Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 28, 2025

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks after the Presidential Cabinet meeting on May 12, 2025, in Istanbul, Turkey.

Military & Security

Politics

The process remains fragile amid the risk of stalled progress on the PKK's disarmament, the lingering threat of Kurdish militant attacks, and the potential for empty government promises.

Threats to the Turkish-Kurdish Peace Process

Norway

The building housing Norway's parliament is seen on May 17, 2025, in Oslo.

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

The Sept. 8 vote could result in another left-wing coalition focused on welfare and climate, a right-wing coalition focused on tax cuts and oil production, or perhaps even an unprecedented grand coalition between the country's two largest parties.

Norway's Legislative Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Myanmar

A photo taken on Jan. 11, 2022, shows soldiers from the Taaung National Liberation Army (TNLA), a Palaung ethnic armed group, gathering in Myanmar's northern Shan state.

The junta's recent announcements portend intensified violence ahead of what will be highly controlled elections, which will further fragment the war-torn nation but may also help ease its international isolation.

Myanmar's Elections and the Military's Quest for Legitimacy

France

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou speaks during a press conference in Paris on Aug. 25, 2025. 

In the likely case that the Prime Minister Bayrou loses the Sept. 8 vote, Macron will either have to appoint another weak government or call early legislative elections, prolonging political instability and heightening financial risks.

New Political Crisis Grips France as Bayrou Gambles on Confidence Vote

Guyana

A picture of the National Assembly building in Georgetown, Guyana, taken on Sept. 23, 2022.

No matter who wins Guyana's Sept. 1 election, the next administration will use oil revenue and foreign investment to increase social spending and infrastructure development.

Guyana's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez addresses lawmakers during a plenary session at the Spanish parliament in Madrid on July 9, 2025. 

The prime minister's Socialist-led government will likely survive in the short term, but ongoing policy paralysis, corruption scandals and public discontent could trigger early elections, potentially bringing the far right to power.

Sanchez's Mounting Political Challenges Spell Trouble for Spain

Iran

South Korea

Taiwan

Thailand

Germany

United Kingdom

The Maanshan nuclear power plant is seen next to a beach in Pingtung, in southern Taiwan, on April 29, 2025.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iran Meets With European Powers, Taiwan Holds a Nuclear Referendum

Snapshots

Bangladesh

Supporters of Bangladesh's Jamaat-e-Islami party wave the national flag in Dhaka during a rally held to call for the introduction of a proportional representation system in the country's forthcoming general election on July 19, 2025. 

While delays remain possible, the interim government will likely hold elections in February 2026 as promised, paving the way for a functioning parliament and the implementation of key reforms.

A Set Election Date Eases Political Uncertainty in Bangladesh

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Mining and Industry Minister Bandar Al-Khorayef addresses the Future Mineral Forum in Riyadh on Jan. 10, 2024. 

Despite recent deals, the kingdom's mining sector will struggle to secure the level of investment needed to accomplish its Vision 2030 goals, though certain minerals adjacent to oil production, like lithium, are poised for greater growth.

The Challenges and Opportunities in Saudi Arabia's Mining Sector

Central African Republic

Rwanda

Russia

Members of the Unity for Peace in the Central African Republic (UPC) rebel group gather at the DDR (disarmament, demobilization and reintegration) site in Maloum, the Central African Republic, on July 24. 2025.

The dissolution of key rebel groups and the reintegration of ex-fighters could stabilize the country after years of conflict, but the process will remain fragile amid funding challenges and potential attacks from non-signatories.

Central African Republic's New Peace Deal Holds Promise, but Challenges Persist

Latest

Djibouti

Somalia

The flag of Somaliland is seen during a political rally in Hargeisa on Nov. 8, 2024.

The United States is growing more likely to recognize Somaliland's statehood to secure basing rights in the territory, which would likely roil U.S.-Somalia relations and risk plunging Somalia into crisis.

