan: Opposition Seeks To Revive Controversial Forum With China

Nigeria: Trump Hints at More U.S. Strikes if More Christians Are Killed

South Africa: Pretoria's BRICS+ Naval Drills With Iran Set To Draw Trump's Ire

Mali: Anger in Bamako Rises Over Fuel Power Crisis Amid JNIM Blockade

Iran: Protests Expand, Become More Violent Amid Internet Blackout

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Uses Oreshnik Nuclear-Capable Missile in Ukraine

EU, Mercosur: EU Member States Approve Mercosur Trade Deal

Syria: Government-SDF Ceasefire in Aleppo Collapses

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support