<p>To the west of Eurasia lays Europe, a region predisposed to division. It is surrounded on nearly all sides by islands and peninsulas that make it difficult for Europe to cohere. The northern half of the continent, moreover, sits on a plain whose short, meandering rivers tend to empower countries without forcing them to work with others. The southern half is situated on more mountainous terrain that has historically impeded the creation of strong, unified economies. As a result, Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.</p>

Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.

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Beyond Quantitative Easing

The Ukraine Conflict

The Politics of Pipelines

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

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The Fate of the Eurozone

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European Disintegration

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The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

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A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Canada

Mexico

United States

Iran

Japan

India

Cargo ships June 19 off the coast of the Khor Fakkan Container Terminal in Sharjah emirate, along the Gulf of Oman.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan's Takaichi Goes to India, an Unsteady U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer poses with his wife Victoria at the door to 10 Downing Street after making a statement on his future outside 10 Downing Street on the morning of June 22, 2026, in London. 

While a swift leadership transition by mid-July could restore near-term political stability, investors will focus on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer's successor will be able to successfully balance party unity with fiscal discipline.


Burnham Premiership Could Stabilize U.K. Politics, But Markets Remain Cautious

French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a meeting with leaders of the G7 Engagement Groups ahead of the upcoming G7 summit at the Elysee Palace in Paris on June 10, 2026. 

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Talks Continue, France Hosts G7 Summit

China

A digital illustration of Europe.

The EU's push to reduce its reliance on foreign technology suppliers risks angering both China and the U.S., while execution will be hindered by domestic industrial constraints and internal political divisions.

Key Takeaways From the EU's Tech Sovereignty Package

Citizens vote by raising their hands during the Landsgemeinde, a traditional public, non-secret ballot conducted by majority rule, in Appenzell, eastern Switzerland, on April 26.

Global Trade

If approved, the cap on the permanent resident population would compel Swiss companies to accelerate capital investment and automation initiatives to offset reduced EU migration.


Swiss Population Referendum Threatens Growth and EU Relations

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk attend a signing ceremony of a UK-Poland defence and security treaty at the Battle of Britain Bunker on May 27 in London, England.

Concerned about the reliability of the United States' security commitments, European nations are increasingly relying on bilateral defense agreements to secure their strategic interests and deter Russian aggression.


U.K. and Poland Hedge Against Transatlantic Uncertainty With Bilateral Treaty

A National Police van is parked in front of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party headquarters during the Civil Guard's police search on May 27, 2026, in Madrid, Spain. 

Widening inquiries into public procurement and influence peddling will continue to weaken the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

Scandals Linked to Spanish PM Sanchez Point to Continued Political Paralysis 

Greenland

U.S. special envoy to Greenland, Republican Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry (center right), and Greenlandic mason and Trump supporter Jorgen Boassen (center left) are pictured in Nuuk, Greenland, on May 20, 2026, on the sidelines of the Future Greenland business fair. 

Ongoing talks with Greenland and Denmark will likely yield a deal that meets most U.S. objectives without requiring formal annexation, though a broader transatlantic crisis remains possible if negotiations collapse.

Can the U.S. Reach a Compromise on Greenland That Averts a Transatlantic Crisis?

Israel

Palestinian Territories

The EU and Israeli flags in March 2024 in central Berlin's Rotes Rathaus. Although the European Union has sanctioned extremist Israeli settlers, deep-seated internal divisions and a reliance on Israeli defense systems will likely prevent the bloc from imposing comprehensive trade restrictions.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Although the European Union has sanctioned extremist Israeli settlers, deep-seated internal divisions and a reliance on Israeli defense systems will likely prevent the bloc from imposing comprehensive trade restrictions.

Targeted EU Sanctions on Israeli Settlers Unlikely To Broaden Into Wider Restrictions 

Turkey

A delegation of high-level EU officials, including foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, visited Ankara, Turkey, on June 30 to discuss economic and security cooperation with senior Turkish officials, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

EU, Turkey: Brussels Sends High-Level Delegation to Ankara for Wide-Ranging Talks

Ukraine

Authorities in Monaco announced they are treating a June 29 explosion that seriously injured three people as "attempted murder" and not considering it a terrorist attack, The Guardian reported June 30.

Monaco: Attempted Assassination Targets Ukrainian-Born Tycoon

Outgoing U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer on June 30 revealed an additional 15 billion pound (approximately $19.8 billion) investment over four years to bring defense spending to 80 billion pounds by 2029 in a much-delayed and highly anticipated Defence Investment Plan (DIP), The Guardian reported.

U.K.: Starmer Presents Defense Investment Plan to Boost Spending Over Four Years

Former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham proposed a major shift toward regional governance to counter the concentration of power in London during his first major policy speech since launching his bid to succeed Keir Starmer as Labour Party leader and U.K. prime minister, the Guardian reported June 29.

U.K.: Burnham Proposes Massive Rebalancing of Power 

The European Commission is preparing plans to extend economic benefits to EU candidate countries before they formally join the bloc as part of a "gradual integration" strategy aimed at speeding enlargement without lowering entry standards, Politico reported on June 26.

EU: Commission Drafts Plan To Grant Candidates Economic Benefits Before Accession

At the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdansk, Poland, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the transfer of the first 3.2 billion euro ($3.6 billion) tranche under the European Union's 90 billion euro Ukraine Support Loan and said the bloc would begin disbursing funds from a 6 billion euro drone-production package in the coming days, Interfax-Ukraine reported on June 25.

Ukraine, EU: EU Loan Anchors Gdansk Recovery Conference Amid Poland-Ukraine Row

On June 25, EU member states formally adopted two regulations implementing the terms of the 2025 trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, according to a press release from the European Council.

EU, U.S.: EU Formally Adopts Trade Agreement With U.S.

Kazakhstan

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev concluded a visit to Brussels, Belgium, with a package of transport, aviation and minerals-related agreements, including $462 million in commercial transport and infrastructure deals, and a landmark Horizontal Aviation Agreement between Kazakhstan and the European Union, The Times of Central Asia reported on June 24.

Kazakhstan, EU: Tokayev Secures Transport and Aviation Deals in Brussels

Europe

SITUATION REPORTS

EU, Turkey: Brussels Sends High-Level Delegation to Ankara for Wide-Ranging Talks

Monaco: Attempted Assassination Targets Ukrainian-Born Tycoon

U.K.: Starmer Presents Defense Investment Plan to Boost Spending Over Four Years

U.K.: Burnham Proposes Massive Rebalancing of Power

EU: Commission Drafts Plan To Grant Candidates Economic Benefits Before Accession

Ukraine, EU: EU Loan Anchors Gdansk Recovery Conference Amid Poland-Ukraine Row

EU, U.S.: EU Formally Adopts Trade Agreement With U.S.

Kazakhstan, EU: Tokayev Secures Transport and Aviation Deals in Brussels

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