Assessments

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

India

Pakistan

People gather around an army air defense system on display at a military exhibition in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Aug. 14, 2025.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

While they could unlock economic and strategic gains, Pakistan's new defense pacts with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will also increase its military's role in domestic policymaking and Islamabad's exposure to regional conflicts.

The Implications of Pakistan's Growing Defense Ties in the Middle East

Snapshots

United States

China

Indonesia

Japan

Philippines

Taiwan

Crew members on a Chinese navy ship wave as they prepare to dock at Indonesia's Tanjung Perak Port on Aug. 2, 2026. 

China's recent naval drill with Indonesia appears aimed at asserting de facto jurisdiction around Taiwan, raising the risk of at-sea clashes and increased tensions with the U.S., Japan and the Philippines.

China's Latest Drills Near Taiwan Aim To Assert De Facto Jurisdiction

U.S.-China Relations

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 13, 2026

Colombia

Rescuers and volunteers search for survivors under a collapsed building in Pereira, Colombia, on Aug. 11, 2026, following a magnitude 7.4 earthquake.

Environment, Science & Technology

The magnitude 7.4 earthquake will test President Abelardo de la Espriella's nascent administration, while simultaneously exacerbating fiscal and security challenges and creating significant operational and compliance risks for businesses.

Colombia's New Government Faces an Early Test After Major Earthquake

Syria

A Russian aircraft takes off from an airport in northeastern Syria's Hasakah province on Jan. 27, 2026. 

Syria's cooperation with the U.S. to remove nuclear materials and reduce Russian military influence will support its reconstruction efforts, but security challenges will continue to hinder major infrastructure projects.

Syria's Pro-U.S. Policy Shift May Secure Sanctions Relief, but Challenges Persist

Europe

Lithuania

Latvia

Poland

Belarus

Russia

A Latvian border guard patrols along the fence at the Belarusian border near Krivanda, eastern Latvia, on Aug. 8, 2023.

Migration pressure orchestrated by Belarus is shifting toward Latvia and driving the adoption of sophisticated tunnel-smuggling tactics that will test EU resilience.

Belarus's Hybrid Migration Tactics Shift Pressure to Latvia

Nigeria

Zambia

Iran

Morocco

Oman

Spain

Migrants wait to receive water on a beach in the North African Spanish enclave of Ceuta on Aug. 2, 2026.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Extreme Weather in China and Europe, More Migrant Crossings Into Spain

Media

Australia

Fiji

Solomon Islands

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Podcasts

Who are the main players, and what are the primary frameworks holding it all together?

The Decision Advantage: The Security Architecture of the Pacific Islands

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Ukraine

The parliament building is seen through a European flag during a demonstration against a judicial reform pushed by lawmakers of the ruling Law and Justice party on Jan. 23, 2020, in Warsaw, Poland. 

Social Issues

Poland's right-wing opposition parties remain well-positioned to win a majority in the 2027 general election, though growing fragmentation among these parties will hinder postelection coalition talks, potentially leading to a government that includes far-right elements.

How Poland's Right-Wing Split Alters the 2027 Election Landscape

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 6, 2026

Greenland

Denmark

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Energy

Greenland's large deposits of critical minerals make the island one of the few potential alternatives to Chinese supply chains, but material constraints and diplomatic disputes will obstruct large-scale production.

The West's Quest To Exploit Greenland's Critical Minerals

Latest

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during the Workers' Party national convention in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Aug. 2, 2026.

Regardless of who wins the presidency in October, Congress's growing control over budget allocation will likely increase institutional friction, fragment procurement processes and hinder pro-business policymaking.

Brazil's Presidential Race Reflects a Deeper Shift in Political Dynamics

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference in Washington, D.C., on July 29, 2026. 

Changes to the central bank's inflation, balance sheet and communication strategies could increase financial market volatility, though the Fed's commitment to price stability will remain intact.

Previewing Potential U.S. Fed Policy Changes Under Warsh 

A Spanish soldier escorts a group of migrants on their way back towards the Moroccan border, following their illegal crossing into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, on Aug. 1, 2026.

Spain and Morocco's heightened security measures will likely thwart online efforts to organize another mass migration attempt, though smaller border breaches remain possible.

The Risk of a Second Migration Surge Into Spain's Ceuta

Cambodia

Thailand

A Thai soldier stands guard at a damaged border crossing point between Surin province's Chong Chom and O'Smach town on the Thai-Cambodian border, on March 12, 2026.

The Thai-Cambodian ceasefire will likely hold throughout 2026, but competing territorial claims, domestic politics and stalled diplomacy will prevent broader normalization.

Thailand and Cambodia Maintain an Uneasy Ceasefire

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (center) chats with U.S. senators before heading to a closed-door meeting at the U.S. Capitol on July 28, 2026. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If enacted, the proposed bill would give Trump broad new authority to impose tariffs on major Russian oil buyers, but selective enforcement means it would unlikely compel Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

New U.S. Sanctions Bill Unlikely To Impact Russia's Oil Exports or War Strategy

Brunei Darussalam

Timor-Leste

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Singapore

Vietnam

Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro (center) and other leaders leave after a group photo session on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila on July 24, 2026.