Assessing the Prospect of the U.S. Recognizing Somaliland's Independence

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

Diverse security risks threaten maritime chokepoints around the world, presenting unique challenges to international trade.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Threats to Maritime Chokepoints Endanger Global Trade, Part 1

China

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a meeting on May 14, 2015, in Xian, China. 

While Trump-era tariff pressures offer a new economic incentive for cooperation, Beijing and New Delhi are unlikely to fully normalize ties due to enduring strategic and security concerns.

Despite Modest Improvement, India-China Relations Face Enduring Challenges

The outside of the Federal Reserve Board building is seen in Washington, D.C.

If upheld, Trump's unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could dent the U.S. central bank's credibility and fuel market volatility.

The Implications of Trump's Latest Attack on Fed Independence

Workers at the Samsung plant in Sriperumbudur, India, stage a protest to demand higher wages and recognition of their union on Sept. 11, 2024. 

The labor reforms, aimed at streamlining regulations and attracting investment, face significant delays and uneven implementation due to political resistance, trade union opposition and state-level administrative challenges.

India's Labor Codes: Challenges to Nationwide Adoption

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the "Winning the AI Race" summit hosted by All‑In Podcast and Hill & Valley Forum at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium on July 23, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Relaxed U.S. export controls on key semiconductors will enable Chinese companies to accelerate their advancement of AI-focused chips.

How U.S. Export Concessions Could Boost China's AI Ambitions

U.S.-China Relations

Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrive at a press conference after their summit on July 16, 2018, in Helsinki, Finland.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The meeting risks sidelining Ukraine and enabling Russia to delay sanctions, consolidate battlefield gains, and advance its strategic interests through a U.S.-Russia peace framework.

What To Expect From the Upcoming Trump-Putin Summit

Maldives

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) shakes hands with Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu upon meeting in Male on July 25, 2025. 

Improving relations will strengthen India's strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean, while granting the Maldives access to crucial financial support.

Modi Resets Ties With the Maldives After Its 'India Out' Campaign

Columns

On Geopolitics

A person holds a smartphone showing an interface introducing OpenAI's new GPT-5 model in the ChatGPT app in front of a blurred OpenAI logo on Aug. 9, 2025, in Chongqing, China. 

Despite users' disappointment with the lack of conversational improvements, GPT-5 signifies a shift in AI development from basic chatbots to more advanced agentic systems, capable of complex, multi-step tasks.

GPT-5 and the Evolution of AI

South Sudan

Chad

Ethiopia

Sudan

Uganda

United Arab Emirates

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters near Air Force One at the airport in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 3, 2025. Trump answered questions about his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, among other topics. 

While the Trump administration's outreach to Russia may yield limited cooperation, a comprehensive ''reset'' is unlikely for the foreseeable future due to Moscow and Washington's diverging strategic interests.

Can Trump Reset U.S.-Russia Relations?

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose ahead of a meeting in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018. 

As Putin and Trump prepare to meet in Alaska, the main risk for Ukraine is a U.S.-Russia deal that cements major territorial losses while offering weak security guarantees, leaving it vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

Putin-Trump Summit: The Risks for Ukraine

On Security

Mexico

DEA New York special agent in charge speaks to the press in New York City on Feb. 28, 2025, after the former leader of a brutal Mexican cartel, Rafael Caro Quintero, described by the White House as the world's ''most evil'' drug boss, pleaded not guilty to narcotics charges in New York.

Despite the political and diplomatic risks, Trump is more likely than not to launch some direct operations against Mexican cartels before he leaves office, potentially ranging from light and sporadic U.S. drone strikes to more extensive ground operations.

The Outlook for Trump's 'War' on Mexican Cartels

Lithuania

Finland

Latvia

Denmark

Estonia

Sweden

Poland

Belarus

A view in Rostock, Germany, of the first exit of warships for the NATO exercise BALTOPS in the Baltic Sea on June 5, 2025. 

In response to Russian aggression, NATO is seeking to establish strategic control over the Baltic Sea via rearmament and more assertive posturing, creating an environment where the risk of miscalculation grows exponentially.

Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

Israel

Syria

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021. 

