<p>The Middle East and North Africa is the world&#39;s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran &mdash; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers &mdash; and their competition for influence over the region&#39;s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability.</p>

The Middle East and North Africa encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between.

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Palestinians on Oct. 10 on Al-Rashid road headed toward Gaza City. U.S. President Donald Trump said he might visit the Middle East just as 20 hostages are meant to be released by Hamas after surviving two years in captivity as the White House pushes for the solidification of a frail ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Tries To Solidify the Gaza Ceasefire, a Presidential Vote in Cameroon

Snapshots

People react at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv on Oct. 9, 2025, following news of a new Gaza ceasefire deal.

Violence in Gaza will almost certainly decrease as both Israel and Hamas are pressured to comply with the first phase of the ceasefire, keeping the truce intact in the coming days and possibly weeks.

After Two Years of War, a Permanent Gaza Ceasefire?

Demonstrators lift banners during a youth-led protest demanding reforms to public healthcare and education in Casablanca, Morocco, on Oct. 6, 2025.

Economics

The government will likely make some, mostly symbolic, concessions to the youth-led protest movement, which already appears to be weakening, but ongoing grievances related to economic inequality will sustain the risk of future mass protests.

Moroccans' Socioeconomic Grievances Will Persist, Even if Current Gen Z Protests Abate

Columns

On Geopolitics

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Tajikistan

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Georgia

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The assembly hall of the Syrian parliament Oct. 1 in Damascus. An Oct. 5 indirect election for parliament will mark the first time Syrians have had an electoral say in their government since the 1960s.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan's Election, Syria's Political Transition

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks to U.S. and Qatari military personnel at the Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar, on May 15, 2025.

The U.S. president's pledge to defend Qatar may deter future Israeli attacks, but it is unlikely to deter Iranian aggression or allay Gulf states' greater concerns about Washington's commitment to their security.

Trump's Security Guarantees for Qatar Unlikely To Offer Enough Reassurance

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

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Forecast Webcast

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

China

The U.N. Security Council holds a meeting on Iran at the U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, on Sept. 19, 2025. 

Energy

The increased isolation will make Iran more reliant on China and Russia, while the added economic strain could fuel domestic protests and empower Iranian hard-liners calling for more aggressive action against the West.

U.N. Sanctions Snapback: What's Next for Iran?

U.S.-Iran Relations

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Around 200 U.S. troops will oversee the implementation of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire, although reports conflict over whether these troops will be stationed in Egypt or Israel, the BBC reported Oct. 10.

US, Israel, Palestinian Territories: 200 U.S. Troops To Monitor Gaza Ceasefire

The Syrian army and the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached a ceasefire on Oct. 7, easing tensions after clashes in the Kurdish neighborhoods of Aleppo, Reuters reported the same day.

Syria: Army and SDF Reach Ceasefire After Aleppo Clashes

Uzbekistan

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At the 12th summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Gabala, Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev called for joint military exercises in 2026, framing the bloc as a rising geopolitical force linking Central Asia and Europe, Azerbaijan State News Agency reported on Oct. 7.

Azerbaijan: Aliyev Calls for Joint Military Drills Under the Organization of Turkic States

Indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel began in Egypt, with some, including Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, expressing optimism about the progress of discussions, The Guardian reported on Oct. 6. 

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Latest Ceasefire Negotiations Begin Ahead of Two-Year Gaza War Anniversary

The preliminary results of Syria's Oct. 5 indirect parliamentary elections show that women and ethnic/religious minorities only won around 15 of 119 seats on the ballot, indicating that the legislature will be overwhelmingly dominated by Sunni men, Reuters reported Oct. 6.

Syria: First Results From Parliamentary Election Show Limited Representation for Women, Minorities

Hamas agreed to certain parts of the U.S.-backed proposal to end the war with Israel in Gaza, including the release of all Israeli hostages and the exchange of prisoners, as well as the formation of a post-Hamas government for Gaza, BBC reported on Oct. 3. 

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Announces Partial Agreement to U.S.-Backed Peace Proposal

Italy

Israel's navy intercepted 40 of the 47 ships of the so-called Global Sumud Flotilla and prepared to deport hundreds of the activists onboard, who were attempting to bring aid to Palestinians in Gaza, Reuters reported on Oct. 2.

Israel, Gaza: Aid Flotilla Intercepted, Italian Unions Call Solidarity Strike

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro ended a free trade agreement with Israel and expelled all Israeli diplomats from Bogota, El Pais reported on Oct. 1. 

Colombia, Israel: Colombia Ends FTA and Breaks Diplomatic Ties With Israel

Middle East and North Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

US, Israel, Palestinian Territories: 200 U.S. Troops To Monitor Gaza Ceasefire

Syria: Army and SDF Reach Ceasefire After Aleppo Clashes

Azerbaijan: Aliyev Calls for Joint Military Drills Under the Organization of Turkic States

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Latest Ceasefire Negotiations Begin Ahead of Two-Year Gaza War Anniversary

Syria: First Results From Parliamentary Election Show Limited Representation for Women, Minorities

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Announces Partial Agreement to U.S.-Backed Peace Proposal

Israel, Gaza: Aid Flotilla Intercepted, Italian Unions Call Solidarity Strike

Colombia, Israel: Colombia Ends FTA and Breaks Diplomatic Ties With Israel

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