<p>The Asia-Pacific is home to more people than any other region. Centered on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean, this region includes the easternmost countries of continental Asia as well as the archipelagos that punctuate the coast. Several of these countries, most notably China, experienced rapid economic growth in the second half of the 20th century, giving the region a new sense of global economic relevance that continues today. That relevance, however, depends largely on China, a power in transition whose rise is testing the network of U.S. alliances that have long dominated the region. How effectively Beijing manages its transition will shape the regional balance of power in the decades to come.</p>

Centered on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean, the Asia-Pacific region includes the easternmost countries of continental Asia as well as the archipelagos that punctuate the coast. 

Asia-Pacific

Australia

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Brunei Darussalam

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Beyond Quantitative Easing

The New Silk Road

Modernizing China’s Military

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Globalization

Social Issues

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

Moscow Looks to the East

China in Transition

A Japanese Awakening

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Benin

Uganda

Canada

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Media

Forecast Webcast

Energy

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

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Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

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Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A general view shows the closed border checkpoint between Cambodia and Thailand in Poipet, Cambodia, on Dec. 12, 2025, amid clashes in the area.

The Southeast Asian countries' second pause following the failed July ceasefire remains highly fragile due to early alleged violations and unresolved territorial disputes, which could lead to renewed large-scale fighting in the years ahead.

Another Thai-Cambodian Truce Halts Escalating Border Clashes -- For Now

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

Hirofumi Yoshimura, the head of the Japan Innovation Party, a coalition partner of the government, told reporters he believed elections for the lower house of parliament would soon occur following Jan. 9 talks with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Reuters reported on Jan. 11.

Japan: Takaichi Seriously Considering Risky Snap Elections

The European Union outlined a process for Chinese electric vehicle exporters to make minimum price offers to "remove the injurious effects of the subsidization" in China, AP reported on Jan. 12. 

Europe, China: Price Floor Deal To Resolve Electric Vehicle Tariff Dispute, For Now

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recalled parliament two weeks early for a special sitting to rush through sweeping hate speech, extremist group and firearms legislation in response to the Dec. 15, 2025, terrorist attack at Bondi Beach, the Australian Financial Review reported on Jan. 12.

Australia: Parliament Recalled to Fast-Track Post-Bondi Legislation

Taiwan's more pro-China Kuomintang, or KMT, and the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP, are in the final stages of talks to revive the Cross-Strait Economic, Trade and Culture Forum in order to facilitate economic and cultural exchanges, the South China Morning Post reported on Jan. 9.

Taiwan: Opposition Seeks To Revive Controversial Forum With China

South Africa

South Africa is scheduled to host the BRICS+ "Will for Peace" naval military exercises off the coast of Simons Town's naval base in the company of Chinese, Russian and Iranian vessels on Jan. 9-16, The Independent Online reported on Jan. 9.

South Africa: Pretoria's BRICS+ Naval Drills With Iran Set To Draw Trump's Ire

The China-backed cyber threat actor Salt Typhoon has accessed email systems of congressional staff on several committees of the U.S. House of Representatives, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 7.

U.S., China: Salt Typhoon Breached Congressional Committee Staff Emails

China's regulators have stopped reviewing applications for licenses to export heavy rare earths to Japanese companies in the days since China announced a ban on dual-use goods exports to Japanese military end users on Jan. 6, according to two Chinese exporters interviewed by The Wall Street Journal on Jan. 8.

China, Japan: Beijing Cuts Exports of Heavy Rare Earths to Japan

Cambodia announced that an unspecified senior U.S. State Department official will visit its capital, Phnom Penh, to assist in stabilizing the country's fragile ceasefire with Thailand, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 8.

Cambodia, U.S.: State Department Official To Visit Phnom Penh

Asia-Pacific

SITUATION REPORTS

Japan: Takaichi Seriously Considering Risky Snap Elections

Europe, China: Price Floor Deal To Resolve Electric Vehicle Tariff Dispute, For Now

Australia: Parliament Recalled to Fast-Track Post-Bondi Legislation

Taiwan: Opposition Seeks To Revive Controversial Forum With China

South Africa: Pretoria's BRICS+ Naval Drills With Iran Set To Draw Trump's Ire

U.S., China: Salt Typhoon Breached Congressional Committee Staff Emails

China, Japan: Beijing Cuts Exports of Heavy Rare Earths to Japan

Cambodia, U.S.: State Department Official To Visit Phnom Penh

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