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

Bahrain

Oman

Qatar

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky outlined three pillars for Ukraine's security guarantees: sustained army funding and arms supplies, pledges to support Ukraine's accession to NATO, and continued sanctions and use of frozen Russian assets, Reuters reported on Aug. 29. 

Russia, Ukraine: Zelensky Lays Out Framework for Security Guarantees Following Russian Strike

North Korea

South Korea's central bank estimated on Aug. 29 that North Korea's economy grew by 3.7% in 2024, marking North Korea's fastest growth rate since 2016, Reuters reported on Aug. 29. 

North Korea: Economy Grows by 3.7%, Fastest in Eight Years, Aided by Russia

Canada

India and Canada appointed new high commissioners to each other's capitals, marking the restoration of diplomatic ties 10 months after both countries expelled one another's top envoys amid a dispute over an alleged political assassination, Reuters reported on Aug. 28.

Canada, India: Governments Restore Diplomatic Ties With Appointment of New Envoys

Brazil

Mexico and Brazil signed several cooperation agreements on trade, healthcare, agriculture and energy during Brazilian Vice President and Trade Minister Geraldo Alckmin's visit to Mexico City, La Jornada reported on Aug. 28.

Brazil, Mexico: Economic Cooperation To Improve Bilateral Ties but Have Limited Business Impacts

Indonesia

Protests in Jakarta escalated after a 21-year-old motorcycle taxi driver was struck by a police armored vehicle and died, the Jakarta Globe reported on Aug. 29. 

Indonesia: Protests Escalate, Turn Fatal

Cambodia

In a 6-3 ruling, Thailand's Constitutional Court removed suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office, the Bangkok Post reported on Aug. 29. 

Thailand: Court Removes Another Prime Minister

Palestinian Territories

Yemen

Israel Defense Forces attacks on Yemen's capital Sanaa and other cities likely killed Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi, The Times of Israel reported Aug. 29. Several other senior Houthi commanders were also reportedly killed in the attacks, which appeared to be separate from strikes a day earlier on the outskirts of Sanaa, which the IDF said targeted Houthi ministers.

Israel, Yemen: Israeli Strikes Likely Kill Houthi Prime Minister

Science & Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Iraq

Lebanon

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Tens of thousands of workers and students staged mass protests in Indonesia's capital Jakarta and 38 other cities, demanding higher wages, tax relief, stronger anti-corruption measures and parliament's resignation, among other things, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 28.

Indonesia: Protests Occur in 39 Cities

Philippines

Chinese coast guard vessels intercepted Philippine ships attempting to resupply a small contingent of marines stationed aboard the grounded BRP Sierra Madre at the Second Thomas Shoal, while also deploying a heavy tugboat likely intended to signal an ability to remove the vessel, the South China Morning Post reported on Aug. 28.

Philippines, China, Taiwan: Tensions Converge in South China Sea and Cross-Strait Arenas

Senegal

Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed to "strengthen" and "renew" relations between France and Senegal following a bilateral meeting in Paris, Radio France Internationale reported on Aug. 28. 

Senegal: Faye Indicates Plans To Strengthen Relationship With France Following Meeting With Macron

Media

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Assessing the Prospect of the U.S. Recognizing Somaliland's Independence

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Zelensky Lays Out Framework for Security Guarantees Following Russian Strike

North Korea: Economy Grows by 3.7%, Fastest in Eight Years, Aided by Russia

Canada, India: Governments Restore Diplomatic Ties With Appointment of New Envoys

Brazil, Mexico: Economic Cooperation To Improve Bilateral Ties but Have Limited Business Impacts

Indonesia: Protests Escalate, Turn Fatal

Thailand: Court Removes Another Prime Minister

Israel, Yemen: Israeli Strikes Likely Kill Houthi Prime Minister

Indonesia: Protests Occur in 39 Cities

Philippines, China, Taiwan: Tensions Converge in South China Sea and Cross-Strait Arenas

Senegal: Faye Indicates Plans To Strengthen Relationship With France Following Meeting With Macron

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