Snapshots

Spain

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding. 

Politics

The end of a political pact between the ruling Socialists and Catalonia's Junts party will make it even harder for Prime Minister Sanchez to govern and pass laws, which could open the door to an early election.

Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support

Media

Madagascar

Morocco

Podcasts

Economics

Military & Security

Why are certain countries and regions more susceptible to youth protests?

Essential Geopolitics: Implications of the Growing Gen Z Protests in Africa

Columns

On Geopolitics

China

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

Ukraine

Russia

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

Assessments

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in a state memorial ceremony for the fallen soldiers of the two-year Gaza war at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 16, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Israeli prime minister is unlikely to call early elections and will likely increase military pressure on Hamas in an effort to reduce the likelihood that he is unseated in elections due by October 2026.


Gaza Ceasefire Hangs in Balance as Netanyahu Contemplates Political Survival

Cameroon

Cote d'Ivoire

Tanzania

Argentina

United States

Japan

South Korea

Netherlands

Supporters of Argentine President Javier Milei's Liberty Advances (LLA) party wave flags during a campaign rally in Rosario, Argentina, on Oct. 23, 2025.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Argentina Holds Midterm Elections, Trump Travels to Asia

U.S.-China Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Turkey

Cyprus

A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Attempts by Turkey to coerce Northern Cyprus economically could inadvertently strengthen President Tufan Erhurman's support and his drive for federalization with the internationally recognized south.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Kenya

Kenyan forces stand next to the coffin of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during a funeral mass at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology on October 19, 2025 in Bondo, Kenya.

Social Issues

The death of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga creates a significant power vacuum, fundamentally altering the political calculations ahead of the 2027 elections.


What Raila Odinga's Death Means for Kenyan Politics

A photograph taken on Oct. 10, 2025, shows Dutch election posters ahead of the Netherlands' Oct. 29 elections. 

Political fragmentation points toward complex negotiations and an ideologically unstable coalition, most likely led by either centrists or the far right.

Netherlands Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Syria

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) meets with U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, at the presidential palace in Damascus on July 9, 2025. 

The U.S. will leverage permanent sanctions relief to pressure Syria to finalize a security pact with Israel, but the Kurds will resist integrating with President Ahmad al-Sharaa's government. 

U.S. Engagement With Syria Will Promote Stability, but Kurdish Integration Will Continue To Lag

Argentina's flag flutters at the Congress.

A weak result for the government is likely to trigger a significant peso devaluation and heightened political instability, effectively stalling the administration's pro-business legislative agenda.


The Stakes for Javier Milei in Argentina's Midterm Elections

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 23, 2025

Latest

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Global Trade

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

Chancellor Friedrich Merz raises his hand in a vote at the Bundestag prior to a vote on changes to Germany's Basic Law on March 18, 2025 in Berlin, Germany. 

A landmark reform of the constitutional debt brake unlocks significant new spending, but this fiscal boost will be dampened by persistent administrative bottlenecks and a political reluctance to seriously tackle broader structural reform.

Defense Spending Will Modestly Boost the German Economy, but Challenges Remain

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Bangladesh

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

Canada

India

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025. 

President Andry Rajoelina's removal on the back of widespread, youth-led protests will likely deescalate tensions in Madagascar in the next few weeks, but it could inspire similar protest movements elsewhere in Africa and potentially beyond.

Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar

North Korea

Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un participate in a ceremony at the Pyongyang Sports Palace on Oct. 9, 2025, during Lam's three-day official visit to North Korea.

To Lam's visit injects fresh diplomatic energy into the long-stalled relationship with North Korea and fits into Pyongyang's gradual reemergence as an active player in regional diplomacy.

Vietnam's Lam Extends Diplomatic Balancing Act With Rare North Korea Visit

On Security

Nigeria

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Tunisia

Serbia

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Environment, Science & Technology

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Cameroon's Interior Minister Paul Atanga Nji announced that opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary will face legal action for allegedly inciting violent protests following the Oct. 12 presidential vote, which saw President Paul Biya win an eighth consecutive term, BBC reported on Oct. 29.

