<p>The Asia-Pacific is home to more people than any other region. Centered on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean, this region includes the easternmost countries of continental Asia as well as the archipelagos that punctuate the coast. Several of these countries, most notably China, experienced rapid economic growth in the second half of the 20th century, giving the region a new sense of global economic relevance that continues today. That relevance, however, depends largely on China, a power in transition whose rise is testing the network of U.S. alliances that have long dominated the region. How effectively Beijing manages its transition will shape the regional balance of power in the decades to come.</p>

Centered on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean, the Asia-Pacific region includes the easternmost countries of continental Asia as well as the archipelagos that punctuate the coast. 

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Samoa

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

China

Timor-Leste

Federated States of Micronesia

Fiji

Indonesia

Japan

Kiribati

Laos

Malaysia

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Palau

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Philippines

Singapore

Solomon Islands

South Korea

Taiwan

Thailand

Tonga

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Vietnam

Beyond Quantitative Easing

The New Silk Road

Modernizing China’s Military

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Globalization

Social Issues

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

Moscow Looks to the East

China in Transition

A Japanese Awakening

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

Assessments

United States

Venezuela

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

Economics

Global Trade

Military & Security

Politics

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

U.S.-China Relations

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Greenland

Iran

Israel

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

U.S.-Iran Relations

Benin

Uganda

Canada

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Media

Forecast Webcast

Energy

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

South Asia

Israel-Hamas Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A general view shows the closed border checkpoint between Cambodia and Thailand in Poipet, Cambodia, on Dec. 12, 2025, amid clashes in the area.

The Southeast Asian countries' second pause following the failed July ceasefire remains highly fragile due to early alleged violations and unresolved territorial disputes, which could lead to renewed large-scale fighting in the years ahead.

Another Thai-Cambodian Truce Halts Escalating Border Clashes -- For Now

U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential proclamation on Jan. 14 placing a 25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.

U.S.: Washington Implements Narrow Tariffs on Semiconductors, Delays Decision on CRM Tariffs

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi met with Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Suzuki Shunichi and the heads of her coalition partner, Japan Innovation Party, on Jan. 14 and informed them of her intent to dissolve the Diet on Jan. 23 and call snap elections, with a press conference with more details set for Jan. 19.

Japan: Takaichi To Call Risky Snap Elections, Could Delay Budget

Chinese authorities recently told domestic companies to stop using cybersecurity software made by approximately a dozen U.S. and Israeli companies due to national security concerns, Reuters reported on Jan. 14.

U.S., China: China Bans U.S. and Israeli Cybersecurity Products, Nvidia H200 Chips

The United States is demanding Indonesia purchase U.S.-made maritime surveillance drones and use them to publicly harden its South China Sea and Natuna Sea posture vis-a-vis China as conditions for cutting threatened tariffs from 32% to 19%, according to an Indonesian government document cited by The Straits Times on Jan. 14.

Indonesia, U.S.: Washington's Security Demands Complicate Trade Deal Finalization

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung met with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Nara, Takaichi's home city, where they discussed economic security cooperation, including on critical mineral supply chains, Yonhap News Agency reported on Jan. 13.

South Korea, Japan: Lee and Takaichi Seek Cooperation, Avoid Historical Debates

At a Jan. 13 press conference in New Delhi, India's Army Chief Upendra Dwivedi said India and China were "trying to increase trust" between their militaries, including through meetings between their prime ministers, defense ministers and foreign ministers, and he added both sides felt an urgency to maintain calm along their disputed border, Bloomberg reported the same day.

India, China: India's Army Chief Reaffirms Ties With Beijing Gradually Improving

Taiwan's Executive Yuan's Office of Trade Negotiations announced on Jan. 13 that Taiwan and the United States had broadly agreed on a trade deal and would soon hold a final meeting to conclude talks.

U.S., Taiwan: Trade Deal Impending After Lengthy Trade Talks

Iraq

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Jan. 13 Truth Social post that any country "doing business" with Iran would face a 25% tariff when doing "any and all business" with the United States.

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

Asia-Pacific

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Washington Implements Narrow Tariffs on Semiconductors, Delays Decision on CRM Tariffs

Japan: Takaichi To Call Risky Snap Elections, Could Delay Budget

U.S., China: China Bans U.S. and Israeli Cybersecurity Products, Nvidia H200 Chips

Indonesia, U.S.: Washington's Security Demands Complicate Trade Deal Finalization

South Korea, Japan: Lee and Takaichi Seek Cooperation, Avoid Historical Debates

India, China: India's Army Chief Reaffirms Ties With Beijing Gradually Improving

U.S., Taiwan: Trade Deal Impending After Lengthy Trade Talks

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

Forecasts

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