Media

Indonesia

Podcasts

Politics

What are the major issues on Subianto's policy agenda? 

Essential Geopolitics: What to Expect from Indonesia's New President

Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 17, 2024

Snapshots

Canada

India

Indian policemen stand guard outside the entrance of the High Commission of Canada in New Delhi on Oct. 15, 2024. 

Economics

The dispute over India's alleged covert activities on Canadian soil will raise the risk of restricted consular services and protests in both countries, but major economic disruptions are unlikely.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Rift Hits a New Low

Taiwan

Europe

The sample of an Intel chip is displayed during Computex 2024 in Taipei on June 4, 2024. 

Environment, Science & Technology

If Intel's bold new business strategy fails, it would serve a painful blow to U.S. semiconductor ambitions and likely cement the global dominance of Taiwan's TSMC.

The U.S. Semiconductor Industry's Strategic Challenges

China

A man watches a news program about Chinese military drills surrounding Taiwan on a giant screen outside a shopping mall in Beijing on Oct. 14, 2024.

Military & Security

China's latest military exercises lower the threshold for the still unlikely prospect of a Taiwan blockade and highlight Beijing's military coercive strategy toward Taipei through 2028.

Chinese Drills Around Taiwan Practice for a Blockade, Even if One Isn't Imminent

Incoming Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on Jan. 27, 2023, in the Indian city of Srinagar in Kashmir. Jammu and Kashmir's new government will attempt to seek a restoration of full autonomy or at least statehood for the territory, but it will bump up against firm resistance from New Delhi, increasing the likelihood of violent unrest and Pakistani pressure.

Jammu and Kashmir's new government will attempt to seek a restoration of full autonomy or at least statehood for the territory, but it will bump up against firm resistance from New Delhi, increasing the likelihood of violent unrest and Pakistani pressure.

Frustration Will Build in Kashmir as India Ignores the Movement to Restore Autonomy

Iran

Israel

Pakistan

Israel's Iron Dome air defense system intercepts rockets fired from southern Lebanon on Sept. 27, 2024, over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel. The Security Cabinet of Israel has yet to decide exactly how to retaliate against Iran for its Oct. 1 missile barrage against the country, but Israel clearly is seeking U.S. approval for an operation that might yet pull the U.S. back into active defense.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting, Chinese Financial Support Measures

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

The headquarters of China's central bank is seen on May 4, 2021.

The new measures reflect growing concerns about China's economic outlook, but their scale falls short of what is needed to maintain 5% growth and stop deflation.

Faced With Slowed Growth and Deflation Risks, China Unveils a New Stimulus Package

Lebanon

A plume of smoke billows following an Israeli air strike above a border town in southern Lebanon on Oct. 7, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

While the country may initially come together in the face of Israel's invasion, various Lebanese factions will probably become more critical of Hezbollah as the war wears on, raising the risk of violence between the group and its domestic rivals.

How Long Will Lebanon Rally Behind Hezbollah's Fight Against Israel?

Social Issues

What levels of unrest are we likely to see throughout 2024 and beyond?

Essential Geopolitics: The Risk of U.S. Political Unrest Leading up to Elections

Global Elections

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iraq

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Yemen

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

Latest

People are reflected in a window displaying a poster of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in the Palestinian camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8, 2024, in Beirut, Lebanon. 

Sinwar's assassination sets Hamas on the path of succession once more, opening the door to policy change and factionalism.

What Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar's Death Means for the Gaza War

A general view shows a session at the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem on March 20, 2023. 

To keep all of its coalition members happy, Israel's government will avoid specifying its conditions for a victory in Gaza and Lebanon, setting the stage for open-ended military campaigns that could embolden extremist Jewish settlers.

The Risks of Israel's Open-Ended Policies in Gaza and Lebanon

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (center) and other ASEAN leaders take part in the 2024 ASEAN summit in Vientiane on Oct. 9, 2024. 

The deals signed at the summit reflect an increasing focus on economic integration amid the Southeast Asian bloc's continued failure to find consensus on security issues.

Reviewing the 2024 ASEAN Summit

Russia

Moldova

Moldovan President Maya Sandu delivers a speech in Chisinau on Sept. 20, 2024, during a rally to launch her reelection campaign.

Arguably the biggest threat to Moldova's pro-European trajectory comes not from the two impending Oct. 20 votes themselves, but how the results impact the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

Previewing Moldova's Presidential Race and Referendum on EU Membership

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a rally supporting Sao Paulo mayoral candidate Guilherme Boulos (L) on Aug. 24 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While Brazil's upcoming municipal elections will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, they will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

While the vote will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, it will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

Brazil's Municipal Elections Will Leave the Status Quo Intact

Ukraine

A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The changes aim to threaten the West by making even more explicit Moscow's preexisting ability to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian attacks. But the move won't stop Western efforts to maintain support for Ukraine.

With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine

Serbia

Kosovo

Authorities search a building in Mitrovica, northern Kosovo, on Sept. 29, 2023, after the killing of a police officer.

