<p>The Asia-Pacific is home to more people than any other region. Centered on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean, this region includes the easternmost countries of continental Asia as well as the archipelagos that punctuate the coast. Several of these countries, most notably China, experienced rapid economic growth in the second half of the 20th century, giving the region a new sense of global economic relevance that continues today. That relevance, however, depends largely on China, a power in transition whose rise is testing the network of U.S. alliances that have long dominated the region. How effectively Beijing manages its transition will shape the regional balance of power in the decades to come.</p>

Centered on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean, the Asia-Pacific region includes the easternmost countries of continental Asia as well as the archipelagos that punctuate the coast. 

Asia-Pacific

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Beyond Quantitative Easing

The New Silk Road

Modernizing China’s Military

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Globalization

Social Issues

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

Moscow Looks to the East

China in Transition

A Japanese Awakening

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

U.S.-China Relations

Assessments

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As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A general view shows the closed border checkpoint between Cambodia and Thailand in Poipet, Cambodia, on Dec. 12, 2025, amid clashes in the area.

The Southeast Asian countries' second pause following the failed July ceasefire remains highly fragile due to early alleged violations and unresolved territorial disputes, which could lead to renewed large-scale fighting in the years ahead.

Another Thai-Cambodian Truce Halts Escalating Border Clashes -- For Now

Central African Republic

Guinea

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The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

Energy

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

Oman

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.

New trade pacts offer gains in market access and investment but India's protectionist stance on agriculture and dairy remains an obstacle to deals with the United States and European Union. 


Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships

A U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II on Dec. 15 taxis at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.

The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami

A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Despite growing interest from Russia, China and Western powers, Central Asia will struggle to emerge as a true continental trade hub due to competing agendas, weak financing and coordination, and security and governance issues.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

A Thai soldier points out an area on a map near the Cambodian border during a press visit on Aug. 16, 2025, in Sisaket, Thailand. 

Renewed fighting along the border could surpass the July clashes in scale, and while U.S. pressure will likely compel both countries to return to the ceasefire, the risk of future flare-ups will remain high.

Latest Thailand-Cambodia Clashes Will Test U.S. Appetite for Intervention

Taiwan's opposition-led legislature failed to pass a budget by the Dec. 31, 2025, deadline for the beginning of the Jan. 1 fiscal year, marking the first such failure in the democracy's 30-year history.

Taiwan: 2026 Budget Delayed, Bringing Political Dysfunction to New Heights

The chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was passed from Malaysia to the Philippines on Jan. 1, The Star reported. As 2026 chair, Manila will set the bloc's agenda for the year.

Asia-Pacific: The Philippines Assumes 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

Indonesia has formally enforced its new Criminal Code, which was passed in 2022 and replaces a Dutch colonial-era legal framework that had governed criminal law in the country for more than a century, the Jakarta Globe reported Jan. 2.

Indonesia: New Criminal Code Takes Effect, Replacing Colonial-Era Legal Framework

A Cambodian defense ministry spokesperson announced on Dec. 31 that the ministry had received the transfer of 18 Cambodian soldiers who had been detained in Thailand since a previous round of border clashes between the two sides in July.

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok Releases Prisoners in Line With Ceasefire

China conducted the second and likely final day of its Justice Mission 2025 military drills around Taiwan, with Taiwan's defense ministry detecting 103 Chinese military aircraft, naval vessels, coast guard ships and amphibious vessels practicing raids and seizing ports, the South China Post reported on Dec. 30.

China, Taiwan: Missile Tests, Drills in Japan's EEZ Amid Second Day of Military Exercises

Myanmar began the first phase of a three-stage general election on Dec. 28, Reuters reported the same day, with residents and press observing weak voter turnout. 

Myanmar: Junta-Run Election Sees Low Turnout as Civil War Continues

China's Eastern Theater Command initiated large scale drills encircling Taiwan, including around areas closer to the main island than in previous exercises and deploying army, naval, air force and artillery units, Reuters reported Dec. 29.

China, Taiwan: Beijing Conducts Record Encirclement Drills Around Taiwan

Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang, or KMT, and Taiwan People's Party, or TPP, cooperated to pass a motion scheduling a vote on the impeachment of President William Lai for May 19, with public hearings due in January, April and May, the Taipei Times reported on Dec. 26. 

Taiwan: Opposition Sets Date for Presidential Impeachment Vote

Asia-Pacific

SITUATION REPORTS

Taiwan: 2026 Budget Delayed, Bringing Political Dysfunction to New Heights

Asia-Pacific: The Philippines Assumes 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

Indonesia: New Criminal Code Takes Effect, Replacing Colonial-Era Legal Framework

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok Releases Prisoners in Line With Ceasefire

China, Taiwan: Missile Tests, Drills in Japan's EEZ Amid Second Day of Military Exercises

Myanmar: Junta-Run Election Sees Low Turnout as Civil War Continues

China, Taiwan: Beijing Conducts Record Encirclement Drills Around Taiwan

Taiwan: Opposition Sets Date for Presidential Impeachment Vote

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