The meetings in Manila produced talks but no immediate collective action on critical regional issues like the Iran war's energy shock, intensifying South China Sea tensions and the Myanmar civil war.

ASEAN Meetings Make Little Headway on Pressing Energy and Security Issues

Chile

Chilean lawmakers in Congress celebrate at the end of the voting session on the economic reform bill on July 21, 2026.

Chile is poised to soon enact one of its broadest economic reform packages in decades, which will likely boost investor confidence and regulatory certainty, but at the expense of rising fiscal pressures.

What To Expect as Chile Prepares to Enact Sweeping Economic Reform Bill

Columns

On Security

This photo illustration shows the ChatGPT logo at an office in Washington, D.C., on March 15, 2023.

The autonomous targeting of Hugging Face by OpenAI's models highlights the urgent need for organizations to prepare for advanced cyberattacks orchestrated entirely by AI agents.

Beyond the Hype of Autonomous AI Breaches

On Geopolitics

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

U.S.-Iran Relations

Israel

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Lebanon

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Power outages struck southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on Aug. 14 after an abrupt change in cross-border power flows activated emergency protections and separated parts of the interconnected Central Asian grid, Reuters reported on Aug. 14. 

Central Asia: Regional Blackout Will Spur Efforts To Modernize Grid, but Cascading Outage Risk Will Persist

Taiwan's Legislative Yuan Speaker Han Kuo-yu announced that the annual budget for fiscal year 2026 had finally passed its third reading, ending a delay of 266 days, UDN reported on Aug. 14.

Taiwan: 2026 Budget Passes as Opposition Differences Grow

Argentina

Argentina's Central Bank will relax restrictions on onshore dollar lending and allow banks to increase foreign currency credit to companies with revenue in pesos, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 13.

Argentina: Central Bank Eases Restrictions on Dollar Lending for Companies

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced plans for a commodity exchange to establish Indonesian reference prices by early 2027 as he presented a $230 billion budget targeting 6% growth and a 2.4% fiscal deficit, the Financial Times reported on Aug. 14. 

Indonesia: Jakarta Scales Back Commodity Export Centralization

The Electoral Commission of Zambia announced that it suspended vote counting for the country's Aug. 13 general election following the theft of paper ballots and violence against some of its officials before resuming the count several hours later, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 14.

Zambia: Electoral Commission Briefly Paused Vote Count as Opposition Claims Victory 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States plans to unveil more extensive economic measures against Iran during the week of Aug. 17, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 14.

U.S., Iran: U.S. To Unveil Additional Economic Measures Against Iran 

Chad

Chadian President Mahamat Deby Itno on Aug. 14 signed two decrees granting a full presidential pardon to opposition leader and former Prime Minister Succes Masra and eight other political figures, following his announcement four days earlier that he would pardon certain prisoners, Jeune Afrique reported on the same day.

Chad: President Pardons Main Opposition Leader and Eight Other Political Figures

Ethiopia

Sudan

Egypt

Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, claimed to have recaptured the strategic border town of Kurmuk from the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, Sudan Tribune reported on Aug. 13.

Sudan: RSF Recaptures Kurmuk Border Town Amid Allegations of Ethiopian Aerial Support 

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the Israeli Defense Forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, Reuters reported on Aug. 13. 

Lebanon, Israel: Israel Ties Withdrawal to Hezbollah Disarmament, Eyes New Military Operation

Science & Technology

Yemen

People in Sanaa, Yemen, stand under a large screen broadcasting Houthi-run coastguard forces patrolling in the Red Sea on March 13, 2026.

If economic concessions and limited military action fail to halt the Houthis' Red Sea blockade, the Saudis may pursue ground operations in Yemen, risking Iranian strikes and a renewed military quagmire.

Escalating Houthi Attacks Force Saudi Arabia To Shift Its Strategy

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Iraq

Libya

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

North Korea

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 13 visited Etorofu/Iturup Island, one of the four Northern Territories claimed by Japan in the Kuril Islands, which Russia has occupied since just after World War II, Reuters reported.

Japan, Russia: Putin Visits Disputed Kurils, Highlights Worsening Ties

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

The Risk of a Second Migration Surge Into Spain's Ceuta

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Central Asia: Regional Blackout Will Spur Efforts To Modernize Grid, but Cascading Outage Risk Will Persist

Taiwan: 2026 Budget Passes as Opposition Differences Grow

Argentina: Central Bank Eases Restrictions on Dollar Lending for Companies

Indonesia: Jakarta Scales Back Commodity Export Centralization

Zambia: Electoral Commission Briefly Paused Vote Count as Opposition Claims Victory

U.S., Iran: U.S. To Unveil Additional Economic Measures Against Iran

Chad: President Pardons Main Opposition Leader and Eight Other Political Figures

Sudan: RSF Recaptures Kurmuk Border Town Amid Allegations of Ethiopian Aerial Support

Lebanon, Israel: Israel Ties Withdrawal to Hezbollah Disarmament, Eyes New Military Operation

Japan, Russia: Putin Visits Disputed Kurils, Highlights Worsening Ties

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