Cameroon: Opposition Leader To Face Legal Action Over Ongoing Election Unrest

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow successfully tested the Poseidon nuclear-powered undersea torpedo, calling it a "huge success," Reuters reported on Oct. 29.

Russia: Putin Touts Nuclear-Powered Torpedo 'Test' as U.S.-Russia Diplomacy Falters

Mali

Australia

Foreign missions accredited to Mali, including those representing the United States and Australia, have called on their nationals to immediately leave Mali amid a worsening jihadist insurgency now threatening the capital, Bamako, Radio France Internationale reported on Oct. 29.

Mali: Foreign Missions Order Nationals To Leave Mali as Jihadists Double Down on Attacks Near Bamako

Tanzanian officials imposed a curfew in the economic capital, Dar es Salaam, following protests against the presidential and parliamentary elections, which were widely deemed unfair, BBC reported on Oct. 29.

Tanzania: Curfew in Dar es Salaam Follows Nationwide Election-Related Protests

Taiwan

The new leader of Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang, or KMT, Cheng Li-wun, reiterated her objections to the government's plan to raise defense spending to 5% of Taiwan's gross domestic product by 2030, citing financial concerns, Focus Taiwan reported on Oct. 29.

Taiwan, U.S.: New Opposition Head Rejects Defense Hike, Risking U.S. Ire

Cuba

Dominican Republic

Haiti

Bahamas

Jamaica

Science & Technology

Hurricane Melissa caused severe floods and power outages in Jamaica and Cuba, CNN reported on Oct. 29.

Caribbean: Hurricane Melissa Causes Severe Floods and Damages in Jamaica and Cuba

U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung reached a trade deal to lower U.S. tariffs on South Korean goods, including automobiles, from 25% to 15%, Yonhap News Agency reported on Oct. 29. 

South Korea, U.S.: Trade Deal Reached, To Put Pressure on Japan

Brazil

A police operation against a drug-trafficking gang in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, ended with 64 confirmed deaths, and locals retrieved at least another 78 bodies from an area near the favelas where the raid occurred, marking the state's most violent police operation on record, g1 reported on Oct. 29.

Brazil: Violent Police Operation Deepens Political Divides Over Domestic Security Policy

A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, announced that Israel would resume the ceasefire with Hamas after Israel conducted a series of large-scale airstrikes on Gaza, reportedly killing at least 100 people, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 29.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel Resumes Ceasefire After Airstrikes in Gaza

Iraq

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Europe

Romania

Romania's Ministry of National Defence said in an Oct. 29 statement that Bucharest and other NATO allies were notified of the United States' decision to reduce its troop presence in Romania and other European countries as part of a broader review of U.S. global force posture.

Romania, Europe, U.S.: Washington to Reduce Troop Presence in Romania

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Cameroon: Opposition Leader To Face Legal Action Over Ongoing Election Unrest

Russia: Putin Touts Nuclear-Powered Torpedo 'Test' as U.S.-Russia Diplomacy Falters

Mali: Foreign Missions Order Nationals To Leave Mali as Jihadists Double Down on Attacks Near Bamako

Tanzania: Curfew in Dar es Salaam Follows Nationwide Election-Related Protests

Taiwan, U.S.: New Opposition Head Rejects Defense Hike, Risking U.S. Ire

Caribbean: Hurricane Melissa Causes Severe Floods and Damages in Jamaica and Cuba

South Korea, U.S.: Trade Deal Reached, To Put Pressure on Japan

Brazil: Violent Police Operation Deepens Political Divides Over Domestic Security Policy

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel Resumes Ceasefire After Airstrikes in Gaza

Romania, Europe, U.S.: Washington to Reduce Troop Presence in Romania

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