Assessments

Mexico

South Korea

Poland

Ukraine

Russia

Ukrainian, U.S. and Russian delegates meet for peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 16, 2025. 

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Ukraine-Russia Talks, Mexico's First-Ever Judicial Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 29, 2025

Members of the National Association of Magistrates and District Judges hold a massive Mexican flag during a protest in Mexico City, Mexico, on Sept. 11, 2024, after Mexico's Senate approved controversial judicial reforms. 

The likely strong performance of candidates aligned with the ruling Morena party will undermine checks and balances and create regulatory uncertainty for businesses over the long term.

What's at Stake in Mexico's First-Ever Judicial Elections

Dunster House at Harvard University is seen on March 17, 2025, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. 

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

The Trump administration's latest salvo against elite U.S. universities highlights a broader campaign that will have lasting implications for domestic scientific research, innovation and competitiveness.

The Implications of Trump's Pressure Campaign Against U.S. Universities

Indonesia

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto speaks during an economic event in Jakarta on April 8, 2025.

The president's efforts to consolidate power via welfare populism and security-minded governance could face challenges if economic headwinds strengthen, especially amid looming U.S. tariff threats.

How Subianto Is Making His Mark on Indonesian Politics

India

Global Trade

India's evolving trade strategy aims to boost key exports while protecting sensitive sectors, reflecting a blend of liberalization and long-standing protectionist instincts.

The Geopolitics of Trade: India

China

Japan

Malaysia

The ASEAN logo May 15 in front of the Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Malaysia will host the first of the two annual summits of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on May 26.

The Weekly Rundown: Trans-Atlantic Trade Talks Intensify, Malaysia Hosts Two Summits

The U.S. Capitol building is seen on the evening of May 20, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

The bill could lead to higher U.S. yields by heightening concerns about large fiscal deficits and increasing debt levels, but it is unlikely to alone severely undermine investor confidence.

The Economic Upshot of U.S. Republicans' Budget Reconciliation Bill

Columns

On Geopolitics

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

U.S.-China Relations

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 22, 2025

Latest

Service members of Ukraine's 13th Khartia Brigade load a Vampire drone with food and ammunition supplies to be delivered to the infantry at the frontline on March 7, 2025, in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. 

Ukraine's recent string of asymmetric attacks on Russian soil could make Moscow more flexible in negotiations, but it also risks diplomatic blowback that at least temporarily scuttles peace talks.

The Implications of Ukraine's Audacious Attacks on Russia

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

M23 fighters are seen at the main border crossing between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda in Goma on March 1, 2025.

Mediation efforts from the Trump administration will likely see the two African countries ink a peace deal in the coming months, but implementation will prove challenging, sustaining the risk of a new military escalation in eastern Congo.

U.S. Mediation Brings Congo and Rwanda Closer to a Peace Deal

Snapshots

Right-wing opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki waves to supporters in Warsaw, Poland, following the presidential runoff election on June 1, 2025.

The incoming conservative president will likely veto many of the centrist government's domestic reforms, while his euroskeptic views will sustain foreign policy incoherence, potentially undermining Poland's economic outlook and its credibility as a regional leader.

Poland Braces for More Political Gridlock Following Nawrocki's Presidential Victory

Global Elections

Canada

Europe

A U.S. courthouse facade with columns in lower Manhattan, New York.

The court ruling nullifies most -- though not all -- of the Trump administration's tariffs, giving U.S. trading partners temporary breathing room in negotiations while the White House searches for alternative trade measures.

The White House's Tariff Ambitions Bend -- But Do Not Break -- Under the Weight of a Court Ruling

Australia

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton concedes defeat during a Liberal Party election night event on May 3, 2025, in Brisbane, Australia. 

The collapse of the center-right Liberal-National Coalition (LNC) will grant the ruling Labor Party freer rein to implement energy transition, industrial investment and fiscal reform policies.

Collapse of Australia's Conservative Coalition Reshapes Political Landscape, Further Empowers Labor

Philippines

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

Pakistan

Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Containers are seen at China's Lianyungang port in eastern Jiangsu province on May 1, 2025. 

Although the U.S.-China trade deal will bring short-term economic relief, negotiations over a broader agreement will remain fraught, particularly since the rapid reduction of U.S. tariffs will embolden China to implement strong retaliation when talks falter.

