<p>The Middle East and North Africa is the world&#39;s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran &mdash; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers &mdash; and their competition for influence over the region&#39;s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability.</p>

The Middle East and North Africa encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between.

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Libya

Morocco

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Western Sahara

Yemen

The Syrian Civil War

The Yemen Civil War

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Saudi Survival Strategy

The Kurdish Struggle

Iran's Arc of Influence

Israel's Survival Strategy

The Difficulties of North African Reform

Egypt's Uphill Battle

The Battle for Mosul

Assessments

Sudan

Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026. 

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Social Issues

The Gulf nations' growing battle for influence is straining bilateral ties and fueling proxy conflicts in places like Yemen and Sudan, though both sides will likely avoid any escalation that could harm their economies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Cyber

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

United States

Venezuela

China

North Korea

South Korea

Ukraine

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Global Trade

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Russia

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Snapshots

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Media

Podcasts

How has U.S. interest in the Middle East evolved over time? 

Essential Geopolitics: A Historical Look Back on U.S.-Middle East Relations

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

New Zealand

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.

New trade pacts offer gains in market access and investment but India's protectionist stance on agriculture and dairy remains an obstacle to deals with the United States and European Union. 


Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar visited Somaliland for the first time since Israel recognized Somaliland as an independent country on Dec. 27, 2025, Reuters reported on Jan. 6.

Israel, Somalia: Israeli Foreign Minister Conducts First Visit to Somaliland After Recognition

At least 19 protesters have been killed in Iran as of Jan. 4 as protests entered their ninth day on Jan. 5, the BBC reported the same day, citing a report by the U.S.-based nongovernmental organization Human Rights Activists in Iran.

Iran: Trump Reiterates Warnings to Iran as Protests Continue Into Ninth Day

France

Israel and Syria resumed U.S.-mediated talks in Paris on a security agreement after around two months of negotiations being frozen, Reuters reported Jan. 5. 

Syria, Israel: Syria and Israel Resume Negotiations on Security Agreement

Yemen's Saudi-backed National Shield Forces (NSF) regained control of the strategic Hadramawt province following days of armed clashes with the secessionist UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), Bloomberg reported on Jan. 5.

Yemen: Saudi-Backed Forces Retake Southern Hadramawt Province

In a Truth Social post, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States was "locked and loaded" and would intervene if Iran's government killed peaceful protesters in the current anti-government uprising affecting several Iranian cities.

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens To Intervene if Iran Kills Peaceful Protesters

The leader of Yemen's separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) announced the "beginning of a two-year transition phase" toward establishing an independent southern Yemeni state, and called for a referendum vote on self-determination, Al Jazeera reported Jan. 2.

Yemen: STC Announces 'Two-Year Transition Phase' in Push for an Independent Southern State

Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said that Turkey will dispatch an oil exploration vessel off the coast of Somalia to conduct its first deepwater exploration efforts in the country next month, without specifying where exploration works would take place, Reuters reported on Jan. 2.

Somalia: Turkey To Begin Deepwater Oil Exploration as Construction Starts on Spaceport 

Somaliland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's claim that the breakaway region would host an Israeli military base and accept resettled Palestinians, the Times of Israel reported on Jan. 1.

Somalia: Somaliland Rejects Somali Claims That It Will Host Israeli Base

Middle East and North Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Somalia: Israeli Foreign Minister Conducts First Visit to Somaliland After Recognition

Iran: Trump Reiterates Warnings to Iran as Protests Continue Into Ninth Day

Syria, Israel: Syria and Israel Resume Negotiations on Security Agreement

Yemen: Saudi-Backed Forces Retake Southern Hadramawt Province

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens To Intervene if Iran Kills Peaceful Protesters

Yemen: STC Announces 'Two-Year Transition Phase' in Push for an Independent Southern State

Somalia: Turkey To Begin Deepwater Oil Exploration as Construction Starts on Spaceport

Somalia: Somaliland Rejects Somali Claims That It Will Host Israeli Base

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