Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 18, 2025

Mali

Algeria

Anti-riot police officers on April 8 in front of the Algerian Embassy in Bamako, Mali. While a full-scale military conflict remains very unlikely, Mali's legal challenge against Algeria ensures that diplomatic and security friction will define the relationship for the foreseeable future.

Military & Security

Politics

While a full-scale military conflict remains very unlikely, Mali's legal challenge against Algeria ensures that diplomatic and security friction will define the relationship for the foreseeable future.

Mali's ICJ Case Against Algeria Will Deepen Diplomatic Standoff in the Sahel

Columns

On Geopolitics

Egypt

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Syria

Turkey

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

From left to right, Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin listen as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting on Aug. 26, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

As federal agencies tasked with countering foreign threats are defunded and social media giants relax their rules, the U.S. information space is becoming significantly more vulnerable to state-sponsored manipulation.

U.S. Digital Defenses Weaken, Opening the Door for Nation-State Operations

Chile

Israel

Qatar

Europe

United Kingdom

Russia

Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani addresses a press conference following Israeli strikes in Doha on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Economics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Qatar Hosts an Arab-Islamic Summit, EU Announces New Sanctions on Russia

U.S.-China Relations

Media

Podcasts

Essential Geopolitics: What Gabbard's ODNI Cuts Mean for Corporate Security

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Iran

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A picture taken from a distance shows the damaged building (L) in the Qatari compound housing members of Hamas' political bureau on Sept. 10, 2025. Israel targeted the building the previous day in a strike in Qatar's capital, Doha. 

Israel's Sept. 9 airstrikes in Qatar will likely harden the stances of Iranian-backed groups, keep normalization with Saudi Arabia off the table and drive more assertive postures from other regional states.

The Regional Implications of Israel's Strikes in Qatar

On Security

Police tape hangs in front of Utah Valley University following the fatal shooting of political activist Charlie Kirk during an event at the campus Sept. 12, 2025 in Orem, Utah. The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Political Instability & Social Unrest

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Charlie Kirk's Assassination: The Latest Chapter in America's Long History of Political Violence

How does the Trump administration's stance toward the Fed differ from that of previous administrations?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Fed Independence

China

Kazakhstan

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev waits to greet foreign leaders during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states leaders' summit in Astana on July 4, 2024.

Despite President Tokayev's reform proposals, Kazakhstan's succession process will remain vulnerable to destabilizing forces, including elite rivalries and foreign influence.

How Kazakhstan's Proposed Reforms Will Impact the Question of Succession

A vehicle in a U.S. military convoy drives in Arbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.

The U.S. drawdown from Iraq will weaken Washington's direct influence while creating more space for Turkey to expand economically and Iran to gradually reassert itself through political and militia networks. 

Iraq's Shifting Power Dynamics After U.S. Withdrawal

Latest

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani chairing a preparatory meeting in Doha on Sept. 14, 2025, ahead of an Arab Islamic summit.

The Sept. 9 strike on Qatar has amplified doubts among Gulf states about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees and Washington's ability to restrain its regional allies.

Israeli Strike on Qatar Prompts GCC States To Question Future of Regional Security

Mexico

France

Portugal

Spain

Italy

An anti-tourism protest in June in Barcelona, Spain. Anti-tourism sentiment is certain to grow in major tourist destinations, though it will be unevenly distributed globally, particularly as the tourism sector could face potential challenges in the future.

Social Issues

Anti-tourism sentiment is certain to grow in major tourist destinations, though it will be unevenly distributed globally, particularly as the tourism sector could face potential challenges in the future.

The Causes and Implications of the Rise in Anti-Tourism Sentiment

Snapshots

Poland

Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's drone incursion into Poland highlights Moscow's increasing willingness to test Western resolve as it continues mass airstrikes on Ukraine, prepares for war games in Belarus and negotiations to end the war are stalled. 


Russian Drones Crossing into Poland Risk Escalation with NATO

Nepal

Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption. 

Despite the prime minister's resignation and the lifting of a controversial social media ban, risks of violent unrest will likely persist as long-standing political instability deepens.

Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation

Palestinian Territories

Smoke billows after explosions in Qatar's capital of Doha on Sept. 9. The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

Israel's Attack on Hamas' Political Leadership Scrambles Qatar's Regional Role

France's then-Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (C) delivers his general policy statement during an extraordinary parliamentary session prior to a confidence vote over the government's austerity budget at the National Assembly in Paris on Sept. 8, 2025.

Spending cuts proposed by the ousted prime minister and the prospect of further austerity measures have energized a new grassroots movement, raising the specter of another yellow vest-style uprising.

In France, Prime Minister Bayrou's Ouster Deepens Political Paralysis and Fiscal Uncertainty

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba attends a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office on Sept. 6, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan.

Japan's leadership contest will threaten to split the ruling party as conservative and reformer factions compete to place their leaders in the country's highest office.

In Japan, Ishiba's Resignation Sparks a Volatile Party Leadership Contest

Global Elections

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer departs 10 Downing Street on Sept. 3 in London. The Labour Party's deputy leadership contest will intensify internal party criticism of Starmer ahead of a politically painful budget in November.

The Labour Party's deputy leadership contest will intensify internal party criticism of Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of a politically painful budget in November. 

The Contest for Deputy Leader of UK Labour Will Intensify the Party's Woes

India

Participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 pose for photos in Tianjin, China, on Sept. 1, 2025.

Energy

Global Trade

U.S. trade uncertainty will help China deepen trade ties with its Central Asian neighbors and infrastructure ties with Russia, but its relations with India will remain inhibited by border disputes and differing defense priorities.

