Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 18, 2025

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

Cyber

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Ukraine

Russia

A stock photo shows banknotes of the Russian ruble. 

The European Union using immobilized Russian assets to fund financial support for Ukraine will probably not have major reputational or financial consequences for the eurozone.


Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Unlikely To Majorly Impact the Euro

South Africa

Chile

France

The Ukrainian flag is projected on the facade of Berlaymont, the European Commission headquarters, in Brussels on Nov. 18 to commemorate the Nov. 18, 2024, Russian invasion of Ukraine.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A European Council Decision on Ukraine Financing, South Africa Braces for Commission Findings

Tunisia

Tunisia's President Kais Saied (top-R) waits to take his oath of office during his swearing-in ceremony before the National Assembly in Tunis on Oct. 21, 2024. 

Despite tensions with union leaders, Tunisia's controversial finance bill will introduce reforms that attract foreign investment and increase production in key sectors.

Strikes Loom as Tunisia's Government Undermines Labor Union

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.

Worsening tensions over sea access and Eritrea's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government raise the risk of intensifying proxy clashes that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation.

Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Yemen

Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.

If effective, the laser air defense system will significantly reduce the cost of intercepting short-range aerial threats and bolster Israel's multilayered protection against aerial attacks.


The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 11, 2025

Jordanian police close the entrance of a Muslim Brotherhood headquarters on April 23, 2025, in Amman, Jordan.

While the White House has initiated a review process to label the Muslim Brotherhood a Foreign Terrorist Organization, it is unlikely to result in a comprehensive ban on the group.

U.S. Unlikely To Broadly Designate Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization

China

Philippines

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

Media

Podcasts

How could advancements in AI increase the threat of state-sponsored cyber activity?

Essential Geopolitics: The Role of AI in State-Sponsored Cyber Espionage Campaigns

Latest

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

YemenYemenis rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council on Dec. 14, 2025.

Escalating tensions and potential violence between the Southern Transitional Council and Saudi-backed forces create security vacuums that Houthi rebels will likely exploit.



Yemen's Anti-Houthi Bloc Is Fracturing

Mozambique

Republic of the Congo

Somalia

Syria

Afghanistan

A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.

The Islamic State's main threat to the West in 2026 will remain its ability to inspire lone-actor violence, though in the coming years the group's African, Afghan and Syrian branches may become increasingly capable of directing mass casualty attacks in Western countries.

The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West

Algeria

People walk through a main square in Algeria's capital of Algiers on Sept. 15, 2024.

By introducing Sharia-compliant debt instruments, the Algerian government aims to tap into significant informal savings and diversify its funding sources while avoiding external debt. 

Algeria's Islamic Bonds an Incomplete Step Toward Diversifying Government Revenues

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Global Trade

Despite growing interest from Russia, China and Western powers, Central Asia will struggle to emerge as a true continental trade hub due to competing agendas, weak financing and coordination, and security and governance issues.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty

Snapshots

Venezuela

The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.

Increased military mobilizations, failed negotiations with Maduro and persistent aggressive rhetoric suggest the Trump administration will likely soon escalate its Caribbean military campaign to targeted strikes in Venezuelan territory.

The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

Iraq

Iraqi riot police walk past a screen displaying a portrait of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during celebrations by his supporters following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The Nov. 11 elections produced another fragmented legislature where Iranian-backed parties still have significant influence, portending contentious government formation talks that could impede policymaking and trigger armed clashes.

Iraq Braces for Another Turbulent Government Formation Process

Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut. Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires.

Miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would, however, increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting. 

Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold

Ukrainian artillerymen operate a U.S.-made M-114 howitzer near Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Oct. 16, 2025.

Trump has given Ukraine until Nov. 27 to accept a plan that would freeze the war on terms favorable to Moscow, or face U.S. aid cuts. But Kyiv is unlikely to accede, instead relying on European support to continue fighting.

Ukraine Likely To Reject Trump's Peace Plan Ultimatum, Prolonging the War

Honduras

View of a Honduran national flag at La Laguna neighborhood, in the north of Tegucigalpa, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

Honduras' next government will face legislative gridlock, political instability and unrest, regardless of the victor.

