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Middle East and North Africa

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Economics

Energy

Military & Security

Trace the hidden chain reaction from a closed Strait of Hormuz to a local bakery line, and discover how a Middle East energy shock can quietly turn into a global food crisis.

The Decision Advantage: The Foreseen Effects of the Strait of Hormuz Closure

Assessments

Colombia

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Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Europe

Colombia's President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella (R) delivers a speech during a military parade commemorating Colombia's Independence Day in Medellin, Colombia, on July 20, 2026. 

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Colombia's New President Takes Office, Brussels Gains AI Act Enforcement Powers

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Ethiopia

South Africa

Brazil

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

China

Russia

India

(From left to right) Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa attend a plenary session at the BRICS summit in Kazan on Oct. 24, 2024.

The bloc's push to develop an independent payment system for trade will not immediately undermine the U.S. dollar's global dominance, though it could reduce the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions.

The Implications of an Independent BRICS Payment System

France

Spain

Firefighters spray water along the edge of a forest during a wildfire in southwestern France on July 25, 2026. 

While unlikely to be electorally decisive in either country, the crisis will heighten scrutiny of both governments' crisis management and elevate climate adaptation, emergency preparedness and civil protection as key national and EU policy priorities.

The Political and Security Impact of the Wildfires in France and Spain

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 30, 2026

Damaged structures are seen at the site of a U.S.-Saudi strike against Iran-backed militias in Bartalla, northern Iraq, on July 29, 2026. 

As the conflict picks back up, Trump must decide whether to offer Iran major concessions, which would alienate hawkish Republicans at home, or escalate military operations at the risk of reigniting a broader regional war.

Trump Once Again Weighs His Options Against Iran

Snapshots

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro (center) and other leaders leave after a group photo session on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila on July 24, 2026.

The meetings in Manila produced talks but no immediate collective action on critical regional issues like the Iran war's energy shock, intensifying South China Sea tensions and the Myanmar civil war.

ASEAN Meetings Make Little Headway on Pressing Energy and Security Issues

Iraq

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) speaks during a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi (2nd-L) in the Oval Office of the White House on July 14, 2026.

While the Iraqi prime minister's visit to the White House yielded some deals, implementation constraints will likely eventually lead to renewed U.S. economic pressure, further straining Baghdad's finances.

New U.S. Agreements Unlikely to Ease Iraq's Economic Woes

Chile

Chilean lawmakers in Congress celebrate at the end of the voting session on the economic reform bill on July 21, 2026.

Chile is poised to soon enact one of its broadest economic reform packages in decades, which will likely boost investor confidence and regulatory certainty, but at the expense of rising fiscal pressures.

What To Expect as Chile Prepares to Enact Sweeping Economic Reform Bill

Columns

On Security

This photo illustration shows the ChatGPT logo at an office in Washington, D.C., on March 15, 2023.

The autonomous targeting of Hugging Face by OpenAI's models highlights the urgent need for organizations to prepare for advanced cyberattacks orchestrated entirely by AI agents.

Beyond the Hype of Autonomous AI Breaches

Supporters of the far-right Vox party wave flags and shout slogans during a protest against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Madrid, on June 13, 2025.

Social Issues

Strict constitutional restrictions and EU institutional oversight would significantly constrain a future right-wing government's ability to implement sweeping institutional changes.

What the Far-Right Vox Entering Government Would Mean for Spain's Security and Society

Latest

Eritrea

Sudan

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (C) on Oct. 26, 2023, looks on as members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force parade on Ethiopian Defense Force Day in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The latest confrontation between the Ethiopian military and the Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front could signal more frequent clashes between the two sides that risk merging northern Ethiopia's conflicts with Sudan's civil war and could trigger a severe military escalation.

The latest confrontation between the Ethiopian military and the Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front could signal more frequent clashes between the two sides that risk merging northern Ethiopia's conflicts with Sudan's civil war and could trigger a severe military escalation.

Clashes Between the TPLF and Ethiopian Military Threaten Spiraling Violence in Tigray

Bangladesh

Garment workers sew clothes at a textile factory in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on Dec. 29, 2024. 

The government's efforts to secure U.S. tariff exemptions and external financial aid will have only a modest impact without addressing the ready-made garment sector's energy shortages and other structural challenges.

The Outlook for Bangladesh's Garment Sector Under U.S. Tariffs

A Thai soldier stands guard at a damaged border crossing point between Surin province's Chong Chom and O'Smach town on the Thai-Cambodian border, on March 12, 2026.

The Thai-Cambodian ceasefire will likely hold throughout 2026, but competing territorial claims, domestic politics and stalled diplomacy will prevent broader normalization.

Thailand and Cambodia Maintain an Uneasy Ceasefire

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (center) chats with U.S. senators before heading to a closed-door meeting at the U.S. Capitol on July 28, 2026. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If enacted, the proposed bill would give Trump broad new authority to impose tariffs on major Russian oil buyers, but selective enforcement means it would unlikely compel Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

New U.S. Sanctions Bill Unlikely To Impact Russia's Oil Exports or War Strategy

Turkey

Demonstrators yell through a megaphone and hold a framed portrait of the ousted Republican People's Party (CHP) chairman, Ogur Ozel, during an opposition rally in Izmir, Turkey, on May 24, 2026. 

