Assessments

Botswana

Lesotho

Namibia

South Africa

Eswatini

Colombia

United States

Iran

Russia

Vessels at anchorage June 18 in Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 is highly likely to remain in effect over the coming week, and negotiations toward a final deal will begin.

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Iranian Talks, Colombia's Presidential Runoff

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

South Korea

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung (left) and his wife disembark from the plane at Geneva Airport as they arrive to attend the G7 summit on June 16, 2026.

Lee's handling of the scandal and the resulting backlash could strengthen the conservative opposition and strain relations with the U.S. and Japan, but it could also facilitate closer ties with China.

Ballot Scandal Tests South Korean President Lee's Political, Foreign Policy Goals

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 18, 2026

India

Cockroach Janta Party founder Abhijeet Dipke (center) participates in a protest in Amritsar, India, on June 13, 2026.

Economics

Social Issues

While the Cockroach Janta Party has so far struggled to convert its online popularity into large street protests, worsening economic grievances among India's youth could catalyze the movement's growth.

Can India's Viral 'Cockroach' Party Mobilize a Gen Z Uprising?

Algeria

The Council of the National Assembly, Algeria's primary legislative body, is seen in Algiers.

Energy

Upcoming elections are unlikely to change the pro-president composition of Algeria's lower house, making significant policy change or reforms unlikely.

Algeria's Parliamentary Elections Will Yield Policy Continuity

Pakistan

View of the river in the mountains of northern Pakistan.

Environment, Science & Technology

Reduced coordination on river data and forecasting will increase uncertainty in water management, while the potential expansion of Indian upstream infrastructure could portend faster, more unstable crises with Pakistan.

What To Expect if India Starts Halting Indus Water Flows to Pakistan

An Iranian woman walks past a mural depicting Iran and the United States at the negotiation table, painted on the outer walls of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, on Feb. 6, 2026.

While the deal will reduce the immediate threat of renewed conflict, shipping through Hormuz will likely resume only gradually amid the risk that talks stall, flare-ups resume and vessels face renewed harassment.

U.S.-Iran Deal Pauses Conflict, but the Path to Peace Remains Fraught

Europe

France

United Kingdom

French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a meeting with leaders of the G7 Engagement Groups ahead of the upcoming G7 summit at the Elysee Palace in Paris on June 10, 2026. 

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Talks Continue, France Hosts G7 Summit

Middle East and North Africa

Israel

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago club on Dec. 29, 2025, in Palm Beach, Florida. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Declining public approval and notable primary losses for traditional pro-Israel lawmakers suggest that a future U.S. Congress will increasingly push for military assistance to be conditioned.

U.S.-Israeli Ties Likely To Continue Cooling as Public Opinion Sours

China

A digital illustration of Europe.

The EU's push to reduce its reliance on foreign technology suppliers risks angering both China and the U.S., while execution will be hindered by domestic industrial constraints and internal political divisions.

Key Takeaways From the EU's Tech Sovereignty Package

Turkey

The ousted chair of Turkey's opposition Republican People’s Party, Ozgur Ozel, addresses lawmakers during his party's group meeting in the Turkish parliament on June 2, 2026, in Ankara, Turkey. 

Turkey's main opposition party will struggle to gain traction amid legal battle and deepening internal divisions, freeing up the ruling party to consider returning to more unorthodox economic policies ahead of the 2028 election.

Turkey's Opposition Struggles To Stay United in the Face of Legal Strife

Latest

Venezuela

Abelardo de la Espriella, who has since been declared president-elect, waves to supporters after casting his vote during the runoff election on June 21, 2026, in Barranquilla, Colombia. 

De la Espriella's administration will reverse many of the outgoing government's security, economic and social policies, restoring a hard-line anti-crime approach and deepening ties with the United States.

What de la Espriella's Victory Means for Colombia

Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez speaks with journalists following a session at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) regarding the Essequibo region in The Hague on May 11. 

Risk-tolerant investors stand to benefit from unprecedented regulatory changes and direct resource access, but face the risk of reforms being unwound by a future Venezuelan government.


Venezuela's Outlook and Implications for Strategic Sectors, 6 Months After Maduro's Capture

Indonesia

The logo of Danantara Indonesia, the country's second sovereign wealth fund, is seen at its headquarters in Jakarta on March 31, 2026. 

Indonesia's new commodity oversight regime marks a major expansion of state control over strategic exports, but fiscal pressure, investor unease and street protests will likely push a softer monitoring model short of a full state takeover.

Managing Uncertainty Under Indonesia's Evolving Export Control Regime

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer poses with his wife Victoria at the door to 10 Downing Street after making a statement on his future outside 10 Downing Street on the morning of June 22, 2026, in London. 

While a swift leadership transition by mid-July could restore near-term political stability, investors will focus on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer's successor will be able to successfully balance party unity with fiscal discipline.


Burnham Premiership Could Stabilize U.K. Politics, But Markets Remain Cautious

Brazil

A passerby walks past the Banco Master building in Sao Paulo on Jan. 22, 2026, after Brazil's central bank ordered its shutdown due to a major liquidity crunch and "serious violations" of financial regulations.

Brazil faces severe institutional friction and heightened market volatility as a widening investigation into massive financial fraud threatens to ensnare prominent politicians, justices and businesspeople.