Despite Tariff Reprieve, a Broader U.S.-China Deal Will Remain Elusive

Romania

Presidential candidate George Simion is shown on a screen addressing his supporters at the campaign headquarters of their candidate after polls closed on May 4, 2025 in Bucharest, Romania.

Far-right candidate George Simion's first-round win in Romania's presidential race highlights rising anti-establishment sentiment and uncertainty over the country's political and Western trajectory ahead of a tense May 18 runoff.

Romania Faces Turmoil After Far-Right Win in Presidential First Round

Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to his supporters in Ottawa, Canada, on April 29, 2025, after winning the country’s early general elections. 

Canada's newly elected Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is poised to tackle an economic slowdown with tax cuts, domestic industry protection, and closer ties to Europe despite falling just short of a parliamentary majority.

Liberals Win Canada Election, but Minority Government Will Complicate Legislation

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

Iran

Iraq

Syria

Yemen

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

France

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Bangladesh

Bangladesh's financial adviser unveiled a 7.9 trillion taka ($64.96 billion) national budget that aims to revive the economy while reducing the fiscal deficit to 3.6% of GDP from the current 4.6%, Bloomberg reported on June 2.

Bangladesh: Government Unveils Budget, Tribunal To Try Ousted Prime Minister, Banned Party Regains Status

United Kingdom

British Defense Secretary John Healey presented the strategic defense review in the House of Commons, the BBC reported on June 2.

U.K.: British Government Unveils Strategic Defense Review

The president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China said China was approving only a few rare earth export licenses, "far from being sufficient to prevent imminent production halts," The New York Times reported on June 2.

U.S., China: Rare Earth Export Curbs Start To Bite, Beijing Refutes U.S. Accusations

Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Istanbul, Turkey, for their second face-to-face encounter since May 19, Reuters reported on June 2. 

Russia, Ukraine: Delegations Hold Second Meeting in Istanbul

U.S.-Iran Relations

Iran will effectively reject the May 31 U.S. nuclear deal proposal, Reuters reported on June 2, citing a senior Iranian diplomat.

Iran, U.S.: Iran To Reject Latest U.S. Nuclear Deal Proposal

Angola

Kuwait

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Kazakhstan

Energy

OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the organization announced in a May 31 communique.

Global: OPEC+ Approves Third Accelerated Production Hike, But Russia-Saudi Tensions May Rise

Science & Technology

Israel

Lebanon

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Colombia

The Colombian government issued a decree raising the corporate withholding tax for various sectors, La Republica reported on May 29.

Colombia: Tax Increase Underscores Challenging Fiscal Situation, Unorthodox Policymaking

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Palestinian militant group Hamas said the current U.S.-led proposal to pause the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza "fails to meet any of the just and legitimate demands of our people" but added that the group would continue to "study" the proposal without rejecting it, Reuters reported on May 30.

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Rejects U.S. Ceasefire Proposal But Does Not Abandon Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump claimed on Truth Social on May 30 that China "perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY," in reference to the United States' May 12 deal with China to reduce tariffs.

U.S., China: Trump Cries Foul on Trade as Both Sides Maintain Retaliatory Power

Former President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Joseph Kabila made his first public appearance in the country since 2023 in the city of Goma, held by the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels, Jeune Afrique reported on May 30.

Congo: Former President Kabila Makes Public Appearance in Goma  

Media

Finland

Sweden

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Poland Braces for More Political Gridlock Following Nawrocki's Presidential Victory

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Bangladesh: Government Unveils Budget, Tribunal To Try Ousted Prime Minister, Banned Party Regains Status

U.K.: British Government Unveils Strategic Defense Review

U.S., China: Rare Earth Export Curbs Start To Bite, Beijing Refutes U.S. Accusations

Russia, Ukraine: Delegations Hold Second Meeting in Istanbul

Iran, U.S.: Iran To Reject Latest U.S. Nuclear Deal Proposal

Global: OPEC+ Approves Third Accelerated Production Hike, But Russia-Saudi Tensions May Rise

Colombia: Tax Increase Underscores Challenging Fiscal Situation, Unorthodox Policymaking

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Rejects U.S. Ceasefire Proposal But Does Not Abandon Talks

U.S., China: Trump Cries Foul on Trade as Both Sides Maintain Retaliatory Power

Congo: Former President Kabila Makes Public Appearance in Goma

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