The split could reduce the opposition's competitiveness in the 2028 general elections and further embolden Erdogan to pursue another term via constitutional or electoral mechanisms.

Turkey's Main Opposition Party Splits, Casting Uncertainty Over Efforts to Oust Erdogan

Yemen

Yemeni protesters take part in a demonstration held to send a message of defiance against the continued siege and any military escalation involving Saudi forces against Houthi-controlled northern Yemen on July 17. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Forced to bypass the disrupted Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's increased reliance on alternative routes leaves its critical oil shipments vulnerable to Houthi attacks.


Yemen's Houthis Threaten Saudi Oil Exports With Red Sea Blockade

United Kingdom

A giant Indian flag is displayed from the country's embassy in London on May 7, 2025.

While the agreement will support both countries' economic diversification efforts, U.K. regulatory standards and supply chain challenges will limit some gains for India.

What To Expect as the India-U.K. Trade Deal Enters Force

People gather for a second consecutive day of protests in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2026, following the controversial dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelensky's potentially imminent decision to dismiss the army chief under mounting public pressure would weaken his authority, while prolonged turmoil could further strain Ukraine's war effort.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

On Geopolitics

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

South Korea

Bangladesh and South Korea signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, granting preferential tariff treatment to 97% of Bangladeshi products exported to South Korea and 87% of South Korean products exported to Bangladesh, The Daily Star reported on Aug. 4.

Bangladesh, South Korea: Governments Sign Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement

Japan

Japan's Ministry of Defense published its annual defense white paper on Aug. 4, listing Chinese military activities as an "unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge" to Japan.

Japan: White Paper Focused on China Threat, Defense Production and Economic Security

Oman

As part of an Iran-Oman proposal under negotiation, Iranian officials would maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz's inbound route, while vessels would coordinate transit through the outbound route with Omani officials, who would then notify Iran, Reuters reported on Aug. 4.

Iran, Oman: Strait of Hormuz Proposal Would Formalize Iran's Shipping Leverage

EU member states are moving to replace the European Commission's discretionary approach to third-country participation in the Industrial Accelerator Act's "Made in Europe" scheme with a "partner origin" category tied to specific procurement commitments under trade agreements, Politico reported on Aug. 3, citing a draft compromise. 

EU: Member States Move To Narrow 'Made in Europe' Rules in Industrial Accelerator Act

Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said in an Aug. 3 interview with Politico that Kyiv hoped refinery strikes and Western sanctions would force Russia to end the war this fall, but he warned that Moscow would otherwise resume large-scale attacks on Ukraine's energy, water and sewage infrastructure.

Ukraine, Russia: Energy Deficit Will Deepen Ukraine's Winter Vulnerability

Kenya

Former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta chaired a meeting of the opposition Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition, during which members agreed to rebrand the coalition ahead of Kenya's August 2027 general election and unite the country's opposition forces under one large umbrella organization, Daily Nation reported on Aug. 4.

Kenya: Former President Kenyatta Leads Opposition Talks Pressing for Broad Anti-Ruto Coalition

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission is drafting a ban on the import of Chinese optical transceivers and hopes to publish and apply it later in 2026, Reuters reported on Aug. 4.

U.S., China: FCC Drafting Ban on Chinese Data Center Technology

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Libya

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

The Orange Democratic Movement party, or ODM, announced that it would form a technical committee with Kenya's ruling United Democratic Alliance party, or UDA, with ODM leader Oburu Odinga stating that the party would not field a presidential candidate of its own in Kenya's August 2027 general election and would instead support Kenyan President William Ruto's reelection bid, Daily Nation reported on Aug. 2.

Kenya: ODM Announces Plan for Joint Manifesto With Ruto's UDA

The Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, accused the Ethiopian government of launching a new military offensive and said clashes had erupted between its forces and pro-government forces in the locality of Shererina in the western part of Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, located near the border with Sudan, Addis Standard reported on Aug. 1. 

Ethiopia: Clashes Erupt Between Military and TPLF in Western Tigray, Spill Over Into Sudan

Japan's finance ministry confirmed on Aug. 3 that the U.S. and Japanese governments had coordinated on July 31 for Washington to buy Japanese yen to bolster the currency, the first such intervention since 1998.

Japan, U.S.: Governments Coordinate To Buy Yen for First Time Since 1998

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Thailand and Cambodia Maintain an Uneasy Ceasefire

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Bangladesh, South Korea: Governments Sign Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement

Japan: White Paper Focused on China Threat, Defense Production and Economic Security

Iran, Oman: Strait of Hormuz Proposal Would Formalize Iran's Shipping Leverage

EU: Member States Move To Narrow 'Made in Europe' Rules in Industrial Accelerator Act

Ukraine, Russia: Energy Deficit Will Deepen Ukraine's Winter Vulnerability

Kenya: Former President Kenyatta Leads Opposition Talks Pressing for Broad Anti-Ruto Coalition

U.S., China: FCC Drafting Ban on Chinese Data Center Technology

Kenya: ODM Announces Plan for Joint Manifesto With Ruto's UDA

Ethiopia: Clashes Erupt Between Military and TPLF in Western Tigray, Spill Over Into Sudan

Japan, U.S.: Governments Coordinate To Buy Yen for First Time Since 1998

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