The Challenges Facing Honduras' Upcoming General Election

Global Elections

Morocco

A man rides past a roundabout adorned with Moroccan national flags in Laayoune, the main city of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, on Nov. 7, 2025.

Although Morocco's sovereignty plan is gaining momentum, the unresolved conflict will continue to complicate the region's development and fuel sporadic clashes.

U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

U.S.-China Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

On Security

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Turkey

Indonesia

Thailand

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

India

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

Japan

Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held talks with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Emperor Naruhito during his first official visit to Japan, Kazinform reported on Dec. 19.

Kazakhstan, Japan: Tokayev Visit Elevates Ties at Inaugural Central Asia Plus Japan Summit

During a 4.5-hour end-of-year press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated that Moscow would only end the war in Ukraine if Kyiv abandoned its bid to join NATO and withdrew from all territories claimed by Russia, Reuters reported on Dec. 19.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Digs In on Maximalist Peace Terms Ahead of Miami Talks

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Dec. 18 that the bloc's trade deal with Mercosur would not be signed as previously scheduled on Dec. 20, with the approval delayed until January 2026, Politico reported on Dec. 18. 

EU, South America: EU Announces Delay to Mercosur Trade Agreement

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, a global hunger monitor, wrote in an assessment that there was no longer a famine in the Gaza Strip, Reuters reported on Dec. 19.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Global Hunger Monitor Declares Famine Is No Longer Present in Gaza

Sudan

Egypt

Science & Technology

Following a meeting between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the Egyptian presidential office issued a statement on Dec. 18 that outlined a series of "red lines" regarding Sudan's civil war, namely the preservation of Sudan's territorial integrity, the rejection of parallel government entities and the preservation of state institutions.

Egypt: Cairo Outlines 'Red Lines' in Sudan, Secures SAF Support on Nile Tensions

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu presented the 58.18 trillion naira ($40 billion) budget for 2026 to a joint session of the National Assembly, with 5.41 trillion naira for defense and internal security, the single largest sectoral allocation, 6.0 trillion naira for education and health care, and 3.52 trillion naira for infrastructure, The Punch reported on Dec. 19.

Nigeria: Tinubu Presents 2026 Budget to National Assembly

The Japanese government publicly reaffirmed that it will not possess, produce or permit the introduction of nuclear weapons in its territory, Reuters reported on Dec. 19.

Japan: Prime Minister Reaffirms Nonnuclear Policy

Ghana

Ghana's government approved the creation of a 1 billion Ghanaian cedi
($86.85 million) Bawku Revitalisation Fund to rebuild the town of Bawku in the Upper East region following intercommunal violence, News Ghana reported on Dec. 19.

Ghana: Government Commits Nearly $87M To Restore Bawku Amid Intercommunal Clashes

French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said France would not be able to adopt a 2026 budget before year-end after a joint committee of senators and lower house lawmakers representing different parliamentary groups failed to reach a compromise, Reuters reported on Dec. 19.

France: Government Fails To Adopt 2026 Budget, Setting Stage for Temporary Rollover

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Yemen's Anti-Houthi Bloc Is Fracturing

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Kazakhstan, Japan: Tokayev Visit Elevates Ties at Inaugural Central Asia Plus Japan Summit

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Digs In on Maximalist Peace Terms Ahead of Miami Talks

EU, South America: EU Announces Delay to Mercosur Trade Agreement

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Global Hunger Monitor Declares Famine Is No Longer Present in Gaza

Egypt: Cairo Outlines 'Red Lines' in Sudan, Secures SAF Support on Nile Tensions

Nigeria: Tinubu Presents 2026 Budget to National Assembly

Japan: Prime Minister Reaffirms Nonnuclear Policy

Ghana: Government Commits Nearly $87M To Restore Bawku Amid Intercommunal Clashes

France: Government Fails To Adopt 2026 Budget, Setting Stage for Temporary Rollover

EU, Ukraine: EU Loan for Ukraine Defers Use of Frozen Russian Assets

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support