Deepening Corruption Scandal Could Upend Brazilian Presidential Race

People pass by a building in Ramat Gan, Israel, that was destroyed by an Iranian ballistic missile on May 5, 2026. 

Recent direct strikes between Israel and Iran did not immediately collapse the regional truce, but recurrent tit-for-tat escalations would reduce the chance of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Iran-Israel Escalation Threatens Negotiations To End Iran War

North Korea

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) gestures to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before a military parade in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3, 2025. 

North Korea's growing relations with Russia and potential reengagement with the U.S. appear to be driving China to pursue a rapprochement after years of diplomatic inaction.

Xi-Kim Summit Signals a Thaw in Long-Frozen Ties Between China and North Korea

Lebanon

Smoke rises following Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon as seen from a position across the border in the Upper Galilee in northern Israel on May 31, 2026.

Should Israel-Lebanon talks stall, the U.S. would be more likely to greenlight a broader campaign against Hezbollah, though it could also pressure Israel into a more comprehensive truce if Trump deems it necessary for an Iran deal.

U.S. Mediation Unlikely To Lead to Lasting Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

Australia

Fiji

Japan

(From left to right) Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hold a joint press conference after their Quad meeting in New Delhi on May 26, 2026.

The meeting proved the grouping is still functional, but it faces strong constraints in turning ambitious coordination frameworks into functional maritime, infrastructure, critical minerals and energy initiatives that blunt Chinese regional influence.

Takeaways From Quad Summit: New Initiatives, Enduring Constraints and Future Uncertainty

Columns

On Geopolitics

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Kazakhstan

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev concluded a visit to Brussels, Belgium, with a package of transport, aviation and minerals-related agreements, including $462 million in commercial transport and infrastructure deals, and a landmark Horizontal Aviation Agreement between Kazakhstan and the European Union, The Times of Central Asia reported on June 24.

Kazakhstan, EU: Tokayev Secures Transport and Aviation Deals in Brussels

Ukraine

Citing Ukrainian intelligence, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had begun pulling air defense systems from other regions and from occupied Ukrainian territory to reinforce the defense of Moscow and the Kerch Bridge, which links Crimea to Russia, Interfax-Ukraine reported on June 24.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Reallocates Air Defenses To Protect Capital and Kerch Bridge

In a 50-48 vote, the U.S. Senate approved a war powers resolution expressing the body's desire to curb U.S. military operations against Iran or compel U.S. President Donald Trump to seek congressional backing for any resumption of military operations against Iran, AP reported on June 23.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Senate Approves War Powers Resolution

Peru

With 99.79% of the ballots counted, Peruvian right-wing presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori has secured enough votes to win the presidency, Reuters reported on June 23.

Peru: Fujimori Secures Enough Votes To Win Runoff Election

South Sudan

African Union envoy and former Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete said South Sudan appeared prepared for its planned Dec. 22 general election following a five-day visit to Juba, according to South Sudan's foreign ministry, Radio Tamazuj reported on June 23. 

South Sudan: African Union Backs Election Preparations, Despite Political and Logistical Challenges

Czech Republic

Poland

Slovakia

Hungary

The prime ministers of the Visegrad Group -- Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic -- met for the first time in over two years near Budapest, hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar, AP reported on June 23.

Europe: Visegrad Group Revives With First Summit in Over Two Years

Science & Technology

What Happened: The European Union, Germany, the Netherlands and Greece joined Pax Silica, the U.S.-led initiative to build China-free supply chains for semiconductors, AI infrastructure and critical minerals, at the opening of a summit in Washington on June 23, the Financial Times reported the same day.

EU, U.S., China: Brussels Joins U.S.-Led Pax Silica Alliance 

Cyber

U.S.-China Relations

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick told corporate executives in a June 22 meeting that the Commerce Department was reviewing state-subsidized robotics imports and could take significant action against them once the review is completed.

China, U.S.: Commerce Secretary Lutnick Hints at Restrictions on Chinese Robots

Cuba

The U.S. government imposed additional sanctions on five Cuban state-owned companies, AP reported on June 23.

U.S., Cuba: U.S. Government Imposes Additional Sanctions on Cuban State Companies

Germany

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Afghanistan

A five-man Afghan Taliban delegation met with EU staff representing 15 member states in Brussels, Belgium, for closed-door talks on the logistics of repatriating Afghan migrants deported by European governments, AP reported on June 23.

Afghanistan, EU: Afghan Taliban, EU Meet in Brussels To Discuss Migrant Deportations

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

What de la Espriella's Victory Means for Colombia

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Kazakhstan, EU: Tokayev Secures Transport and Aviation Deals in Brussels

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Reallocates Air Defenses To Protect Capital and Kerch Bridge

U.S., Iran: U.S. Senate Approves War Powers Resolution

Peru: Fujimori Secures Enough Votes To Win Runoff Election

South Sudan: African Union Backs Election Preparations, Despite Political and Logistical Challenges

Europe: Visegrad Group Revives With First Summit in Over Two Years

EU, U.S., China: Brussels Joins U.S.-Led Pax Silica Alliance

China, U.S.: Commerce Secretary Lutnick Hints at Restrictions on Chinese Robots

U.S., Cuba: U.S. Government Imposes Additional Sanctions on Cuban State Companies

Afghanistan, EU: Afghan Taliban, EU Meet in Brussels To Discuss Migrant Deportations

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