<p>The Middle East and North Africa is the world&#39;s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran &mdash; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers &mdash; and their competition for influence over the region&#39;s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability.</p>

The Middle East and North Africa encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between.

Middle East and North Africa

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The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Saudi Survival Strategy

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Iran's Arc of Influence

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The Difficulties of North African Reform

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The Battle for Mosul

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Which Sub-Saharan countries face the highest risk of protests and unrest in the coming months?

The Decision Advantage: The Outlook for Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Armed Yemeni supporters of the Iran-backed Houthi movement brandish their weapons during a protest against U.S. strikes on Iran in Sanaa on July 10, 2026. 

Military & Security

The attacks do not necessarily signal an immediate return to a full-scale war between the Saudis and the Houthis or a reignition of Yemen's civil conflict, but the likelihood of more frequent flare-ups in both theaters is increasing.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis Exchange Airstrikes, Breaking Yearslong Unofficial Truce

People gather by the rubble of destroyed buildings following an Israeli strike on an industrial area in Gaza City on July 12.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Hamas will likely continue to reject full disarmament in the hope that a more moderate Israeli government will come to power following elections in the fall.


Unfeasible Plans for Gaza Governance Hinder Progress of U.S-Backed Ceasefire 

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ASEAN leaders hold hands for a group photo during the opening ceremony of the 48th ASEAN summit in Cebu, central Philippines on May 8, 2026. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Tensions Remain High, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet With Myanmar

People pass a large banner depicting U.S. President Donald Trump with a target on his head, during funeral ceremonies for Iran's slain Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at the Grand Mosalla on July 5 in Tehran, Iran. 

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Recent tit-for-tat strikes between the United States and Iran signal the rising risk of a return to high-intensity regional conflict following the June 17 memorandum of understanding.


U.S.-Iran Truce at Risk of Collapse Over Hormuz Control Dispute

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

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The state-owned OCP Group is accelerating domestic green ammonia projects and diversifying sulfur suppliers to secure its position as a dominant agricultural and diplomatic partner across sub-Saharan Africa.

Morocco, World's Leading Phosphate Exporter, Seeks To Mitigate Strategic Vulnerabilities

Billboards are seen ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, on June 26, 2026.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Recent U.S. military drawdowns in Germany and threatened reductions in Italy and Spain underscore the stakes of the summit on July 7-8.

Transatlantic Tensions Set To Dominate NATO Summit in Ankara

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Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Third-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Sudan

Sudan's de facto leader and army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, waves to spectators after attending a soccer match at Kober Stadium in Khartoum on May 15, 2026.

The outbreak of the Iran war has redirected Western and Arab diplomatic attention away from Sudan, worsening the country's long-running civil war.

Humanitarian Disaster Looms in Sudan as RSF Prepares New Offensive

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A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

A statement from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said, "The export of oil and gas from the region will be either for everyone or for no one" after the United States reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports on July 14, AP reported on July 15.

U.S., Iran: Iran Threatens Wider Disruptions to Regional Energy Exports Following U.S. Blockade

On July 15, the Israeli Supreme Court froze the implementation of a law passed on July 14 that banned the arrest of ultra-Orthodox draft dodgers and suspended criminal proceedings against those already arrested until January 2027, The Times of Israel reported the same day.

Israel: Supreme Court Freezes Ultra-Orthodox Draft Exemption Law After Passage

U.S. President Donald Trump notified lawmakers on July 10 that the United States had started military operations against Iran, Politico reported on July 13, while U.S.-Iran clashes continued on July 14.

U.S., Iran: Trump Notifies Congress of Military Operations, U.S.-Iran Clashes Continue

In a Truth Social post on July 13, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States was reimposing a blockade on Iranian ports and would take a 20% fee from cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S., Iran: Trump Reimposes Blockade on Iran

Saudi Arabia struck the runway of Yemen's Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport to prevent an Iranian civilian plane carrying a Houthi delegation from landing, AP reported on July 13.

Yemen, Saudi Arabia: Saudis Strike Sanaa Airport, Houthis Vow Retaliation

U.S.-Iran technical negotiations are set to continue despite both sides trading fire on July 8-9, Bloomberg reported on July 10, citing an unnamed U.S. official.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Official Claims Iran Negotiations Will Continue Despite Renewed Clashes

Burkina Faso

Togo

Togo is reportedly undertaking a major overhaul of its counterinsurgency strategy to combat the growing threat posed by al Qaeda-affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, along its border with Burkina Faso, including the construction of trenches stretching for several hundred kilometers across vulnerable sections of the northern border, the establishment of new forward operating bases, and reinforced military deployments in the Savanes region, Jeune Afrique reported on July 9.

Togo: Government Strengthens Counterterrorism Strategy, Deepens Security Cooperation With Turkey

The United States and Iran conducted tit-for-tat attacks for the second consecutive day, during which the United States targeted 90 Iranian military sites, the Ogtay Khan railway bridge and the perimeter of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, Reuters reported on July 9.

U.S., Iran: Attacks Gradually Escalate and Continue Into Second Day

Middle East and North Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Iran: Iran Threatens Wider Disruptions to Regional Energy Exports Following U.S. Blockade

Israel: Supreme Court Freezes Ultra-Orthodox Draft Exemption Law After Passage

U.S., Iran: Trump Notifies Congress of Military Operations, U.S.-Iran Clashes Continue

U.S., Iran: Trump Reimposes Blockade on Iran

Yemen, Saudi Arabia: Saudis Strike Sanaa Airport, Houthis Vow Retaliation

U.S., Iran: U.S. Official Claims Iran Negotiations Will Continue Despite Renewed Clashes

Togo: Government Strengthens Counterterrorism Strategy, Deepens Security Cooperation With Turkey

U.S., Iran: Attacks Gradually Escalate and Continue Into Second Day

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