<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is a study in diversity. Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, the region is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources. It&rsquo;s no surprise that it captured the imagination of Europe&rsquo;s earliest explorers &mdash; and that it continues to capture the imagination of current world powers eager to exploit it. And yet despite the region&rsquo;s diversity, Sub-Saharan African countries have common challenges &mdash; transnational terrorism, rapid population growth, endemic poverty and corruption &mdash; that prevent them from capitalizing on their economic potential. The coming years will be critical for the region, especially as its political institutions mature in a rapidly globalizing world.</p>

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan

Angola

Benin

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cameroon

Cabo Verde

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Djibouti

Equatorial Guinea

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Gabon

Gambia

Ghana

Guinea

Guinea Bissau

Kenya

Lesotho

Liberia

Madagascar

Malawi

Mali

Mauritania

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Sao Tome and Principe

Senegal

Seychelles

Sierra Leone

Somalia

South Africa

Sudan

Eswatini

Tanzania

Togo

Uganda

Zambia

Zimbabwe

The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

The Politics of Pipelines

Old Leaders in a New Africa

Nigeria: Obstacles to Prosperity

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

Crossing Borders

A Crude Recovery

Globalization

China in Transition

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

Assessments

A Rwandan policeman (R) and a Rwandan soldier (L) guard TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project in Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique, on Sept. 29, 2022.

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

Mozambique's LNG projects will likely progress in 2026 amid a safer security environment, but the economic windfall remains years away.

Mozambique's LNG Sector Turns a Corner Amid Megaproject Reboot

United States

Structures destroyed in U.S. strikes on jihadist targets in Offa, Nigeria, are seen on Dec. 27, 2025.

New U.S. military action would most likely target jihadist groups, especially in West Africa, but limited strikes in Sudan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo to force belligerents there to de-escalate also cannot be ruled out.

The Outlook for New U.S. Strikes in Africa

Egypt

Israel

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Politics

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

A column of Tanzanian soldiers drives past electoral posters of incumbent Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Zanzibar President Hussein Ali Mwinyi in Stone Town on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The Tanzanian government's harsh repression of opposition voices will maintain risks of civil unrest and siphon security forces away from outer regions, creating power vacuums in the south for jihadists to exploit.

Ongoing Repression in Tanzania Shows No Signs of Letting Up

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Greenland

Iran

China

Taiwan

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Canada

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark. Ukraine security talks and a Gaza peace plan will be in the spotlight at Davos.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Supporters of National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate and opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, gather to attend a campaign rally in Kampala, on Nov. 24, 2025. 

President Museveni's expected reelection is set to trigger opposition protests, but a heavy-handed crackdown will likely restore order within weeks, enabling him to resume focus on infrastructure projects and mitigating intra-elite tensions.

Previewing Uganda's General Elections

Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026. 

The Gulf nations' growing battle for influence is straining bilateral ties and fueling proxy conflicts in places like Yemen and Sudan, though both sides will likely avoid any escalation that could harm their economies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Israel-Hamas Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu signed the Electoral Act Amendment bill 2026 into law, formalizing revisions to the country's electoral framework ahead of the 2027 general election, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 19. 

Nigeria: President Signs Controversial Electoral Law

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu signed an executive order on Feb. 13 directing all oil and gas entitlements owed to the Nigerian government to be directly paid into the country's Federation Account as opposed to some of these funds being directed to state-owned companies and government agencies, Reuters reported on Feb. 19.

Nigeria: President Tinubu Directs All Hydrocarbon Revenue to Federation Account 

United Kingdom

U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his opposition to the United Kingdom handing over the island of Diego Garcia, located in the Chagos Archipelago, to Mauritius in a Truth Social post, where he said that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer "should not lose control, for any reason, of Diego Garcia," Reuters reported on Feb. 18.

Mauritius, U.K.: Trump Reiterates Opposition to Chagos Island Deal, Contradicting the State Department

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed welcomed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Addis Ababa for a state visit, following which the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding to strengthen bilateral energy cooperation, CNBC Africa reported on Feb. 18. 

Ethiopia: Abiy Meets Erdogan Amid Major Military Buildup Near Tigray

Algeria

During a meeting with Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Nigerien junta leader Abdourahamane Tchiani vowed to initiate a "new dynamic" with Algeria and strengthen bilateral ties, Jeune Afrique reported on Feb. 17.

Niger, Algeria: Countries Relaunch Trans-Saharan Pipeline Plans Despite Jihadist Expansion

The United States has deployed approximately 100 of the planned 200 troops to Nigeria's northeastern Bauchi state at the reported request of the Nigerian government, Al Jazeera reported on Feb. 16.

Nigeria: Around 100 U.S. Troops Arrive in Northeastern State

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said in his Feb. 12 State of the Nation address that the government is committed to creating a fully independent state-owned transmission entity, which would own and operate the country's electricity grid and manage the electricity market.

South Africa: Ramaphosa Scraps Revised Eskom Reform Breakup Plan

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Rwandan‑backed M23 rebel group have reached a breakthrough with a ceasefire proposal brokered by Angola, set to take effect on Feb. 18, Radio Okapi reported on Feb 13.

Congo: Congolese Government and M23 Reach Breakthrough Ceasefire Agreement

Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Nigeria: President Signs Controversial Electoral Law

Nigeria: President Tinubu Directs All Hydrocarbon Revenue to Federation Account

Mauritius, U.K.: Trump Reiterates Opposition to Chagos Island Deal, Contradicting the State Department

Ethiopia: Abiy Meets Erdogan Amid Major Military Buildup Near Tigray

Niger, Algeria: Countries Relaunch Trans-Saharan Pipeline Plans Despite Jihadist Expansion

Nigeria: Around 100 U.S. Troops Arrive in Northeastern State

South Africa: Ramaphosa Scraps Revised Eskom Reform Breakup Plan

Congo: Congolese Government and M23 Reach Breakthrough Ceasefire Agreement

Forecasts

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