China Positions Itself as Growth Catalyst for Central Asia at SCO Summit

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a meeting on May 14, 2015, in Xian, China. 

While Trump-era tariff pressures offer a new economic incentive for cooperation, Beijing and New Delhi are unlikely to fully normalize ties due to enduring strategic and security concerns.

Despite Modest Improvement, India-China Relations Face Enduring Challenges

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

A person holds a smartphone showing an interface introducing OpenAI's new GPT-5 model in the ChatGPT app in front of a blurred OpenAI logo on Aug. 9, 2025, in Chongqing, China. 

Despite users' disappointment with the lack of conversational improvements, GPT-5 signifies a shift in AI development from basic chatbots to more advanced agentic systems, capable of complex, multi-step tasks.

GPT-5 and the Evolution of AI

South Sudan

Chad

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Uganda

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters near Air Force One at the airport in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 3, 2025. Trump answered questions about his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, among other topics. 

While the Trump administration's outreach to Russia may yield limited cooperation, a comprehensive ''reset'' is unlikely for the foreseeable future due to Moscow and Washington's diverging strategic interests.

Can Trump Reset U.S.-Russia Relations?

ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said the company had no plans to reenter Russia, emphasizing it is only seeking compensation for $4.6 billion in the seized Sakhalin-1 assets, the Financial Times reported on Sept. 18. 

Russia: ExxonMobil Rules Out Return to Russia Despite Kremlin Push

Nigeria

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu announced the lifting of a state of emergency in the country's southern Rivers state from Sept. 18 as well as the reinstatement of suspended Gov. Siminalayi Fubara, Reuters reported on Sept. 17. 

Nigeria: Tinubu Scraps State of Emergency in Rivers State

China's youth (aged 16-24) unemployment rate in August hit 18.9%, the highest since July 2023, when it hit 21.3%, The South China Morning Post reported on Sept. 18. 

China: Youth Unemployment Hits 18.9%, Highlighting Growth, Unrest Concerns 

Vietnam

Vietnam's Ministry of Public Security circulated a draft decree requiring expanded security vetting of investment projects across sectors including energy, telecommunications, industrial parks and even golf courses, Reuters reported on Sept. 18.

Vietnam: Draft Decree Expands Police Power Over Investment Projects

Large-scale anti-austerity demonstrations organized by all major unions occurred across France against planned spending cuts in the 2026 budget, and major protests are still taking place in Paris, Reuters reported on Sept. 18.

France: Nationwide Strikes Seek To Influence New Prime Minister's Budget Proposal

Canada

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will hold a one-on-one meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and another meeting with Mexican business leaders during a two-day visit to Mexico City, Global News reported on Sept. 18.

Canada, Mexico: Ottawa and Mexico City Seek To Boost Trade and Align Positions Ahead of USMCA Renegotiation

Maldives

Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu ratified a contentious media law that permits heavy fines and the suspension or even permanent shutdown of outlets found in violation of its provisions, AP reported on Sept. 18.

Maldives: Controversial Media Law Ratified by Maldives President

Pakistan

On Sept. 17, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan announced that they had signed a mutual defense pact that considers an attack against one of them to be an attack against both and implies that Saudi Arabia is under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella, AP reported on Sept. 18. 

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan: Governments Sign Mutual Defense Pact

Two Israelis were killed when a reported aid worker ambushed them at the Allenby Bridge Crossing between Jordan and the West Bank, The Times of Israel reported on Sept. 18, citing the Israeli military.

Israel, Gaza: Aid Worker Reportedly Kills Two Israelis at Allenby Bridge Crossing

Science & Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose ahead of a meeting in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018. 

As Putin and Trump prepare to meet in Alaska, the main risk for Ukraine is a U.S.-Russia deal that cements major territorial losses while offering weak security guarantees, leaving it vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

Putin-Trump Summit: The Risks for Ukraine

DEA New York special agent in charge speaks to the press in New York City on Feb. 28, 2025, after the former leader of a brutal Mexican cartel, Rafael Caro Quintero, described by the White House as the world's ''most evil'' drug boss, pleaded not guilty to narcotics charges in New York.

Despite the political and diplomatic risks, Trump is more likely than not to launch some direct operations against Mexican cartels before he leaves office, potentially ranging from light and sporadic U.S. drone strikes to more extensive ground operations.

The Outlook for Trump's 'War' on Mexican Cartels

Vice President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas revealed plans to downgrade trade relations with Israel and sanction high-ranking Israeli officials over Israel's policies in Gaza, Politico reported on Sept. 17. 

EU, Israel: EU Plans To Downgrade Trade Ties, Impose Sanctions Over Israel's Gaza Policies

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Israeli Strike on Qatar Prompts GCC States To Question Future of Regional Security

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia: ExxonMobil Rules Out Return to Russia Despite Kremlin Push

Nigeria: Tinubu Scraps State of Emergency in Rivers State

China: Youth Unemployment Hits 18.9%, Highlighting Growth, Unrest Concerns

Vietnam: Draft Decree Expands Police Power Over Investment Projects

France: Nationwide Strikes Seek To Influence New Prime Minister's Budget Proposal

Canada, Mexico: Ottawa and Mexico City Seek To Boost Trade and Align Positions Ahead of USMCA Renegotiation

Maldives: Controversial Media Law Ratified by Maldives President

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan: Governments Sign Mutual Defense Pact

Israel, Gaza: Aid Worker Reportedly Kills Two Israelis at Allenby Bridge Crossing

EU, Israel: EU Plans To Downgrade Trade Ties, Impose Sanctions Over Israel's Gaza Policies

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