Assessments

United States

Israel

Palestinian Territories

China

Russia

India

U.S. President Donald Trump (R) looks at Russia's President Vladimir Putin on Nov. 30, 2018, during the G20 Leaders' Summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to meet in the coming days.

Economics

Energy

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Trump-Putin Summit, the Deadline for a U.S.-China Tariff Pause

U.S.-China Relations

Media

South Africa

Podcasts

What does the country's latest corruption scandal mean for President Cyril Ramaphosa and South African politics? 

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for South Africa's Coalition Government

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

A 3D modeled town in the shape of the Chinese flag.

Trade tensions will exacerbate China's excess savings problems, but the economic situation will remain manageable

Beijing Grapples With Deflation, Overinvestment as Tariff Pressures Mount

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 7, 2025

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Supporters of Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik watch him speak in Banja Luka, Republika Srpska, on Feb. 26, 2025. 

Republika Srpska's separatist leader will likely defy a ruling to step down, causing institutional paralysis and Western backlash, but early elections or a unilateral declaration of independence are also possible.

The Potential Outcomes of Bosnia's Emerging Political Crisis

Bolivia

Bolivia's presidential candidates participate in a presidential debate in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, on Aug. 1, 2025.

Bolivia heads toward a political shift as voters prepare to oust the ruling left-wing MAS party amid economic woes, with right-wing candidates leading the polls ahead of pivotal August elections.

Economic Crisis Fuels Political Shakeup in Bolivia

Syria

Turkey

The new flag of Syria's interim government.

Parliamentary elections in September will cement Syrian leaders' power at the expense of many minority groups, deepening national fragmentation and heightening risks of violent unrest, particularly amid Israeli military intervention.

In Syria, Parliamentary Elections Will Deepen Political and Sectarian Divides

Israeli troops are seen deployed at the border with the Gaza Strip on July 23, 2025.

Reoccupying the Strip would be expensive and stir controversy at home and abroad, making the strategy politically difficult to sustain in the likely case that a new Israeli government is elected next year. 

The Fallout From an Israeli Reoccupation of Gaza

Europe

Employees work at a production line as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius attend the groundbreaking ceremony for a new munitions factory of German defense contractor Rheinmetall on Feb. 12, 2024, in Unterluess, Germany.

The Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loan facility will enable joint investment in critical capabilities -- such as missile defense, drones and military mobility -- while promoting joint procurement and cross-border collaboration.

How the EU's SAFE Loans Package Will Reshape Europe's Defense Industry

Germany

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Afghanistan

Pakistan

The flag of Afghanistan sits on the Afghan embassy in Moscow on July 4, 2025. 

As Afghanistan's neighbors deepen ties with the Taliban and Western states remain cautious, a widening diplomatic divide threatens to complicate efforts to address the country's worsening crises and regional security risks.

The Growing International Divide Over Taliban Ties Will Risk Regional Stability

The Geopolitics of Trade

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Protectionist and security-driven data regulations are impeding digital and physical trade, potentially slowing global economic growth and innovation.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Diverging Digital Governance Threatens Data Flows

Latest

An oil tanker train passes near a refinery in Guwahati, India, on March 30, 2023. 

For now, India will likely keep importing cheap Russian oil in the hopes it can soon secure tariff relief, either directly via a U.S. trade deal or indirectly via a breakthrough in U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine.

Will Trump's Tariffs Deter India From Buying Russian Oil?

Lebanon

Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem speaks from a stage surrounded by flags in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, on July 6, 2025. 

Lebanon's new push to disarm Hezbollah will prove challenging amid U.S. pressure, Israel's military assertiveness and Hezbollah's hardening stance, potentially leading to government instability and increased violence.

Can Lebanon Navigate the Minefield of Disarming Hezbollah?

Snapshots

Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrive at a press conference after their summit on July 16, 2018, in Helsinki, Finland.

The meeting risks sidelining Ukraine and enabling Russia to delay sanctions, consolidate battlefield gains, and advance its strategic interests through a U.S.-Russia peace framework.

What To Expect From the Upcoming Trump-Putin Summit

Maldives

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) shakes hands with Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu upon meeting in Male on July 25, 2025. 

Improving relations will strengthen India's strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean, while granting the Maldives access to crucial financial support.

Modi Resets Ties With the Maldives After Its 'India Out' Campaign

Morocco

A researcher from the International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA) examines crops in a cultivated field in Morocco on April 18, 2024.

Despite a temporary boost in crop yields from spring rainfall, Morocco's persistent drought and structural water shortages continue to threaten its agricultural sector, food security and economic stability ahead of the 2026 elections.

Rainfall Boosts Morocco's Crop Yields, But Long-Term Water Crisis Persists

Cote d'Ivoire

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara arrives at the Ebimpe Olympic Stadium on June 22, 2025, in Abidjan. 

President Ouattara's decision to seek a fourth term in Cote d'Ivoire's upcoming election, amid leading opposition candidates' inability to run, is fueling rising political tensions and increasing the risk of a post-election crisis.

Cote d'Ivoire Gears Up for a Heated Election Season 

Taiwan

A voter leaves a booth during voting for the recall election at a polling station in Taipei, Taiwan, on July 26, 2025. 

Its victory in the recall votes will embolden the opposition KMT to press on with controversial reforms and defense spending cuts, but it will also help prevent a near-term escalation of cross-strait tensions.

A Failed Recall Emboldens Taiwan's Opposition

The EU flag is seen on stacked cargo containers.

The framework deal avoids an escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs that would have strained both economies, but various unresolved issues could still reignite transatlantic trade tensions in the future.

