Assessments

France

Outgoing French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu arrives to deliver a statement at the Hotel Matignon in Paris after submitting his resignation to French President Emmanuel Macron on Oct. 6, 2025. 

Economics

Politics

Lecornu's resignation leaves President Macron with few good options to ease the ongoing political gridlock over the budget, portending further market volatility, social unrest and, potentially, a fiscal crisis.

French Political Crisis Deepens as Another Prime Minister Resigns

Syria

Turkey

Japan

Tajikistan

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Russia

The assembly hall of the Syrian parliament Oct. 1 in Damascus. An Oct. 5 indirect election for parliament will mark the first time Syrians have had an electoral say in their government since the 1960s.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan's Election, Syria's Political Transition

United States

Bahrain

Iran

Israel

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks to U.S. and Qatari military personnel at the Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar, on May 15, 2025.

Military & Security

The U.S. president's pledge to defend Qatar may deter future Israeli attacks, but it is unlikely to deter Iranian aggression or allay Gulf states' greater concerns about Washington's commitment to their security.

Trump's Security Guarantees for Qatar Unlikely To Offer Enough Reassurance

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Europe

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

Persistent conflict and armed group control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will sustain significant legal, financial and reputational pressures on companies sourcing critical minerals from the region for the foreseeable future.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Due Diligence and Congo's Critical Minerals

Columns

On Geopolitics

Palestinian Territories

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 2, 2025

Snapshots

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu arrives to hold a press conference in Chisinau on Sept. 29, 2025, after her pro-EU party secured a victory in parliamentary elections. 

Despite a clear win for the pro-EU Action and Solidarity in the Sept. 28 parliamentary election, Moldova's path to EU accession remains fraught with obstacles, including the unresolved Transdniestria conflict, entrenched corruption and the need for politically sensitive judicial reforms.

Even With PAS Victory, Moldova's Road to EU Membership Remains Long

The candidates running in the leadership election of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party -- (from left to right) Takayuki Kobayashi, Toshimitsu Motegi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi -- pose after delivering speeches at the kick-off of the campaign in Tokyo on Sept. 22, 2025. 

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's Oct. 4 vote for party president and therefore prime minister will influence the trajectory of Japan's fiscal policy and foreign relations.

Japan's LDP Leadership Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

China

The U.N. Security Council holds a meeting on Iran at the U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, on Sept. 19, 2025. 

Energy

The increased isolation will make Iran more reliant on China and Russia, while the added economic strain could fuel domestic protests and empower Iranian hard-liners calling for more aggressive action against the West.

U.N. Sanctions Snapback: What's Next for Iran?

U.S.-Iran Relations

A Polish-made FlyEye V3.0 drone is displayed during the Iron Defender-25 media day on Sept. 18, 2025, in Nowa Deba, Poland. 

European efforts to fast-track a sophisticated anti-drone system will unlock major contracts for defense firms, but the vast scale of the project will leave Europe exposed to Russian provocations for years.

EU 'Drone Wall' Plans Will Take Years To Materialize, Leaving Continent Vulnerable in the Meantime

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

U.S.-China Relations

Latest

Morocco

Demonstrators lift banners during a youth-led protest demanding reforms to public healthcare and education in Casablanca, Morocco, on Oct. 6, 2025.

The government will likely make some, mostly symbolic, concessions to the youth-led protest movement, which already appears to be weakening, but ongoing grievances related to economic inequality will sustain the risk of future mass protests.

Moroccans' Socioeconomic Grievances Will Persist, Even if Current Gen Z Protests Abate

South Korea

Sanae Takaichi, the newly elected LDP leader, on Oct. 4 in Tokyo.

Takaichi will lean into populism, spurring near-term growth but exacerbating long-term economic challenges, while her nationalism will bolster Japan's military and boost U.S. ties even as it strains those with Japan's neighbors.

Japan's Conservative Takaichi Set To Become Next Prime Minister

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng arrives for trade talks with US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent at the foreign ministry in Madrid on Sept. 14, 2025.

A Trump-Xi phone call and a fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks have yielded few concrete results, showing that negotiations on trade and TikTok will remain slow-going.

Despite Trump-Xi Phone Call, U.S.-China Trade Talks Struggle To Gain Traction

India

A department store on Sept. 5, 2025, in Mumbai, after the Indian government slashed GST rates. While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

India's GST Reforms Will Weigh on State Finances 

Flag of China on a red-painted printed circuit board.

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Advancements in China's semiconductor sector are reducing Chinese companies' reliance on foreign technology, enabling them to push back more firmly against Western hegemony.

China's Chip Advances Increase Beijing's Leverage in Talks With the U.S.

Poland

Ukraine

Russia's drone incursion into Poland highlights Moscow's increasing willingness to test Western resolve as it continues mass airstrikes on Ukraine, prepares for war games in Belarus and negotiations to end the war are stalled. 


Russian Drones Crossing into Poland Risk Escalation with NATO

Nepal

Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption. 

Despite the prime minister's resignation and the lifting of a controversial social media ban, risks of violent unrest will likely persist as long-standing political instability deepens.

Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation

Smoke billows after explosions in Qatar's capital of Doha on Sept. 9. The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

Israel's Attack on Hamas' Political Leadership Scrambles Qatar's Regional Role

France's then-Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (C) delivers his general policy statement during an extraordinary parliamentary session prior to a confidence vote over the government's austerity budget at the National Assembly in Paris on Sept. 8, 2025.

