<p>The Middle East and North Africa is the world&#39;s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran &mdash; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers &mdash; and their competition for influence over the region&#39;s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability.</p>

The Middle East and North Africa encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between.

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Libya

Morocco

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Western Sahara

Yemen

The Syrian Civil War

The Yemen Civil War

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Saudi Survival Strategy

The Kurdish Struggle

Iran's Arc of Influence

Israel's Survival Strategy

The Difficulties of North African Reform

Egypt's Uphill Battle

The Battle for Mosul

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

Cyber

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Tunisia's President Kais Saied (top-R) waits to take his oath of office during his swearing-in ceremony before the National Assembly in Tunis on Oct. 21, 2024. 

Despite tensions with union leaders, Tunisia's controversial finance bill will introduce reforms that attract foreign investment and increase production in key sectors.

Strikes Loom as Tunisia's Government Undermines Labor Union

United States

Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.

If effective, the laser air defense system will significantly reduce the cost of intercepting short-range aerial threats and bolster Israel's multilayered protection against aerial attacks.


The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture

Jordanian police close the entrance of a Muslim Brotherhood headquarters on April 23, 2025, in Amman, Jordan.

While the White House has initiated a review process to label the Muslim Brotherhood a Foreign Terrorist Organization, it is unlikely to result in a comprehensive ban on the group.

U.S. Unlikely To Broadly Designate Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization

Palestinian Hamas militants stand guard as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp, in the northern Gaza Strip, on Dec. 1, 2025.

The shift toward a low-intensity conflict in the Gaza Strip will likely enable Israel to keep pressuring Hamas to disarm without triggering significant backlash or a resumption of Houthi maritime attacks.

Israel Moves Toward a De Facto Partition of Gaza

Snapshots

Somalia

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

A photograph taken from the Israeli side of the border with southern Lebanon shows U.N. peacekeepers clearing landmines on Nov. 19, 2025. 

Rare direct talks between the neighboring adversaries will probably continue despite Hezbollah's objections, but Israel's likely refusal to offer meaningful concessions will sustain a high risk of renewed conflict in the coming months.

Lebanon-Israel Talks Are Unlikely To Pave the Way for Peace

Columns

On Geopolitics

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

Iraqi riot police walk past a screen displaying a portrait of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during celebrations by his supporters following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The Nov. 11 elections produced another fragmented legislature where Iranian-backed parties still have significant influence, portending contentious government formation talks that could impede policymaking and trigger armed clashes.

Iraq Braces for Another Turbulent Government Formation Process

Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut. Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires.

Miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would, however, increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting. 

Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold

Burkina Faso

Mali

Laos

The Trump administration expanded its travel ban to include full restrictions on several sub-Saharan African countries, including Mali and Burkina Faso, Laos, Syria and individuals with Palestinian Authority-issued passports, as well as partial restrictions on several Caribbean and other African countries, the White House announced on Dec. 16.

U.S.: Trump Expands Travel Ban, Effective Jan. 1

Sudan

Sudan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, backed by the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, affirmed SAF Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's "keenness" to work with U.S. President Donald Trump to resolve Sudan's civil war between the SAF and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, Al Arabiya reported on Dec. 16.

Sudan: SAF Stresses Readiness To Work With Trump To End Civil War

U.S. CENTCOM held a conference in Doha, Qatar, with some 45 countries to discuss a possible Gaza stabilization force, with U.S. officials optimistic that at least some forces could be deployed behind the so-called yellow line in Gaza under Israeli control in 2026, The Times of Israel reported on Dec. 16.

Israel, Gaza: Qatar Hosts U.S.-Led Gaza Stabilization Forum, With Little Sign of Progress

Syrian and U.S. forces launched a joint security operation targeting Islamic State sleeper cells on Dec. 14, The New Arab reported the same day.

Syria: Suspected Islamic State Gunman Attacks U.S.-Syria Patrol, Sparking Joint Security Operation

Hamas' chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, said that Israel's alleged violations risked upending the Hamas-Israel ceasefire and that Hamas' arms are a "right guaranteed by international law" in a video statement released a day after Israel assassinated a senior Hamas commander, Raed Saad, in Gaza, Al Jazeera reported Dec. 14. 

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Negotiator Rejects Disarmament After Assassination of Senior Commander 

Australia

China

Japan

Singapore

South Korea

The U.S. Trump administration plans to sign the Pax Silica Declaration with Australia, Japan, Israel, Singapore and South Korea on Dec. 12, forming a coalition designed to counter China's control of critical minerals and its growing clout in the artificial intelligence sector, Politico reported the same day.

Global: U.S., Five Others To Sign Pax Silica Declaration in a Bid To Counter China in CRMs, AI

Taiwan

Taiwan's Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu traveled to Israel on an unpublicized foreign trip earlier in December, according to Reuters sources on Dec. 11, though the sources declined to state with whom he met or what they discussed.

Taiwan, Israel: Taipei Likely Seeks Israeli Defense Support, Could Stir Chinese Retaliation 

The U.S. House voted as part of the National Defense Authorization Act of 2025-26 to repeal the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, sending it on to the Senate, where its passage looks likely, and on to President Donald Trump, who will sign it, Al Jazeera reported on Dec. 11.

U.S., Syria: Washington To Lift Caesar Sanctions on Syria

Middle East and North Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Trump Expands Travel Ban, Effective Jan. 1

Sudan: SAF Stresses Readiness To Work With Trump To End Civil War

Israel, Gaza: Qatar Hosts U.S.-Led Gaza Stabilization Forum, With Little Sign of Progress

Syria: Suspected Islamic State Gunman Attacks U.S.-Syria Patrol, Sparking Joint Security Operation

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Negotiator Rejects Disarmament After Assassination of Senior Commander

Global: U.S., Five Others To Sign Pax Silica Declaration in a Bid To Counter China in CRMs, AI

Taiwan, Israel: Taipei Likely Seeks Israeli Defense Support, Could Stir Chinese Retaliation

U.S., Syria: Washington To Lift Caesar Sanctions on Syria

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