New U.S.-EU Deal Averts Full-Blown Trade War -- For Now

Egypt

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly (center right) meets with Chinese Premier Li Qiang (center left) in Cairo on July 10, 2025.

In the coming years, Egypt will deepen its economic ties with China via increased trade and investment, while simultaneously maintaining its military alliance with the U.S. to address regional security concerns.

Egypt Navigates Its Needs for Chinese Investment and U.S. Military Support

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba addresses the media at the vote counting center in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headquarters in Tokyo on July 20, 2025.

Prime Minister Ishiba's days are likely numbered following his party's poor electoral performance, which will worsen policy gridlock and potentially weaken Tokyo's position in trade talks with Washington.

LDP's Defeat in Japan's Upper House Elections Will Stoke Political Instability

Columns

On Security

Mexico

DEA New York special agent in charge speaks to the press in New York City on Feb. 28, 2025, after the former leader of a brutal Mexican cartel, Rafael Caro Quintero, described by the White House as the world's ''most evil'' drug boss, pleaded not guilty to narcotics charges in New York.

Despite the political and diplomatic risks, Trump is more likely than not to launch some direct operations against Mexican cartels before he leaves office, potentially ranging from light and sporadic U.S. drone strikes to more extensive ground operations.

The Outlook for Trump's 'War' on Mexican Cartels

On Geopolitics

Lithuania

Finland

Latvia

Denmark

Estonia

Sweden

Poland

Norway

Belarus

A view in Rostock, Germany, of the first exit of warships for the NATO exercise BALTOPS in the Baltic Sea on June 5, 2025. 

In response to Russian aggression, NATO is seeking to establish strategic control over the Baltic Sea via rearmament and more assertive posturing, creating an environment where the risk of miscalculation grows exponentially.

Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021. 

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

Bahrain

Iran

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Iraq

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met at the White House for a summit hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump aimed at advancing a long-elusive peace deal, Reuters reported on Aug. 8.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: White House Summit Sparks New Momentum in Peace Process

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the phone on Aug. 8 at Putin's request, according to China's state-owned Xinhua.

China, Russia: Beijing Pressures Moscow for Progress on Ukraine Ceasefire

North Korea

South Korea

A spokesperson for South Korea's unification ministry said on Aug. 8 that, ahead of a U.S.-South Korea summit, the ministry is coordinating with Washington to support "peace on the Korean Peninsula and the resumption of inter-Korean ties."

South Korea, U.S.: Governments Consider Joint Pursuit of Peace With North Korea

Indian sources revealed that New Delhi has paused plans to acquire new U.S. weapons and aircraft, marking the first clear signal of the government's displeasure with U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to raise tariffs on Indian imports to 50%, Reuters reported on Aug. 8.

India: Government Halts Plans To Purchase U.S. Arms Following Trump's Tariff Hike

Science & Technology

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission approved new rules to accelerate the deployment and security of submarine cables, citing risks from adversaries and competitors like China, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 7.

U.S.: Federal Agency Approves New Rules for Submarine Cables

Colombia

Peru

Colombian President Gustavo Petro said his country does not recognize Peru's sovereignty over Santa Rosa Island on the Amazon River, while Peruvian President Dina Boluarte said the matter is not up for discussion, El Pais reported Aug. 7. 

Colombia, Peru: Territorial Dispute To Sour Diplomatic Relations but Have Limited Business Implications

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Japanese trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa said in Washington on Aug. 7 that his U.S. interlocutors had agreed to have President Donald Trump issue a new executive order in a "timely" manner clarifying the reduction in U.S. automobile tariffs on Japan and that new U.S. tariffs on Japan will not compound with old ones, The New York Times reported on Aug. 8. 

Japan, U.S.: Automobile Tariff Pledge a Much-Needed Win for Tokyo and Ishiba

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The leader of the Rwandan-backed M23, Bertrand Bisimwa, said the group had not been invited to begin direct peace negotiations with the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Doha, Qatar, scheduled to begin on Aug. 8, Reuters reported on Aug. 7.

Congo: Doubts Emerge Over Start of Direct Peace Talks With M23

Romania

Italy

Romanian authorities are investigating a suspected case of Russian sabotage involving the deliberate contamination of Azerbaijani crude bound for OMV Petrom's Petrobrazi refinery, G4media reported Aug. 7, citing sources close to the investigation.

Europe, Romania, Russia: Russia Suspected of Sabotage Behind Contaminated Batches of Azerbaijani Crude

The Israeli security cabinet approved a plan to take control over Gaza City on Aug. 8, but the full cabinet will still need to approve the plan, Reuters reported the same day.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israeli Security Cabinet Approves Gaza City Takeover Plan

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

What To Expect From the Upcoming Trump-Putin Summit

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Armenia, Azerbaijan: White House Summit Sparks New Momentum in Peace Process

China, Russia: Beijing Pressures Moscow for Progress on Ukraine Ceasefire

South Korea, U.S.: Governments Consider Joint Pursuit of Peace With North Korea

India: Government Halts Plans To Purchase U.S. Arms Following Trump's Tariff Hike

U.S.: Federal Agency Approves New Rules for Submarine Cables

Colombia, Peru: Territorial Dispute To Sour Diplomatic Relations but Have Limited Business Implications

Japan, U.S.: Automobile Tariff Pledge a Much-Needed Win for Tokyo and Ishiba

Congo: Doubts Emerge Over Start of Direct Peace Talks With M23

Europe, Romania, Russia: Russia Suspected of Sabotage Behind Contaminated Batches of Azerbaijani Crude

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israeli Security Cabinet Approves Gaza City Takeover Plan

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