Spending cuts proposed by the ousted prime minister and the prospect of further austerity measures have energized a new grassroots movement, raising the specter of another yellow vest-style uprising.

In France, Prime Minister Bayrou's Ouster Deepens Political Paralysis and Fiscal Uncertainty

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Bangladesh

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

On Security

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Egypt

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Police tape hangs in front of Utah Valley University following the fatal shooting of political activist Charlie Kirk during an event at the campus Sept. 12, 2025 in Orem, Utah. The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Charlie Kirk's Assassination: The Latest Chapter in America's Long History of Political Violence

Burkina Faso

The Burkinabe junta has announced the arrest of eight workers of a Dutch-based nongovernmental organization, including four foreigners, on espionage and treason charges, RFI reported on Oct. 8.

Burkina Faso: Junta Arrests NGO Workers, Including Foreigners, for 'Espionage'

Mali

Some Malian Tuareg rebels of the Azawad Liberation Front, or FLA, have reportedly trained in Ukraine and are adopting tactics learned from the conflict with Russia, including the use of armed first-person view and fiber-optic drones for targeted attacks on Malian and Russian-linked forces, as well as deceptive measures like inflatable decoys, Jeune Afrique reported on Oct. 7.

Mali, Ukraine: Tuareg Rebels Allegedly Receive Discreet Training in Ukraine

Science & Technology

The United States is urging the European Union to revise parts of its green legislative agenda as part of the July U.S.-EU tariff deal, the Financial Times reported on Oct. 8, citing a U.S. government position paper.

EU, U.S.: U.S. Increases Pressure on EU Sustainability Rules Amid Fragile Tariff Deal

The Syrian army and the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached a ceasefire on Oct. 7, easing tensions after clashes in the Kurdish neighborhoods of Aleppo, Reuters reported the same day.

Syria: Army and SDF Reach Ceasefire After Aleppo Clashes

Venezuela

U.S. President Donald Trump ordered special envoy Richard Grenell to suspend all outreach to Venezuela, The New York Times reported on Oct. 6.

U.S., Venezuela: Suspension of Diplomatic Talks Indicates Growing Likelihood of Military Action

Tanzania

The trial against the leader of Tanzania's opposition Chadema party, Tundu Lissu, on treason charges resumed on Oct. 6, Reuters reported the same day.

Tanzania: Treason Trial of Opposition Leader Resumes Three Weeks Ahead of General Election

The new head of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Japan's presumptive next premier, Sanae Takaichi, and the head of coalition partner Komeito, Tetsuo Saito, have so far failed to agree on a policy for political finance reform, delaying a coalition renewal agreement, The Asahi Shimbun reported on Oct. 7. 

Japan: Presumptive Premier Takaichi Faces Coalition Cracks, Opposition Threats

Cambodia

Malaysia

Thailand

U.S. President Donald Trump is pressing Malaysia, chair and host of the upcoming Association of Southeast Asian Nations' leaders summit on Oct. 26, to grant him a ceremonial Thailand-Cambodia peace signing, Politico reported on Oct. 7.

U.S., Malaysia: Trump Conditions ASEAN Summit Participation on Peace Ceremony

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

A person holds a smartphone showing an interface introducing OpenAI's new GPT-5 model in the ChatGPT app in front of a blurred OpenAI logo on Aug. 9, 2025, in Chongqing, China. 

Despite users' disappointment with the lack of conversational improvements, GPT-5 signifies a shift in AI development from basic chatbots to more advanced agentic systems, capable of complex, multi-step tasks.

GPT-5 and the Evolution of AI

Thailand will boycott the Oct. 11 Regional Boundary Committee (RBC) meeting with Cambodia after Phnom Penh did not meet Bangkok's unilaterally imposed Oct. 7 deadline to remove Cambodian residents from three villages in Thailand's Sa Kaeo province, the Bangkok Post reported on Oct. 7.

Thailand, Cambodia: Border Talks Collapse Over Sa Kaeo Evictions

Uzbekistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

At the 12th summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Gabala, Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev called for joint military exercises in 2026, framing the bloc as a rising geopolitical force linking Central Asia and Europe, Azerbaijan State News Agency reported on Oct. 7.

Azerbaijan: Aliyev Calls for Joint Military Drills Under the Organization of Turkic States

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Moroccans' Socioeconomic Grievances Will Persist, Even if Current Gen Z Protests Abate

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Burkina Faso: Junta Arrests NGO Workers, Including Foreigners, for 'Espionage'

Mali, Ukraine: Tuareg Rebels Allegedly Receive Discreet Training in Ukraine

EU, U.S.: U.S. Increases Pressure on EU Sustainability Rules Amid Fragile Tariff Deal

Syria: Army and SDF Reach Ceasefire After Aleppo Clashes

U.S., Venezuela: Suspension of Diplomatic Talks Indicates Growing Likelihood of Military Action

Tanzania: Treason Trial of Opposition Leader Resumes Three Weeks Ahead of General Election

Japan: Presumptive Premier Takaichi Faces Coalition Cracks, Opposition Threats

U.S., Malaysia: Trump Conditions ASEAN Summit Participation on Peace Ceremony

Thailand, Cambodia: Border Talks Collapse Over Sa Kaeo Evictions

Azerbaijan: Aliyev Calls for Joint Military Drills Under the Organization of Turkic States

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