With the prospect of EU membership frozen, Belgrade and Pristina will be incentivized to ramp up their diplomatic feud and inflammatory rhetoric, raising the risk of violence between Kosovo's Serb and Albanian populations.

For Serbia and Kosovo, Stalled EU Membership Bids Will Disincentivize Reconciliation

The Garden City Terminal at the Port of Savannah in Savannah, Georgia, is seen on Nov. 12, 2021.

With the Sept. 30 deadline for a compromise fast approaching and no talks scheduled between the disputing parties, workers at East and Gulf coast ports appear likely to stage a strike that could severely disrupt U.S. exports and imports.

In the U.S., a Looming Port Strike Risks Disrupting Trade Ahead of the Holidays

The national Parliament in the Canadian capital of Ottawa.

The prospect alone of early elections will paralyze policymaking until the deadline for general elections next year.

Trudeau's Struggles Will Paralyze Policymaking in Canada Ahead of Elections

App icons of social media platforms Twitter, Mastodon, Discord, Facebook, Reddit, Parler and Truth Social, are seen on an iPhone. 

Cyber

As mis- and disinformation proliferate online, government-led content moderation efforts threaten to do more harm than good.

Can Europe Solve the Puzzle of Content Moderation?

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Jordan

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

Germany

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

Energy

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

United Kingdom

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

North Korea

South Korea

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that North Korea was assisting Russia with military personnel and workers in Russian factories, citing Ukrainian intelligence, The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 16.

North Korea, Ukraine: North Korean Troops Supporting Russia's War Against Ukraine, Zelensky Says

The United States used its B-2 stealth bombers to strike underground bunkers holding advanced conventional weapons belonging to Yemen's Houthi rebels in and around Sanaa and Saada on Oct. 16, CNN reported on Oct. 17.

U.S., Yemen: U.S. Uses B-2 Bombers Against Houthi Underground Bunkers

The European Commission is considering expanding its powers to scrutinize and eventually halt merger deals to prevent "killer acquisitions" that endanger European start-ups, the Financial Times reported on Oct. 16.

EU: Brussels Considers New Powers To Block 'Killer Acquisitions' in Europe

Pakistan's Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazlur Rehman party announced a consensus with the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PML-N, and the Pakistan People's Party on judicial reforms through a constitutional amendment, Arab News reported on Oct. 17.

Pakistan: Judicial Reforms Gain Support as PTI Calls for Protests

Police DNA tests confirmed that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed on Oct. 16, The Times of Israel reported on Oct. 17.

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Leader's Death Broaches Question of Succession

Mexico

The Federal Judicial Council ordered Mexican judicial workers to resume activities and end a strike that started on Aug. 19 to oppose the government-backed reform of the judiciary branch enacted in September, El Universal reported on Oct. 16.

Mexico: Judicial Workers To Remain Mobilized Against Reform

Nigeria

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, or NUPRC, declined to approve Shell's $1.3 billion sale of its onshore oil fields to the Nigerian-led Renaissance consortium, Reuters reported on Oct. 16, citing the Nigerian news outlet ThisDay. 

Nigeria: Shell's Sale of Onshore Oil Assets Hits Snag

Sub-Saharan Africa

Africa's share of global copper, lithium and graphite production is set to increase by 2030, the International Energy Agency reported on Oct. 16 in its World Energy Outlook 2024. 

Africa: IEA Predicts Africa's Share of Global Copper, Lithium, Graphite Production To Grow by 2030

Science & Technology

Saudi Arabia

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

The Geopolitics of Water

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Sudan

U.S. federal prosecutors unsealed a grand jury indictment charging two Sudanese nationals and brothers with operating and controlling Anonymous Sudan, a purported hacktivist group responsible for more than 35,000 distributed denial of service, or DDoS, attacks, The Washington Post reported on Oct. 16.

U.S.: Two Sudanese Nationals Indicted for Role in Anonymous Sudan Hacking Group

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented Ukraine's five-point "victory plan" for the war with Russia to his country's parliament, the Rada, AP reported on Oct. 16.

Ukraine, Russia: Zelensky Presents 'Victory Plan' to Ukrainian People

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

What Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar's Death Means for the Gaza War

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

North Korea, Ukraine: North Korean Troops Supporting Russia's War Against Ukraine, Zelensky Says

U.S., Yemen: U.S. Uses B-2 Bombers Against Houthi Underground Bunkers

EU: Brussels Considers New Powers To Block 'Killer Acquisitions' in Europe

Pakistan: Judicial Reforms Gain Support as PTI Calls for Protests

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Leader's Death Broaches Question of Succession

Mexico: Judicial Workers To Remain Mobilized Against Reform

Nigeria: Shell's Sale of Onshore Oil Assets Hits Snag

Africa: IEA Predicts Africa's Share of Global Copper, Lithium, Graphite Production To Grow by 2030

U.S.: Two Sudanese Nationals Indicted for Role in Anonymous Sudan Hacking Group

Ukraine, Russia: Zelensky Presents 'Victory Plan' to Ukrainian People

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